Good morning! As the title says, show must go on—the Iran war is heating up again. At 6AM this morning, CENTCOM announced a new wave of strikes, aiming to limit the IRGC’s ability to target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. We dive deeper into the latest developments there in the Strait of Hormuz section.

Next, we take a brief look at the midterms, as well as the chances of a Fed hike in two weeks as Kevin Warsh is settling in as the Fed chair. Then we move across the pond to take a look at the latest developments in UK politics, where Andy Burnham is forming a new cabinet.

Lastly, we move on to business and examine the recent market changes on the Gemini Pro release market and Stripe x PayPal acquisition market.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR seems to be back to the slow upward trend after a short slump. Index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.

House

After a short period of stabilization around 75 points, HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade Strait of Hormuz traffic on Stand

Both sides continue to exchange fire. The US is targeting sites mostly across Southern Iran while Iran is sending missiles all across the Persian Gulf, including on ships. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stopped as vessels would rather stay put than risk getting hit:

Traders now give only 11% chance we will see traffic normalization by the end of August. Oil continues its rally amid the escalation with both Brent and WTI now trading above $80 per barrel:

#2 Fed Hike Moved Ahead

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While the Strait of Hormuz is back to the old status quo, the June inflation numbers were still positively impacted by the MoU. The June CPI print surprised to the downside and resulted in traders sharply updating their hike forecast.

Chances of a July hike fell from 36% down to 11% on the news. But the September hike is still very much on the table—traders give a 42% chance we will see one then.

The July decision will give a lot of insight into the thinking of Kevin Warsh. It will be his second decision and the first after the announcement that the Fed is ditching forward guidance as a policy. We will be watching his speech closely to give you some insights into the future.

#3 Turmoil in the UK

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Across the Atlantic, it seems that Ed Miliband will not be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer.

His chances collapsed as reports started to emerge that Miliband’s agenda might be a problem for the new government. Labour Party is first and foremost trying to repair its image after a highly unpopular Keir Starmer allowed the Reform UK to gain popularity and emerge as a favorite to win the next election.

We shall hear more on UK politics as this week Andy Burnham is expected to be confirmed as the party leader. He can become the prime minister as early as next week.

#4 No New Gemini Pro Anytime Soon

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Leaving politics behind, Google is not expected to release the next Gemini Pro model this month in a surprising turn of events.

On social media we can see that the model can still come out as early as July 17th. However, some reports say that the launch has been delayed until the end of the month, or even further:

Traders seem to trust the delay news more as in the last couple of days the market has collapsed from nearly 70c to just 5c for the July 17th strike.

#5 Stripe Is Looking To Buy PayPal

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Lastly, just yesterday we got the news that Stripe and Advent Capital, a private equity firm, are looking to buy PayPal for $53 billion.

Traders were not expecting that as the Yes price was at just 19c when the news hit. Now, they do see the offer as serious as the price of Yes shares rose to 73c. Sometimes prediction markets also get surprises.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! We are not slowing down. We saw plenty of news on Monday, especially around the Iran war. We cover the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz section, where markets are beginning to price a significantly more severe scenario.

From the Iran war, we move to Europe as we track the markets on Hungary’s president and a seemingly impossible task of forming a new government in Romania. Lastly, we take a brief look at South Carolina, where politicians are already fighting to take over late Lindsey Graham’s Senate seat.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR seems to be back to the slow upward trend after a short slump. Index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.

House

After a short period of stabilization around 75 points, HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

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Yesterday, Donald Trump announced that the US blockade of Iranian ports is reinstated. Additionally, he notified Congress that the war is back on. Iran threatened to completely block the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea in retaliation. The report is unconfirmed at the time of writing:

Whether it’s only the Strait of Hormuz, or the whole region, the main casualty is oil. In the last 12 hours only 5 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz, meaning we are back to war level traffic:

Traders have adjusted their forecast accordingly—the end of August market for traffic normalization trades at only 13c, indicating that traders don’t see an easy way out of the situation.

Oil is reacting as well, with the main benchmarks up around 15% since last week:

#2 More Disruption

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Traders are not willing to play FAFO. Once the rumor on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait being closed dropped, they sharply updated their forecast in regards to the Houthis. Now there’s 41% chance we will see the Houthis target shipping by the end of the month.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia and the Houthis exchanged strikes yesterday, breaking a four-year truce. With the second round of hostilities, Yemen goes into play, something I underscored repeatedly.

Just when everyone was thinking that things could get back to normal, we are hit with an even bigger disruption.

#3 Hungary President Out?

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Turning to Europe, the new parliament under Peter Magyar voted to remove Tamas Sulyok from office.

Traders were expecting that as Magyar has repeatedly said that he intended to remove the president. The only uncertain thing was timing, but even then the Yes price fell below 70c only once.

In Hungary, contrary to the US, a president is mostly a ceremonial function and he is appointed by the parliament, rather than by a general election.

#4 Romania Still Has No Government

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In neighboring Romania the government crisis continues. Ever since the previous government collapsed back in early May, the country’s political parties have struggled to form a new government.

The current president is trying desperately to avoid a snap election. The anti-EU right-wing party AUR, led by the president’s second-round opponent George Simon, is currently leading in the polls. Their victory would complicate further Romanian integration into the EU.

At the same time, George Simon is probably enjoying the show. He was credited as the mastermind behind the collapse and now he offers to help back a new government. However, his proposal comes with strings attached.

Traders are increasingly skeptical any party can gather enough support and chances are we might see a snap election soon.

#5 South Carolina Senate Special Primary

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Lastly, we move to domestic matters. Lindsey Graham’s body is barely cold, but the political machine is heating up. Politicians are already jostling to get his spot in the Special Primary and most likely take the Senate seat:

Trade on Stand

The frontrunner to take his seat with 66% chances, Russell Fry, is the current US representative for South Carolina's 7th congressional district. He’s been rumored to be interested in the position. However, it is still extremely early and a lot can happen before we know the name of Graham’s replacement.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! It was a difficult weekend to say the least. Not only did we see a massive escalation around the Persian Gulf, but we also saw the sudden passing of a long-serving US Senator. We cover both stories in today’s brief.

Additionally, we expand on our Iran war analysis to include new forecasts on a potential US blockade, as well as developments in Lebanon. Outside of the Middle East, we take a quick look at the Ukraine war as we enter a period of summer fighting.

Lastly, we take a brief look at the US midterms to see if the recent events had any impact on the House and Senate prospects.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR seems to be back to the slow upward trend after a short slump. Index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.

House

After a short period of stabilization around 75 points, HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

Subscribe now

Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Trade on Stand

The exchange of fire between the US and Iran has continued over the weekend. Iran escalated to targeting American bases in the region, while the US struck multiple targets across Iran, including energy infrastructure.

After Trump declared the ceasefire effectively over during the NATO summit in Ankara, we’ve seen both sides slowly returning to the pre-April 7th status quo. That being said, the energy markets still hope that we can deescalate in the coming days as oil is still below $80 per barrel:

However, ever since Trump’s declaration, the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt:

As a result, traders now see only 17% chance we will see traffic normalization in the strait by the end of August. It seems that oil prices have some catching up to do.

#2 Back to the Old Status Quo?

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With all the escalations in the Strait of Hormuz, traders now see an increased risk of a renewed US blockade of Iran.

Trump declared the ceasefire effectively over, but America is yet to reinstate all the measures that were present before the MoU. He might do that soon though, as traders elevated the chances of a blockade by the end of the month from 11% to 31%. At one moment we even reached 53% chance.

As the situation develops quickly, this market is the one to watch. Reinstating the blockade means that we are back to fighting for longer.

#3 Israel x Lebanon to Meet Amid Rising Tensions

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We cannot omit the fact that Israel and Lebanon are meeting in Rome amid this escalation. I believe that the Lebanon framework is the main reason Iran went ballistic. Further escalation before the meeting can suggest that its outcome can be extremely unfavorable to Hezbollah.

Iran was looking to protect its proxy through the MoU. However, the clauses in the MoU referred only to the territorial integrity of Lebanon. The framework essentially hires Israel to help the Lebanese government in retaking full control over its territory. While not technically a breach of the MoU, it infuriated Iran.

If you follow developments in the Middle East, the result of this diplomatic meeting could determine the future path of the US x Iran confrontation.

#4 Is There Not Enough Pressure on Oil?

Turning to Eastern Europe, Ukraine continues its deep strike campaign against Russia. As a result, airspace over Moscow was closed. However, Russia says that all of the missiles and drones were intercepted.

What we see on the market is that traders continue to underestimate the intensity of the Ukrainian strike campaign. As the summer offensives are set to ramp up soon, both sides are trying to hurt each other as much as they can. However, it’s Ukraine that apparently sees more success.

In the recent months Ukraine targeted multiple oil refineries and pipelines. It hurt Russia’s main export industry in the times of decreased oil supply globally, significantly suppressing any potential windfall profits. Additionally, Ukraine is getting a license to produce Patriot missiles.

Chances are the Ukraine war is the conflict to watch during summer as a lot can change in the next few months.

#5 It’s Not Mitch McConnell Who Saw His Term Shortened

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Lastly, let’s move to domestic issues. As Mitch McConnell appears to be getting better, it’s another Senator who’s sudden illness caused him to prematurely end his term.

Lindsey Graham died over the weekend. Apparently, the cause of death is cardiac arrest. Graham was a known war hawk and he has just returned from Ukraine per his schedule.

May he finally find peace, something he seemed to struggle with during his life.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

Brought to you by Stand

Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! It’s a quiet morning in the Middle East, sparking theories that further escalation is on the way. We cover the latest developments around the Iran war in our Strait of Hormuz section. We still keep it as a daily special as the traffic through the strait continues to impact our lives across the globe.

Next, we turn to domestic affairs in the US as traders have sharply adjusted their forecast on Mitch McConnell’s chances of finishing his term. Then we move across the pond to see the havoc Marine Le Pen’s decision wrecked on the French political landscape.

Finally, we wrap up with a few lighter topics—we start with the new UFO files to move on the short brief on the latest World Cup game.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

After a couple of days of intense strikes, we have had an unexpected period of calm. Neither side is conducting military operations, but the Strait of Hormuz has effectively closed:

Prediction markets are flat, waiting for any signal to adjust the forecast. So is oil, still not paying enough attention to the unfolding energy crisis:

#2 Mitch McConnell Seems OK

Moving to domestic issues in the US, Mitch McConnell was seen on a stretcher as he was being loaded into an ambulance.

Traders quickly interpreted the news as a signal that he is getting better, meaning that the only reason for him to resign is disappearing. The market dropped off a cliff, from 60c down to 47c. Seems that the old man still has it in himself.

#3 Turbulence in France After the Marine Le Pen Verdict

Moving across the pond, Marine Le Pen has created some chaos in French politics. Just after her campaign announcement, the United Left encountered problems.

The Socialist Party is rumored to have resigned from the primary, undermining the united front. Traders expect other parties to abandon the idea as well as Marine Le Pen’s announcement was widely unexpected.

#4 New UFO Files?

The market on the new UFO files being declassified by Trump has moved up as the War Department released the fourth batch of the files.

Traders were expecting the release, however we can see in the comment section that some No holders were just a bit too sure of themselves. We are now awaiting the first news reports to see if anything worthwhile was released.

#5 First Quarterfinals Are Behind Us

Lastly, something for soccer fans. Prediction markets were quick to catch that France has an advantage over Morocco. As expected, France won 2-0 to advance to the semifinals.

France is now the favorite to win the whole tournament:

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! The exchange of fire between the US and Iran continued overnight as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground almost to a halt. We explore the recent developments in the region in the Strait of Hormuz section. The ongoing energy supply shock is beginning to impact the Fed rate hike decision—the market on the chances of one moved up significantly.

Outside of the Iran war and its consequences, we provide a small update on the midterms, as well as potential new Cabinet members across the pond. Then we move on to tech as we take a first look at Grok 4.5 and its improved capabilities. Lastly, we have a small update for the World Cup fans.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR seems to be back to the slow upward trend after a short slump.

House

HOUSER stabilized around 75 points indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Yesterday’s strikes continued overnight. Both sides hit multiple targets and neither seems ready to back down. US officials say that even bridges in Iran were targeted this time, along with military sites across the country.

The market on the Strait of Hormuz avoided further decay as traders have already priced in the current level of confrontation. In the meantime, oil is starting to catch up with the reality:

As the hostilities continue, traffic through the Strait becomes more and more difficult:

Without any de-escalation soon, we expect to see further increases in oil prices, combined with the chances of traffic normalization going lower.

#2 Fed Hike May Come Sooner Than Expected

The current situation on the energy market, caused by the Iran war, impacts the Fed. Kevin Warsh started his term in difficult conditions. After months of Trump bashing Powell for not lowering the rates, he must now consider raising them.

The recent FOMC minutes release underscored a deep divide between the board members. However, they also showed a real hawkish turn, compared to previous releases. Traders noticed that and moved their forecast ahead. Now, September meeting is when the decision will be made.

#3 No News Can Be News In Itself

Moving across the pond, we still have no news about the final picks for the Great Offices of State in the UK. Andy Burnham is keeping us in the dark, but some traders perceive it as a signal in itself.

As time goes by, chances of a last minute, dark horse candidate get lower. The public has now digested the rumors and got used to the top names being repeated in the news. It might be the last time we see Ed Miliband priced so low.

#4 New Grok Has Made Some Waves

xAI released Grok 4.5 yesterday in an effort to keep up with the industry leaders. This time, however, the company partnered with the newly acquired Cursor to vastly improve its coding capabilities:

Additionally, the model is rumored to be significantly cheaper than Mythos-class models from Anthropic.

Traders are not expecting a shocking performance in Text Arena though. A score around 1,470 would put the new model just behind the top 10, currently dominated by Anthropic.

#5 World Cup Final Halftime Show

Lastly, something for soccer fans—Halftime show for the final is now confirmed.

Some names were expected, while others were more surprising, like Shakira, Justin Bieber or Burna Boy. Culture traders had a bit of fun in the market as we are watching the quarterfinals. Do you have your favorites for today’s game?

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! Donald Trump started the day with a bang claiming that the Iran MoU is dead. This statement follows an overnight exchange of fire where multiple missiles were launched by both America and Iran. We examine the latest Middle East developments in the Strait of Hormuz section.

Outside of the Iran war, we have our usual midterms update and some big news out of France, where Marine Le Pen is unexpectedly getting ready for the 2027 presidential campaign.

Leaving politics behind, we saw big moves on the SpaceX launch market that suggest we might have a new Starship test soon. Staying in tech, we also know now that the GPT-5.6 “insiders” were wrong by just two days. Lastly, we take a closer look at the most recent dispute on Polymarket, involving… Cristiano Ronaldo.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat on the day and remains in the 90.5-91.5 range.

Senate

SENR is also stable, hovering around 99.5 points after breaking a slow upward trend.

House

HOUSER stabilized around 75 points indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Last night was far from pretty. America and Iran exchanged multiple strikes after Iran targeted several vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The US bombed multiple targets in Iran while the US bases were targeted across the region, including strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain. There were also rumors of anti-naval missiles being launched by Iran, but we lack any official confirmation of a hit.

As expected, Trump was asked about the situation first thing in the morning and he candidly said that for him the MoU was dead. He announced he is withdrawing American negotiators and claimed there was no sense in negotiating with “scum”.

The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization markets went down across all strikes on the news. This time, the price of oil played along, spiking on the news:

However, we are still well below the recent highs. The next few days will be crucial—either we get another de-escalation or we are back to the fully blocked Strait of Hormuz.

#2 Marine Le Pen Is Back

Turning to European politics, France saw a shocking turn of events. Marine Le Pen unexpectedly won her appeal and announced she is now the National Rally candidate in the presidential election next year.

She had been found guilty of embezzlement last year and as a result was prohibited from taking office for five years. The appeals court has shortened the prohibition period, allowing her to run. However, she is still required to wear an electronic ankle bracelet, a punishment she intends to fight in the Court of Cassation, the highest French court.

Many traders were shocked as no one expected Marine Le Pen to campaign in an ankle bracelet. They failed to realize that she now has a personal vendetta.

#3 The Next SpaceX Starship Test Confirmed?

Moving outside of politics, the chances of a SpaceX Starship Test 13 spiked after one of the launch trackers uploaded a new schedule with the launch scheduled for July 14th. We still lack the official confirmation from SpaceX, however.

Some uncertainty remains, but traders seem to put a lot of trust in this tracker as the Yes price rose from 25c to 59c.

#4 GPT-5.6 Confirmed

After a failed insider attempt to time the release, we now have the official confirmation—OpenAI got permission to launch GPT-5.6 on July 9th.

With the launch all but assured, this volatile market can finally resolve after giving anxiety to a lot of insider followers. We, on the other hand, can test and see if OpenAI has caught up with Anthropic.

#5 Ronaldo Did Cry

Lastly, overnight we had another wild dispute market. After Portugal lost to Spain in the World Cup, many traders were on the lookout for Ronaldo’s tears. The Portuguese striker is known for getting emotional after big games.

Ronaldo was visibly upset after the game, but the sweat made it difficult to determine whether a tear was shed. As traders debated the available footage, the market swung to extremes; first almost to 0c, later up to 100c after Polymarket clarified that Ronaldo did in fact cry.

Amazing stories happen on Polymarket sometimes. The important thing is to not get caught up in them. We silently hope that Ronaldo watched it play out in real time and at least got a laugh out of it!

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! It’s been a busy 24 hours for both politics and sports enthusiasts. On the one hand we had a massive escalation in the Middle East. Not only the Strait of Hormuz, but also Lebanon is now the hotspot in the Iran war. On the other hand, we witnessed truly historic moments in the World Cup as we had to bid farewell to the absolute soccer legend.

We also cover the latest on the US midterms, including a mysterious condition of retiring Mitch McConnell. Traders exhibit a curious confidence regarding the chances of him stepping down despite lack of information on his prospects.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is down 0.2 points, but still in 90.5-91.5 range, indicating a stable outlook.

Senate

The move in RED was caused by the sudden drop in the SENR index. It fell 0.5 points overnight. However, with no news in sight, we must attribute the slight change to rebalancing.

House

HOUSER stabilized around 75 points indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization markets saw a massive downward revision in the last 24 hours. The Yes price on the end of July market fell from 14c down to only 8c. Now the market is in what we consider a bond territory—usually, when the price of either side goes below 10c, traders start to see the forecasted outcome as practically inevitable.

Kpler reports an average of 36 crossings during the weekend, well below the 60 needed to resolve the markets to Yes.

The pattern we see on the end of July market is also visible on the longer strikes. The biggest revision can be seen on the end of year market, which fell from 81c to 61c in a matter of just three days. Traders have realized that what we see now is the new status quo—the traffic is up vs war levels, but still significantly below the normalization threshold.

The main oil benchmarks seem oblivious to this new reality:

#2 That’s Not All!

The new status quo in the Strait of Hormuz is not set by accident. Iran, or the IRGC to be precise, seems to have a very specific number in mind when it comes to daily crossings.

Each time the traffic spikes, the IRGC is there to strike a vessel or two and keep the flow in check. This is what happened overnight after a decent level of traffic we saw during the weekend. The IRGC reportedly struck two vessels trying to exit the Persian Gulf through the Omani route.

A lot of traders bonding July 8th market must have been surprised to see their position evaporate.

#3 Is It Really Diplomacy?

Elsewhere in the region, Israel and Lebanon announced a new round of diplomatic talks. They will be held on July 14-15th in Rome.

The representatives are expected to discuss the Lebanon framework. Both countries are now working together to limit the influence Hezbollah enjoys in Lebanon, which is bound to provoke a response from Iran. Chances are we might see more disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

#4 Traders See Mitch McConnell Stepping Down

That’s enough of the Middle East for one day. Moving back to the US, traders now expect Mitch McConnell to step down before the end of his term.

The renowned Senator is finally retiring this year, after spending 41 years representing the proud state of Kentucky. However, he’s been hospitalized for three weeks now with no official reason. Traders understand that the shroud of mystery is most likely covering a rather serious condition.

As a result, they see an 84% chance of him stepping down vs only 40% days ago (and 21% before he was hospitalized).

#5 The End of the Glorious Run

Lastly, some news for the fans of the World Cup. After a historic run, the US was eliminated from the tournament by Belgium. Despite being the underdogs, the small European country beat the US 4-1. Many hoped the US could reach at least the quarterfinals, but by all means, getting to the round of 16 is a massive success.

The US fans can join the Portuguese in mourning. After a slow game, Portugal lost to Spain 1-0, after a goal in the 91st minute. Soccer (or should we start calling it football?) fans across the world watched the game with tears in their eyes as this is the last World Cup for the legend, Cristiano Ronaldo.

Now the very tears of the GOAT are a topic of yet another major dispute on Polymarket. Do you think Ronaldo cried? Or was he just sweating? We shall know soon enough:

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! It’s been an eventful weekend. We hope you had a great time, whether you celebrated America’s 250th anniversary or simply enjoyed the World Cup games. For those following the tournament, we’ve included a short World Cup segment at the end of today’s Brief.

We also cover the latest on the US midterms and developments surrounding Iran, where conditions appear to be stabilizing. Beyond international affairs, today we focus on local politics in Israel and the UK. The former is getting ready for an election, while the latter is in the process of forming a new government.

Lastly, the GPT 5.6 release market serves as a reminder that betting on presumed insider information can be a risky game.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED remains stable at 91.09 points.

Senate

SENR has been flat over the weekend, trading just below 100 points indicating an almost complete balance ahead of the midterms

House

HOUSER stabilized around 75 points indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization markets are trending down across the board. The trend is especially visible on the end of July market. After an initial surge in optimism, when the market went up to 42% in the end of July, traders have understood that the MoU is not enough to push the 7-day crossing average above 60 ships. Now the market sits at just 14%.

Even if tankers are prioritized, it is not enough to avoid an energy supply shock, as indicated by the stubbornly high 3-2-1 crack spread:

Main oil benchmarks are lagging behind the unfolding reality (as they have been all throughout this conflict), with WTI just below $69 per barrel:

#2 Netanyahu In Danger

Yashar has just flipped Likud, the party of Benjamin Netanyahu, in the Legislative Election winner market. In the most recent polling both parties were tied, however the rise of the newly formed Yashar gives traders a signal that they are a force to be reckon with.

In response, Netanyahu is expected to delay the election for as long as legally possible. It must happen by October 27th.

Israeli elections tend to be extremely volatile, thus we can expect many more changes in the forecast as traders try to decipher chaotic Israeli politics. For now though, Netanyahu has plenty to worry about:

#3 The Burnham Cabinet Is Still Not There

Wes Streeting is now a slight favorite to be the next Foreign Secretary, in a surprise turn of events. Several names are being floated as favorites to get the Great Offices of the State, but Burnham seems to refuse to commit.

He could become the Prime Minister as soon as July 17th, making some nervous about the short transition period.

Traders, on the other hand, are once again forced to forecast on volatile rumors.

#4 Insiders Miss on the GPT-5.6 Release Market

Last week, we showed you a curious spike on the GPT-5.6 release date market. We suggested that insiders might be on the market as the price for July 7th release reached 81c.

However, it seems that this time the presumed insiders were wrong. The chances of a July 7th released dropped off a cliff overnight as July 9th became the new favorite. It now appears we’re still likely to get the new model this week. It is an important release for OpenAI, which has recently fallen behind its main competitor, Anthropic.

#5 World Cup Drama

After a series of easy wins by favorites, Norway shocked the world and eliminated Brazil in the Round of 16. Now, they will need to best England to advance to the semifinals.

In other shocking news, Florian Balogun, who got a red card in the last US game, is now expected to play against Belgium. Normally, he would be suspended.

Belgium fans are obviously enraged as Balogun is the top US striker. His reinstatement significantly increases American chances against Belgium. The US has been on an incredible run this World Cup, however their chances of winning are still extremely low:

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! Both Americans and Iranians have an important event this weekend. While the former are celebrating the 250th anniversary of their independence, the latter have Ali Khamenei’s funeral.

With celebrations and mourning in progress, we expect little developments in the Middle East during the weekend. Outside of that, today we take a look at a small political drama in Hungary, the UK GDP projections and some forecasts around the AI models performance in July.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED remains stable at 90.94 points.

Senate

SENR has moved up slightly since yesterday. It is now essentially at 100.

House

HOUSER continues to trend down as its value breached 75 points.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Nothing has changed in the Strait of Hormuz. The traffic is up from the previous, extremely low levels, but it’s still well below the pre-war normal of over 100 daily crossings.

Traders still see only 27% chance the traffic will normalize by the end of the month. With Khamenei’s funeral and 4th of July celebrations we can expect both sides to give the ships some slack and allow for higher traffic, but normalization over a 7-day period still looks unlikely.

While real product is aligned with Polymarket pricing, main (paper) oil benchmarks are still refusing to accept the reality on the ground with WTI at $68 per barrel:

#2 The Ghost of Khamenei

It turns out we might never see Mojtaba Khamenei again. The new leader of Iran has not been seen since the start of the war. It is rumored that he has suffered grave injuries and he’s in no state to go to the public.

However, traders were speculating that we might see him on his father’s funeral. The price on the end of August market went as high as 39c. However, Iran announced that Mojtaba Khamenei will not appear at the funeral due to a grave risk to his life from Israeli agents and strikes.

The market nuked on the news and the end of August strike trades now at 25c.

#3 No Change in Hungary?

Initially, the new prime minister planned to get rid of the president as soon as possible. In Hungary, a president is a ceremonial function and he is chosen by the parliament, rather than in a popular election.

Traders almost bonded the market, which at one point traded at 91c. However, the Venice Commission has raised some doubts about the move and has just concluded a visit to Hungary to investigate the issue.

Now, traders see only 51% chance Tamas Sulyok will be out by the end of July.

#4 UK GDP Down in the Drain

The market on the UK GDP in 2026 saw a lot of volatility after the Q1 GDP figure was revised down to 0.5%, from 0.6%.

With the energy supply shortage looming, traders now see 51% chance the UK GDP in 2026 will fall between 0% and 1%. The downward revision destroyed market confidence and served as a sign of things to come.

#5 Mythos Is Back (Almost) at the Top

Anthropic is once again poised to have the best Math AI model by the end of July.

After Mythos and Fable were banned by the US government, the market expected Google Gemini to top the math leaderboard. However, a swift reinstatement of the Anthropic frontier models moved the market and now Anthropic has 83 chance of having the top AI model.

As a fun fact, for now it’s Opus 4.6 in Thinking Mode that tops the leaderboard, with Fable 5 just behind it.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! It is a rather calm week compared to the last couple of weeks. The Strait of Hormuz situation remains stable so we focus on the midterms and the AI race. We had a very tense race in Colorado, while in AI we expect to see a bunch of new models this month.

Outside of that we also take a look at Maria Corina Machado as she had her couple of days in the news cycle after the Venezuela earthquake, where over 50,000 people are still unaccounted for after days of conducting rescue operations.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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The Midterms Tracker

RED

We had a slight bump in RED yesterday. It’s nothing major, but this time the index reflect a change in the SENR index.

Senate

Chances for a Republican control of the Senate after the midterms is rising. The SENR index rose 0.2 points as traders continue to slowly adjust their forecast.

There is now an interesting divergence between the index and the individual market on the midterms. It results from the index also taking into account future Senate races, eg. 2028 races.

House

The HOUSER index is flat on the day. With no midterms in the next few weeks, we expect the indices to stay relatively flat outside of reacting to global macro developments.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed:

Traders lowered their forecast and now see only 27% chance we will see traffic normalization by the end of July. The end of year market is also down and traders now see 82% chance traffic normalization will happen by then. It’s down from 89% only a week ago.

Energy traders seem oblivious to the reality on the ground, though. WTI trades below $70 pre barrel:

#2 Tense Colorado Governor Republican Primary

Colorado Governor Republican Primary is extremely tense. Victor Marx and Barbara Kirkmeyer have only 2,000 votes between them.

However, traders, after a brief moment of doubt, give Marx 98% chance to win, suggesting that the remaining ballots are expected to favor Marx. Looks like the initial forecast was on point.

#3 Machado No Longer Expected to Enter Venezuela

After the initial euphoria, traders no longer expect Maria Corina Machado to enter Venezuela this month.

Initially, she announced she was looking to go and help with the post-quake crisis. However, the US government went publicly agains the idea. Traders recognized it as a sign that the project is effectively dead. That being said, the price looks a bit overvalued.

#4 GPT-5.6 Release Date Confirmed?

In a possible insider move, the market now expects GPT-5.6 to be released on July 7th.

We’ve known for weeks that the model is just around the corner. However, till now we had no credible rumors, outside of the US government asking OpenAI to stagger the release of the model. Will the sudden move in the price be confirmed by reality? We’ll see soon enough

#5 Can Grok Catch Up?

With Grok 4.5 rumored to be in private beta, traders see the Grok 4.4 release by mid July as likely.

However, xAI is not even in the race to challenge Anthropic, which is expected to have models on the top 2 places by the end of the month:

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! We continue to monitor the midterms situation and the Iran war on a regular basis. And in both, there are interesting patterns that have emerged in the last couple of weeks.

On top of that, today we take a closer look at a SCOTUS rumor before we turn towards tech as there’s been a lot of volatility on Waymo and Mythos markets. Lastly, we take a moment to contemplate the career of LeBron James. Arguably the GOAT of basketball seems to be set on continuing to play despite his age.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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The Midterms Tracker

RED

After the Colorado primaries the RED index is stable. However, the underlying indices show us a bit different story. Even though there were no surprises in the Colorado primary. The only contested market that remains is on the Republican Governor Primary:

Senate

SENR has barely moved since yesterday, however there’s a clear trend when we look at a longer-term data.

The index rose from 98.6 points on the 10th of June to 99.51 points today. A small difference in the grand scheme of things, but a one that indicates we might see the index above 100 soon. When that happens, the chances of Republican control of the Senate after the midterms will be even, after staying below 50% for over a month.

House

HOUSER index, however, shows a completely different story. While SENR is slowly rising, HOUSER is on the decline.

As it currently stands, the indices predict a tight Senate race along with a Democratic House. With four months till the midterms, we can expect the focus to go on the Senate races.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed.

Majority of the traffic goes through the Iranian corridor, suggesting that a large part of the crossings are connected to Iranian import-export activity. The markets on traffic normalization continue to go down after a hopeful burst last week. The end of July strikes currently trades at 31c, suggesting that traffic normalization is a rather remote possibility in the short-term. At the same time, oil markets continue to defy reality:

They go not only against the prediction markets signal, but also agains the price action in downstream products as we continue to see a massive divergence in the 3-2-1 crack spread relative to Brent price:

#2 New SCOTUS Judge This Year?

The SCOTUS vacancy market jumped on the rumor that judge Alito might retire this year.

The article was quickly retracted, but traders still think that there was some truth to the rumor, with Yes price now at 46c vs 28c just before the article was published. Ultimately, Alito’s retirement would make little difference for Republicans. Alito was appointed by George Bush in 2006 and is considered as staunchly conservative.

#3 Mythos Is Back

Just as the month was ending, the US government announced that Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 are no longer restricted.

Fable will be accessible to everyone, while the less restricted Mythos model will be made available to around 100 trusted organizations. Traders were definitely onto something when priced moved sharply up on June 26th. However, just before the announcement the Yes price traded at only 6c.

#4 Waymo Mystery Solved

A couple of days ago we reported on volatility on the Waymo market. With some cities being temporarily offline, traders were unsure of the final number, which induced a lot of last minute volatility on the market.

However, as the month ended, the market settled on 8 cities as the final number for now. There is still a dispute on the market, but the price suggests that nothing will change.

#5 Isn’t LeBron Too Old For This

LeBron James announced that he will not play for the Los Angeles Lakers in the upcoming NBA season.

Arguably the greatest player to ever play in the NBA is not retiring either. Despite his upcoming 42nd birthday in December, he is set on playing at least one more season. It’s astonishing how modern approach to health makes it possible for players after 40 to still play competitively in the best basketball league in the world.

Currently, Golden State Warriors seem to be the favorite to sign the legend. However, his previous teams, Miami Heat and hometown Cleveland Cavaliers are also in the run.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! It’s been a rather quiet day. The Strait of Hormuz is still in a state of chaos. However, there are some developments in the US.

Today, outside of a small midterms update, we are covering the new Secretary of Labor and a surprise SOCTUS ruling. Outside of the US, Maria Corina Machado is making waves as some expect her to go to Venezuela soon.

Lastly, we have a small surprise in the World Cup market.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is mostly flat on the day, maintaining its level around 90 points. There was no news that had any potential to move the index and Republicans are still the underdogs as we approach the midterms.

Something might change as today there is a primary in Colorado:

As a reminder, index value at 100 indicates an even split in Republican and Democratic chances of taking control in the future elections.

Senate

SENR is flat on the day, still hovering around 99.5 points. After today’s primary we will have a good understanding of how Senate odds changed after another state has its candidates locked.

House

House is also flat on the day. However, with index value at 75.5 points, there’s little that can happen to change the outcome. Democrats are massive favorites to win the House.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

The situation around the Strait of Hormuz continues to be volatile. After the initial euphoria around the Omani corridor, prices on the market are down to their lows.

Traders now see only 38% chance we will see traffic normalization by the end of July. At the same time main energy benchmarks are trading as if the strait was open:

However, some oil analyst point to some anomalies on the product market that in their opinion could push the WTI and Brent price significantly higher in the short term:

Considering the prediction market pricing, they are surely onto something.

#2 New Secretary of Labor

Trump announced Keith Sonderling as the next Secretary of Labor.

It was hardly a shock to traders that priced him at over 50% chance to get the position. He is the former deputy that has been the acting Secretary of Labor ever since his predecessor resigned.

#3 SCOTUS With A Surprise Ruling

SCOTUS surprised traders by ruling against barring states from counting mail ballots after election day.

It’s a blow to the Republicans, who spent years saying that late ballots are essentially Democrats rigging elections. Come midterms, we are bound to hear this narrative again. However, this time, there’s nothing Republicans can do, outside of outright banning mail-in ballots.

#4 Rumors Around Maria Corina Machado

The market on Maria Corina Machado to enter Venezuela by the end of July has been volatile lately.

Traders have been trying to update their forecast ever since Machado announced that she was looking to enter Venezuela to help in the post-quake crisis. However, there are plenty of problems to resolve: from the high chance she will be arrested once she enters the country to the fact that the Trump admin will do quite a lot to make it impossible in order to avoid further destabilization of the country.

After all, she claims that the current government is not legitimate.

#5 Morocco Surprised Everyone

Morocco was widely expected to be eliminated from the World Cup in the round of 16. However, their great performance in the round of 32, and the fact that they are facing Canada in the round of 16, made traders believe they can go up to the quarterfinals.

This World Cup is one of the most interesting in years (especially after the Qatar edition in 2022). Is your team still in the game? Let us know in the comments.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! It’s only Monday and we already have a dispute brewing. After the Lebanon framework signed by the US, Israel and Lebanon, some traders believe that Lebanon has formally recognized the state of Israel. Do you think that as well? Let us know in the comments.

Outside of the Middle East, today we have a brief update on the midterms. On top of that, we take a look at a new Trump Phone, check a weird behavir on the Waymo market and give a small update on Claude Mythos.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED fell slightly over the weekend. However, it moved less than 1 point, suggesting that it is only an adjustment, rather than a signal of a new trend. Overall, the index has been trading between 90.2 and 91.9 in the last month, signaling stability.

Senate

SENR had a slight volatility, most likely resulting from the Louisiana Primary aftermath. It resolved as expected and the Senate race continues to be extremely close. Index around a 100 suggest an even split between future Republican and Democratic control.

Traders seethe Senate control as a coin-flip!

House

The HOUSER index continued to trend lower. At 75 points, the index suggest that the House is effectively lost to the Democrats and the continued trend down only confirms that.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

The US and Iran continued to exchange fire over the weekend. However, just before the markets open, both sides agreed to stand down and talk, as reported by Axios.

That being said, the continued volatility around the Strait of Hormuz is making a sustained surge of traffic almost impossible. Additionally, the recent America-Israel-Lebanon framework is only going to make matters more difficult. Iran perceives it as a breach of the MoU and will most likely continue to make the crossing difficult.

Contrary to prediction markets, energy markets seem completely oblivious to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI trading below $70 per barrel:

#2 Lebanon-Israel Market In Dispute

Thanks to the Lebanon Framework Agreement, there’s now a dispute on the Lebanon to recognize Israel market.

All thanks to the very first sentence of the first clause, in which both countries affirm each other state’s right to exist in peace and their mutual desire to live in security as neighboring sovereign states. Some traders believe it is enough to resolve the market, treating the agreement as a formal document between the two states.

Other believe that the market requires a specific document formally recognizing the state of Israel, or at least establishment of diplomatic relations. Neither has happened.

In our opinion this is a difficult issue. The framework agreement is surely a big step towards a normalization of relations between Lebanon and Israel. Is it big enough to resolve the market? We hope that Polymarket will qualify that as there are markets with later strike dates that would benefit greatly from such a clarification.

#3 Trump Mobile Is Here

Trump Mobile has finally released the phone. Well, actually it has happend a few weeks ago, but only now traders were sure enough to propose the market.

The phone itself has rather mixed reviews, but it’s here. And so Trump’s grift continues.

#4 Where Is Waymo?

There is some confusion on the market related to the number of cities Waymo will operate in.

All because Waymo has temporarily suspended service in six cities. Traders are now unsure whether these cities should count. However, it seems that after a brief volatility spike, the count is settled at 11 cities just a day before the resolution date.

#5 Claude Mythos Is Still Unavailable

Claude Mythos market has also experienced some volatility. Initially, traders have front-run the announcement that some organizations were approved to get access.

However, it seems that no such organization will get it by the end of the month. The market went from 15c, up to 93c, only to go back down to 25c in a matter of days.

There’s still time left for the market to resolve to Yes, making us think that we might see more volatility before the resolution.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! The news of the day is the NYC rent freeze for over 1 million apartments. Mamdani has kept his campaign promise, while plenty of traders made and lost big money after the market moved from the low 30s to the high 80s.

Outside of the Big Apple, w continue to monitor the Strait of Hormuz situation, as well as global developments across North Korea and Romania. On top of that, OpenAI shocked some investors that were hoping for an imminent IPO.

Lastly, we have a small update on the midterms.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED remains flat as we enter the weekend. Traders are waiting for the next global developments as well as economic data dump to adjust their forecast.

Senate

SENR went up by one point as traders are recalibrating their forecasts ahead of the weekend.

However, there was no specific race that caused the move. It is rather an effect of a slight forecast recalibration in favor of Republicans across every senate race.

House

HOUSER is also flat on the day. Based on the index movement in the last month, Republicans are in a massive disadvantage in the House races. It will be almost impossible to bridge the gap at this point.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz sees an uptick in traffic, however not without some difficulties. The IRGC has struck a vessel off the coast of Oman yesterday in an effort to close the IMO corridor.

IMO, in cooperation with Oman and the US announced an operation to rescue stranded vessels. However, the IRGC insists that any ship crossing the strait must do it through IRGC-approved ways only. Traders still see more optimism about traffic normalization, but there’s still only 41% chance we will see the 7-day moving average of daily transits above 60 vessels.

Energy is still down, hoping to see a swift end of the SOH problems:

#2 North Korea Launches More Missiles

Traders were not expecting any action from North Korea with only 5 days left till the end of the month.

However, Kim Jong-un is testing new missiles and sent one up just a few hours ago. It’s always risky to bond such markets. This time the long-shot seekers got their reward.

#3 No PM In Romania

Nicusor Dan cannot be blamed for lack of trying. He proposed several candidates for prime minister, but none managed to get enough votes in the parliament to for a government.

Traders in doubt that any of the previous frontrunners has a shot at the top job as analysts predict that the impasse might last until fall. Sorin Grindeanu, who only two days ago was a clear favorite, now has only 32% chance to be the next PM, and the price is falling drastically as I write this article.

#4 Rent Freeze In NYC

The controversial rent freeze proposal has passed in New York. One of Mamdani’s campaign promises awaits final implementation by the board as the Yes price on the market surged from 31% to 85%.

Traders have little doubt the implementation will succeed. The only risk is landlords trying to sue the city, but best they can do is delay the measure.

#5 No OpenAI IPO This Year

Chances of an OpenAI IPO this year fell dramatically after the news broke out that the company might wait till 2027 after a volatile SpaceX IPO.

Only 2 weeks ago, the market was trading in the 70s for an IPO by the end of the year. However, a series of delays, as well as the new rumor pushed the Yes price down to 24c. Retail investors surely aren’t happy about this one.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! Today all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz. On the one hand the traffic is picking up. On the other hand, IRGC is issuing statements that threaten the vessels using the Omani corridor, creating a lot of confusion on the markets.

Outside of the Iran war, we have a small update on the midterms. On the markets, we are tracking Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting, Claude Fable availability and the most volatile moves in the World Cup.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is flat since yesterday. After the NYC primary there were barely any moves on the market as we are waiting for the next primaries to move the market.

Next up is the Louisiana Senate primary on the weekend, where traders are not expecting any shockers.

Senate

With RED flat, so is the SENR. Last day did not bring any news when it comes to Senate races.

House

Same can be said about HOUSER, which is also flat on the day. On the 30th of July we have the Colorado House primary. However, traders are not expecting any major moves there. If anything happens, we will update you as HOUSER moves.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Traders are updating their Strait of Hormuz traffic forecast after a surge in traffic has been reported.

However, there is a lot of confusion as IRGC continues to issue warnings to vessels trying to cross the strait through the Omani path announced by IMO.

The next few days will be crucial for the stranded vessels.

#2 Israel Is Not Withdrawing

The market on Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon has been extremely volatile recently.

Even today, we heard the news that Israel has supposedly agreed to withdraw from parts of Southern Lebanon, only to see them deny it minutes later.

Traders now see only 14% chance the withdrawal will happen by the end of September.

#3 Russia x Ukraine Diplomatic Meeting

The market on Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting has spiked recently after Putin announced he’s ready for talks based on the Istanbul Agreement:

Traders have already had the meeting by the end of September as likely with 62% chances of happening. Now the Yes price jumped to 74c, indicating that traders see both sides becoming more agreeable.

#4 Claude Fable Restored Soon?

The market on Claude Fable access being restored is spiking on the rumors that an amended version might become available soon.

Traders are following early signals suggesting that Anthropic is working on restoring Fable access to US customers. However, for now we lack any official confirmation. Are traders front-running the news? Or is this just an unconfirmed rumor and soon the market will reverse course? We will find out soon.

#5 Scotland To Go Home

After losing to Brazil, Scotland is now expected to be eliminated in the group stage.

Initially, trades gave only 25% chance it will happen, but a subpar performance from the team makes it now virtually certain that it will exit the tournament early.

World Cup markets are extremely volatile as plenty of upsets and surprises happen on such an event. Is you team still in the game? Let us know in the comments!

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! Starting today we introduce the Adjacent Midterms Election Tracker. With the launch of prediction market indices from Adjacent we will cover the midterms through the lenses of the specific indices, tailored made to aggregate hundreds of political prediction markets.

Outside of the Iran war, midterms are the most important global event this year. They deserve a proper place in our Morning Brief as we get closer to the election night.

That being said, we will still highlight the biggest moves on prediction markets, regardless of the category to deliver you the most impactful news first thing in the morning.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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The Midterms Tracker

RED

RED is the cornerstone index. It is a forward looking index, taking into account elections across the board - from mayoral, through gubernatorial to Congressional and presidential. That way it delivers a clear, aggregate forecast of Republican expected power.

RED is structured to trade between 50 and 150, with 50 representing a total Democrat dominance, 100 representing a 50/50 balance and 150 representing a total Republican dominance.

Now the index trades at 91.24, indicating Democrats are a slight favorite to control the political landscape in the future. RED also has a sister index, BLUE, that mirrors RED.

Senate

There are also two senate indices: SENR and SEND. They also mirror each other, representing aggregate chances of Republicans/Democrats controlling the Senate after the next election. The mechanism is exactly the same as in RED, with the index ranging from 50 to 150 and 100 representing a 50/50 balance in chances.

As of today, SENR trades at 99, indicating that prediction markets are close to being evenly split between Democratic and Republican control of the Senate ahead of the midterms.

House

HOUSER (and its sister, HOUSED) behave exactly as SENR (and SEND), showing aggregate chances of either party’s control of the House of Representatives.

As of today, the HOUSER index trades at 75.54, indicating that prediction markets expect the Democrats to control the house after the midterms.

From now on, we will comment on the daily moves of these three indices to show you how aggregate moves on prediction markets impact the overall chances of either party’s control of the political landscape in the future.

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

Despite the MoU, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The most recent data drop shows clearly that the traffic through the strait is far from normal.

At this point we believe that even prediction markets are consumed by the Trump narrative giving 46% chance of traffic normalization by the end of July. However, they are still far ahead of energy markets, where WTI is close to trading in the 60s:

#2 Meaningless Resolution

Traders were shocked by the Senate passing the war powers resolution on the Iran war.

Markets had it trading below 2c just before the resolution, indicating that there was really no sign that Congress would vote on limiting Trump’s power. However, Trump is expected to veto the resolution, rendering it meaningless.

In the end, while meaningless from legal perspective, it is an indication that Congress is tired of the Iran war and wants it resolved before the midterms. We’ll see how this event will impact the indices.

#3 The UK Is On A New Path

Andy Burnham is wasting no time. The party rallied behind him and he is now expected to be appointed in the next 3 weeks.

Traders have no doubt he will be the next PM. The real trading on prediction markets will happen on the new cabinet, which will give us more insight into the new path the Labour Party and the UK are taking.

#4 Romania Can’t Decide

Traders are betting on Sorin Grindeanu to be the next PM of Romania after the president urged a minority government to avoid snap election.

George Simon’s plan is working perfectly while the pro-EU president is trying his best to allow for the new government to form. Traders are now considering a snap election as the most likely outcome, with August and December strikes surging above 50%:

#5 Ronaldo Is Still King

Ahead of the World Cup, traders were rather bearish on Ronaldo making it big. Considering his age, it was no shocker.

However, the Portuguese star is delivering above expectations having scored 2 goals already. The market surged as Portugal is looking to advance beyond the group stage:

Who is your favorite to win the World Cup? Comment below!

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! Overnight, the main market moves happened in European politics. Both Britain and Romania are now engulfed in the political chaos as the new PMs are being selected.

Outside of European politics, we also take a look at the Fed under the new leadership, the next Gemini model and, as usual, the situation in Iran.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. Since the signing of the Iran MoU the traffic has seen some uptick, but it’s nowhere close to fulfilling the market rules.

Traders are still bearish on the prospects of the traffic returning, with the only market trading above 50c being the end of year market. However, energy markets are still telling a different story. Oil is down 20% on the month as if the Strait of Hormuz was open:

It looks like the energy markets are in for a rude awakening.

#2 Fed Rate Hike Coming?

As markets continue to climb, traders are slowly pricing in a rate hike.

After the first Kevin Warsh conference traders significantly increased their hike forecast. The new chair refused to provide forward guidance while 9 out of 19 Fed officials projected a rate hike this year.

Combined, it makes for a compelling case. The current consensus is a tentative hike in September, but the next 2 motnhs are bound to give us more insight.

#3 The Race For The UK PM

Starmer’s resignation opened up the leadership race. Considering that it was Andy Burnham’s victory in the by-election that tipped the scales, it is no wonder that he is considered the favorite to be the next PM.

However, the main market moves are on the new cabinet members. Despite no official confirmation, the word on the street is that Wes Streeting, who exited the Starmer Cabinet with a bang, is the frontrunner to be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer:

We are surely in for an intensive few weeks in the British politics.

#4 Romanian Political Drama Continues

Adrian Vestea failed to form a new government and the race for the next Romania PM is on again.

Dan, the Romania president, is now expected to name his third choice for the PM as the parliament has rejected his 2 prior choices. He now has 60 days to form a government or a new election can be called. And since the right-wing is polling strong right now, he will try his best to do it.

Traders bet on Sorin Grindeanu to be the next choice, but he still has only 34% chance to be the next PM. The race is essentially open, while George Simon is probably already getting ready for a snap election.

#5 No New Gemini Pro This Month

Traders are projecting that no new Gemini Pro model will be released by the end of the month after two of the top AI researchers left Google to join OpenAI and Anthropic.

Gemini has long been the top model when it comes to benchmarks, but recently it gave ground to new Claude and ChatGPT releases. Traders seem to be betting on Google postponing the release in order to work on the model and make it better.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! After a trip-induced break we are back to regular programing with our Morning Briefs!

A lot has happened in the last 12 days, but some things stay the same, eg. the Strait of Hormuz. However, outside of the Iran war chaos, we have quite a few big moves on the market to report.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. Even with the MoU in, the traffic failed to pick up.

Traders see only 44% chance it will by the end of July, suggesting that the MoU will fail miserably. This runs against the conventional analysis as oil is trading significantly lower, expecting the strait to gradually open up in the next weeks:

I think we already know who is correct.

#2 Starmer Is Out

After a months-long saga, Keir Starmer has finally resigned from office. Traders have been expecting that since late last year.

Prices on the markets were extremely volatile in the last months as we had several events that suggested Starmer’s end is near. But it was the Makerfield by-election, won by Andy Burnham that finally tipped the scales. Andy is now expected to be the next PM:

#3 A New President Of Colombia

Abelardo de la Espriella won Colombia presidential election, in line with traders’ expectations.

After he unexpectedly won the first round, traders had little doubt he will win the run-off, giving him 90% to win. However, the final results were very close, with the initial count giving him 49.7% of the vote vs 48.7% for Ivan Castro.

That being said, Trump must be happy now since Abelardo is a fellow right-winger that is taking power away from the left-wing.

#4 The Romanian Drama

It’s been almost two weeks since we last reported on the Romania PM market and we are still in the dark.

It’s ben one of the most volatile markets on the platform as reporting is scarce. Traders now give 53% chance Adrian Vestea will be the next PM. Previously, he was not even considered as a viable candidate.

Vestea was nominated by the president, however he seems to lack the majority required to confirm his government. We can expect more Romanian drama this week.

#5 The First World Cup Upset

Uruguay vs Cabo Verde game today ended in a draw, prepping us for the first big upset of the World Cup.

Traders expected Uruguay to easily qualify to the knockout stage, however two draws in the first two games pushed the group stage elimination chances from 14% to 65%.

So far it has been a very interesting World Cup. How is your team doing? Let us know in the comments!

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! After a brief escalation of hostilities, we are back to the stalemate in the Iran war. The Lebanon issue remains central to any future negotiations.

Outside of the Iran war, today we cover the problems in forming the Romanian government, an extremely close Peru election and a possible release of Claude Mythos.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 Iran Peace

Iran has stopped its strikes on Israel, warning that they will resume if Israel continues its campaign in Lebanon.

Peace chances are flat on the news. For a week now we had no rumors of progress. However, the fact that the end of June market is flat indicates that there’s still an expectation of a new peace narrative by the end of the month.

Additionally, traders don’t expect the ceasefire to end:

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. With Lebanon taking the headlines, there’s been less focus on the issue.

However, Polymarket traders are actively adjusting their forecasts; Every market, but the end of year one, continue to drop as traders price in a prolonged stalemate. There, they differ from energy markets, which dropped off after the strikes finished:

At this point we must say that energy markets are being actively manipulated to lessen the economic pain coming from the closure of the strait. However, at some point, the reality will catch up.

#3 Romania Government Crisis Continues

Romania’s president has chosen the new prime minister, Eugen Tomac. However, traders are doubtful he will be able to get enough votes in the palriament.

Eugen Tomac reportedly refused to speak with AUR, raising doubts that he won’t get enough votes. Traders are extremely bearish on his prospects, with Yes price falling from 63c to 33c.

Seems like we will hear more from Romania before the next PM is announced.

#4 Extremely Close Election in Peru

We had one of the closest election ever in Peru. After counting almost 95% of the vote, 2 candidates have only 25,000 votes between them.

However, traders are virtually sure Keiko Fujimori will be the next president of Peru. Taking into account the origin of the remaining votes, they have little doubt most of them will go towards Keiko.

#5 Mythos Is Here

The Claude Mythos market rose sharply on rumors we might get Claude Mythos as soon as today.

It’s a widely anticipated model as it’s been out of the public hands initially due to its supposed power. I imagine we will have plenty of amateur and not so amateur hackers try it out soon. You might want to check your crypto wallet connections just in case.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Good morning! Overnight there were some strikes between Israel and Iran. Both countries are clashing due to Lebanon. Additionally we had some Yemeni strikes on Israel.

Outside of the Iran war, we had a massive earthquake, as well as some rumors on the next generation of Claude from Anthropic.

Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!

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Main Events Of The Day

#1 Iran Peace

Chances for peace dropped slightly amid the recent escalations.

While Iran and Israel are striking each other, prompted by the unresolved situation in Lebanon, Trump is urging both sides to show restraint. It seemed to have worked, as Iran announced a stop to the strikes.

However, the overnight strikes were enough to close the Iranian airspace:

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. The recent escalation caused the short-term strikes to dip as traders understood the exchange of fire as a sign that negotiations are still at an early stage.

This is quite aligned with the view of the energy markets. Oil barley moved on the escalation and the main benchmarks are still well below $100 per barrel:

#3 Escalations In The Middle East

Yemen was also part of the strikes on Israel. Traders now see 24% chance we will see an Israeli retaliation.

Additionally, Yemen announced a closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for Israeli vessels. However, Trump’s efforts to deescalate seem to be working, for now.

#4 Earthquake In Asia

A powerful 7.8 earthquake hit Philippines. At least 15 people have died.

Traders saw a fair chance of another strong earthquake by the end of the month and the forecast delivered. Earthquake markets are extremely efficient as the data behind the forecasts is sound and proved over time.

#5 Claude 5 Is Coming

Claude Mythos is now expected to be called Claude 5, moving the market on the model’s release up.

The long-teased model is supposed to offer vastly superior capabilities. So much so, that its initial release to the public was postponed. We are looking forward to testing the capabilities of the Claude Mythos once it’s live.

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Wrap up

That’s all for today!

We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.