As we had a little break, today we have a classic mix of geopolitics, politics, technology and social issues that should bring you up to speed with global developments.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Mullahs Live To See Another Day

Violent protests in Iran, combined with encouraging comments from Trump, made a lot of traders think the regime change might be coming.

The chances of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by the end of the month went as high as 30%, before trending down to the current 9%, after an apparent deescalation between Iran and the US.

One could say that 30% was overly optimistic, but we do know that Trump held off the strikes at the last minute. Chances are, this isn't the last time this year we hear about Iranian regime change.

#2 The Consolation Prize

One could say that Trump got what he wanted. But we do know that such an action never feels quite right.

Machado met with Trump and gave him her Nobel Peace Prize. She hoped for a path towards Venezuela presidency, but all she got for now is a nice swag bag from team Trump.

In the end, Trump respects strength.

#3 Unclear Situation

Portuguese elections are in 2 days and the situation couldn't be less clear.

After Mendes lost his pole position this year, Seguro came out as a clear favorite to win, despite the volatility in the first round winner market. But we do feel that the market might be once again overconfident.

The polls are extremely close in this extraordinary election, a first in decades that will go to the second round.

#4 Slop Squared

The first news about possible ads in ChatGPT was leaked over a month ago.

But now we see unusual action on the end of March market as chances increased from 22% to 64% on no apparent news. Will we see ads soon? Probably, as OpenAI-related markets were filled with insiders recently.

#5 Not So Fast

Someone is not convinced we will see over 2,000 measles cases this year, despite Metaculus forecast and early numbers being high.

We are not sure it is a good time to oppose the case as there are no announcements on any new measures aimed at containing the spread - maybe it's a buying opportunity?

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Besides that we examine US GDP growth and take an industry specific case under consideration - it should be crucial to our sports betting fans.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Arctic Escapades

As the pressure mounts on Denmark and Greenland, traders see a path forward, giving 34% chances of a del by the end of the quarter.

While we see end of March as a really tight deadline, in our opinion traders are on a right track - ultimately Denmark is a staunch ally of the US and will accommodate its wishes. But only after it takes something for itself; that's realpolitik.

#2 Cold Feet

After an extremely bullish streak, traders are increasingly convinced there will be no US strikes on Iran by the end of the month.

The Trump administration has been threatening action for a while now, but all it managed to do is create an impressive confusion. Supposedly even senior European diplomats are confused.

We consider traders more sober than the masses, and now they are pulling back, inflating the no strike odds in the process - are they right? Or did they fall for the confusion tactic? We shall see soon enough.

#3 Truth vs Markets

Yesterday we learned that the Phase II of the Gaza ceasefire is live... or did we?

Traders initially sent the odds way higher, but then some sharps realized that the announcement doesn't meet the resolution criteria. It was not announced by both Israel and Hamas (yet). And it is not implemented, yet. Any of the two happen ,the market can resolve. But for now it seems that the Phase II of the Gaza ceasefire is a mirage ;)

#4 Moderately High

After a small bump, traders now expect to see the US GDP growth for 2025 at 2.0-2.5% range.

The highest bracket on the market started to rise after Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate forecasted 5.3% GDP growth for Q4 2025. But the market is about the whole 2025, and estimation is more nuanced than taking an average of Q1-Q4 rates. We guess some traders are in for a surprise.

#5 Sports Event Contract Case Unclear

For some reason, the odds on SCOTUS accepting sports event contract case dropped significantly.

We didn't find any news that could explain the sudden odds movement - we will be on the lookout for any news around the topic as it is important for our industry!

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Outside of domestic politics, we are looking at the Middle East today, where we see strong probabilities of action in Iran as well as Phase II ceasefire in Gaza.

Lastly we once again examine the Portuguese election and showcase new monthly markets for measles - the outlook is rather bleak here.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 The Reckoning Day

Traders believe we will see the SCOTUS ruling on Trump tariffs soon, giving it 85% probability before the end of the month.

We have rumors that we can expect the news as soon as today. However the overall vibe is not optimistic - not only traders see little chances of Trump winning, but also Trump himself wrote that reversing tariffs might be impossible.

The market on the ruling was initially cautiously optimistic, but the odds dipped to ca. 30% after the oral arguments indicated that SCOTUS might go against the administration.

#2 Waiting In Anticipation

While the world awaits Trump's action regarding Iran, traders are already trying to anticipate follow-up moves.

There is now close to 50% chance we will see a coup attempt in Iran by the end of June. As defined, some state actor or faction would need to try to take power from the current one.

However, after days of no action (or even preparation) from the US, the protests are not as widespread as before. Rumors also are the regime will start hanging the protesters it caught today.

#3 Gaza Is Back In The Headlines

While situation in Iran is still unstable, Gaza might be looking at phase II of the ceasefire.

There was a sharp spike in phase II odds before January 31st recently, giving us 46% chance we will see the phase II. Rumors are we might get an announcement today, but not everyone seems convinced based on the price action. After all, we've already seen a few false flags in phase II markets.

#4 An Amazing Upset In The Making

Portuguese presidential election continues to surprise as the former 80% favorite to win now has less than 10% chances of victory.

After Christmas break, Mendes started to slide in the polls in favor of Seguro and Cotrim. Part of the reason is lack of online presence which we highlighted earlier. However, since we last reported on the issue, it seems that Cotrim has some troubles amid the sexual harassment allegations while Seguro seems to be cruising towards the second round.

#5 Monthly Measles Markets

After last year's measles markets surprised us all and attracted quite a lot of volume, this year Polymarket increased granularity providing monthly markets for increased forecast accuracy.

And what can we say, the picture for January looks bleak. Traders are virtually certain we will see over 200 cases in January, putting us on track to beat last year's record. And to say even more, traders now give 42% chance we will see over 5,000 case this year!

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

But jokes aside, today we cover the domestic, the international and even 1 election! Plenty of interesting markets, sharp moves and volatile situations. Come on in and stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 On The Way Out?

The odds of Pam Bondi being the first to leave the Trump Cabinet jumped sharply.

Traders adjusted their positioning on the news that Trump perceives her as weak and ineffective after her handling of the Epstein files. However, shortly after the news broke, Trump defended his AG. And we already see a slight dip in the odds.

#2 A Case Of The Century

Pam Bondi might still be useful to Trump after the news that the DoJ is investigating Jerome Powell.

The investigation is into his Congress testimony about the costs of the Fed building renovation. But the real motive is the interest rate - Trump wants it significantly lower while Powell is all about the central bank independence. Trump also wants to show to the upcoming Fed chair that it is no joke.

If the Trump administration decides to move ahead with the case we are in for a SCOTUS ruling at the end of the road. And the case will determine the role of the Fed.

And while the situation plays out, Powell might play defiant and stay on the board after his chairman term ends, going against the tradition, but being fully in his rights to do so - his term as a governor ends only in 2028. After all, he hired a really aggressive law firm to defend him.

#3 Moar Strikes

Yesterday it was Somalia, now it is Colombia.

Trump definitely seems trigger-happy as traders struggle to figure out his actions. The move on the Colombia market is based on no news as the last info around Colombia strikes was 4 days ago. Maybe someone has a good fundamental thesis?

We, in contrast, are waiting for the Colombia election this year. Sun Tzu would approve of waiting, but will Trump?

#4 Peace Efforts

Traders are cautiously bullish on European security guarantees to Ukraine after a meeting last week.

The coalition of the willing agreed on a framework of security guarantees to Ukraine in case of peace. While we are a long way from them becoming tangible, they seem as an essential part of any future peace deal between the two countries.

#5 From An Underdog To The Favorite

How the fate has turned for Antonio Jose Seguro.

Only a month ago he was an afterthought in the race for the Belem Palace. Now his is the frontrunner in every poll this year and he should cruise to the second round after the vote this Sunday. Especially since the other favorite to advance is now struggling with a sexual harassment allegation.

We perceive it though as a cheap move and not really consequential for the election results.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Barely, but we also managed a segment on rules today - give it a look, it might save you a lot of trouble!

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Iranian Protests

Despite almost no coverage from Iran since January 8th, traders are more and more convinced we will see the fall of the Islamic Republic regime soon.

Inflation (and general economic conditions) protests are happening daily in Iran since December 28th. Initially peaceful, now reports say that thousands of Iranians died as protests turned more and more violent.

However, it is now difficult to differentiate between propaganda and real videos from Iran - we see more volatility in Iran related markets.

#2 Strike Frenzy

It's not a mater of if, or even when. It is a matter of who's next!

Traders are no longer predicting if the US strikes - now they are predicting who is next. And despite strong media focus on Iran, traders see Somalia as the favorite to receive some American military tech. After initial strikes on January 8th, there is clearly an expectation of a longer campaign against ISIS.

One can wonder if America isn't stretching itself too thin...

#3 Portuguese Meltdown

Luis Marques Mendes was probably looking for a moving company in December and only 2 weeks later he can wave goodbye to the Belem Palace.

In a shocking reversal, recent polls in Portugal presidential election show new favorites - Cotrim, Seguro and Ventura. This three are now inches away in what is shaping up to be the most interesting election in Portugal... ever?

#4 Venezuela On The Brink

At least someone is not convinced we've seen it all in Venezuela.

Despite some promising reports from Venezuela, we recently had a spike in Delcy odds to be out of power by the end of the year. A country like that surely can be volatile. It remains to be seen if it was a sharp trade or a missclick.

#5 Rules Above All

Morocco prime minister market might become another dispute.

Initially, the market had a typo in the rules, stating the market is for end of 2026, despite not having such info in the title. Now, with the title updated, the rules poise another challenge - by wording, Aziz must cease to become prime minister between October 2 and December 31 2026.

Despite this, traders feel certain about the outcome, while we urge you to always read the rules!

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Outside of the past, we are looking forward to Trump x Machado meeting and examining potential action in Mexico. We also debate a bit the new GDP growth projection and start the conversation about the midterms. Or should we rather say Trump started it a few weeks ago? Find out below!

Top Movers

#1 Iran On The Brink?

Despite the ongoing situation in Iran, traders were rather bearish we will see Khamenei. They were wrong.

Jus a few hours ago the supreme leader of Iran had an official speech in which he accused the US and Trump of sowing unrest in the country. This accusation comes as Iranian protests escalate, Trump's comments add pressure and Reza Pahlavi is urging Iranians to protest even harder from his American villa.

Iran, to counter leaks and western influences, cut internet access in the whole country.

#2 Whatever It Takes

Well, Trump is meeting Machado and he mentioned that he wouldn't mind Machado sharing the prize with him.

Yes holders must believe Machado is willing to do whatever it takes to take power in Venezuela. It must have been tough, after years leading the opposition, she was judged as unserious and not respected enough to lead the country.

#3 Mexico In The Crosshairs

And it seems that Trump didn't have enough and is looking for more operations in the western hemisphere.

Traders seem to believe Trump - he said that land operations might begin soon in Mexico to counter drug cartels. Now Mexico is a lot better country to target when focus are drugs, but we also need to remember that Trump is not a fan of the current president of Mexico.

2026 is only starting, right?

#4 Higher

Productivity gains from AI, reckless AI capex spend or very massaged numbers?

We might never know, but Atlanta Fed is now projecting 5.4% GDP growth in Q4 2025. Seems a bit shocking, not only for us, but also for traders. We a surely awaiting the release to examine what hides inside this number. After all it's the highest since Q4 2021, which had the base advantage of pandemic 2020.

#5 A Fun Bribe

Last year Trump issued an Executive Order that ordered the AG to expedite the process of rescheduling weed from Schedule I to Schedule III.

Schedule III means that medical use is allowed, opening doors for medical THC being available across the US. With midterms around the corner, we are pretty sure what is the motive for this.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

2026 is quite a ride already and today might be the first day without any major development. Or are we being too optimistic? Well, at least today, the future does not look so bleak.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Is Delcy Consolidating Power?

Traders are more and more certain Delcy Rodriguez will be the leader of Venezuela till the end of the year.

The former VP, now current president, was apparently hand-picked by Trump to lead the country post Maduro arrest. However, Venezuela is full of weapons and people who know how to use them - it just might be that we see overconfidence rather than foresight.

#2 Peace After All?

Only yesterday we focused on a boiling Middle East. Now it seems we might have phase 2 of peace in Gaza.

The chances rose sharply after Times of Israel published an article describing how Trump plans to unveil the Board of Peace, along with other elements of the phase 2 of the ceasefire, next week.

#3 Gambling Issues

Last year many prediction market traders were baffled to see that a new bill specified gambling loss cap at 90%, leaving many professional punters in the red, despite having a pre-tax profit.

While the regulation shouldn't apply to prediction markets, which are financial markets, gambling is close to many people in the forecasting space. We want to highlight that the market can act as insurance for punters!

#4 Measles 2026

After measles turned out to spread wildly across the US, surprising many forecasters and traders, now we are in for part 2.

Currently both forecasters on Metaculus, as well as Polymarket traders see just above 2,000 cases as a base case for 2026. Last year though, the initial forecast was way lower than the final print - let's hope it's not the case this year.

#5 Discord IPO

We've been hearing rumors about Discord IPO for quite some time. Now it seems we are getting it by end of June.

Yesterday a rumor leaked that Discord filed confidentially for an IPO. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan are leading the effort, that could still be suspended, as supposedly deliberations are ongoing. Traders though see the rumor as a good signs things are going in the IPO direction.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

So today we are trying to figure out what the moves across various markets on Middle East tell us. With a small bonus of a curious Epstein files resolution.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Another Longshot Hit

The truth machine glitched again, this time in relation to Epstein files.

Traders were pretty sure we won't see another batch anytime soon, assured by a sheer volume of files to comb through. Yet some... ambitious trader keeps constant track on the files and even a single change in the repository is enough to resolve the market. I guess be cautious about who you are trading against.

#2 Tensions In Iran

Reports on protests in Iran are making some traders more and more confident we will see another showdown between Israel and Iran.

But that's not all - a strong posture from president Trump surely helped. In the meantime the protests grown in severity while we hear the first rumors about cities falling. These are surely false for now, but they add an interesting piece to the whole situation.

#3 Iran In The Crosshairs

The UK is also potentially joining the action.

The market on the UK designating the IRGC a terrorist organization rose sharply on no news. But we know that the US has been moving military equipment to and through the UK bases, indicating that the UK might take part in some action against Iran. And this might push the topic of IRGC back into the news cycle there, as it was brought up last year around the 12 day war.

#4 The African Front

Adding to tensions in the Middle East, East Africa is also experiencing some turmoil.

We noticed strange movement on the Somaliland recognition market. Surely there are a few candidates for recognition, but many see the Somaliland situation sidelined with the current situation in Iran - who is wrong?

#5 Lebanon?

On top of everything the odds of Israel launching a major ground offensive against Lebanon rose sharply.

This happens despite the fact that a supposed Israeli insider is building a position on Israel to strike Iran by the end of the month market. Looking back at all the Middle East markets highlighted today, it seems that traders are sure some action is coming, but are completely clueless about the direction.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

This is a Venezuela-heavy brief as we also examine Machado's chances of returning to Venezuela any time soon to fight for power. Outside of the western hemisphere we also noticed a sharp change in the odds of the next president of Portugal.

Lastly we look at Apple as some believe 2026 will be a year of surprises.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Show Must Go On

To anyone who was expecting a swift trial we have some bad news.

This story captures the change in sentiment perfectly - while it might be tempting to rush a case like this, the last one that was even remotely similar (the Noriega case) took 20 months between an arrest and the beginning of a jury trial. There is plenty to happen and even more news stories to push, along with the message of the US military greatness.

Now it is likely we shall know the date on March 17th as this is the next scheduled date for Maduro to appear in court.

#2 Iconic Mugshots

While the Trump administration juices the Maduro capture story, they could at least entertain us with his mugshot, but it seems we won't see it soon.

Traders were also initially bullish to see the mugshot soon, but now not only don't they see it released in 3 days, but also the January 17th market chances are now at 21%.

Till we see it we need to be content with Trump's iconic mugshot. Or AI generated photos.

#3 Can Machado Gain The Power?

For now it seems that the biggest loser of the operation in Venezuela is the opposition.

Neither the legitimate president, nor the opposition leader Machado, who recently won a Nobel Peace Prize that she dedicated to Trump, are taken seriously in the conversations about holding power in the country. Per the leaks Machado lacks seriousness and respect in Trump's eyes, but more importantly, she didn't refuse to accept the Nobel Peace Prize.

Imagine spending your life fighting the regime, crying for a US intervention, only to be sidelined when it finally happens.

#4 Portugal's Contested Election

On a lighter note, we have a tight election coming in Portugal, where 4 candidates are within the margin of error to advance to the second round.

Recent polls somewhat stabilized, showing PSD aligned Mendes and Chega leader Ventura advancing to the second round, but the fresh poll from CNN Portugal shows neither advancing. This extremely close race will happen on January 18th, with a very likely second round scheduled for February 8th.

#5 New Apple Product This Year?

Lastly, for some reason traders believe we will see a new product line from Apple this year.

The company is rather famous for lack of any leaks regarding its new products. However, the enthusiasm on the market might be explained by rumors of a foldable iPhone. But is it enough to resolve this market? We are not entirely sure after reading the rules.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

On top of that we are taking a closer look on TrumpRX as well as a possible government shutdown.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 The Struggle For Power Is On

After the US military took Maduro from Venezuela to face American justice, there is a question of who will lead Venezuela now.

Trump on his press conference said that the US will run Venezuela for the foreseeable future. However, at least officially, there needs to be a head of the Venezuelan state. For now, traders are betting on Maduro's VP, Delcy Rodriguez, but plenty can happen by the end of the year.

#2 No Elections

As the power struggle goes on, traders are skeptical we will see an election in Venezuela anytime soon.

During the press conference, Trump was not shy to admit that the US might run Venezuela for years as it rebuilds the critical infrastructure and extracts oil. While Trump promised the profits will go towards the Venezuelan people, we all know how such things go. However, it's hard to imagine Venezuelans will be worse off than under Maduro - the country has been a total disaster.

#3 Why Not Both?

In the meantime, Iran is experiencing the largest anti-government protest in a long while.

However, as always, there are 2 sides to the story. One thing remains sure though - not only did Trump warn Iran that any violence against the protesters will be met with an American response (presumably a strike), but also military equipment is being flown to Europe, indicating the US is getting ready to act if necessary.

Subscribe for more alpha ;)

#4 Trump Pharmacy Is Coming

After a brief slump in odds, traders once more see strong chances Trump will launch his pharmacy project this month.

For now all we see is a landing page with a promise of a launch this month. Trump is no Elon, but he is also liberal when it comes to deadlines. He even said recently that he has none.

#5 Another Shutdown Averted?

After the historically long shutdown, chances are we will avert the next one.

The record shutdown from last year was ended by a continuing resolution till the January 30th - if the Congress fails to agree on another continuing resolution or a proper budget bill, we can see another partial shutdown by the end of the month.

However traders are skeptical. Are you?

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

As thousands of markets resolve, there are at least a few interesting reversals where fortunes were made and lost. We cover the biggest of them today, along with a couple of rogue traders.

Additionally we expose a wash trading / airdrop farming circle on a niche geopolitical market - look below and learn how to identify them.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Better Late Than Never

As 2026 arrived, large amount of markets are due to resolve - 31st of December is the cut-off not only for monthly markets, but also for quarterly and annual ones.

This one was slowly approaching 0 since late September. However, it turns out that there was a US strike on November 29th! Or at least some sources claim there was one. The situation is ambiguous, but Polymarket clarified the strike counts as legitimate.

#2 Rules Make All The Difference

Another interesting end of year case came to light on the Morocco Prime Minister market.

Before, there was no year in the title of the market and most traders assumed the market is about 2025. However, the rules clearly stated that the market is about end of 2026. A few traders noticed it yesterday and bought up majority of open interest as there will be an election in Morocco this year and the prime minister is expected to change by the end of the year.

Even nowadays, there are plenty of missed opportunities on prediction market!

#3 European California

One traders bought a lot of Yes shares on billionaire wealth tax in California markets.

As we learn that many billionaires adjusted their tax residency recently to avoid a potential wealth tax in California, one trader decided it's enough for them to believe it will pass. What can we say, we applaud the conviction!

#4 Elon's Deadline

Last week we highlighted here that Elon promised us Grok 4.20 by Christmas, as we know that Elon never keeps to his deadlines

And expectedly, now even the January 15th market nuked, from over 75% chance of a release to 14% chance at the time of this article. Truly amazing stuff, especially since traders didn't suddenly realize Elon's deadline are fake. They are following a potential xAI insider.

#5 Wash Trading Or Airdrop Famring?

At first glance the Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II market looks like a pretty healthy market with over $40,000 in volume.

However when we look more closely we see big spreads and unusual odds movement. Only a deeper look at top holders reveals what is happening here - all top holders have a nick that look like "NameSurname1234". It's a wash trading / airdrop farming circle. The wash trader / farmer uses specific naming scheme to identify their wallets easily.

As Polymarket airdrop rumors intensify, we can expect to see more of such behavior. And when a market is full of wash traders / farmers, chances are the offered odds are way off of fair value.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Today, to honor good moods we don't comment on any war markets, but there are plenty of interesting movements across political and cultural markets. One is even set for a fiery dispute! This and more in today's Morning Brief.

Stay ahead of the game!

Top Movers

#1 No More Epstein Files?

Traders are increasingly bearish we will see more Epstein files by January 9th.

Rumors are the DOJ needs to review 5.2 million pages of files, making a swift publication doubtful. However, there is still a chance for a phased approach. Whatever happens, we can be sure the Epstein files will be a main topic of discussion for quite some time.

#2 No Gold Cards

Despite launching some time ago, gold cards are not likely to be issued anytime soon.

Traders increasingly believe we will not see any gold cards issued by at least end of Q1. The scheme is unorthodox, legally complex and traders just do see demand for it. Or there is some other thesis ready to be uncovered?

#3 A Regrettable Record

It looks like we will breach 2,050 measles cases this year.

Being honest, it's not even up for debate. Traders are now only betting on whether the CDC updates the tracker on time. And since they moved the schedule ahead before Christmas, many are betting they will do so again.

#4 New Finance

After a roller-coaster year, Bitcoin is set to outperform S&P500 this year.

Shouldn't be a shocker, since BTC is a risk asset that had a great year, even with the recent sell off. It definitely set itself apart from other crypto tokens, which are mostly in the red this year.

Do you think we are entering crypto winter? Or will we see more action next year. Us though, we are focused on prediciton markets!

#5 Last Minute Hit?

Some traders are betting big on SZA releasing a new song this year.

There was a song released with SZA as a feature. However some traders believe it should be enough to resolve the market as some platforms present her as a co-singer (we are not sure how to name it here?).

If anything, looks like January 1st will be a busy day for UMA disputers.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Trump is definitely in the latter category as he promised us some surprises in the next 2 days. So just to get ready, today we examine key wars, the future GDP numbers and wave bye bye to climate change (maybe).

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Strike Confirmed

People were slow to realize, but 4 days after the radio interview, Trump confirmed the US struck a drug facility in Venezuela.

The anti-cartel operation market resolved, but a military engagement one is still open as the operation was supposedly conducted by the CIA. However, we had significant movements near Venezuela in the recent days that can result in further action.

#2 Friendly Meeting

Trump met with Netanyahu in Mar-a-Lago, but they stopped at a firm handshake this time.

They were talking about many things, Phase II of the Gaza ceasefire or the Iranian threat. And Tump reaffirmed his staunch commitment to Israel. While some traders expect action between the 2 countries, the markets on this are mostly flat:

#3 Ukraine In A Tough Spot

After increasing pressure from Russia in the recent days, Ukraine is surely in a tough spot.

Zelensky had an interview with Fox News, in which he expressed his pessimism about achieving peace in Ukraine. He mentioned how Putin doesn't want peace and that, while Ukraine is ready to compromise over territory, it cannot give it for free.

At the same time we are awaiting for more surprises from Trump, as he promised us some before the end of the year.

#4 We Only Go Up

Traders are increasingly bearish about a recession.

After the Q3 numbers came in at 4.3% y/y growth, traders realized that headline numbers will be massaged to show growth. Welcome to the new reality.

#5 No More Climate Change?

While climate change policies will take a step back due to the current geopolitical challenges, there is one more reason to celebrate for climate change deniers.

Turns out 2025 will be the second hottest year on record. Initial expectations were for 2025 to be the third hottest year, but a rather warm start of the winter pushed it ahead to the second place. Realistically though, even the EU doesn't really care anymore.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Today we cover Zelensky meeting, Venezuela escalation, a silver rally and more. And this is just a prelude to the 2026.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Crucial Conversations

Ursula von der Leyen did speak with Trump to the joy of many Yes holders.

2 weeks ago there was a big pump on the market, related to another call, but it turned out that Ursula von der Leyen didn't take part in it. This time, while Zelensky was visiting Trump, she did take part in a call with European leaders.

Ultimately though, we didn't get a ceasefire. But we think we got a vibe change that is worthy of an updated thesis from PROPHET.

#2 Unexpected Admission

It has surfaced that on December 26th, Donald Trump phoned to WABC radio program and admitted that the US struck a facility in Venezuela.

Traders are cautiously accumulating shares on the military engagement market, waiting for another confirmation. The fact that the program was 3 days ago and there is no other proof makes some traders anxious. But considering the amount of publicity the issue is getting, we should have Trump answering such question on the next Q&A.

#3 Metal Frenzy

And we are not talking about music.

Silver and gold are rallying on... well, no one is exactly sure. But silver is an important element for many processes and its supply comes mainly as a byproduct of other mining and processing.

2026 is definitely shaping up to be a wild ride.

#4 Uncertainty

2 days left and traders are not sure if we will get 2,050 measles cases.

The CDC should release new numbers tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, but some doubt that we will either get high numbers or get them at all. But when it comes to further outlook, take a look here.

#5 Elon's Deadline

Elon's deadline is a one that is so ridiculous that it can never be met.

I have never seen Elon meet a deadline and it seems I won't get that privilege anytime soon. Imagine, next deadline being April 20th.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

And we have it all - from Trump meeting Zelensky, through Ukraine and Sudanese wars, to a problematic 60 minutes episode and a battle for the top Christmas song.

Oh and by the way, Trump also bombed Nigeria, but there were no markets to see. This year the US gives quite some gifts...

Top Movers

#1 Trump Admin Insiders On Polymarket

Turns out some people close to Trump must trade on Polymarket as the odds here jumped hours before Axios broke the story.

There is not much to the story, but we can expect that the attempts to sign a peace deal will not stop very soon. And maybe we will have an interesting presser to watch before the end of the year.

#2 Russians March Forward During Christmas

Just a day after we reported on a possible capture of Huliaipole, the odds jumped to 75/25.

It seems that everyone is now just waiting for ISW to update the map that is used as a resolution source. And since they are known to severely lag the developments on the ground, there is a fierce discussion whether this time will be different.

If we don't see it updated in the next report, expect a lot of volatility.

#3 Sudanese Civil War Update

Just a day after this market went live we can present you with a small update.

Traders assess it is unlikely we see RSF capturing Kadugli by the end of January. Despite the UN evacuating and the city being under siege by RSF, traders see a prolonged fight for Kadugli.

#4 El Salvador Stands Strong

After a bit of drama online, traders think it's unlikely we will see the CECOT story on 60 minutes.

A segment of the story was erroneously released online and for a brief moment was accessible to the wider public. It showed migrants transferred from the US that described supposed horrific experiences. Now some are questioning if Bari Weiss, the CBS editor in chief, is shielding Trump from negative press.

#5 Christmas Classics Fight

Two classics are head to head in this week's Spotify top songs.

Traders are joking about looping their favorite in the background as both songs trade around 50c, despite both having a large lead before. Every single stream matters and this time traders are taking it very seriously ;)

Ultimately, these are also way more fun to watch and participate vs insider markets. While informative, inside information makes the markets an unrewarding experience.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Today we will try to struck aa lighter note, but we are forced to start with another Epstein market. But it might be a banger during dinner, who knows? Then before we move to more fun stuff, we cover Russian advancements in Ukraine and new markets on Sudanese civil war - we will have a new event to cover in a forward-looking manner!

For entertainment we try to figure out if a daring challenge can be won. All the while we are listening to the two favorites to win the top song on Christmas Day - what's your go to classic?

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Epstein - A Surprising Blackmail

In a shocking reversal, Yes jumped from 3.4c to 100c per share as traders found that Epstein's lawyers blackmailed some victim.

The email exchange details how Epstein's lawyer tried to prevent one of the victims from testifying in the case. It is not exactly the blackmail we all hoped to see (some politician blackmailed for money or protection), but it's a blackmail. And it is enough to resolve the market.

#2 Russia Is Marching Forward

After Russian maps started to show Russia in control of Huliaipole, traders sharply updated the prices on the market.

The ISW map (resolution source) is still showing Russians some 350 yards away from capturing the key intersection to resolve the market, but these are known to be updated with a lag. Traders must expect that the changes in the next 4 days will reflect the supposed reality on the ground.

But regardless, traders are almost certain that Russians will capture the city in the near future as longer timelines trade above 90c.

#3 New Market On The War In Sudan

Polymarket launched new markets around the Sudanese civil war.

It has been one of the bloodiest conflicts in recent times, displacing millions and being home to atrocities visible from satellite images. Now forecasters and punters will have opportunity to price new developments in the war while we will have a new and accurate source to cover this war through the forward-looking news lenses!

#4 A Daring Challenge

In the spirit of predictifying everything, traders are now scrambling to price how likely Alex Honnold is to free solo Taipei 101.

Alex announced his challenge will be streamed live on Netflix on January 23. It surely shapes up to be a nail-biter - do you think he will manage to complete his challenge?

#5 A Christmas Classic

In a surprising turn of events traders are no longer confident Mariah Carey will have the top song on Christmas.

All I Want For Christmas Is You is a household classic, but little brides told me Last Christmas by Wham! might steal the spotlight this year. Personally I don't like either - do you play them at dinner? Let us know in the comments.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

But outside of domestic politics, today we covered new, outrageous GPD numbers, a new ATH in stocks and a worrisome spike in measles cases.

Oh and we might have spotted new insiders.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Epstein Saga Continues

As the administration is releasing new batches of Epstein files, people will talk about whose name appeared in them.

We've got quite a lot of mentions, and more and more names are being resolved to Yes on the markets. Now we have former prime minister of Great Britain Tony Blair shooting up in the odds as we await more files. We bet the Epstein files will be a major topic in many houses this holiday season.

#2 Let Them Cook

After releasing wildly optimistic CPI numbers, the BLS released Q3 GDP numbers and things are looking, well... interesting.

They claim the y/y growth was 4.3%, the highest in 2 years. But we won't be the first ones to doubt both numbers (especially since one depends on the other). However, the GDP market will resolve before we will get a proper revision (if we even ever get it), thus traders are now confident that overall 2025 growth will be around 2-2.5%.

#3 Are You Tired Of Winning Yet?

Along with a booming economy, it looks like we are getting a booming stock market as well.

Traders are expecting to see new ATH on S&P500 by the end of the year. We had a bunch of misleading headlines, but the market here is not about the closing price, but the overall high it reaches. Last one was back in October and we are less than 10 points from reaching it. To the moon, right?

#4 Don't Worry

Yesterday traders were worried the CDC might not update the numbers to reach 2,000 cases in time. Now they are worried we will breach 2,050.

Yesterday the CDC dropped a pre-holiday update to the measles cases and we were surprised with 2,012 overall cases. Regardless though of how the market will resolve, 2025 was a record year that we all hope won't be repeated.

#5 A Christmas Gift

It looks like Elon is planning a little surprise by the end of the year.

While Musk is known to tease impossible deadlines, recent launch markets were full of insiders. This time as well, despite no real news the market spiked from ca. 20c for Yes to 38c.

Will we have yet another insider market?

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Beyond the above, we touch on Warner Bros. acquisition news and look briefly on the Middle East.

Oh and we reevaluate the "prediction market supercycle" claims - who knows, maybe this is it?

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Moar Files

Turns out the Trump admin is faster than anticipated.

Only yesterday we highlighted these markets, only to show them resolved today. The DOJ published a second drop of the files, pushing a flurry of markets to resolve as several prominent people are named there, Elon Musk, Barack Obama and Alec Baldwin among them.

This drop reportedly features more mentions of Trump.

#2 No Part 2 In Syria

Traders seem to be unsure on how to price the next US strike on Syria.

After unconfirmed reports of new strikes, traders once again are bearish on renewed bombing in the country. After Friday's strikes the situation quieted down a bit, however Pete Hegseth vowed this is not the end of action.

#3 Thailand Is Not Backing Down

Traders are still optimistic about a ceasefire by the end of January, but they tempered their expectations vis a vis Thai posture.

Despite tomorrow's ceasefire negotiations, traders see small chances it will lead to a quick end of hostilities. Thailand remains keen on recognizing new realities on the ground, while Cambodia is not exactly looking to capitulate. And this time, we don't have Trump using coercive diplomacy to force the resolution.

Not that it was effective beyond a short-term photo-op.

#4 Warner Bros. Saga Continues

Traders are once again optimistic about Paramount chances of acquiring Warner Bros. after Larry Ellison personally guaranteed $40.4 billion for the deal.

Additionally Paramount upped the break fee to $5.8 billion. All in an effort to prevent Netflix from gaining near-monopoly on streaming market. Warner Bros. is the owner of HBO MAX service. If Netflix manages to close the deal, it will be the biggest streaming service provider, having close to 50% of global market share.

#5 New Is Here

Did you ever think CME will offer sports betting on its main page? Neither did we, but here we are.

The new Fanduel x CME prediction market platform is live, and we have one more competitor that will spend millions to attract users in 2026 and beyond. In what was a niche space only a year ago, now we have major players from the gaming and finance world making moves to capitalize on the popularity of prediction markets.

We often laugh about the "prediction market supercycle" posts, but if it's not now, then when?

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

In foreign affairs we went over Ukraine war and Thailand-Cambodia conflict as both are now in ceasefire negotiation stage. We also found that Netanyahu might be thinking about bombing Iran again.

Lastly we scrutinize measles market, as rules might prove to be problematic for traders and predictors.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 Epstein Files Are Here

Traders made and lost hundreds of thousands on the initial release of the Epstein files, as both side were partly right.

The Trump administration released new files, but it failed to produce all of them before the deadline. We are expecting more batches to be released, however traders are not optimistic we will see more by Friday.

For now we are left with the initial release, which offers a stark image of some of the elites.

#2 Putin vs Little Pigs

After Putin's recent comments on Ukraine war traders adjusted their odds of a Trump x Putin conversation.

Ukraine peace effort had a busy week, but it was hardly optimistic. The EU agreed on a financing package for Ukraine, Putin called European leaders "little pigs" and talks in Florida yielded no progress at all.

It certainly seems that peace is as elusive as it ever was.

#3 Netanyahu Strikes Back?

After recent comments from Netanyahu traders sharply adjusted Israel x Iran ceasefire being broken odds.

Netanyahu wishes to discuss new strikes on Iran with Trump as Israeli intelligence assesses that Iran is once again building its ballistic missile program. It is widely understood that Israel didn't finish the job in the summer. However, Iran was severely weakened and is not posing a serious threat for the foreseeable future. But Netanyahu seems to like to stir the pot.

#4 Thailand x Cambodia - Cautiously Optimistic

Traders are cautiously optimistic of a Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire after it was announced that a new round of talks will happen on Wednesday.

ASEAN foreign ministers met recently to address the issue of the war between the 2 countries. They are trying to defuse the conflict, however Thailand seems to understand it has the upper hand as it continues to maintain strong posture, probably to get significant concessions from Cambodia.

#5 Measles Market Rules

While no one doubts we will see over 2,000 measles cases, some traders see an issue with market rules here.

The market will resolve based on the number of cases on the CDC website on the end of day on December 31st 2025. However, it is a public holiday season and many doubt that CDC will update the numbers in time for the market to resolve. If anything, it's another cautionary tale around markets and rules.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

A truly diversified coverage today, but the most shocking story is definitely no. 3 as after the recent CPI release, there are serious accusations about numbers being faked! Read below to see why and what it means for prediction markets on economic indicators.

Stay ahead of the game with out forward-looking morning brief!

Top Movers

#1 The Manhunt Is Over

Traders were not looking for a quick arrest of the Brown University shooter, and while they weren't exactly right, they weren't wrong either.

The suspect in the shooting was just found dead, which practically prevents him from being arrested. Authorities also believe that the man, found with a self-inflicted gunshot wound in a storage unit, was responsible for MIT professor shooting.

#2 Europe x Ukraine - Fake Solidarity

While the European nations agreed on a way forward when it comes to funding Ukraine, they are leaving the frozen Russian assets on the table for now.

Traders were right to be skeptical - Europe couldn't reach an agreement to use the frozen Russian assets and deferred the plan, mandating the Commission to continue working on it. In the meantime, they will loan Ukraine $90 billion, backed by EU budget.

#3 Fake It Till You Make It

Traders were expecting to see ca. 3% inflation in December, however they were surprised by blatantly fake November numbers published by the BLS.

And it's not a conspiracy theory - Nick Timiraos himself calls out adjustments that are against any logic. While we suspected the released numbers to be "massaged" for quite some time now, the fakes were never so obvious. If anything, such practices make trading economic indicators pointless.

#4 Is TikTok Saga Finally Over?

After more than 2 months of silence, traders betting Yes on TikTok sale can feel vindicated.

Axios is reporting that the deal was apparently reached. It is supposed to be signed in January, making Oracle, along with other US investors, a 45% owner of the US entity. Ca. 33% will be held by the affiliates of current ByteDance investors and the remaining ca. 20% will be held by ByteDance. We are looking forward to seeing more details, but from the first glance it looks like the deal is mostly a cosmetic adjustment, considering that US investors are still a minority.

#5 DraftKings Saga Continues

TikTok saga might be anding, but the DraftKings one continues.

Traders are bonding this market after a story broke out about DraftKings launching a prediction market platform in 38 states. The news has been scrapped from the internet, but traders remain optimistic that we will see it once again before the end of the year. It certainly looks ready to launch, considering such a note was sent to news outlets.

Wrap up

That’s all for today - did you catch any of the moves? See you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.