Good morning! It was a tense weekend—just before the announced new round of strikes on Iran, Trump backed down saying there’s a deal on the table. We verify this claim against the market in the Strait of Hormuz sections.

Then, we move on to Europe, where we have updates on the potential new government in Romania and a sharp repricing in the UK annual GDP market. After macro, we turn to tech—where a new Chinese model made waves across both benchmark rankings and markets.

Lastly, we take a look at The Odyssey, which is poised to be the top grossing movie of 2026.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!

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Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade Strait of Hormuz Traffic on Stand

Once again, at the last moment, Trump cancelled the announced strikes on Iran on the pretext of a deal. Negotiations are expected to take place this week, however Iran continues to partially deny it:

Notably, Iranian officials are not denying talks with Oman.

Traders see these developments as a dovish signal—chances of the strait opening by the end of September increased from 16% to 23%. It still remains unlikely given both sides’ demands.

Oil loves the news, with WTI dropping below $80 per barrel:

We’ll see this week where the new round of negotiations will lead us.

#2 Romania Comeback

Trade Next Prime Minister of Romania on Stand

Turning to Europe, the next prime minister of Romania drama continues. After a weeks-long deadlock, the president is expected to name another PM candidate imminently.

Traders see Nazare as a compromise candidate that can be acceptable to every party in the future coalition. However, there still is a possibility of an entirely new coalition forming around PSD, which keeps Grindeanu price high.

#3 Will UK GDP Print Be Hot?

Trade UK Annual GDP Growth on Stand

In finance, the UK annual GDP market repriced ahead of the Q2 number release on August 13th.

Following a strong Q1 print and a hot 3-months trailing update in May, traders expect the UK to continue to beat expectations. If that’s the case, a 1-2% annual growth is within reach.

#4 The Chinese Are Catching Up

Trade Chinese AI Model Ranking on Stand

Moving to tech, Alibaba surprised everyone with its new model, Qwen 3.8.

The surprise launch placed the Chinese model in 5th place on the text benchmark, ahead of Claude Fable. That puts China less than 6 months behind the US frontier labs.

#5 Summer Blockbuster

Trade #1 Searched Movie on Google in 2026 on Stand

Lastly, despite the initial hate, The Odyssey is the favorite to be the best movie of 2026.

Traders put it as most likely to be the #1 searched movie on Google this year, in line with current box office numbers—The Odyssey is currently ranked 5th overall in this year’s box office ranking. Have you seen it already? Let us know in the comments if you think it deserves the hype.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Welcome to The Adjacent Weekly, your Sunday rundown of everything that moved prediction markets this week and everything worth watching next week.

New York’s attorney general sued Kalshi in state court for running an illegal gambling operation, days after the Second Circuit denied Kalshi’s injunction request. Additionally, a Wisconsin federal judge handed the CFTC a loss, ruling that sports event contracts are not “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act. The industry now faces a multi-front legal war that is likely headed to the Supreme Court.

On the M&A front, Underdog was acquired by IG Group for up to $1.3 billion and Fanatics to acquired an exchange (Water Street Labs) and clearinghouse (CX Clearinghouse) from BGC, will partner on prediction markets. Robinhood reported Q2 earnings showing prediction market revenue surpassing crypto for the first time.

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The Week That Was - July 26 - August 3

#1 New York Sues Kalshi in State Court

Late Thursday night, New York’s attorney general filed suit against Kalshi in state court for allegedly “running an illegal gambling operation in New York through its prediction market platform.” The lawsuit follows the Second Circuit’s denial of Kalshi’s emergency injunction request, which cleared the path for the NY AG to pursue enforcement.

• The suit seeks injunctive relief and disgorgement under Executive Law Section 63(12)

• Prior NY actions against other platforms suggest possible Wire Act claims

• This is the state-court phase that was expected after the federal appeals court loss

#2 Wisconsin Federal Court Denies CFTC Injunction

A Wisconsin federal judge denied the CFTC’s motion for a preliminary injunction against state enforcement of gambling laws on sports event contracts. The court held that sports event contracts are not “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act, and even if they were, the CFTC is unlikely to prevail on preemption.

• Related suits against Kalshi, Polymarket, and other platforms are expected to be remanded to state court

• A telephone hearing is scheduled for August 25 in the CFTC lawsuit against Wisconsin

• The Sixth Circuit (Kalshi vs. Ohio) also held oral arguments this week. The industry now faces adverse rulings in multiple federal circuits, increasing the likelihood of a Supreme Court showdown.

#3 Underdog Acquired by IG Group for Up to $1.3 Billion

Underdog, one of the fastest-growing prediction market platforms, was acquired by IG Group for up to $1.3 billion, with up to $850 million for eligible Underdog employees. Underdog had recently launched its own exchange (UDX) and was posting volume numbers that exceeded long-established competitors.

• This is the first major >$1b M&A exit in the prediction market space

• Underdog had raised venture funding and bought/built an in-house exchange (UDX/Aristotle Exchange) that exceeded ForecastEx and DKeX volume within 10 days of launch

• IG Group is a UK-based trading platform, bringing international capital into the US prediction market ecosystem

#4 Robinhood Q2: Prediction Markets Beat Crypto

Robinhood reported Q2 earnings on Wednesday. Event contract revenue reached $156 million for the quarter, surpassing crypto trading revenue of approximately $100 million for the first time. Robinhood now has nearly 2 million prediction market customers.

• Rothera accounted for $17 million of event contract revenue

• Rothera has rapidly become a top-3 DCM in the US

• 13.6 billion event contracts traded in Q2, including 6.4 billion in June alone

• CEO Vlad Tenev indicated Robinhood is in conversations with the CFTC about offering perpetuals in the US

• Robinhood plans to push more flow through Rothera while maintaining relationships with Kalshi and other exchanges

#5 CBOE Q2: Record Revenue, Event Contracts Called Out as Growth Driver

CBOE Global Markets reported Q2 2026 results on Friday morning. Diluted EPS of $3.35, up 50% year-over-year. Record net revenue of $731.6 million, up 25%. CBOE raised its 2026 organic total net revenue growth target to “mid to high teens” from “low double-digit to mid teens.”

• Options segment net revenue: $473.9 million, up 30%

• CEO Craig Donohue specifically called out “expanding event contracts” as a growth priority alongside Cboe Clear U.S. and around-the-clock market access

• North American Equities revenue: $114.7 million, up 17%

• CBOE is the only prediction market-adjacent stock that is green YTD (+19.5%)

#6 Coinbase Q2: Revenue Miss, $359M Net Loss

Coinbase reported Q2 results Thursday after close. Revenue of $1.22 billion missed analyst estimates of $1.30 billion, an 18.5% year-over-year decline. GAAP loss of $1.36 per share was significantly worse than the expected -$0.42 loss.

• Net loss of $359 million

• Adjusted EBITDA of $207.8 million missed estimates of $301.7 million

• Free cash flow margin of 16.2%, down from prior quarters

• Stock dropped 5.3% in after-hours trading to $154.89

• Coinbase has been expanding into prediction markets via its Kalshi partnership and acquired prediction market startup Clearing Company in December 2025

#7 Apple and Amazon Report After Close

Apple reported Q3 FY2026 results Thursday after close. Revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16% year-over-year, beating estimates of $108.2 billion. EPS of $2.02 vs estimates of $1.89. iPhone revenue $54.25 billion beat estimates. Services revenue $30.74 billion slightly missed. This is Tim Cook’s last earnings report as CEO.

Amazon reported Q2 results Thursday after close. Revenue of $200.6 billion beat estimates of $196.5 billion. EPS of $5.75 far exceeded the expected $1.82. AWS grew 37% year-over-year. Amazon hiked its 2026 capex guidance to $220 billion due to higher memory costs. Operating income was $27.5 billion, up 43% year-over-year.

#8 CFTC Comment Period Closes With 1,400+ Submissions

The CFTC’s public comment period on proposed rules for event contracts closed with more than 1,400 submissions, up from roughly 130 the day before the deadline.

• 44 states argued the CFTC lacks authority over sports prediction markets

• The NCAA urged a ban on individual student-athlete event contracts

• The NBA and MLB said the proposal falls short on integrity protections

• Players associations for NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, and MLS called for a complete prohibition on contracts manipulable by a single person

• The NBA also asked for a minimum trading age of 21 for sports event contracts

#9 NY Mets Become First MLB Team to Partner With a Prediction Market

The New York Mets became the first MLB team to partner with a prediction market platform, partnering with Novig. This follows the pattern of prediction market platforms expanding into sports-adjacent partnerships as the regulatory landscape evolves.

#10 Clarity Act Running Out of Legislative Time

The Clarity Act needs a Senate vote before August recess. Kalshi’s market for a vote by August 8 is pricing only 28% YES. Polymarket’s broader “Clarity Act signed into law in 2026” is at 22%, down from 55% earlier in the week. The legislative window is narrowing as the ethics clause debate continues.

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Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

The Week Ahead Calendar- August 3-9

Monday

• ISM Manufacturing: Odds of 51-52 are priced at 43% on Polymarket

Tuesday

• JOLTS Job Openings: Polymarket traders are pricing 49% chance number comes in between 7.4M-7.6M

• Earnings from UBER (87% odds), AMD (91% odds), LLY (73% odds)

• Primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia, and Washington

Wednesday

• ISM Services: Polymarket sees 43% odds on 54-55 range

• Earnings from DIS (89% odds), CVS (89% odds)

Thursday

• Initial Jobless Claims: Kalshi has at least 200,000 trading at 72%

• Earnings from DASH (21% odds), APP (85% odds)

• Primaries in Tennessee

Friday

• Nonfarm Payrolls: Kalshi trades see 52% chance print is above 80,000

Saturday

• Primaries in Hawaii

Prediction Markets to Watch

• Fed Decision in September after a 9-3 split in July with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point rate hike

• With continued concerns around sections of the Clarity Act and relentless pushing from Coinbase, Robinhood, SoFi, BlackRock, etc. it is unlikely to be voted on in the Senate prior to the August recess after being passed for over a year in the House

• Continued onslaught of states and regulators suing individual platforms and CFTC advisory on self-certification

The guidance reiterates that broad, template-style certifications should not be submitted. It also explains when closely related event contracts may be certified as a class or submitted for approval under Commission Regulations §§ 40.2(d) or 40.3.

Both a law and the “SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?” are top of mind (though thinly traded)

• More or less decided that it was not sold to Citadel in this profile of Leopold and SALP but interesting to watch throughout the month as they get back on their feet

• Republican Rep. Max Miller (OH-07), who has been accused of domestic violence by his ex-wife, says he will make a “special announcement” tomorrow at 10am ET.

Regulation and Industry News

• New York AG sued Kalshi in state court for running an illegal gambling operation

• Wisconsin federal court denied CFTC preliminary injunction, August 25 hearing scheduled

• Sixth Circuit held oral arguments in Kalshi vs. Ohio

• CFTC comment period closed with 1,400+ submissions from states, leagues, and players associations, including both NFL and NBA

• Underdog acquired by IG Group for up to $1.3 billion

• Fanatics to Acquire Exchange and Clearinghouse from BGC (Water Street Labs and CX Clearinghouse); Parties to Partner on Prediction Markets

• CME Group announced partnership with FutureSports to launch futures on sports performance indices

• Polymarket launched the Polymarket Institute for academic research on prediction markets

• Binance US plans to apply for CFTC DCM license next month to offer prediction markets

• New Jersey received extension through September 3 for SCOTUS petition in Kalshi case

• Kalshi CEO responded to Minnesota governor on insider trading concerns

• Bloomberg reported $294 million in trader losses on Kalshi parlay-style combination contracts; Kalshi disputed the analysis

• NEXTPredict conference organizers used Kalshi to hedge $3 million in attendance risk for $12,000 premium

• Eventual News launched as a prediction market media company backed by LightShed, in partnership with Polymarket

• Polymarket launches new market related to the massive blowup of Situational Awareness

• CFTC orders George Santos to Pay $35,000 for Manipulative Trading of State-of-the-Union Event Contract

Resolution and Disputes

Mention market traders were not happy with the resolution on the What companies will Trump say in July market when it resolved Yes after Trump’s birthday message to Alexis “de” Tocqueville. Remarkably, this was counted as the ticker symbol for John Deere, DE.

In sports, the Giants vs Angels game threw traders for a loop when two scores were reported, causing series pain for bonders.

The Index Tracker

This week we highlight the new battleground indices. SENBGD closed at 127.85 reflecting the strength of the Democrats in the Senate battleground states. Republicans improved their hold on the House battleground states with HOUBGR closing at 105.52, up 1.60% for the week.

Interview of the Week

Stu at Predictable sat down with the legendary Scottilicious, a well known trader on Polymarket who has made more than $1.5 million trading prediction markets.

Final Word

The big question for next week, how will primaries in five key states impact the midterms?

On the regulatory front, the NY lawsuit against Kalshi is the story that will define the industry’s trajectory. If Kalshi is forced to exit New York, platforms that have both gaming licenses and operate prediction market exchange like DraftKings and FanDuel are put in an even more interesting spot. If Kalshi wins in state court or gets a stay, the expansion continues. Either way, this is heading to the Supreme Court

We will be back next Sunday with another roundup. For daily coverage, follow Adjacent Press and the Morning Brief by PROPHET x Adjacent, published every weekday.

This is not investment or trading advice. Do your own research. These are observations about prediction market movements, not recommendations.

Good morning! It’s been an especially good day for the Middle East. Trump announced that Hamas agreed to disarm, while there were no US strikes on Iran. We cover these developments and what they mean for the region in the first two sections.

Then, we move to South Carolina, where Darline Graham is facing a tougher than expected race. For the last two markets we turn to tech and culture. We examine the chances of an imminent Gemini Pro release and look at two prospective Eurovision host cities.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade Strait of Hormuz Traffic on Stand

There were no US strikes on Iran overnight. However, the IRGC did strike Kuwait so we can expect American retaliation soon. Additionally, Iran continues to harass ships trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz:

Traders give only an 18% chance the strait will open by the end of September. Oil remains below $90 per barrel:

However, we are starting to see a real crunch in refined products:

Slowly but surely, we are starting to feel the economic impact of the Iran war.

#2 Hamas Disarmament Rumors Turn Out To Be True

Trade Hamas Disarmament on Stand

But there’s some good news. Trump announced that Hamas agreed to disarm.

Hamas and Israel reached a deal in which Hamas will disarm gradually, in line with Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Traders were right to treat the early rumor seriously, front-running the announcement by hours.

It’s a step towards stabilization in the region, done in cooperation with an Iranian proxy (even if by coercion).

#3 Trump’s Candidate In Danger

Trade SC Special Primary on Stand

Leaving the wars behind, we had a shocking poll on the South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary—Ralph Norman emerged as the first round winner with 22% of the vote vs Darline with 19%.

Traders expected the late Lindsey Graham’s sister to easily get the nomination after she was endorsed by Trump. Turns out she has a serious opponent, turning a boring primary into a contested race, even if the midterms election are all but decided.

#4 New Gemini Pro Is Coming

Trade Gemini Pro Release on Stand

Turning to tech, chances of a new Gemini Pro model launching soon soared after it appeared on Arena:

However, early testers claim it’s far behind the frontier models from Anthropic and OpenAI.

Google held a large lead over its competitors earlier in the year, but now are hardly in the conversation. It’s a testament to the rate of progress we see in the models. Can Google make Gemini great again?

#5 Eurovision Host City Battle

Trade Eurovision Host City on Stand

Lastly, some culture news from Europe. One trader sharply repriced the Eurovision Host City market by buying over 10,000 shares against Sofia.

Is it a degen bet—or does someone know something? Let us know what you think in the comments.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you next week for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! We are back to strikes, and this time, not only in Iran. While the Middle East is once again on fire, a Russian missile struck Poland. We cover both events in the markets section. In the Middle East, we also take a look at the Hamas disarmament market as there are some rumors that the group might agree to disarm.

Then we turn our heads towards Cuba—seeing how stretched the US military is, traders sharply adjusted their forecast on the future of the regime there.

Lastly, we dive into the latest Polymarket dispute, where some traders believe a US anti-cartel operation took place in Ecuador.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

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The Midterms Tracker

HOUSER

In Ohio, Republican Max Miller’s odds of winning dropped from over 80% to 60% after domestic abuse allegations from his ex-wife. OH-07 is 1 of 426 House races tracked in HOUSER and HOUSED. As a result, HOUSER closed at 101.79, down -0.23% and HOUSED closed at 104.83, up +0.09%.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade Strait of Hormuz Traffic on Stand

As expected, the US went back to striking Iran—CENTCOM announced a new wave of strikes overnight:

Both sides managed to last only five days without an escalation, proving that the situation in the region remains volatile.

The Strait of Hormuz traffic markets went down on the news. Traders continue to believe that the only quick way out of this war is through diplomacy. Any kinetic escalation is a step back in that framework. Oil is back on the rise as a result with Brent breaching $90 per barrel:

#2 Is Hamas Disarming?

Trade Hamas Disarmament on Stand

Staying in the region, chance of Hamas agreeing to disarm shot up on rumors that the group might agree to transfer its heavy weapons to the Technocratic Palestinian Committee.

Reports are still unconfirmed, however, even a partial disarmament is enough to resolve the market to Yes. If that happens, it would be a major step forward in the Gaza process, which stalled recently.

#3 A Russian Missile Struck Poland

Trade Russia-NATO Clash on Stand

It has been an intense week across geopolitical markets—in Europe, a Russian missile struck Poland in the early morning hours.

It’s yet another Russian incursion, the most recent being several drones breaching Polish airspace back in September. The event comes after several heads of state warned that Russia is getting ready for a major escalation.

However, Poland is not expected to accuse Russia that the strike was deliberate. As a NATO state, this could mean an all-out war between Russia and NATO. The alliance would rather avoid it, thus traders see Poland saying that it was an accident.

#4 The Cuban Regime Proves to Be Resilient

Trade Miguel Diaz-Canel Out As Leader of Cuba by…? on Stand

Amid all the global wars, the Cuban humanitarian crisis gets little attention in the media. Partly because Cuba is proving to be more resilient than expected in the face of overstretched American forces.

The island is currently under a heavy US blockade and is effectively cut off from the outside world. However, even amid recurrent power grid collapses the country is still standing. The hard truth is that economic warfare takes time—countries don’t fall in a matter of days, weeks or even months.

Traders now see only 24% chance Miguel Diaz-Canel will be out of power by the end of the year, similar odds to the Iranian regime surviving past 2026.

#5 Unclear Anti-Cartel Ops

Trade US Anti-Cartel Ops on Stand

Lastly, a more technical subject—there’s a new dispute on the US anti-cartel operation outside of the US market:

I described the case in my recent X post and at first glance, it’s a really tough call.

Only a couple days ago we showcased this very market when one trader entered the market after misinterpreting an earlier headline—now he’s lucky enough to exit his position in profit.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! Today’s brief is filled with domestic and global politics. The recent ceasefire in the Iran war is on the brink of collapse and Iran itself was close to striking Ukraine. We cover the recent chaos in the first two sections.

We continue our tour of geopolitical markets with the US-Cuba economic deal, which recently spiked—we found the news that caused the move. Then we turn our heads to the Fed as today is the big day and markets are still unsure of the decision.

Lastly, we take a look at Congress, where Clarity Act faces mounting problems.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

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The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED moved to 96.5 following the addition of new constituents to the HOUSE indices.

Senate

SENR is once again stable in 100-101 range. It. is likely that the recent escalation in the Iran war pushed oil higher and GOP Senate chances lower!

House

After the new additions, HOUSER is pretty much aligned with SENR—let’s see how the index will behave next week.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade Strait of Hormuz Traffic on Stand

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. Of course, some traffic goes through, but barely—Iran just shot at three tankers trying to cross the strait. Short-term traffic normalization markets dipped on the news. The end of year market stayed flat at 56%, hardly an optimistic forecast.

Overnight we also had joint Saudi-American strikes on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. Iran retaliated by sending missiles at Jordan. With tensions sky-high between the Saudis and the Houthis, you could say we are at the brink of an all-out war. However, traders still see some hope:

Trade US-Iran Effective Ceasefire on Stand

America is yet to strike Iran directly and traders give a 36% it will stay that way for the next nine days.

Oil seems to share the optimism with Brent below $90 per barrel:

#2 Can the Two Wars Merge?

Trade Iran to Target Ukraine on Stand

Staying on the topic, after Ukraine struck an Iranian vessel on the Caspian Sea, killing one sailor, Iran reportedly decided not to retaliate.

However, it seems that it wasn’t easy—rumors are that there was a feverish diplomatic effort to prevent Iran from responding. Thankfully, it also had another effect—traders now see little chance Ukraine will continue to strike Iranian targets:

Trade Ukraine Strike Another Tanker in the Caspian on Stand

#3 No Deal

Trade US-Cuba Economic Deal on Stand

Amid all the Iran war chatter, traders missed an important development in the Western Hemisphere. The State Department published a 99-page report on Cuban influence on American society and politics:

The report echoes Trump’s recent warnings about a renewed communist influence in the region.

Traders who noticed interpreted this as a sign that America is not looking for another Venezuela-style regime change. Rather, they are looking to properly take over Cuba. Chances of a deal collapsed from 45% down to 20%.

#4 FOMC Day

Trade Fed Decision on Stand

Back in America, all eyes are on Kevin Warsh. Today we will know if the Fed chair surprises everyone and hikes. Prediction markets are not sure of the decision for the first time in many months, giving a hike 21% chance.

Traditional finance is no different—FedWatch gives 35.8% chance of a hike hours before the meeting:

Today’s decision should provide the clearest indication yet of Warsh’s policy preferences. And maybe it will make some lucky traders rich.

#5 Clarity Act in Trouble

Trade Clarity Act on Stand

Lastly, we turn towards Congress. The Clarity Act market spiked recently on the news that Russian sanctions package gets priority.

Senators remain divided over the ethics clause. Trump’s compromise is not enough for them. However, some Democrats can benefit from crypto industry donors if they agree to push the legislation through. While the odds got longer, the Clarity Act is still alive.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! Today is a big day at the White House—Trump is hosting both Zelensky and Netanyahu as both leaders arrived in the US for Lindsey Graham’s funeral. He is expected to discuss both wars with the respective leaders. We dive deeper into the war topics in the first two market segments.

Staying in global affairs, we also take a look at the US anti-cartel operation market that experienced an unusual spike overnight. After a bit of research, we found the main culprit.

We then preview this week’s Fed decision before ending with an update on the new Claude Opus 5.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

Subscribe now

The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED moved to 96.5 following the addition of new constituents to the HOUSE indices.

Senate

SENR is back on the rise, slowly approaching 101 points.

House

After the new additions, HOUSER is pretty much aligned with SENR—let’s see how the index will behave next week.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade Strait of Hormuz Traffic on Stand

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. While there are ongoing discussions between Iran and Oman to open up the waterway, they remain at a preliminary stage. Traders kept the long-term forecast flat. However, the short-term end of August market is down to 13c as we approach the resolution date with no change in sight.

The pause in hostilities between the US and Iran still holds, but Saudi Arabia (mainly Saudi Aramco) is being attacked by the Houthis on a daily basis:

I expected to see oil react strongly to the news and that’s why I’m a prediction markets trader—oil is down several percent since the news broke:

#2 Busy Day at the White House

Trade Netanyahu Out on Stand

Staying with global affairs, Netanyahu is visiting Trump today. He is attending Lindsey Graham’s funeral and took the opportunity to earn some political capital domestically.

I told you here that the meeting drama was overblown by the mainstream media—after all they are at war together. I expect them to appear for a nice photo-op and discuss the latest developments in the Iran war.

Zelensky is also visiting Trump today—Lindsey Graham’s funeral attracts plenty of important people. Both leaders, however, will meet separately. While I expect some news out of the Netanyahu meeting, I don’t see high chances of any meaningful progress regarding the Ukraine war.

#3 The Anti-Cartel Market Misfire

Trade US anti-cartel operations on Stand

In the Western Hemisphere, one trader moved the price on the US anti-cartel operation from 3c up to more than 75c for a brief moment.

All based on a single headline: Janero Van DeMario Garrett—a 49-year-old Michigan fugitive allegedly tied to Los Chapitos (Sinaloa Cartel), arrested July 17 in Mazatlán in a joint DEA Detroit / DEA-Mexico / US Marshals Mexico / FBI operation. However, shortly after the news dropped it turned out that the US officials were not directly involved in the arrest.

This a cautionary tale to not fast click too fast.

#4 Will He Hike?

Trade Fed Hike on Stand

Turning to macro markets, this week we have a FOMC meeting that can result in a rate hike. Kevin Warsh, the new chair, no longer issues forward guidance and is not keen on leaking the decision ahead of time—the former Fed oracle, Nick Timiraos, is as clueless as anyone when it comes to the upcoming meeting.

Traders, on the other hand, give now 26% chance we will see a hike this week. And they see 74% chance of a hike by October. CME FedWatch is even more hawkish, giving over 33% chance of a hike:

Between the Iran war and stubborn inflation, he might not have another choice.

#5 The Two Sides of the New Opus

Trade Claude Opus Performance on Stand

Lastly, we have another update on the Claude Opus 5.

The model continues to top the leaderboard on the main benchmarks. However, people are increasingly frustrated with it (article inside the tweet):

Claude Opus 5 is not intuitive to use and often behaves differently to what Claude users are used to.

As the frontier models get better, they will increasingly fall into a trap—the researchers will do their best to align the model with the benchmarks for marketing purposes, making the very benchmarks a bad tool to measure real-life performance.

What do you think about the new Opus? Let us know in the comments.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! The weekend was surprisingly calm, with both the US and Iran halting their strike campaigns. However, the Houthis kept the pressure on with strikes targeting Saudi Aramco. We cover the recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz section.

Then we move on to domestic politics as some price moves in crypto suggest we might see a breakthrough in the Clarity Act negotiations. In tech, we take a look at the new Claude Opus 5, which seems to be rather disappointing compared to its benchmark results.

Lastly, we cover a new story from Italy, where Andrea Pirlo’s path to becoming the National Team head coach was suddenly complicated by… Russia.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

Subscribe now

The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR started to fall slightly. I saw an interesting analysis showing that Senate chances are affected by rising oil prices:

We’re beginning to see that relationship reflected in SENR as well.

House

HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

Today’s charts reflect the expanded 2026 U.S. House constituent universe outlined in the production notice. The expansion affects both HOUSER and HOUSED indices, and in turn, affects the RED and BLUE composite indices.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade Strait of Hormuz Traffic on Stand

In a surprising turn of events, the US halted the strike campaign during the weekend. This administration is famous for escalating outside of the market hours. However, CENTCOM raised questions about the effectiveness of further strike campaigns and underscored the limited interceptor availability:

On the other hand, the Houthis continue to strike Saudi Arabia. We have unconfirmed reports that the Saudi Aramco Abqaiq oil processing facility was hit this morning:

Further escalation between the two sides would be a major wild card in the Iran war.

#2 Blockades Are Still On

Trade US Blockade End by…? on Stand

Despite the effective ceasefire, both sides continue to block the Strait of Hormuz. We are effectively back to the post April 7th status quo, but with more tensions in Yemen.

Traders give only 48% chance the blockade will end by the end of August—a clear indication they have limited faith in any new agreement being announced soon. Some even believe that the pause is only due to Netanyahu’s visit to the White House. Who knows? There’s already a precedent of sorts for that.

#3 Ethereum to the Moon?

Trade Ethereum Price on Stand

Moving to domestic politics, Ethereum rose over 5% over the weekend and is slowly approaching $2,000. Traders now give 75% chance we will see the psychological barrier broken by the end of the month.

Ethereum’s rise is connected to the Clarity Act. A vote on the landmark legislation is expected before the recess and just today a new draft was released:

The Clarity Act will provide a comprehensive regulatory framework for all digital assets and its passing is likely to cause a massive bull run in crypto. Is Ethereum’s price an early signal? I wouldn’t discard it.

#4 Claude Opus 5 Is Here

Trade Claude Opus Performance on Stand

Leaving politics behind, after a small hiccup, Opus 5 is live. Release notes promised us a model that is practically on par with Fable and the benchmarks delivered. Traders priced the highest bracket at only 22c just before the debut.

However, some people believe it is overfitted to the benchmarks and delivers a disappointing real-world performance:

#5 Changes In Italian Soccer

Trade the Next Italian National Team Coach on Stand

Lastly, a small surprise from the world of soccer. Italy, after failing to qualify for the recent World Cup, decided to change its head coach. Andrea Pirlo, a former Italian superstar, was widely cited to take over the position.

However, just this morning the deal collapsed due to Pirlo’s links to Russian betting sites. Pirlo traded as high as 99c to get the job—surely some bonders were caught by surprise.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! The Iran war rages on as the US completed the 13th consecutive day of strikes. We cover the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz section. Additionally, we also look at an interesting relationship between rising oil prices and the odds of Democratic sweep—a trend now showing up in SENR. Ending the politics section, we take a look at the apparent Netanyahu-Trump rift.

Then we shift focus to the Clarity Act signing chances. The legislation enters a crucial period that will determine its future. Lastly, we take a look on tech—more specifically on the new Claude Opus that never came and a possible launch of the SpaceX Starship rocket.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!

Subscribe now

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR started to fall slightly. I saw an interesting analysis showing that Senate chances are affected by rising oil prices:

We’re beginning to see that relationship reflected in SENR as well.

House

HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

Subscribe now

Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade Strait of Hormuz Traffic on Stand

The US concluded a 13th consecutive night of strikes. Iran, of course, is responding in kind and the risk of further escalation continues to rise. Trump is increasing the stakes, threatening civil infrastructure and suggesting that Israel might join in the action.

The forecast on the Strait of Hormuz traffic is unchanged. Oil, on the other hand, is converging fast with that forecast, with Brent briefly breaching $100 per barrel:

#2 Netanyahu-Trump Friendship Drama

Trade Trump meet Netanyahu by…? on Stand

While the war rages on, the media continues to push the narrative of a Netanyahu-Trump rift.

Netanyahu is reportedly struggling to get an appointment with Trump during his visit to the US for Lindsey Graham’s funeral. This time, however, traders took the rumors more seriously—chance of a meeting by the end of August cratered to just 42%.

Or maybe they think that an escalation is coming and Netanyahu will be needed at home. Our guess is the latter.

#3 Troubles Around the Clarity Act

Trade the Clarity Act Getting Signed on Stand

Turning to crypto policy, crypto markets are entering choppy waters as doubts are rising around the Clarity Act.

Republicans have to vote on the legislation before the August recess to ensure it can get signed before the midterms. September is filled with funding debates and once that’s over, we are off to the midterms.

The current debate is on the ethics clause, fueled by Trump’s recent crypto profits disclosure. Democratic support is needed to reach the 60 vote threshold, and are demanding a tighter ethics clause barring public officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets.

Each new development swings the market wildly as the legislative window narrows.

#4 No New Claude After All

Trade Claude Opus Release on Stand

In tech, yesterday ended with no new Claude Opus. However, traders still expect to see the new model soon.

And almost certainly before the end of the month—they give 81% chance we will be able to test Opus 5 by then.

#5 SpaceX Starship Launch Delayed Again

Trade Starship Launch on Stand

Lastly, the SpaceX Starship launch was delayed again.

This time, however, the weather was the main culprit. The launch was rescheduled and traders give 76% chance it will happen today. Do you expect to see any progress? Let us know in the comments.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you next week for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! Overnight, two Saudi vessels were struck by the Houthis as they were trying to cross the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Thanks to that attack, traders now see 65% chance of a Saudi military action against Yemen by the end of the month. Didn’t we have enough wars already?

Beyond hostilities, today we examine curious volatility on the Fed hike market, where traders seem to be unsure of the decision for the first time in a long while. Then we move on to tech as we see some signs that a new Claude model might drop today.

Lastly, we show another cautionary tale about rules and disputes.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!

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Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR is back to the slow upward trend, reaching 100.44 points. The index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.

House

HOUSER continues to trend down, dipping below 74 points and indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade Strait of Hormuz traffic on Stand

US strikes on Iran have continued for the 12th consecutive day. America focused on targeting southern Iran while the IRGC struck US bases across Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. By now, the Strait of Hormuz is once again effectively closed and markets now imply just a 50% chance that traffic returns to normal before year-end:

Comments from US officials, including Marco Rubio, show no signs of de-escalation.

The main oil benchmarks are reacting to the news, with Brent approaching $100 per barrel:

#2 Saudi Arabia Is In Trouble

Trade Saudi Arabia Military Action Against Yemen by…? on Stand

Tensions are also rising across the Arabian peninsula. Houthis have reportedly struck two Saudi Arabian vessels—traders increasingly see Saudi Arabia responding, with the chances of a military clash by the end of the month up to 65%.

Iranian pressure on oil transits now has a real chance of jump-starting the dormant Yemen Civil War. If that happens, we will have three active war theaters in the region.

#3 Fed Hike Sooner Than Expected?

Trade Fed Hike on Stand

Turning to macro markets, the chances of a Fed hike in July suddenly rose to 24%.

However, prediction markets remain more dovish on a hike than bond traders. The FedWatch, a legacy tool of approximating interest rate changes, sees 33% chance of a hike this month.

There is no single catalyst causing the repricing, however we all can see that the Iran war and the inflation it is causing is likely the main factor the Fed officials are observing.

#4 New Claude Opus Today?

Trade Claude Opus Release on Stand

That’s enough politics for one day. Turning to AI, we saw a curious spike in the Claude Opus release market—traders now see a 60% chance we will see a new Opus model today. AI enthusiasts spotted some signs of an imminent release, causing the spike:

If the rumors about its performance are true, we should have a model that is almost as capable as Fable 5 and considerably less expensive. Question—if Opus 5 is extremely close to Fable 5, should we get a new Mythos-class model soon?

#5 World Cup Viewership Dispute

Trade World Cup Viewership on Stand

Lastly, in a sudden reversal, US viewership of the World Cup Final was significantly lower than expected.

While the total audience has in fact breached 58 million, a weird technicality in the rules seems to have pushed a 46-50 million bracket as a correct one. Some of these markets require deep expertise, even if they might look straightforward. It’s another reminder that understanding market resolution criteria can be just as important as forecasting the outcome itself.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! It’s day 11 of non-stop strikes on Iran. However, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz seems to have stabilized—we cover the Iran war in the Strait of Hormuz section. Additionally, Trump met with the Lebanese President and announced a landmark nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia. It was a busy day in the Middle East and we have some market scoops to complement the news.

Before we move beyond war coverage, we have a segment on the recent political crisis in Ukraine, where Zelensky again proves he is a flexible politician that can get out of any trouble.

Lastly, we take a look at the SpaceX Starship launch which might get delayed again.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!

Subscribe now

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR is back to the slow upward trend, reaching 100.43 points. The index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.

House

HOUSER continues to trend down, hitting 74 points and indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade Strait of Hormuz traffic on Stand

CENTCOM announced that they completed another round of strikes, making for 11 days of consecutive exchange of fire between America and Iran.

The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market is flat and so is the effective ceasefire market:

New ceasefire proposals are being floated, but neither side seems ready to stop the strikes. However, it seems that we have avoided a wider escalation—both sides have stuck to their usual target list.

In the meantime, oil is up almost 5% over the last 24 hours with Brent hitting $95 per barrel:

#2 Fake Netanyahu-Trump Rift

Trade Trump to meet Netanyahu by…? on Stand

Back in the White House, Trump met with the President of Lebanon. However, the media tried to make a story out of another meeting that didn’t happen. The markets tell another story.

While the Netanyahu meeting by the end of July has 42% chance of happening, the chances of a meeting by the end of August are flat at 79%. Traders have little doubt they will meet and paid little attention to the fake drama.

In the end, both are in this war together.

#3 Abraham Accords On The Rise

Trade Which Countries Will Recognize Israel on Stand

Staying in the region, Saudi Arabia signed a nuclear agreement with the US.

In a landmark deal Saudi Arabia will have access to a civilian nuclear program with a possible enrichment in the country. Traders interpreted this sign as the kingdom getting closer to the west. Chances of Israel recognition by Saudi Arabia shot up on the news.

Especially after Trump said that many countries will sign Abraham Accords soon.

#4 Troubles in Ukraine

Trade The Ukraine War on Stand

Moving to Europe, Ukraine is now in the midst of a new political crisis. It all started when Zelensky fired defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov. He is widely considered as the mastermind behind the new drone-centered military strategy, however he supposedly clashed a lot with other senior officials.

After several days of protests, Zelensky changed course. He fired General Oleksandr Syrskyi instead and offered Fedorov another senior government position.

It looks like a usual game between the old guard and the new blood.

#5 SpaceX Test Flight Delayed Again?

Trade Starship Launch on Stand

Lastly, we still lack official confirmation for the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13. A few days ago the launch was delayed for the second time and Thursday was set as the go date.

However, with no news in sight, traders are starting to doubt the timeline. Currently the market gives 66% chance Starship will launch tomorrow.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! The situation in the Middle East continues to escalate. The Houthis announced that the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is now closed for Saudi Arabian vessels. In the meantime, Iran and the US continue to exchange strikes. We dive deeper into recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz section.

Domestically, Lindsey Graham’s sister is now the favorite to win the South Carolina Senate Special Primary with all the endorsements. Then we move across the pond to examine the surprises in the new Burnham Cabinet—and there are a lot of them!

Lastly, we take a last look at the World Cup, which is poised to break some records.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!

Subscribe now

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR is back to the slow upward trend, reaching 100.38 points. The index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.

House

After a short period of stabilization around 75 points, HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade Strait of Hormuz traffic on Stand

Iran and the US continue to exchange strikes as I write this brief. Targets remain unchanged and the intensity is high. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization markets continue to imply a prolonged disruption. Ceasefire markets tell a similar story:

Oil prices continue their rally, with Brent above $90 per barrel:

#2 Bab-el-Mandeb Closed?

Trade Houthis to Target Shipping by…? on Stand

On the other side of the Arabian peninsula, the Houthis have escalated the conflict announcing that the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is closed for Saudi Arabian vessels.

While this is not a full closure, traders expect the situation to escalate as the Houthis now need to deliver on their threat. The chances of the strait being effectively closed by the end of August rose to 17%:

Trade the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait Closure on Stand

#3 South Carolina Special Primary

Trade South Carolina Senate Special Primary on Stand

Moving to the midterms, Darline Graham Nordone officially entered the race with Trump’s endorsement. She’s the late Lindsey Graham’s sister and she’s currently in his seat as the interim replacement.

This year the Trump endorsed candidates performed significantly better in the primaries, making the case for Darline’s success. Traders now give her 78% chance to win the primary.

#4 The UK Cabinet Is Confirmed

Across the Atlantic, Andy Burnham was confirmed as the new Prime Minister of the UK. At the same time, he announced his new Cabinet picks, shocking some traders.

Shabana Mahmood ended up staying as the Home Secretary with John Healey confirmed as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. With Home Secretary unavailable, Wes Streeting ended up as Defense Secretary.

John Healey is a major surprise. However, he is considered to be a fiscal moderate, solving for the main problem.

Ed Miliband was the one person the market got right. He was confirmed as the Foreign Secretary while Yvette Cooper took the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care.

#5 A Massive Success

Trade World Cup Viewership on Stand

Lastly, the recent World Cup is expected to shatter the viewership records. The event was a massive success and traders now expect the US viewership alone was over 58 million.

The global records are also expected to be beaten. The only sad part is that now we need to wait four years for the next one.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! We’d love to focus on the dramatic ending of the World Cup, but the events around Iran over the weekend have our full attention. We cover the latest developments in the Middle East in the Strait of Hormuz section.

Outside of the Middle East, today’s edition focuses on elections—we had a presidential election in a small African nation as well as some interesting market moves around the Ottawa Mayoral Election.

Before wrapping up with the World Cup, we have a short segment on the potential problems around SpaceX and its flagship rocket Starship.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!

Subscribe now

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR is back to the slow upward trend, reaching 100.36 points. The index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.

House

After a short period of stabilization around 75 points, HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade Strait of Hormuz traffic on Stand

The hostilities continued over the weekend. Neither side appears ready to de-escalate, despite some attempts to arrange a ceasefire. Additionally, another American soldier was killed in Iraq, raising speculation that a ground invasion might be coming.

In the meantime, the traffic through the strait ground to a standstill. The first signs of a ceasefire made traders hopeful that we can reach some kind of normalization soon. However, chances of one are still slim:

Oil prices have finally reacted to the news, reaching over$90 per barrel of Brent:

#2 São Tomé and Príncipe Presidential Election

Trade São Tomé and Príncipe Presidential Election on Stand

Turning to election markets, we had an election in a small island country in Africa. Traders expected the incumbent Carlos Vila Nova to win and while the count is still ongoing, traders see his victory as inevitable.

Looks like even niche election markets work well!

#3 Surprise in the Ottawa Mayoral Election

Trade Ottawa Mayoral Election on Stand

Staying on the topic of elections, one trader has completely moved the order book on the Ottawa Mayoral Election market. He bought out almost the entire open interest and now the incumbent Mark Sutcliffe dropped from favorite down to the fourth place!

Does he have any alpha? Or was it just a misclick?

#4 Starship Launch Delayed

Trade Starship Launch on Stand

In tech, SpaceX has once again delayed the launch of the Starship Flight Test 13. The decision was caused by a Raptor 3 engine ignition failure.

The sudden problems caused massive volatility on the launch market. Even the end of August market experienced a sharp correction as traders fear that a second delay might mean tougher problems to resolve.

#5 We Have the Winner

Lastly, something for the soccer fans. We had a World Cup final yesterday! After a tense 90 minutes the game went into overtime. Late in extra time, Spain scored a goal against Argentina to win the trophy after a spectacular performance during the entire tournament.

Trump even managed to get in the photo!

Did you enjoy the World Cup? Let us know in the comments.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! For the 6th night in a row, strikes continued across Iran, which we cover in the Strait of Hormuz section. Big news out of SpaceX as they postpone the highly anticipated Starship launch that was set for today. Markets are hoping for some clarity on the Clarity Act at today’s hearing at Federal Hall.

We also take a look at some of the key primaries taking place next week in Arizona before wrapping up with the World Cup final, where prediction markets have established a clear favorite.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

Subscribe now

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is remains in the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR is back to the slow upward trend, reaching 100.44 points. The index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.

House

After a short period of stabilization around 75 points, HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

Subscribe now

Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade Strait of Hormuz traffic on Stand

US strikes on Iran continued overnight, hitting an airport, a railway station, and several bridges. American forces boarded a ship in the Gulf of Oman, enforcing the renewed blockade of Iran’s ports that began earlier this week. Markets are pricing in a coinflip with 52% chance Strait traffic returns to normal by year end.

#2 SpaceX Postpones Launch

Trade SpaceX Starship launch on Stand

When will SpaceX launch Starship? Not today. Elon posted on X that two of the Super Heavy booster’s Raptor rocket engines need to be replaced with the most likely launch window shifting to early next week. Markets disagree and are pricing in a July 31st launch date.

Trade Tesla and SpaceX merger on Stand

On a related note, with SpaceX stock down 50% from post IPO highs, rumors continue around a Tesla/SpaceX merger. We will continue to monitor this market which currently implies a 23% probability of an official merger announcement before year end.

#3 Clarity Act Hearing

Trade Clarity Act on Stand

Today’s hearing is the last scheduled public opportunity for input before the expected July 20 floor vote. The House subcommittee will hear testimony from exchanges, banks, and custodians. Let’s see what happens today, but traders are skeptical giving Clarity 31% chance of becoming law by year end.

#4 AZ Primaries

Trade Arizona Primary on Stand

On Tuesday, election traders will be focused on the Arizona primaries. Congressional District 1 is considered highly competitive since the current Representative David Schweikert is running for governor instead of seeking re-election. As of now, markets believe the general election will be between Jay Feely and Amish Shah.

Trade Arizona Primary on Stand

#5 World Cup

Trade World Cup on Stand

It’s been an exciting summer of soccer and it all comes to a head this weekend as Spain faces off against Argentina for the World Cup title. Markets have Spain as the favorite with a 60% chance of victory, but if we have learned anything since the tournament started, never bet against Messi.

Trade World Cup on Stand

Mbappe and team will face off against England on Saturday for the chance to secure a 3rd place finish. Traders and fans are pricing in a 65% chance they pull it off.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you next week for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

With almost 4m impressions at the time of writing there were 3 types of responses

1. This is terrible and prediction markets have gone to far (90% of responses)

2. The Seinfeld episode, the bet and the delay (9% of responses)

3. This is interesting, novel, unique, etc. (1% of responses)

I found this response curious and in many ways responses potentially did not fully read the certification.

Will <above/below/between/exactly/at least> <percentage> of scheduled <flight category> flights at <airport> be cancelled in <time period>?

Example scenarios that were provided that could use this certification

• The fixed total of scheduled flights is 1,200 and the Source Agency classifies 640 of them as cancelled as of the Expiration time. The percentage cancelled is 53.33%, which is greater than or equal to 50.00%.

• A blizzard is forecast; airlines pre-emptively cancel 500 of the 1,000 scheduled flights the evening before <time period> begins, and 30 additional scheduled flights are cancelled during <time period> . The percentage cancelled is 53.00%.

• <airport> is fully closed for the entirety of and no scheduled flight operates. The percentage cancelled is deemed 100.00%.

An example market could be “Will over 2.5% of flights at EWR be cancelled in the month of August 2026” (EWR saw 2.7% of flights cancelled in 2025, 26% delayed).

This is very different than delays on a specific route or flight.

Dustin Gouker even reports

And while I joke and criticize a lot in this space, there’s absolutely some value here from both a hedging standpoint and a price discovery angle. Flights can undoubtedly impact businesses and financial outcomes in a variety of ways. You could even hedge your vacation. And having a probability associated with how many flights might be canceled is useful information!

Gouker also reports that Kalshi already has contracts similar to these, US flight cancellations for the week ending at 5pm EDT on 7/17 for example. Additionally contracts like Delays and cancellations at JFK Airport on November 13, 2025? and Delays and cancellations at O’Hare Airport on November 13, 2025?

Perhaps the most interesting part of these is the progression (and improvement) to the certifications and settlement criteria.

In 2025 flight delay contracts were certified and markets were listed. Certifications were for specific airports, for example FLIGHTORD for the O’Hare delay market. The contract. The entire certification is below and it is

• specific to one airport (ORD)

• focuses on the # of delays on a specific date

• uses (1) settlement source FlightAware

• has no rules around trading prohibitions

• no examples around scenarios that would settle yes/no

Flightord

138KB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

Kalshi filed a handful of these for various airports like ORD, LAX, JFK. Later an amendment was filed to update rules on various markets.

The current cancellation markets, which are far broader and focus on all US cancelled flights, fall under the ECONSTAT certification which is similarly as short but generalized to just about any economic stat.

The filing of “Will <above/below/between/exactly/at least> <percentage> of scheduled <flight category> flights at <airport> be cancelled in <time period>?” is quite the step up in the fine print of the certifications and can be beneficial once markets begin trading on them.

Ptc0714269602

294KB ∙ PDF file

Download

Download

The new filing linked above is Kalshi moving from the extremely general ECONSTAT and very specific FLIGHTORD and finding a generalized contract for flight cancellations in the middle while also drastically improving the rules and settlement criteria. Likely one of the many things Harrison, Kalshi’s internal agent, is helping with (bloomberg, archive).

The new contract now

• covers above/below/between/exactly/at least, any type of value you could think ov

• generalized to <flight category> and <airport> allowing for more freedom and potential markets focused just on a given airlines cancellations for example

• moved from a specific date to a time period (“this month”, “end of year”, etc.)

• included numerous examples for what would resolve a market yes or no and what would be excluded

• trading prohibitions are now included

• there are now two source agencies a primary and secondary

The primary Source Agency is FlightAware. The secondary Source Agency, applied only if the primary is unavailable or does not publish a usable figure for , is the U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) On-Time.

Regardless of how you feel about the markets that could trade off of this, the improvements to the settlement criteria and rules are very appreciated and welcomed.

Two other things we found interesting

1. The contract certification is for FLIGHTDELAY but the rules are around cancellations not delays

2. The certification is categorized under transportation

   

   but related to health in the introduction

   

Good morning! Outside of the raging Iran war, which we cover in the Strait of Hormuz section, the biggest news of the day comes from the UK. After weeks of speculation, Andy Burnham teased his cabinet picks by leaking some rumors to the press. Traders were quite surprised to learn some of his choices—we expand on this topic below.

We also briefly focus on Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump before turning to business and the first rumor about the upcoming OpenAI hardware device that traders say might launch this year. Lastly, we have something for everyone watching the World Cup.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR is back to the slow upward trend, reaching 100.49 points. The index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.

House

After a short period of stabilization around 75 points, HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade Strait of Hormuz traffic on Stand

The Iran war shows no signs of de-escalation. Both sides continue to exchange strikes—while Iran still focuses on the US bases in the region, America has expanded its target selection across Iran.

In the meantime, the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz shows no change:

However, neither side is escalating when it comes to the target selection—key infrastructure is still left alone. Traders following the conflict noticed the restraint, stabilizing the Yes price on the end of August market at 13c.

#2 War Planning?

Trade Trump to meet Netanyahu by…? on Stand

Amid the ongoing hostilities, Netanyahu is supposed to meet with Trump. Traders were expecting he will see him first thing after arriving in the US.

However, it is reported that Netanyahu will meet with Trump only on Monday. They are expected to discuss Lebanon ahead of the Trump’s meeting with the President of Lebanon on July 21st. Considering the text of the recently signed Lebanon framework, we can consider it war planning.

#3 The New UK Cabinet Is Taking Shape

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Turning to UK politics, Andy Burnham’s new cabinet is starting to take shape after weeks of speculation.

Traders had Ed Miliband as the favorite to be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer, but it’s Shabana Mahmood, the current Home Secretary, who is now expected to get the job. These are unconfirmed rumors for now, but traders seem to trust them, giving Shabana Mahmood an 86% chance to take over Britain’s finances.

Trade UK Cabinet Nominations on Stand

Ed Miliband is not left without a job. He is now expected to be the next Foreign Secretary, replacing Yvette Cooper. She shouldn’t complain—traders now give her a 41% chance of taking over the Home Secretary position:

Trade UK Cabinet Nominations on Stand

Andy Burnham will be confirmed as Labour Party leader on Friday; he can become the next prime minister as soon as next week.

#4 OpenAI Teased a New Hardware Product

Trade OpenAI Consumer Hardware Product Launch on Stand

Outside of politics, Bloomberg reported that OpenAI is working on a mobile smart speaker as its first consumer hardware device. The device is designed to be screen-free and is being pitched internally as a “humanlike AI companion that lives in the home.”

Traders have expected OpenAI to ship a hardware product ever since Jony Ive was hired. They treat the news as a first teaser and now see a 54% chance we will see the device this year.

#5 World Cup Semifinals

Lastly, something for the soccer fans. After a surprising defeat of France against Spain, Kylian Mbappe was no longer the favorite to win the Golden Boot. Additionally, after Argentina defeated England to advance to the finals, Lionel Messi is now the favorite to be decorated as the top goal scorer.

The 39 year old legend still has it in himself. Who are you rooting for in the finals? Let us know in the comments!

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! As the title says, show must go on—the Iran war is heating up again. At 6AM this morning, CENTCOM announced a new wave of strikes, aiming to limit the IRGC’s ability to target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. We dive deeper into the latest developments there in the Strait of Hormuz section.

Next, we take a brief look at the midterms, as well as the chances of a Fed hike in two weeks as Kevin Warsh is settling in as the Fed chair. Then we move across the pond to take a look at the latest developments in UK politics, where Andy Burnham is forming a new cabinet.

Lastly, we move on to business and examine the recent market changes on the Gemini Pro release market and Stripe x PayPal acquisition market.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR seems to be back to the slow upward trend after a short slump. Index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.

House

After a short period of stabilization around 75 points, HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

Subscribe now

Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade Strait of Hormuz traffic on Stand

Both sides continue to exchange fire. The US is targeting sites mostly across Southern Iran while Iran is sending missiles all across the Persian Gulf, including on ships. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stopped as vessels would rather stay put than risk getting hit:

Traders now give only 11% chance we will see traffic normalization by the end of August. Oil continues its rally amid the escalation with both Brent and WTI now trading above $80 per barrel:

#2 Fed Hike Moved Ahead

Trade Fed Hike on Stand

While the Strait of Hormuz is back to the old status quo, the June inflation numbers were still positively impacted by the MoU. The June CPI print surprised to the downside and resulted in traders sharply updating their hike forecast.

Chances of a July hike fell from 36% down to 11% on the news. But the September hike is still very much on the table—traders give a 42% chance we will see one then.

The July decision will give a lot of insight into the thinking of Kevin Warsh. It will be his second decision and the first after the announcement that the Fed is ditching forward guidance as a policy. We will be watching his speech closely to give you some insights into the future.

#3 Turmoil in the UK

Trade UK Chancellor on Stand

Across the Atlantic, it seems that Ed Miliband will not be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer.

His chances collapsed as reports started to emerge that Miliband’s agenda might be a problem for the new government. Labour Party is first and foremost trying to repair its image after a highly unpopular Keir Starmer allowed the Reform UK to gain popularity and emerge as a favorite to win the next election.

We shall hear more on UK politics as this week Andy Burnham is expected to be confirmed as the party leader. He can become the prime minister as early as next week.

#4 No New Gemini Pro Anytime Soon

Trade Gemini Pro release on Stand

Leaving politics behind, Google is not expected to release the next Gemini Pro model this month in a surprising turn of events.

On social media we can see that the model can still come out as early as July 17th. However, some reports say that the launch has been delayed until the end of the month, or even further:

Traders seem to trust the delay news more as in the last couple of days the market has collapsed from nearly 70c to just 5c for the July 17th strike.

#5 Stripe Is Looking To Buy PayPal

Trade Paypal deal on Stand

Lastly, just yesterday we got the news that Stripe and Advent Capital, a private equity firm, are looking to buy PayPal for $53 billion.

Traders were not expecting that as the Yes price was at just 19c when the news hit. Now, they do see the offer as serious as the price of Yes shares rose to 73c. Sometimes prediction markets also get surprises.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! We are not slowing down. We saw plenty of news on Monday, especially around the Iran war. We cover the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz section, where markets are beginning to price a significantly more severe scenario.

From the Iran war, we move to Europe as we track the markets on Hungary’s president and a seemingly impossible task of forming a new government in Romania. Lastly, we take a brief look at South Carolina, where politicians are already fighting to take over late Lindsey Graham’s Senate seat.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR seems to be back to the slow upward trend after a short slump. Index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.

House

After a short period of stabilization around 75 points, HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

Subscribe now

Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade on Stand

Yesterday, Donald Trump announced that the US blockade of Iranian ports is reinstated. Additionally, he notified Congress that the war is back on. Iran threatened to completely block the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea in retaliation. The report is unconfirmed at the time of writing:

Whether it’s only the Strait of Hormuz, or the whole region, the main casualty is oil. In the last 12 hours only 5 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz, meaning we are back to war level traffic:

Traders have adjusted their forecast accordingly—the end of August market for traffic normalization trades at only 13c, indicating that traders don’t see an easy way out of the situation.

Oil is reacting as well, with the main benchmarks up around 15% since last week:

#2 More Disruption

Trade on Stand

Traders are not willing to play FAFO. Once the rumor on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait being closed dropped, they sharply updated their forecast in regards to the Houthis. Now there’s 41% chance we will see the Houthis target shipping by the end of the month.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia and the Houthis exchanged strikes yesterday, breaking a four-year truce. With the second round of hostilities, Yemen goes into play, something I underscored repeatedly.

Just when everyone was thinking that things could get back to normal, we are hit with an even bigger disruption.

#3 Hungary President Out?

Trade on Stand

Turning to Europe, the new parliament under Peter Magyar voted to remove Tamas Sulyok from office.

Traders were expecting that as Magyar has repeatedly said that he intended to remove the president. The only uncertain thing was timing, but even then the Yes price fell below 70c only once.

In Hungary, contrary to the US, a president is mostly a ceremonial function and he is appointed by the parliament, rather than by a general election.

#4 Romania Still Has No Government

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In neighboring Romania the government crisis continues. Ever since the previous government collapsed back in early May, the country’s political parties have struggled to form a new government.

The current president is trying desperately to avoid a snap election. The anti-EU right-wing party AUR, led by the president’s second-round opponent George Simon, is currently leading in the polls. Their victory would complicate further Romanian integration into the EU.

At the same time, George Simon is probably enjoying the show. He was credited as the mastermind behind the collapse and now he offers to help back a new government. However, his proposal comes with strings attached.

Traders are increasingly skeptical any party can gather enough support and chances are we might see a snap election soon.

#5 South Carolina Senate Special Primary

Trade on Stand

Lastly, we move to domestic matters. Lindsey Graham’s body is barely cold, but the political machine is heating up. Politicians are already jostling to get his spot in the Special Primary and most likely take the Senate seat:

Trade on Stand

The frontrunner to take his seat with 66% chances, Russell Fry, is the current US representative for South Carolina's 7th congressional district. He’s been rumored to be interested in the position. However, it is still extremely early and a lot can happen before we know the name of Graham’s replacement.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! It was a difficult weekend to say the least. Not only did we see a massive escalation around the Persian Gulf, but we also saw the sudden passing of a long-serving US Senator. We cover both stories in today’s brief.

Additionally, we expand on our Iran war analysis to include new forecasts on a potential US blockade, as well as developments in Lebanon. Outside of the Middle East, we take a quick look at the Ukraine war as we enter a period of summer fighting.

Lastly, we take a brief look at the US midterms to see if the recent events had any impact on the House and Senate prospects.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

Subscribe now

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR seems to be back to the slow upward trend after a short slump. Index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.

House

After a short period of stabilization around 75 points, HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

Subscribe now

Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade on Stand

The exchange of fire between the US and Iran has continued over the weekend. Iran escalated to targeting American bases in the region, while the US struck multiple targets across Iran, including energy infrastructure.

After Trump declared the ceasefire effectively over during the NATO summit in Ankara, we’ve seen both sides slowly returning to the pre-April 7th status quo. That being said, the energy markets still hope that we can deescalate in the coming days as oil is still below $80 per barrel:

However, ever since Trump’s declaration, the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt:

As a result, traders now see only 17% chance we will see traffic normalization in the strait by the end of August. It seems that oil prices have some catching up to do.

#2 Back to the Old Status Quo?

Trade on Stand

With all the escalations in the Strait of Hormuz, traders now see an increased risk of a renewed US blockade of Iran.

Trump declared the ceasefire effectively over, but America is yet to reinstate all the measures that were present before the MoU. He might do that soon though, as traders elevated the chances of a blockade by the end of the month from 11% to 31%. At one moment we even reached 53% chance.

As the situation develops quickly, this market is the one to watch. Reinstating the blockade means that we are back to fighting for longer.

#3 Israel x Lebanon to Meet Amid Rising Tensions

Trade on Stand

We cannot omit the fact that Israel and Lebanon are meeting in Rome amid this escalation. I believe that the Lebanon framework is the main reason Iran went ballistic. Further escalation before the meeting can suggest that its outcome can be extremely unfavorable to Hezbollah.

Iran was looking to protect its proxy through the MoU. However, the clauses in the MoU referred only to the territorial integrity of Lebanon. The framework essentially hires Israel to help the Lebanese government in retaking full control over its territory. While not technically a breach of the MoU, it infuriated Iran.

If you follow developments in the Middle East, the result of this diplomatic meeting could determine the future path of the US x Iran confrontation.

#4 Is There Not Enough Pressure on Oil?

Turning to Eastern Europe, Ukraine continues its deep strike campaign against Russia. As a result, airspace over Moscow was closed. However, Russia says that all of the missiles and drones were intercepted.

What we see on the market is that traders continue to underestimate the intensity of the Ukrainian strike campaign. As the summer offensives are set to ramp up soon, both sides are trying to hurt each other as much as they can. However, it’s Ukraine that apparently sees more success.

In the recent months Ukraine targeted multiple oil refineries and pipelines. It hurt Russia’s main export industry in the times of decreased oil supply globally, significantly suppressing any potential windfall profits. Additionally, Ukraine is getting a license to produce Patriot missiles.

Chances are the Ukraine war is the conflict to watch during summer as a lot can change in the next few months.

#5 It’s Not Mitch McConnell Who Saw His Term Shortened

Trade on Stand

Lastly, let’s move to domestic issues. As Mitch McConnell appears to be getting better, it’s another Senator who’s sudden illness caused him to prematurely end his term.

Lindsey Graham died over the weekend. Apparently, the cause of death is cardiac arrest. Graham was a known war hawk and he has just returned from Ukraine per his schedule.

May he finally find peace, something he seemed to struggle with during his life.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! It’s a quiet morning in the Middle East, sparking theories that further escalation is on the way. We cover the latest developments around the Iran war in our Strait of Hormuz section. We still keep it as a daily special as the traffic through the strait continues to impact our lives across the globe.

Next, we turn to domestic affairs in the US as traders have sharply adjusted their forecast on Mitch McConnell’s chances of finishing his term. Then we move across the pond to see the havoc Marine Le Pen’s decision wrecked on the French political landscape.

Finally, we wrap up with a few lighter topics—we start with the new UFO files to move on the short brief on the latest World Cup game.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

After a couple of days of intense strikes, we have had an unexpected period of calm. Neither side is conducting military operations, but the Strait of Hormuz has effectively closed:

Prediction markets are flat, waiting for any signal to adjust the forecast. So is oil, still not paying enough attention to the unfolding energy crisis:

#2 Mitch McConnell Seems OK

Moving to domestic issues in the US, Mitch McConnell was seen on a stretcher as he was being loaded into an ambulance.

Traders quickly interpreted the news as a signal that he is getting better, meaning that the only reason for him to resign is disappearing. The market dropped off a cliff, from 60c down to 47c. Seems that the old man still has it in himself.

#3 Turbulence in France After the Marine Le Pen Verdict

Moving across the pond, Marine Le Pen has created some chaos in French politics. Just after her campaign announcement, the United Left encountered problems.

The Socialist Party is rumored to have resigned from the primary, undermining the united front. Traders expect other parties to abandon the idea as well as Marine Le Pen’s announcement was widely unexpected.

#4 New UFO Files?

The market on the new UFO files being declassified by Trump has moved up as the War Department released the fourth batch of the files.

Traders were expecting the release, however we can see in the comment section that some No holders were just a bit too sure of themselves. We are now awaiting the first news reports to see if anything worthwhile was released.

#5 First Quarterfinals Are Behind Us

Lastly, something for soccer fans. Prediction markets were quick to catch that France has an advantage over Morocco. As expected, France won 2-0 to advance to the semifinals.

France is now the favorite to win the whole tournament:

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! The exchange of fire between the US and Iran continued overnight as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground almost to a halt. We explore the recent developments in the region in the Strait of Hormuz section. The ongoing energy supply shock is beginning to impact the Fed rate hike decision—the market on the chances of one moved up significantly.

Outside of the Iran war and its consequences, we provide a small update on the midterms, as well as potential new Cabinet members across the pond. Then we move on to tech as we take a first look at Grok 4.5 and its improved capabilities. Lastly, we have a small update for the World Cup fans.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

Subscribe now

The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR seems to be back to the slow upward trend after a short slump.

House

HOUSER stabilized around 75 points indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

Subscribe now

Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Yesterday’s strikes continued overnight. Both sides hit multiple targets and neither seems ready to back down. US officials say that even bridges in Iran were targeted this time, along with military sites across the country.

The market on the Strait of Hormuz avoided further decay as traders have already priced in the current level of confrontation. In the meantime, oil is starting to catch up with the reality:

As the hostilities continue, traffic through the Strait becomes more and more difficult:

Without any de-escalation soon, we expect to see further increases in oil prices, combined with the chances of traffic normalization going lower.

#2 Fed Hike May Come Sooner Than Expected

The current situation on the energy market, caused by the Iran war, impacts the Fed. Kevin Warsh started his term in difficult conditions. After months of Trump bashing Powell for not lowering the rates, he must now consider raising them.

The recent FOMC minutes release underscored a deep divide between the board members. However, they also showed a real hawkish turn, compared to previous releases. Traders noticed that and moved their forecast ahead. Now, September meeting is when the decision will be made.

#3 No News Can Be News In Itself

Moving across the pond, we still have no news about the final picks for the Great Offices of State in the UK. Andy Burnham is keeping us in the dark, but some traders perceive it as a signal in itself.

As time goes by, chances of a last minute, dark horse candidate get lower. The public has now digested the rumors and got used to the top names being repeated in the news. It might be the last time we see Ed Miliband priced so low.

#4 New Grok Has Made Some Waves

xAI released Grok 4.5 yesterday in an effort to keep up with the industry leaders. This time, however, the company partnered with the newly acquired Cursor to vastly improve its coding capabilities:

Additionally, the model is rumored to be significantly cheaper than Mythos-class models from Anthropic.

Traders are not expecting a shocking performance in Text Arena though. A score around 1,470 would put the new model just behind the top 10, currently dominated by Anthropic.

#5 World Cup Final Halftime Show

Lastly, something for soccer fans—Halftime show for the final is now confirmed.

Some names were expected, while others were more surprising, like Shakira, Justin Bieber or Burna Boy. Culture traders had a bit of fun in the market as we are watching the quarterfinals. Do you have your favorites for today’s game?

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.