In our hopes, let's see what prediction markets think ahead of the next (final?) round of US x Iran negotiations.

Iran Tracker

#1 Peace

After initial excitement over Friday's posts by Trump, traders updated their short term expectations of a permanent peace to 33%.

However, longer term expectations are still saying a deal is more likely than not. Additionally, ahead of the tense talks, whales and sharp traders are positioned on the Yes side for both short and long term.

With emotions running high though, traders significantly increased their expectations of the end of the ceasefire, currently sitting at 23%:

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

After Friday's bullish announcements by Trump, expectations of traffic normalization in the Strait of Hormuz increased sharply. However, soon after, IRGC announced renewed closure of the strait due to the ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports.

Traders also remain cautious in their forecast of single day transits, with 20+ boats sitting at 74%, unchanged since last week.

Energy prices, on the other hand, indicate the conflict might resolve soon with WTI well below $100 per barrel:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Outside of the small volatility observed on Friday, US invasion chances remained flat over the week, currently sitting at 34%.

Traders remain cautious amid the current escalatory rhetoric as they can be part of the negotiations. Persians are famously fierce negotiators and wild threats are for them just part of the bargaining process. We shall know more soon.

#4 Regional Expansion

Chances of regional expansion of the conflict remain at their lowest level, with only 7% and 5% chances for UAE and Saudi Arabia involvement.

With overall expectations of renewed hostilities being low, the Gulf countries are not looking to re-escalate the conflict without a specific US ask.

Similarly, despite some threats, a closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait remains a remote possibility:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iran regime fall chances are lower than last week as another round of talks approaches.

Even with apparent leadership clash in Iran, the regime is expected to remain strong, with only internal fights possible that wouldn't change the overall structure of the regime.

Wrap up

We are awaiting this week's talks with high expectations. Partly hope and partly prudent analysis, we do have this view as the alternative of renewed fighting and global depression are hard to imagine.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

At the same time more and more equipment is being sent to the region as a pressure tactic, or simply just in case. The situation remains dynamic, but let's see what the markets think.

Iran Tracker

#1 Peace

Chances for peace sustained around 40% by the end of the month, with a ceasefire deadline chances at 26% and a deal by end of May being more likely than not.

Trump's announcement made waves, especially on the April 22 market, but we still lack an official confirmation that would send the markets up to bond territory. That being said, the sharps are mostly on the Yes side. At the same time the ceasefire lasting beyond initial deadline is now almost a certainty:

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Even with general bullishness about a deal, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed by a double blockade and chances are low we will se a proper normalization of traffic by the end of the month.

That being said, chances of at least a partial resumption of traffic this month increased, with 20+ ships passing at 75% chances in any day:

A lot depends on the shape of the deal which is for now unknown. That being said, Polymarket traders think sanctions relief and unfreezing of Iranian assets are likely, while a toll is dubious. When looking at chances, remember that there is a steep discount due to a deal in April having only 42% chances at this point - if you remove the discount all of the below are above 50% likely outside of the fee, which would be at ca. 17%:

Energy prices are also cautiously bullish deal with red across the board as we go into the weekend:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Boots on the ground remain stable at 31%, indicating that long-term expectations of a deal are also stable.

The massive airlift ongoing is perceived as a continuation of operational readiness, rather than a prelude to a certain escalation. It is an important signal as some media push an escalation narrative based on these movements. Thanks to markets we know that it might be an overstatement by them.

#4 Regional Expansion

Regional expansion is flat, aligned with peace and invasion markets.

However, Houthi are threatening preparations for Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closure, sending chances on the market higher. That being said, they are still low:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iran regime fall chances are also flat since yesterday as there is no indication of any cracks in the regime.

Wrap up

We see a lot of hope in the markets, but this time it is sustained by bullish developments on the ground. Still a lot can happen, but there is a path to peace. We should expect meeting confirmation today or during the weekend. Otherwise, the bullishness might quickly change into bearishness on peace.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Additionally, there are voices saying that a prolonged economic slowdown is now inevitable with the strait being closed for so long. We will continue to monitor energy situation in Asia and Europe.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

But some of them had interesting moves.

Iran Tracker

#1 Peace

In a flurry of conflicting news traders see a path towards peace. Since yesterday, peace chances grew to 60% by end of May.

The perception shift was sustained even amid growing military buildup in the region. Considering top holders in this markets, it is a strong signal that peace is on the table and things can move fast. Similar story is visible on the end of ceasefire market, indicating that resumption of hostilities is unlikely:

That being said, the market can react sharply if we don't get any bullish news soon.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. And here traders continue to be bearish on the normalization of traffic.

Even a peace deal would not resume traffic immediately. Vessels wouldn't be so eager to sail into the Persian Gulf and considering a possibility of a toll, there might be a queue to get out.

Single day transit forecast is stable:

Energy prices are also flat since yesterday:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Chances of US invasion remain at 33%, sustained mainly by the continued airlift to the region.

Be it pressure tactic, internal conflict or the ceasefire being just a disguise for renewed action, this is the one thing that keeps the situation ambiguous. And in case of invasion, we now cannot say what would be the target as Kharg Island chances dropped to only 10%:

#4 Regional Expansion

Regional expansion chances continue to dive as there is no indication Gulf countries will be needed in case of resumption.

There are so many US assets in the region at this point that the expectation is that it will be a joint US-Israeli action, rather than a broader effort.

On the other side of the Arabian peninsula, chances of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closure also decreased, reaching previous lows:

If anything, recent price action on the above markets screams end of conflict.

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iran regime fall chances also reached new lows, confirming the above statement.

In case of ground invasion, these should spike up significantly. Them reaching their low now is a strong indication the end is near.

Wrap up

We see a lot of hope in the markets, but this time it is sustained by bullish developments on the ground. Still a lot can happen, but there is a path to peace. Price action since yesterday continues to suggest that.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

I was definitely shocked when I woke up to ceasefire news on Wednesday morning. I really didn’t think Trump has it in himself, but here we are. And since it happened, there is a chance for an actual peace deal. We are 5 days into 2-week ceasefire and plenty can happen, including multiple negotiation rounds and even ceasefire extension.

For now we await market open and the news it will bring. And besides Iran war, there is plenty happening around the world. Only here you will get news put against prediction markets with commentary.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

It’s been an interesting week in the US.

Trump went against NATO following a meeting with Mark Rutte in Washington. Trump accused NATO of not being there for America when it needed them and threatened to leave the alliance again.

Comment: Trump might be seething, but NATO is essential to the US as it props up the military industrial complex through regular orders and allows the US to dictate foreign policy of its members. Even with recent comments traders give only 13% chance Trump leaves NATO.

The Democratic Republic of Congo reached an agreement with the Trump administration to receive migrants deported from America. The first people will arrive this month, including citizens of third countries.

Comment: these measures do little to alleviate the migrant problem in the US. The projected numbers of deportees stayed flat on the news, indicating that there are bigger problems than destination countries when it comes to deportations.

Artemis II mission ended safely with all astronauts returning healthy. NASA is planing further lunar missions, including the construction of a Moon base. Trump is also looking at Mars.

Comment: amid Cold War 2.0, is the new space race coming? Some people surely dream of a scenario from the Apple TV series For All Mankind. But regardless, it’s not coming anytime soon, with best case scenario being first moon landing in 2028.

The Americas

With all eyes on Iran, there are real developments being missed in Cuba.

Miguel Diaz-Canel is not resigning amid pressure from the US. Trump is conducting a naval blockade of the island while Russia is pledging help with energy.

Comment:

Asia

A rather quiet week in Asia.

New measures:

• Some airlines reduced their flights, especially domestic Vietnam operators amid jet fuel shortage.

• Thailand and Malaysia introduced stricter WFH measures in order to conserve fuel.

Comment: despite the ceasefire, the traffic through the strait is still close to 0, worsening the energy supply shock day by day. Last week many nations were hopeful, if we don’t get any progress this week expect more and stricter measures.

Middle East & Africa

It’s been a chaotic week in the Middle East.

We started the week with America attacked Kharg Island again, hitting an airport, a dock and an IRGC base. Israel matched the effort targeting railways and bridges.

We also had the big ultimatum that ended in a last minute 2-week ceasefire. Initially it was conditional on the Strait of Hormuz reopening and included Lebanon, but later on the Strait remained closed and Lebanon war is still raging on.

The ceasefire was fragile at the beginning (still is tbh) as Lebanon issue is important for Iran and Israel is unwilling to cease fire there.

The talks happened on Friday-Saturday in Islamabad, even as many doubted they will come to negotiate. JD Vance led the US team as both sides negotiated for 21 hours before calling it quits with no deal on the table. JD Vance left Islamabad shortly after the end. Reportedly, the nuclear issue, as well as Strait of Hormuz opening, are the two main points that are not aligned.

During the talks, 2 American destroyers passed through the Strait of Hormuz to begin a mine-clearing operation. The ships departed after warnings from Iran.

After the negotiations, which Trump said went well, Trump announced a total blockade of the strait starting today 10AM ET. He also said that most points were agreed on, but Iran failed to commit to no nuclear weapon. At the same time Iran accuses the US of failing to build enough trust.

Comment: this looks like escalation before deescalation. 21 hours of intense talks are rather bullish for peace as it is longer any other negotiation with Iran recently lasted. We should expect some good news before market open, as usual. The question is how good of a news we can get and if it will lead to peace. For now traders are not optimistic looking at chances of permanent peace deal.

Netanyahu said Israel would begin talks with Lebanon with the strikes on Hezbollah continuing until further notice.

Comment: Trump is trying to reign in Israel, for now only mildly successfully. It remains to be seen if he manages to do it to the full extent. However, for now, Iran seems ok with the small offensive continuing.

Europe

It was a historic week in Europe.

Ukraine continued to bomb Russian energy infrastructure, hitting an oil terminal in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and an offshore drilling platforms in the Caspian Sea owned by Lukoil amid rising fears of global energy shortage. There was also a short ceasefire announced on the Orthodox Easter.

Comment: for now nothing indicates that either side is ready to stop. We must see what late spring brings in terms of new offensives.

Starmer was forced to shelve legislation ceding sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. Trump strongly criticized the deal as Diego Garcia is one of the islands.

Comment: Diego Garcia is vital to American power projection. I don’t expect the deal to be ratified any time soon.

Orban lost the election in Hungary, ceding power for the first time since 2010. Tisza, led by ex-Fidesz Peter Magyar is projected to win the supermajority.

Comment: a stunning victory wis massive turnout. Just wait till people learn that Magyar is also right-wing and even tougher on immigration than Orban. His only difference is supposed lack of corruption (and lack of Russian connections), which remains to be seen.

Business, Finance & Economics

The US annual inflation reached 3.3% in March, up from 2.4% in February on rapidly rising energy prices.

Comment: the war has global consequences and the US will not escape them. Sure, it will be better off than most Asian countries, but everyone will be worse off.

Intel announced it would join Musk’s Terafab project, partnering with Tesla, SpaceX and xAI to help Musk manufacture his own chips for robotics and data centers in space.

Comment: Musk seems to be pumping the upcoming SpaceX IPO. Additionally, since Intel is partly government-controlled, it indicates that he is still in Trump’s favors. Important for the upcoming midterms.

Wrap up

That’s all for today. This week will be chaotic and volatile, but I’m cautiously optimistic we might get good news. Otherwise the global economy would really struggle and it is almost impossible to assess the havoc we would need to live through.

Stay strong and see you soon!

Let's look at how the markets changed since Monday.

Iran Tracker

#1 Peace

Chances for permanent peace went up significantly, reaching 54% by end of May.

It's the first time since the beginning of the war when traders see a deal as the most likely scenario. Trump is extremely bullish as he continues to tease the next round of talks and an imminent end to the war.

Similarly, chances of the ceasefire ending dumped hard as Trump found a cunning way to pressure Iran without going kinetic, ie. through a blockade:

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Despite the general bullishness on peace, traders are not confident we will see traffic normalization by the end of the month.

Even with a peace deal in place, ships might not be as quick to sail. Those who are in the Persian Gulf would surely scramble to leave, but considering a decent chance of a permanent fee being implemented, we can expect a queue. And with rules of the market being rather strict, there might not be enough time to normalize traffic.

However, traders do see an increase in traffic as highly probable again:

And so do commodities traders with oil prices once again below $100:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Invasion chances normalized around 30% amid all the rumors about another round of talks.

Even as more and more equipment and troops are being sent to the region, traders see it as a pressure tactic. Additionally, the blockade made a Kharg Island invasion less likely as it would achieve similar results:

#4 Regional Expansion

A regional expansion looks extremely unlikely at this point. With all countries, even Gulf ones, chances of joining the conflict below 10%.

Every Iran-related market screams peace at this point. Of course, there is still chaos and volatility, however directional moves are strong and sustained by mostly sharp traders that accumulate large positions for peace.

The same can be said about Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closure:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Regime fall chances are also hitting new lows amid possible peace.

Iran looks eager to secure the wins it got and end the conflict, even if it means concessions around the nuclear issue. After all, it looks like ballistic missiles were enough to deter the ground invasion.

Wrap up

We see a lot of hope in the markets, but this time it is sustained by bullish developments on the ground. Still a lot can happen, but there is a path to peace.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

We are entering dangerous territory - if the war ends soon and the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is restored, we might avoid a global depression. If not, the war might be the least of our problems, wherever you happen to live.

In hopes of finding positive news, let's look at what prediction markets think after the weekend.

Iran Tracker

#1 Peace

Traders are cautious about a permanent peace deal after the first round failed to produce a preliminary agreement.

Current mood is rather escalatory in the media amid reports of more airlift operations being conducted since the talks. However, we are still before market open and the small rise in the Yes price might be explained by expectation of some bullish news for the peace.

Especially since expectations are for the ceasefire to not end after 2 weeks:

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is bound to be double blocked right now as US 10AM deadline looms.

Iran threatened retaliation while traders updated their forecast of daily ship crossings:

However, the market remains volatile as traders expect some taco by the market open time.

#3 Boots On The Ground

US invasion chances remain slightly elevated after the first round of talks in Islamabad.

We already mentioned another massive airlift operation over the weekend, which makes some traders think escalation is coming. For now though all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz. Kharg Island remains forgotten in the current discourse:

#4 Regional Expansion

Regional expansion chances remain low even as escalation looms. The rumors of an UAE aircraft over Tehran blew off unconfirmed.

Traders also begun positioning for another Monday morning taco, further decreasing the chances.

On the other side of the Arabian peninsula, chances of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait blockade increased as Houthi are expected to close the strait once the US blockade is live. We remain a bit skeptical of this prospect as Houthi have other priorities.

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iranian regime fall chances are mostly flat on the news. Even another round of escalation doesn't necessarily mean collapse.

The regime is still proving to be resilient as it clashes with the biggest military on Earth.

Wrap up

With nothing certain now, markets are volatile responding to any new report. We shall wait for what the week brings. A lot hinges on the Monday morning taco.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

The situation remains tense as we look at prediction markets to figure out what is the most probable outcome.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The chances for a permanent deal remain low. Traders see that main points of contestation are for now unresolvable.

Additionally, we see that the US airlift of troops and equipment continues unbothered, indicating that we are in a temporary break, rather than at the premise of a permanent deal.

JD Vance is still expected to talk to the Iranian delegation though. Even amid reports that it is missing. In our opinion, some talks should happen as there are factions in both the US and Iran that want peace. However, we believe that the market is slightly too certain about it.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, even though the ceasefire was conditional on it being open. For now traders see a chance for increased traffic, but even a partial normalization with 40+ boats crossing the strait remains elusive at 43%:

As the commodities crisis is dependent on the strait, rather than the war, energy prices remain elevated:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Invasion chances are flat since the ceasefire announcement, but are still elevated at 30%.

Same can be said about a Kharg Island invasion, which simply trades with a discount to general invasion:

#4 Regional Expansion

Outside of the UAE, of which chances remain slightly elevated due to rumors of them attacking Iran already, chances of a regional expansion lowered significantly.

At the same time, chances of a Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closure stabilized around 12%, indicating a rather low chance of that, even if war was to escalate again:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iran regime fall chances stabilized in the low 20s amid possible talks.

In our opinion they are still elevated vs our fair value perception as nothing indicates the foundation is wobbly at this time.

Wrap up

With nothing certain now, markets are volatile responding to any new report. We shall wait for what the weekend brings as historically it was a time of escalation.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

So let's see the markets to understand where we are heading.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Traders remain bullish about end of hostilities today, even amid some strikes recorded on Bahrain.

There were also rumors on USAF tankers heading towards Iran, however till now we have no confirmed reports of Israeli / US strikes on Iran since late last night. The parties are also supposed to meet today or tomorrow in Islamabad, but it remains to be seen whether the meeting even takes place.

For now traders give 85% chance JD Vance will meet with the Iranian delegation by the end of April:

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Traders remain bearish on the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz, despite it being promised by Trump.

For now almost no boats are crossing as Iran is furious about Israel continuing to attack Lebanon. It is clear now that neither Israel nor the Gulf states were consulted during dubious ceasefire talks.

Energy prices remain high as no traffic is resumed and problems continue to pile up in extraction, refining, transport and general supply chains.

#3 Boots On The Ground

Invasion chances remain elevated at 31% as traders see a difficult path towards peace with many regional actors dissatisfied with the current arrangement.

Additionally, all US personnel will remain in the region while the reinforcements are still on the way. Kharg Island invasion chances stabilized near last week's levels as well:

Prediction markets show us that chances for a restart remain high.

#4 Regional Expansion

Regional expansion chances remain elevated as the UAE is reported to have attacked Iran and Iran is reported to have attacked the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia.

On the other hand, the Bab-el-Mandeb strait looks quite safe with. only 13% chance of closure by the end of the month. Seems like for now the Houthi are not looking to reignite the war.

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iranian regime fall chances remain elevated as peace talks are fragile. Iran is threatening exit if the offensive on Lebanon is not stopped.

The next few days will certainly be as volatile as the last 2.

Wrap up

We observe the situation and see more equipment being sent to the region as progress on talks and terms is... negative. there is nothing really agreed on and 2 sides are still far apart.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Despite the official announcement, many inside Israel and the US were surprised and looking at continuing strikes, it looks more like another extension of the deadline rather than a proper cessation of hostilities. Let's see then what the prediction markets think.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The main ceasefire markets resolved to Yes on the announcement, but traders are not exactly sure the military action will end soon.

The market's rules specify the end of military action as a full day of no strikes from the US and Israel on Iran. Since Israel was not consulted on the ceasefire and the current rumored arrangement doesn't solve their strategic goals, there is a fairly high chance the announced ceasefire will not hold.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Despite the ceasefire, Iran still has control of the strait, as specified in the initial agreement and it said it will let only 10-15 boats per day.

However, traders see a path towards a resumed traffic, for now. We are still in the early hours of the ceasefire and the initial bullishness might soon be replaced with a volatile reversal. We are monitoring the markets closely.

Energy prices reacted similarly, even if the real, hard supply of energy is still in a dire situation. We are still at price levels 50%+ higher than at the beginning of the year:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Invasion chances cratered on the news, but are still at 30% by the end of the year.

The marines are still on the way while assets are not being recalled. In reality we are a long way from official, lasting peace and we are at the same level of risk as we were on 13th of March, in the middle of massive strikes.

Kharg Island invasion chances also dropped, but they have since regained half of the move as the proposed ceasefire framework is dubious at best:

#4 Regional Expansion

Bab-el-Mandeb strait closure chances are pretty much at the same level as a week ago as Netanyahu declared Lebanon offensive is not part of the ceasefire agreement.

Iran might not agree with it and the Houthis will definitely not agree with it, thus traders quickly reversed the initial move down.

Chances of the UAE and Saudi Arabia dropped slightly though as traders see a potential deescalation as a signal to at least postpone a regional expansion of the conflict.

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iran regime fall chances reached a new low, but still remain elevated at 19% by the end of the year.

It is probably the best indication that traders expect a lot of volatility and chaos despite a ceasefire.

Wrap up

We were a bit surprised by the announcement (as were a lot of traders) and we can already see that the ceasefire is fragile, if not purely imaginary with missiles still flying from both sides and Lebanon conflict raging on.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Be it a market narrative, or a real struggle of factions inside both Iran and the US, the conflict looks like it's spiraling out of control. Let's look at the markets nd try to make sense out of it.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The ceasefire chances erased all the gains they made today on the rejection news and we are back to yesterday's levels with a further move downward being very likely.

It is more and more clear that there are groups of interests that want to see the war continue. However, the situation remains dynamic and we are looking at a volatile day.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed while ship traffic forecast is down.

With an apparent escalation in the works right now, the chances for a US escort operation remain low:

A hit on Kharg Island only makes the situation more dire with key energy commodities being up on the news:

#3 Boots On The Ground

The chances for a proper US invasion are slightly up. A hit on the Kharg Island resulted in chances of its invasion rising sharply:

Yesterday, we highlighted a massive airlift that happened over the weekend. Traders must believe that targeting Kharg Island might indicate it being a target for an invasion. Recent Trump comments on funding also indicate we might be in for quite a long war after all.

#4 Regional Expansion

All the war news had little impact on the broader regional expansion chances.

At the same time the UAE continues its hawkish narrative. It is clear that they want the war to resolve in Tehran's fall rather than a compromise. For now it's mostly talk though as Houthis are also not eager for now to escalate:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

But all the ceasefire talk makes traders think the regime is at least somewhat coherent, decreasing chances of its collapse.

Resilient. Still.

Wrap up

That's all for today. We will continue to monitor the situation as we are potentially entering a dangerous period, as indicated by Qatari sources.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

More and more, people on our timeline face the unthinkable and cling to hope that since the effects of a protracted energy supply shock will be extremely massive, there surely must be a way to stop all this madness. But is there?

We welcomed Monday with yet another ceasefire rumor, but let's see if this one has any credibility in it.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances shot up since the rumors of talks, but we are still well below the last week's level.

As we said in the intro, people want to believe, but the reality is that there is little to believe in. It's another Monday with a dovish rumor, that feels more and more like pure market manipulation than an honest effort to end the conflict.

We shall learn more one Trump speaks at 1 PM ET, but our expectations are low.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, but as more and more countries approach Iran to cut a deal, chances of 20+ ships passing the strait in a signle day rose to 82%.

However, 40+ bracket is priced at 46%, showing that any hope of a return to normal is limited. At the same time chances of a US-led escort operation remain low:

All the ceasefire talk managed to lower the oil prices a bit, but we are still above $100 a barrel for any type of oil and it remains to be seen how long will the effort manage to keep the prices down:

#3 Boots On The Ground

It happened. We had US boots on the ground as part of CSAR operation for one of the F-15 crew that crashed over Iran.

Now we must focus on a different market - an actual invasion. With massive airlift over the weekend, combined with plenty of rumors, even ceasefire narrative didn't manage to drop the chances here:

However, it still remains to be seen what is the target of the assumed invasion, as chances of a Kharg Island one are slim:

#4 Regional Expansion

Despite the failed UN vote on the Iran war, chances of UAE involvement rose over the weekend to 24%.

Gulf countries have all the incentive to continue the war at this point and their involvement is certainly on the table. Iranian control of the strait would be a massive strategic loss for them.

At the same time, chances of Bab-el-Mandeb strait closure remain low as the Houthi are not escalating at this point:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Left on purpose with no comment.

Wrap up

That's all for today. We are anxiously awaiting this week's developments while looking at what countries in Asia and Europe do to limit the impact of energy supply shock. More about that in PROPHET's Global Outlook.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Some generals were also fired, sparking all kinds of rumors online, from a coup attempt to a purge to eliminate those unwilling to commit to the war.

So let's look what prediction markets think ahead of the weekend.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances continue to find the new lows as we are awaiting the weekend action.

Traders expect the second round to last longer than 2-3 weeks and / or they don't see it as the final one. With Iranian resilience and current strategic leverage, the chances for a quick end are getting away.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed while traders see coin-flip chances of 20+ ships passing the strait by the end of the month in a single day.

The chances increased slightly as the first French ship was observed crossing the strait unbothered. More countries will try to work with Iran to resume traffic, however any escalation might further endanger the strait traffic.

And with no escort operation in sight, it is only logical oil breached new highs before the weekend:

#3 Boots On The Ground

As we enter the long weekend, chances of US boots on the ground are reapproaching all time highs.

Partly fueled by the sheer number of US troops in the region (over 50,000) and partly by Trump saying that the real destruction has not even begun, traders start to see ground ops as inevitable. However, it is still unclear what will be the target of the operation as Kharg Island invasion remains unlikely:

#4 Regional Expansion

Chances of either Saudi Arabia or UAE entering the conflict increased ahead of the UN Security Council vote and the weekend.

The Gulf-led effort to legalize the action under UN has reportedly failed before the vote has even started. And when it comes to second biggest risk (Bab-el-Mandeb strait), chances rose significantly ahead of the long weekend:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

You know the drill. Resilient. Entrenched.

Wrap up

That's all for today. Do enjoy the Easter long weekend whether you celebrate to holiday or not and hopefully the world economy will survive whatever is coming our way.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Additionally, Trump compared the length of the Iran war with both world wars and the Vietnam and Korean war, implying Iran war might drag on.

Traditional financial markets expected a deescalatory speech and oil went above $100 on the news. Let's see how prediction markets reacted as recently they offer a more nuanced view hen it comes to macro.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances went down across the board as traders internalized that the 2-3 weeks of operations is only a plan.

And as it is usual with plans, they tend to take their own life when executed. Thus we've reached the lowest level yet for the chances of a ceasefire by the end of the month. And we are still unsure what the US is planning.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Whatever operation is being planned, we can be sure that it will negatively impact the Strait of Hormuz in the short term.

For now the strait remains effectively closed, outside of the ships that pay the Iranian fee and are not affiliated with the US, Israel or other allies that aid the US in the current war.

Traders were also restrained when thinking about any escort operation as the chances of one grew only modestly during the speech. Which cannot be said about energy prices with WTI now being on par with Brent:

#3 Boots On The Ground

With the speech, chances of US boots on the ground rebounded, almost reaching previous highs.

Despite the American public being largely against a ground operation, the US might not have another choice. Be it an escort operation, or something else that gives the US leverage, ground troops will be essential in securing the objective.

#4 Regional Expansion

Chances of any Gulf country joining the war remain low, even as the UAE tries to force the UN to approve the use of force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, the Houthi are once again threatening the closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait as pressure on Iran and Lebanon increases, with chances slightly up since yesterday:

It is now more likely than any ground action against Saudi Arabia, presumably because the kingdom eased its aggressive rhetoric in recent days:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

All the escalatory talk did little to influence Iran regime fall chances.

Resilient. Entrenched.

Wrap up

That's all for today. We are awaiting now the long weekend as expectations are for the beginning of round 2 to start then.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

There is plenty to comment on since last week. All based on the best source of reliable information in the world, ie. prediction markets, and most precisely Polymarket where there are the most crucial markets on global events.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

In the US, there is always something going on.

Trump said his summit in Beijing with Xi Jinping had been rescheduled to May amid the Iran war. Trump also said he will host Xi in Washington later this year.

Comment: war or not, they need to meet eventually. Especially if the round 2 of the conflict goes against the US and the strait will continue to be controlled by Iran.

Trump directed the DHS to pay airport security staff, declaring the six-week DHS shutdown an “emergency situation”. In the meantime, Republicans in the House rejected an earlier passed bill by the Senate that would have opened the department as it failed to fund immigration enforcement. A stop-gap funding bill was introduced by Mike Johnson, but it is expected to fail in the Senate.

Comment: Polymarket tells us we shouldn’t expect the end of this saga anytime soon. I tend to agree with that assessment as limiting the immigration enforcement is in Democrats and more center-aligned Republicans interest.

We had a third round of “No Kings” protests in the US on Saturday, marching against Trump and his recent policies. More than 8 million people attended over 3,000 events across the country, while Trump’s approval rating is at -18.

Comment: Trump is making no friends by his recent actions which shows not only on his approval rating, but also midterms markets, as seen above, where a democrat sweep is now the most likely scenario.

NASA announced new plans to return the astronauts to the Moon before the ned of Trump’s term in 2028. Jared Isaacman, the new agency head, also said a new $20 billion base would be built on the Moon to allow for more reliance on the private sector. In the meantime 4 astronauts entered final preparations to loop the Moon in the preparatory mission to land on it and create a permanent human base there.

Comment: the haste is purely political, but I’m glad to see renewed progress in the space mission department.

A jury in LA found Meta and YouTube liable in a andmark social media addiction trial. A 20-year-old woman alleged their platforms are designed to be addictive, which harmed her mental health; they were ordered to pay $3m in total damages, while TikTok and Snap settled the case pre-trial.

Comment: it opens the doors for a lot of Americans to sue social media companies. But what is more, it opens a door to heavily regulate social media. Policies like the Australian ban are coming sooner than we think.

A federal judge in America blocked the Trump administration from blacklisting Anthropic. It is part of the Pentagon x Anthropic fight.

Comment: despite all the fight from Anthropic, they will have their models used for war as there is no other way to secure government contracts they so badly need.

The Americas

No news from the Americas this week. And Delcy is still looking strong to lead Venezuela long-term.

Asia

It’s a tough period for Asia.

Taiwan’s opposition leader will visit China in April. The opposition wants to regain power by pitching closer ties with China.

Comment: the strategy of a 1,000 cuts is working for China, especially consideirng the current energy crisis.

Many Asian countries are introducing measures to soften the blow of the acute energy crisis unfolding in the region.

Comment: COVID-style lockdowns will make a comeback.

Middle East & Africa

Iran war is definitely escalating.

I posted a deep dive on the issues:

As well as a commentary video on last week’s developments, so I’ll be brief here:

After the initial ceasefire message that postponed the ultimatum issued last weekend, we’ve heard only hawkish messages. The Us is sending more troops to the region as it mulls a wider ground operation.

Ceasefire efforts, culminated in a 15-point plan for Iran failed. Despite that, Trump extended his deadline for his ultimatum till April 6th.

However, by the end of the week, Houthi joined the fight as Iran is getting ready for the US escalation. The Houthi are also mulling the closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.

Generally the 2 sides threatened each other by floating targeting of energy sites and even American universities across the region.

By the end of the week, USS Tripoli with thousands of Marines arrived in the region, ready to engage Iran.

Comment: we are in for round 2 and it will be a consequential one as the US will try to free the Strait of Hormuz.

In the meantime the Lebanon invasion is going forward. While the culture minister of Lebanon is warning against the invasion that displaced over 1 million civilians, Netanyahu ordered the IDF to expand the existing security zone in the southern Lebanon.

Comment: this is a wider, regional war that won’t end anytime soon.

Europe

Despite all the action in the Middle East, it has also been a busy week in Europe.

Russia launched one of the biggest aerial attacks on Ukraine since the war began, sending 948 drones at targets across the country. The strikes hit a key power line in southern Ukraine which affected Moldova’s electricity supply.

Comment: between the three options Putin faces this summer, escalation seems most likely.

Lukashenko flew to Pyongyang to meet with Kim Jong Un. We have little details on the trip besides the Belarusian leader laying wreath on Mr Putin’s behalf at Kumsusan mausoleum, where North Korea’s former leaders lie.

Comment: Belarus, amid lack of western engagement, is surely moving towards Russia in the west vs east alignment.

The European Parliament approved a trade deal with the US on conditions that America lowers its rate on European goods to 15%, as promised, and Europe having a right to scrap the agreement in case its sovereignty is threatened by the US.

Comment: finally, some red lines from Europe with an actual threat to enforce them.

Giorgia Meloni conceded defeat in a referendum on judicial reform. Early results showed 54% of Italians opposed her proposal while 59% of Italians voted in the referendum.

Comment: no real comment from me as I didn’t track the event. However her defeat means weakening of the right-wing in Italy.

Austria proposed a social media restriction for young people, those under the age of 14.

Comment: as mentioned above, heavy social media regulation is coming; not only in the US, but worldwide.

Business, Finance & Economics

Also an interesting week in business and economics, with a bit of irony.

The OECD warned that global growth would be weakened by the Iran war related energy shock. It has forecasted the growth in 2026 would be 2.9%.

Comment: they are severely underestimating the impact of the energy shock.

Danone agreed to buy Huel, a British meal-replacement drinks company, for $1.2 billion. The drinks are supposedly popular with Ozempic users.

Comment: Huel was a decent replacement last I checked, interesting that such a giant is interested in the niche.

Wrap up

And that’s all for today. Stay strong and catch me here or on X.

Along with this narrative, we also saw main demands from the US and Iran. Next to a “kinetic negotiation” of war, a diplomatic track was opened. While there is a long way between opening a diplomatic track (eg. the diplomatic track in Ukraine war has been open since early 2025), we now have new information that is necessary to assess.

As there is a lot of conflicting information, I need to go through both aspects of the negotiation and derive the path we are on.

The Diplomatic Track

First news of an opening of a diplomatic track hit us on Monday with this post from Trump:

Since then we learned the respective position of the two sides with regards to ending the conflict.

The US (rumored):

1. Removal of all sanctions on Iran.

2. US assistance in advancing and developing a civilian nuclear project (electricity generation).

3. Removal of the threat of sanctions being reimposed.

4. Iran’s nuclear program is frozen under a defined framework.

5. Enriched uranium to remain, but under supervision and agreed limits.

6. Missile program to be addressed at a later stage, with limits on quantity and range.

7. Use of nuclear programs restricted to civilian/defensive purposes only.

8. Development of existing nuclear capabilities halted.

9. No further expansion of enrichment capabilities.

10. No production of weapons-grade nuclear material on Iranian soil.

11. All enriched material to be handed over to the IAEA within an agreed timeline.

12. Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow to be taken out of use (destroyed).

13. International monitoring and verification mechanisms enforced.

14. Gradual implementation tied to compliance.

15. Additional regional and security understandings between the parties.

Iranian response:

1. The enemy’s aggression and acts of assassination come to an end.

2. Objective conditions are established to ensure that the war will not reoccur.

3. The payment of damages and war reparations is guaranteed and clearly determined.

4. The end of the war is implemented across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved in this conflict throughout the region.

5. Iran’s exercise of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is its natural and legal right and guarantees for the implementation of the other party’s commitments must be recognized.

These seem pretty far apart, but the real conclusion is that both sides are rather still talking past each other.

Conclusion

From the US plan we can see that top priority is the nuclear issue. Almost all points in the plan are around that issue and offer solutions that would make the US comfortable. In addition, the US is offering clear concession by being ready to drop all sanctions on Iran in return.

Additionally, we can clearly see that the issue of proxy financing and ballistic missiles is pushed towards phase 2 that might never come. It’s a classic Trump device aimed at seeking the least common denominator in the negotiations.

On the other side we have Iran singing a completely different tune. They are saying that any ceasefire must ensure long-term deterrence (along with total peace across the region) and reparations for the war. However, they also propose a solution in the terms.

Iran can treat total sanctions relief as a form of reparations. Additionally they seek an official affirmation of its right to control the strait and extract fees from the vessels. It serves 2 purposes:

1. The affirmation of control in international regulations (UN could step in here) would enshrine deterrence in law.

2. Fees for transit would complete the reparations part.

That being said, there is no indication of nuclear alignment between the 2 sides. Our safest assumption here would be that if deterrence and reparations are established, Iran could agree to pre-war proposals, ie. some limits on enrichment, but with an explicit approval of the nuclear programs existence. We can also say that there is alignment on most points presented by the US, on condition that Iran’s points are affirmed. Here as well ballistic missiles and proxies are left alone.

The Fight Within

We also need to remember that on both sides there are factions that are softer and more hardline.

On the Iranian side, the softer faction would agree to more concessions on the nuclear side, but the Strait of Hormuz issue is non-negotiable at this point. The more hardline faction (most likely IRGC leadership) would likely not go beyond JCPOA, but with total sanctions removal and strait control affirmation.

On the US side, the softer faction (which surely Trump also belongs to), is keen to see the war end with a win on nuclear, and could be ready to compromise on the strait issue, however it is unlikely they will agree to a full Iranian control. The hardliners (ie. the deep state + Israel + Gulf countries) see free passage through the strait as non-negotiable, with the most hardline option being no concessions at all to Iran.

If the published points offer some sort of consensus view of both sides, we can see that the main point of contestation is the Strait of Hormuz issue.

The Kinetic Track

The diplomatic track is negotiations under fire. Here as well, both sides fight for different objectives.

Round 1

The US and Israel were aiming to disrupt the decision making process within the regime, as Israel did to Hezbollah through the pager operation and rapid decapitation of senior leadership. The aim was to significantly reduce fighting capability of the regime along with paralyzing its decision making center to force them into an ugly ceasefire negotiation.

Iran’s aim was vastly different. They expected this rapid airpower strategy and their aim was to survive decapitation, expel enemy forces from the Persian Gulf and establish control of the Strait of Hormuz.

The first round ended in the Iranian win. Despite having majority of previous senior leadership killed and having severely degraded military and economic capabilities, they managed to achieve their strategic goals. Arguably, the US is in a worse position than before the war - the regime turned more hardline, survived intensive air campaign, deterred US forces from its vicinity and established control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Round 2

In round 2, Iran needs to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz. Many analysts perceive Iranian “safe corridor for a fee” as a deescalation. After all it reestablishes some flow of traffic, in theory decreasing Iranian leverage over the global economy. In the meantime, it is phase 2 of their plan. They need to show the world that they can credibly hold the strait to force the rest of the world to affirm its control. It is in no ones interest to collapse the global economy. It is however in Iran’s interest to deny the enemy traffic and keep energy cost high to continue imposing costs on the enemy.

It’s a delicate balance they are seeking - hurt the global economy, but not so much so it collapses, while at the same time establish a new reality in the strait that they can benefit politically and economically from. Because in case of a total global economy collapse, they would not be able to extract fees and finance the country and the war.

On the other side, the US has 2 responses:

1. Deny Iran the ability to control the Strait of Hormuz by either launching an escort operation that can bring back meaningful traffic through the strait or some kind of a ground operation aiming to establish control of the Iranian shore and islands.

2. Affirm Iranian (partial) control of the strait and seek deescalation, pursuing maximalist goals in regards to key issue, ie. nuclear capability.

First choice is easier said than done. I postponed my detailed escort operation deep dive due to the emergence of the diplomatic track, however my research indicates that the US would be able to run a single convoy a day through the strait, compromising of up to 8 vessels.

Such an escort operation would require a destroyer fleet with air support, that would escort the ships all the way from the strait entry, to the ports and back. And this is without consideration for possible mines in the strait. Thus 1 convoy a day as the whole round trip would take a few days for each convoy, ie. there will be several convoys running at the same time, but in different stages (them being: entry, Persian Gulf passage, port load / reload, Persian Gulf return, exit through the strait, destroyer reloading).

Even if successful, such a solution would establish a joint control of the strait, however with Iran holding the better cards and being able to continually hurt the global economy as the US aligned traffic would be insufficient to alleviate the incoming energy shortage. 8 vessels is less than 10% of normal traffic.

It is this that leads me to believe a dual track of kinetic + diplomatic negotiations was opened. On the one hand, military assets continue to be sent to the region to allow for an escort operation and subsequent ground operation to retake the Strait of Hormuz, forced by the hardline faction. On the other hand, the softer faction opened a diplomatic track to get a feel for Iranian willingness to compromise. The opening of this track is itself interesting. Initially the US hoped it can scare Iran into concessions. However Iran, in line with its madman strategy, threatened the entire Gulf infrastructure. Its threat was believable, thus a narrative deescalation by opening the diplomatic track.

Ultimately, we need to answer 2 questions:

1. Can a diplomatic solution be reached before the most intense part of round 2?

2. Can the US win round 2? If so, then what?

Answers

Long story short is that I don’t believe the US is ready to affirm even partial Iranian control of the strait. Not only would such a solution enrage Gulf countries and Israel, but it would also establish a status quo that is worse than the one before the war and would be difficult for Trump to frame as a victory, even if it would resolve the nuclear issue.

I see the recent comments from some senators on the issue of boots on the ground as a sign of attempts at building consensus around the diplomatic track being made. However, it is still too early to tell whether these attempts are effective. The consensus is necessary for the diplomatic track to succeed as sanctions need to be dropped by the Congress. Strait control affirmation needs to be done through the UN. Trump cannot TACO unilaterally here. He needs broad consensus in Washington.

And here I have 3 reservations:

1. Trump is not good at building consensus in Washington. He is a polarizing outsider, less so than during his 1st term, but still. He never really needed to build one, especially under pressure of the global economy. His adversaries in Washington also have good arguments - it was Trump who left the JCPOA and it was Trump who failed in the initial negotiations. They can stick it to him and simply not agree to anything that offers more concessions than the original deal while getting nothing in return. After all, there is also the midterms angle at play; this war hurts MAGA.

2. The US is barely scratched. They temporarily lost a few bases, some equipment and a few lives of American soldiers. I don’t want to lack empathy here as every live lost is incredibly important, but the losses do not compare to any other US-led wars in the past. Also the US has plenty of options to escalate and unleash its military might on Iran.

3. The US is not as affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as Asia or Europe. They can try and mitigate the worst of the crisis for its allies, while themselves being somewhat shielded from the worst consequences of the closure for at least a few months. Yes, the US will still have inflation, some shortages and potentially a recession. But none of this is existential. They can sell and force distribution of oil & gas between allies so that the burden sharing is more fair and controlled. They can send aid to avert crisis in the most affected countries, regardless of their affiliation to avoid a regional domino effect.

For Iran, no affirmation of strait control means no reparation and no deterrence. While deterrence can be established by eg. guarantees from permanent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, UK and the US), there is no clear solution for the reparations issue as long as there is no consensus in Washington. Iran knows it is a net winner of the round 1, so if they are to give up the control of the strait, they would need to present other win to the domestic public. Especially since both sides represent a posture of readiness for round 2.

Round 2

I believe that due to the circumstances, Iran has a strategic initiative at the moment. Thus Iran’s objectives for round 2 will be of mostly defensive nature:

1. Survive continuing strike campaign.

2. Maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz while expanding the list of nations that can use it for a fee, forcing soft American allies to abandon the US in favor of avoiding acute energy shortage.

3. Deny the US ability to retake even partial control of the strait.

The US at the same time will go on the offensive to retake the strategic initiative:

1. Continue to limit Iranian ability to project power in the strait by joint US-Israeli strike campaigns.

2. Try to retake the Strait of Hormuz to deny Iran’s only strong leverage.

Here, both sides have strong escalation options. The US can do anything, from an escort operation to a ground invasion. However, Iran can also do anything, from engaging Houthi in Yemen to close the Bab-al-Mandeb strait, to striking energy and desalination infrastructure in the Gulf as a deterrent to even striking the Suez canal to establish total control of Gulf flows. Not to mention striking convoys when they start to run. For now both sides agreed that energy infra should be left out of the equation, establishing soft red lines that both agree on. This consensus can be easily destroyed, but with Trump taco on Monday, I don’t see it as extremely likely.

Thus my expectation for the next few weeks is twofold. On the one hand I expect the diplomatic track to be pushed hard, especially in the media, but with no fruition as both sides are too far apart on key issues of deterrence x nuclear. On the other hand I expect more assets to be moved into the region, including allied vessels from countries like UK and France.

Marines and 82nd Airborne Division will most likely be used to help establish control of the disputed UAE / Iranian islands as such an escalation is a step below a ground invasion of “pure” Iranian territory. Islands will then be used to aid in an escort operation (early threat detection, surface-to-air missiles), in which a coalition of countries will participate.

Chances of success? That’s a topic for another deep dive, as is any prediction of round 3 and beyond. But these conclusions alone let us position on prediction markets with enough conviction.

Prediction Markets

Since I believe that both countries are ready to fight it out in round 2, short term ceasefire No position is the main one I am holding:

Considering that at least one Marines unit has an ETA of end of April, we can expect round 2 to last longer than round 1 (which lasted just over 3 weeks). The situation will be dynamic during that time and there are chances for de escalation, as well as escalation depending on the progress on both sides. Disclaimer: I also hold some longer dated No positions, however I bought them at the beginning of the conflict and for now I am comfortable holding them. Fair value of end of April ceasefire: 30% based on the current assessment, taking into account that the US might be quick to compromise in case of early failure in the escort operation.

Second market I am holding a position in is US forces in Iran by the end of the year:

I hold Yes on the end of year market, however I don’t like any earlier strikes as end of April is a tight deadline, considering some Marines will only then arrive in the theater. Fair value by the end of the year: 80%.

Lastly, I am still holding No shares on regime change in Iran by the end of the year:

I believe that the regime’s ability to continue the confrontation is a proof of its resilience. I will only reassess my positions once I see larger US troops mobilization that will suggest a wider ground campaign. For now there are no signs of that thus fair value of No is at 80%

There are no markets on outside militias, excluding the Kurds, to enter the war. If they appear, I would be inclined to get a Yes position as I believe some turmoil at the border done through proxies might aid US effort in round 2.

Wrap up

That’s all for today. It was an unexpected article, but Monday’s developments forced me to present a coherent framework before I can engage in the Strait of Hormuz analysis. I hope you enjoyed the piece and I’d be happy to discuss it with you here or on X. Don’t be afraid to comment, the situation is extremely complex and there are no bad questions.

Stay strong and see you soon!

From our point of view this screams escalation. Both PMs look like they tried to front-run Trump's address, expecting bad news.

With that in mind, let's look at prediction markets.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances remain stable at 36% and 52% for end of April and end of May respectively.

A lot depends on next actions from the US as traders expect either a quick operation, followed by an exit with a claim of victory or a major escalation that would indicate we have months of fighting ahead.

For now, the only good news is that China seems to have gotten involved in the peace process, which is probably why the Yes price remains fairly high despite hawkish messaging from the US.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, but traders are still bullish we will see 20+ ships passing it in a single day by the end of the month.

It is in Iran's interest to resume traffic - for one, it (barely) sustains the global economy while imposing massive costs, but more importantly it affirms its control of the strait. And with each day passing, traders are less and less bullish on the US escort operation. Seems like the current consensus is some other type of operation that would give the US leverage over Iran:

Energy is flat due to the general uncertainty, however take a look at Urals price. It's way above Brent and WTI now, showing that Asian countries are keen on tapping Russian oil, as its composition (API gravity and sourness) is very similar to the Gulf oil:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Chances for the US forces to enter Iran dropped significantly as traders were expecting an imminent announcement.

However, even more troops are moving to the region as we are awaiting Trump's address. It is a classic spike we see on all geopolitical markets. Traders are starved for a definitive information and any lack of momentum in the media immediately tanks the Ys price. That being said, the situation on the ground now is even more indicative of an imminent US action on the ground.

And everything points to it not being Kharg Island:

#4 Regional Expansion

UAE inched above Saudi Arabia in countries that are most likely to join the war, based on recent reporting on its willingness to engage and lack of rumors from Saudi Arabia.

However, both countries moved lower, most likely on lack of coordination from the US. Usually, the US was open when waging war and often it gathered a wide coalition of countries to give its action legitimacy. Trump operates differently, which often leads to alienation, unless others are forced to join.

We also see a general drop in regional escalation markets, however we believe the strong downward move is an overreaction of the market on confusing messaging from the US as ceasefire markets stayed flat:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Lastly, Iran regime fall market moved close to our fair value assessment as recent messages from the US indicate they might resign from their goal of regime change.

Maybe our message of Iranian resilience finally hit the White House. We wil nevertheless continue to monitor the situation on this market.

Wrap up

That's all for today. We are awaiting Trump's announcement as well as the long weekend. We hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

So let's see how the markets are positioned for the coming round 2.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The ceasefire markets reacted as expected - we moved from 30% chance to 34% chance of a ceasefire by the end of April, significantly below last week's reaction.

Both sides remain far apart when it comes to demands and additional 10 days won't change anything. We know that the US is sending more equipment and troops for round 2 and while we know little about Iranian movements, their messaging indicates they are ready as well.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed as Iran now dictates who, and at what price, can pass the strait.

The market on 20+ ships passing in a single day moved significantly up, to 71% chances on the news that Iran will let 20 more ships through. However, it is unlikely they will pass in a single day.

This is confirmed by the escort operation market, where the price of Yes didn't follow the price action above:

Market expectations are laser focused on a ground operation now rather than a risky and complex escort operation. And prices of energy follow, with WTI closing above $100 for the first time since 2022 and the price of Urals inching above Brent as Asian countries try to tap in favorable types of barrels amid shortages:

#3 Boots On The Ground

As all signs point towards some kid of a ground operation, chances of US boots on the ground reached almost 80%, before dropping slightly on Monday TACO, only to end up at 75% hours later.

We now know that the US has over 50,000 troops in the theater, ready to deploy. It's now the direction of the operation that is unclear. For now, traders doubt it will be Kharg Island as the price action on the market is sideways for a week now:

#4 Regional Expansion

Another option for an escalation would be for either the UAE or Saudi Arabia to join in the fight.

Considering that these countries are the most hawkish in the region, it would be logical for them to join, especially so for the UAE, which could gain disputed islands in the process.

However, such an action carries risks. The Houthi have already joined the fight and in case of any escalation they can decide to close the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, as they did post October 7th. 28% feels a bit low for us in such a scenario. But the Houthi have other choices - there is an equal chance they will decide to attack Saudi Arabia on the ground:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Lastly, while almost every geopolitical market on Iran experiences volatility, the regime fall one is flat on any news lately.

It feels a bit repetitive, but it is a testament to the regime's resilience.

Wrap up

That's all for today. We expect to see the beginning of round 2 around Easter. The markets will be closed for longer, thus the Trump administration will have plenty of opportunity to calm them before the open.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Today we will focus on the main Iran-related markets and how they moved throughout the weekend. As usual, with proper context and analysis of traders' behavior.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

After the weekend, the ceasefire market for April 30 reached a new low while the end of May ceasefire ventured into a not likely territory with Yes price at 46c.

Over the weekend we heard a lot of news about some kind of a ground operation near Iran. Considering that the escalation of military operations works against any ceasefire effort, we saw an understandable move downwards.

Additionally, we've been saying here repeatedly that Iran will be highly distrustful about any negotiations with America alone. This approach is being validated now.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

We've moved to analyzing the end of April market as we are at the end of the month, and at first glance, we should be somewhat optimistic about the opening of the strait.

However, 20 ships is less than 20% of usual daily traffic and majority of that number, if achieved, will go through the Iranian route, affirming its control of the waterway. Thus we believe that if achieved, this development will be hawkish for the war rather than dovish.

Our approach makes even more sense when we position it against chances of a US escort operation by the end of April:

Considering all of the above, it is clear why energy prices are still going up, despite all the efforts to stop it:

#3 Boots On The Ground

US boots on the ground chances hit a new high of 79% by the end of the year on hawkish messages from the US.

By some estimates we now have around 50,000 US troops in the theater, ready to engage at a moments notice. It is still unclear what will be their mission; for now traders expect a Kharg Island invasion, but it's far from a given as it's been trading in the low 30s for a week now:

Additionally, there are little signs a wider ground operation, including some regional militias, will begin as chances for the support of the Kurds remain low:

#4 Regional Expansion

Starting today, we will also track regional expansion of the conflict as there are also chances the US ground operation will involve taking over some UAE/Iran disputed islands.

For now Saudi Arabia is a clear frontrunner in chances of an offensive engagement, however we believe that UAE is undervalued on this market. Their economy and image depend heavily on safety, and now their best chance is Iranian regime fall.

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Speaking of regime fall, Iran seems to hold quite nicely as chances of their fall still hoover around 35% by the end of the year.

There is of course a lot of narrative peddling about how bad it is in Iran, but such an entrenched regime lives on more than hopium. They seem well-prepared for the conflict and there was not a single breakthrough suggesting Iran might fall anytime soon.

Wrap up

We are pretty much at the brink of the ground operation right now. The next phase of the conflict will most likely revolve around the Strait of Hormuz issue and we will track that closely. In the meantime we are also looking at Asia, where more measures are being introduced to soften the blow of the energy shortage.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

We are once again entering the weekend with escalation in mind, so let's take a look a the prediction markets to understand what the weekend can bring us.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

We are entering the weekend with ceasefire chances at 40%, the lowest level since Trump's dovish message on Monday.

It's the second week in the row in which Monday brought a significant rise in ceasefire chances, due to certain narratives being pushed, only to see hawkish developments in the subsequent days that bring the ceasefire chances down.

We are already starting to see that Trump's narratives have lower and lower impact on the markets, pretty soon we shall see the same on prediction markets.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed as chances for 20+ ships to transit the strait in March dropped to the all time low of 11%.

For a few days now there are no news on any escort operation, thus the chance sof one happening remain flat:

The combination of the above sent energy commodities higher, erasing almost all the drop that happened on Monday:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Chances for the US boots on the ground rose slightly, erasing all the effect of ceasefire talk.

Outside of more soldiers being sent to the region, there are rumors in DC that we might see first boots on the ground this weekend. However, chances are the target might not be Kharg Island, this no change in chances there as the market stayed flat on the news:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

Chances of regime change in Iran remain elevated, but flat on this week's news.

Dual track negotiations (kinetic + diplomatic) are ongoing, suggesting no regime change can happen anytime soon.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Mojtaba Khamenei's chances for staying in as the Supreme Leader of Iran dropped slightly below 50%.

Despite ongoing negotiations, Israel is still keen on eliminating senior Iranian leadership. However, we expect the new Ayatollah to be kept in a deep, safe place.

Wrap up

Since yesterday hawkish narratives are back. Ceasefire chances dropped again below 50% and US boots on the ground are more and more likely. All the while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and first Asian economies start to experience massive blowback.

We are entering the weekend with low expectations when it comes to peace. Rumors are, we should rather expect escalation and a big one. We will be watching closely.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Trump famously loves to escalate over the weekend as the markets are closed and he has 2 days to fix the narrative. Will it happen this time? We'll see, based on what prediction markets tell us.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Since yesterday, ceasefire chances dropped from 51% to 44%, making a resolution to this conflict less likely than not by the end of April.

Part of the move can be explained by continuation of the hawkish narrative in the media. The rest can be explained by no news on the diplomatic track. Ultimately, prices hovering around 50c indicate that there is still a lot of uncertainty, with clarity expected in the next 4 days.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

We are nearing end of March and with the Strait of Hormuz being effectively closed, chances of 20+ ships passing the strait in a single day by the end of the month dropped to 14%.

Traders expected to see some headlines about either increased traffic that is approved by Iran or an escort operation. For now we have neither and the market is adjusting sharply to the reality on the ground:

With no progress on any issue, energy prices start to go back up:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Chances for US forces on the ground continue to rise after a Monday drop as recent hawkish messages include taking over Iranian islands.

Marines and / or 82nd Airborne Division would be necessary for such an action, be it Kharg Island (in plans, but seemingly less likely), or other islands, including UAE / Iran contested land:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

Amid all the uncertainty the regime survival chances improved this week.

A recent small rise can be attributed to Israel eliminating IRGC Naval Commander responsible for the Strait of Hormuz blockade. However, by now most traders realize that the Iranian regime is bigger than 1 person (or even hundreds of persons).

#5 Next Supreme Leader

For the first time since we started covering this market, Mojtaba Khamenei has more chances than not on staying in as the Supreme Leader.

Considering that the diplomatic track is now open, the US and Israel might not be willing to jeopardize any progress by eliminating the core of the current senior leadership. At least till the effort is being pushed, Khamenei junior might feel relatively safe. Relatively, because at least some factions on the US / Israel side might want to press on the regime change goals despite global blowback.

Wrap up

Since yesterday hawkish narratives are back. Ceasefire chances dropped again below 50% and US boots on the ground are more and more likely. All the while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and first Asian economies start to experience massive blowback.

From Australia where over 500 gas stations run out of diesel, to Philippines where national energy emergency was issued due to quickly depleting oil reserves and no obvious replacement.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.