In our hopes, let's see what prediction markets think ahead of the next (final?) round of US x Iran negotiations.

Iran Tracker

#1 Peace

After initial excitement over Friday's posts by Trump, traders updated their short term expectations of a permanent peace to 33%.

However, longer term expectations are still saying a deal is more likely than not. Additionally, ahead of the tense talks, whales and sharp traders are positioned on the Yes side for both short and long term.

With emotions running high though, traders significantly increased their expectations of the end of the ceasefire, currently sitting at 23%:

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

After Friday's bullish announcements by Trump, expectations of traffic normalization in the Strait of Hormuz increased sharply. However, soon after, IRGC announced renewed closure of the strait due to the ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports.

Traders also remain cautious in their forecast of single day transits, with 20+ boats sitting at 74%, unchanged since last week.

Energy prices, on the other hand, indicate the conflict might resolve soon with WTI well below $100 per barrel:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Outside of the small volatility observed on Friday, US invasion chances remained flat over the week, currently sitting at 34%.

Traders remain cautious amid the current escalatory rhetoric as they can be part of the negotiations. Persians are famously fierce negotiators and wild threats are for them just part of the bargaining process. We shall know more soon.

#4 Regional Expansion

Chances of regional expansion of the conflict remain at their lowest level, with only 7% and 5% chances for UAE and Saudi Arabia involvement.

With overall expectations of renewed hostilities being low, the Gulf countries are not looking to re-escalate the conflict without a specific US ask.

Similarly, despite some threats, a closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait remains a remote possibility:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iran regime fall chances are lower than last week as another round of talks approaches.

Even with apparent leadership clash in Iran, the regime is expected to remain strong, with only internal fights possible that wouldn't change the overall structure of the regime.

Wrap up

We are awaiting this week's talks with high expectations. Partly hope and partly prudent analysis, we do have this view as the alternative of renewed fighting and global depression are hard to imagine.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

At the same time more and more equipment is being sent to the region as a pressure tactic, or simply just in case. The situation remains dynamic, but let's see what the markets think.

Iran Tracker

#1 Peace

Chances for peace sustained around 40% by the end of the month, with a ceasefire deadline chances at 26% and a deal by end of May being more likely than not.

Trump's announcement made waves, especially on the April 22 market, but we still lack an official confirmation that would send the markets up to bond territory. That being said, the sharps are mostly on the Yes side. At the same time the ceasefire lasting beyond initial deadline is now almost a certainty:

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Even with general bullishness about a deal, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed by a double blockade and chances are low we will se a proper normalization of traffic by the end of the month.

That being said, chances of at least a partial resumption of traffic this month increased, with 20+ ships passing at 75% chances in any day:

A lot depends on the shape of the deal which is for now unknown. That being said, Polymarket traders think sanctions relief and unfreezing of Iranian assets are likely, while a toll is dubious. When looking at chances, remember that there is a steep discount due to a deal in April having only 42% chances at this point - if you remove the discount all of the below are above 50% likely outside of the fee, which would be at ca. 17%:

Energy prices are also cautiously bullish deal with red across the board as we go into the weekend:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Boots on the ground remain stable at 31%, indicating that long-term expectations of a deal are also stable.

The massive airlift ongoing is perceived as a continuation of operational readiness, rather than a prelude to a certain escalation. It is an important signal as some media push an escalation narrative based on these movements. Thanks to markets we know that it might be an overstatement by them.

#4 Regional Expansion

Regional expansion is flat, aligned with peace and invasion markets.

However, Houthi are threatening preparations for Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closure, sending chances on the market higher. That being said, they are still low:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iran regime fall chances are also flat since yesterday as there is no indication of any cracks in the regime.

Wrap up

We see a lot of hope in the markets, but this time it is sustained by bullish developments on the ground. Still a lot can happen, but there is a path to peace. We should expect meeting confirmation today or during the weekend. Otherwise, the bullishness might quickly change into bearishness on peace.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Additionally, there are voices saying that a prolonged economic slowdown is now inevitable with the strait being closed for so long. We will continue to monitor energy situation in Asia and Europe.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

But some of them had interesting moves.

Iran Tracker

#1 Peace

In a flurry of conflicting news traders see a path towards peace. Since yesterday, peace chances grew to 60% by end of May.

The perception shift was sustained even amid growing military buildup in the region. Considering top holders in this markets, it is a strong signal that peace is on the table and things can move fast. Similar story is visible on the end of ceasefire market, indicating that resumption of hostilities is unlikely:

That being said, the market can react sharply if we don't get any bullish news soon.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. And here traders continue to be bearish on the normalization of traffic.

Even a peace deal would not resume traffic immediately. Vessels wouldn't be so eager to sail into the Persian Gulf and considering a possibility of a toll, there might be a queue to get out.

Single day transit forecast is stable:

Energy prices are also flat since yesterday:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Chances of US invasion remain at 33%, sustained mainly by the continued airlift to the region.

Be it pressure tactic, internal conflict or the ceasefire being just a disguise for renewed action, this is the one thing that keeps the situation ambiguous. And in case of invasion, we now cannot say what would be the target as Kharg Island chances dropped to only 10%:

#4 Regional Expansion

Regional expansion chances continue to dive as there is no indication Gulf countries will be needed in case of resumption.

There are so many US assets in the region at this point that the expectation is that it will be a joint US-Israeli action, rather than a broader effort.

On the other side of the Arabian peninsula, chances of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closure also decreased, reaching previous lows:

If anything, recent price action on the above markets screams end of conflict.

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iran regime fall chances also reached new lows, confirming the above statement.

In case of ground invasion, these should spike up significantly. Them reaching their low now is a strong indication the end is near.

Wrap up

We see a lot of hope in the markets, but this time it is sustained by bullish developments on the ground. Still a lot can happen, but there is a path to peace. Price action since yesterday continues to suggest that.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Let's look at how the markets changed since Monday.

Iran Tracker

#1 Peace

Chances for permanent peace went up significantly, reaching 54% by end of May.

It's the first time since the beginning of the war when traders see a deal as the most likely scenario. Trump is extremely bullish as he continues to tease the next round of talks and an imminent end to the war.

Similarly, chances of the ceasefire ending dumped hard as Trump found a cunning way to pressure Iran without going kinetic, ie. through a blockade:

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Despite the general bullishness on peace, traders are not confident we will see traffic normalization by the end of the month.

Even with a peace deal in place, ships might not be as quick to sail. Those who are in the Persian Gulf would surely scramble to leave, but considering a decent chance of a permanent fee being implemented, we can expect a queue. And with rules of the market being rather strict, there might not be enough time to normalize traffic.

However, traders do see an increase in traffic as highly probable again:

And so do commodities traders with oil prices once again below $100:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Invasion chances normalized around 30% amid all the rumors about another round of talks.

Even as more and more equipment and troops are being sent to the region, traders see it as a pressure tactic. Additionally, the blockade made a Kharg Island invasion less likely as it would achieve similar results:

#4 Regional Expansion

A regional expansion looks extremely unlikely at this point. With all countries, even Gulf ones, chances of joining the conflict below 10%.

Every Iran-related market screams peace at this point. Of course, there is still chaos and volatility, however directional moves are strong and sustained by mostly sharp traders that accumulate large positions for peace.

The same can be said about Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closure:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Regime fall chances are also hitting new lows amid possible peace.

Iran looks eager to secure the wins it got and end the conflict, even if it means concessions around the nuclear issue. After all, it looks like ballistic missiles were enough to deter the ground invasion.

Wrap up

We see a lot of hope in the markets, but this time it is sustained by bullish developments on the ground. Still a lot can happen, but there is a path to peace.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

The situation remains tense as we look at prediction markets to figure out what is the most probable outcome.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The chances for a permanent deal remain low. Traders see that main points of contestation are for now unresolvable.

Additionally, we see that the US airlift of troops and equipment continues unbothered, indicating that we are in a temporary break, rather than at the premise of a permanent deal.

JD Vance is still expected to talk to the Iranian delegation though. Even amid reports that it is missing. In our opinion, some talks should happen as there are factions in both the US and Iran that want peace. However, we believe that the market is slightly too certain about it.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, even though the ceasefire was conditional on it being open. For now traders see a chance for increased traffic, but even a partial normalization with 40+ boats crossing the strait remains elusive at 43%:

As the commodities crisis is dependent on the strait, rather than the war, energy prices remain elevated:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Invasion chances are flat since the ceasefire announcement, but are still elevated at 30%.

Same can be said about a Kharg Island invasion, which simply trades with a discount to general invasion:

#4 Regional Expansion

Outside of the UAE, of which chances remain slightly elevated due to rumors of them attacking Iran already, chances of a regional expansion lowered significantly.

At the same time, chances of a Bab-el-Mandeb Strait closure stabilized around 12%, indicating a rather low chance of that, even if war was to escalate again:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iran regime fall chances stabilized in the low 20s amid possible talks.

In our opinion they are still elevated vs our fair value perception as nothing indicates the foundation is wobbly at this time.

Wrap up

With nothing certain now, markets are volatile responding to any new report. We shall wait for what the weekend brings as historically it was a time of escalation.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

So let's see the markets to understand where we are heading.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Traders remain bullish about end of hostilities today, even amid some strikes recorded on Bahrain.

There were also rumors on USAF tankers heading towards Iran, however till now we have no confirmed reports of Israeli / US strikes on Iran since late last night. The parties are also supposed to meet today or tomorrow in Islamabad, but it remains to be seen whether the meeting even takes place.

For now traders give 85% chance JD Vance will meet with the Iranian delegation by the end of April:

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Traders remain bearish on the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz, despite it being promised by Trump.

For now almost no boats are crossing as Iran is furious about Israel continuing to attack Lebanon. It is clear now that neither Israel nor the Gulf states were consulted during dubious ceasefire talks.

Energy prices remain high as no traffic is resumed and problems continue to pile up in extraction, refining, transport and general supply chains.

#3 Boots On The Ground

Invasion chances remain elevated at 31% as traders see a difficult path towards peace with many regional actors dissatisfied with the current arrangement.

Additionally, all US personnel will remain in the region while the reinforcements are still on the way. Kharg Island invasion chances stabilized near last week's levels as well:

Prediction markets show us that chances for a restart remain high.

#4 Regional Expansion

Regional expansion chances remain elevated as the UAE is reported to have attacked Iran and Iran is reported to have attacked the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia.

On the other hand, the Bab-el-Mandeb strait looks quite safe with. only 13% chance of closure by the end of the month. Seems like for now the Houthi are not looking to reignite the war.

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iranian regime fall chances remain elevated as peace talks are fragile. Iran is threatening exit if the offensive on Lebanon is not stopped.

The next few days will certainly be as volatile as the last 2.

Wrap up

We observe the situation and see more equipment being sent to the region as progress on talks and terms is... negative. there is nothing really agreed on and 2 sides are still far apart.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Despite the official announcement, many inside Israel and the US were surprised and looking at continuing strikes, it looks more like another extension of the deadline rather than a proper cessation of hostilities. Let's see then what the prediction markets think.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The main ceasefire markets resolved to Yes on the announcement, but traders are not exactly sure the military action will end soon.

The market's rules specify the end of military action as a full day of no strikes from the US and Israel on Iran. Since Israel was not consulted on the ceasefire and the current rumored arrangement doesn't solve their strategic goals, there is a fairly high chance the announced ceasefire will not hold.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Despite the ceasefire, Iran still has control of the strait, as specified in the initial agreement and it said it will let only 10-15 boats per day.

However, traders see a path towards a resumed traffic, for now. We are still in the early hours of the ceasefire and the initial bullishness might soon be replaced with a volatile reversal. We are monitoring the markets closely.

Energy prices reacted similarly, even if the real, hard supply of energy is still in a dire situation. We are still at price levels 50%+ higher than at the beginning of the year:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Invasion chances cratered on the news, but are still at 30% by the end of the year.

The marines are still on the way while assets are not being recalled. In reality we are a long way from official, lasting peace and we are at the same level of risk as we were on 13th of March, in the middle of massive strikes.

Kharg Island invasion chances also dropped, but they have since regained half of the move as the proposed ceasefire framework is dubious at best:

#4 Regional Expansion

Bab-el-Mandeb strait closure chances are pretty much at the same level as a week ago as Netanyahu declared Lebanon offensive is not part of the ceasefire agreement.

Iran might not agree with it and the Houthis will definitely not agree with it, thus traders quickly reversed the initial move down.

Chances of the UAE and Saudi Arabia dropped slightly though as traders see a potential deescalation as a signal to at least postpone a regional expansion of the conflict.

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Iran regime fall chances reached a new low, but still remain elevated at 19% by the end of the year.

It is probably the best indication that traders expect a lot of volatility and chaos despite a ceasefire.

Wrap up

We were a bit surprised by the announcement (as were a lot of traders) and we can already see that the ceasefire is fragile, if not purely imaginary with missiles still flying from both sides and Lebanon conflict raging on.

We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

More and more, people on our timeline face the unthinkable and cling to hope that since the effects of a protracted energy supply shock will be extremely massive, there surely must be a way to stop all this madness. But is there?

We welcomed Monday with yet another ceasefire rumor, but let's see if this one has any credibility in it.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances shot up since the rumors of talks, but we are still well below the last week's level.

As we said in the intro, people want to believe, but the reality is that there is little to believe in. It's another Monday with a dovish rumor, that feels more and more like pure market manipulation than an honest effort to end the conflict.

We shall learn more one Trump speaks at 1 PM ET, but our expectations are low.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, but as more and more countries approach Iran to cut a deal, chances of 20+ ships passing the strait in a signle day rose to 82%.

However, 40+ bracket is priced at 46%, showing that any hope of a return to normal is limited. At the same time chances of a US-led escort operation remain low:

All the ceasefire talk managed to lower the oil prices a bit, but we are still above $100 a barrel for any type of oil and it remains to be seen how long will the effort manage to keep the prices down:

#3 Boots On The Ground

It happened. We had US boots on the ground as part of CSAR operation for one of the F-15 crew that crashed over Iran.

Now we must focus on a different market - an actual invasion. With massive airlift over the weekend, combined with plenty of rumors, even ceasefire narrative didn't manage to drop the chances here:

However, it still remains to be seen what is the target of the assumed invasion, as chances of a Kharg Island one are slim:

#4 Regional Expansion

Despite the failed UN vote on the Iran war, chances of UAE involvement rose over the weekend to 24%.

Gulf countries have all the incentive to continue the war at this point and their involvement is certainly on the table. Iranian control of the strait would be a massive strategic loss for them.

At the same time, chances of Bab-el-Mandeb strait closure remain low as the Houthi are not escalating at this point:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Left on purpose with no comment.

Wrap up

That's all for today. We are anxiously awaiting this week's developments while looking at what countries in Asia and Europe do to limit the impact of energy supply shock. More about that in PROPHET's Global Outlook.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Some generals were also fired, sparking all kinds of rumors online, from a coup attempt to a purge to eliminate those unwilling to commit to the war.

So let's look what prediction markets think ahead of the weekend.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances continue to find the new lows as we are awaiting the weekend action.

Traders expect the second round to last longer than 2-3 weeks and / or they don't see it as the final one. With Iranian resilience and current strategic leverage, the chances for a quick end are getting away.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed while traders see coin-flip chances of 20+ ships passing the strait by the end of the month in a single day.

The chances increased slightly as the first French ship was observed crossing the strait unbothered. More countries will try to work with Iran to resume traffic, however any escalation might further endanger the strait traffic.

And with no escort operation in sight, it is only logical oil breached new highs before the weekend:

#3 Boots On The Ground

As we enter the long weekend, chances of US boots on the ground are reapproaching all time highs.

Partly fueled by the sheer number of US troops in the region (over 50,000) and partly by Trump saying that the real destruction has not even begun, traders start to see ground ops as inevitable. However, it is still unclear what will be the target of the operation as Kharg Island invasion remains unlikely:

#4 Regional Expansion

Chances of either Saudi Arabia or UAE entering the conflict increased ahead of the UN Security Council vote and the weekend.

The Gulf-led effort to legalize the action under UN has reportedly failed before the vote has even started. And when it comes to second biggest risk (Bab-el-Mandeb strait), chances rose significantly ahead of the long weekend:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

You know the drill. Resilient. Entrenched.

Wrap up

That's all for today. Do enjoy the Easter long weekend whether you celebrate to holiday or not and hopefully the world economy will survive whatever is coming our way.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Additionally, Trump compared the length of the Iran war with both world wars and the Vietnam and Korean war, implying Iran war might drag on.

Traditional financial markets expected a deescalatory speech and oil went above $100 on the news. Let's see how prediction markets reacted as recently they offer a more nuanced view hen it comes to macro.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances went down across the board as traders internalized that the 2-3 weeks of operations is only a plan.

And as it is usual with plans, they tend to take their own life when executed. Thus we've reached the lowest level yet for the chances of a ceasefire by the end of the month. And we are still unsure what the US is planning.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

Whatever operation is being planned, we can be sure that it will negatively impact the Strait of Hormuz in the short term.

For now the strait remains effectively closed, outside of the ships that pay the Iranian fee and are not affiliated with the US, Israel or other allies that aid the US in the current war.

Traders were also restrained when thinking about any escort operation as the chances of one grew only modestly during the speech. Which cannot be said about energy prices with WTI now being on par with Brent:

#3 Boots On The Ground

With the speech, chances of US boots on the ground rebounded, almost reaching previous highs.

Despite the American public being largely against a ground operation, the US might not have another choice. Be it an escort operation, or something else that gives the US leverage, ground troops will be essential in securing the objective.

#4 Regional Expansion

Chances of any Gulf country joining the war remain low, even as the UAE tries to force the UN to approve the use of force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, the Houthi are once again threatening the closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait as pressure on Iran and Lebanon increases, with chances slightly up since yesterday:

It is now more likely than any ground action against Saudi Arabia, presumably because the kingdom eased its aggressive rhetoric in recent days:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

All the escalatory talk did little to influence Iran regime fall chances.

Resilient. Entrenched.

Wrap up

That's all for today. We are awaiting now the long weekend as expectations are for the beginning of round 2 to start then.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

From our point of view this screams escalation. Both PMs look like they tried to front-run Trump's address, expecting bad news.

With that in mind, let's look at prediction markets.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances remain stable at 36% and 52% for end of April and end of May respectively.

A lot depends on next actions from the US as traders expect either a quick operation, followed by an exit with a claim of victory or a major escalation that would indicate we have months of fighting ahead.

For now, the only good news is that China seems to have gotten involved in the peace process, which is probably why the Yes price remains fairly high despite hawkish messaging from the US.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, but traders are still bullish we will see 20+ ships passing it in a single day by the end of the month.

It is in Iran's interest to resume traffic - for one, it (barely) sustains the global economy while imposing massive costs, but more importantly it affirms its control of the strait. And with each day passing, traders are less and less bullish on the US escort operation. Seems like the current consensus is some other type of operation that would give the US leverage over Iran:

Energy is flat due to the general uncertainty, however take a look at Urals price. It's way above Brent and WTI now, showing that Asian countries are keen on tapping Russian oil, as its composition (API gravity and sourness) is very similar to the Gulf oil:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Chances for the US forces to enter Iran dropped significantly as traders were expecting an imminent announcement.

However, even more troops are moving to the region as we are awaiting Trump's address. It is a classic spike we see on all geopolitical markets. Traders are starved for a definitive information and any lack of momentum in the media immediately tanks the Ys price. That being said, the situation on the ground now is even more indicative of an imminent US action on the ground.

And everything points to it not being Kharg Island:

#4 Regional Expansion

UAE inched above Saudi Arabia in countries that are most likely to join the war, based on recent reporting on its willingness to engage and lack of rumors from Saudi Arabia.

However, both countries moved lower, most likely on lack of coordination from the US. Usually, the US was open when waging war and often it gathered a wide coalition of countries to give its action legitimacy. Trump operates differently, which often leads to alienation, unless others are forced to join.

We also see a general drop in regional escalation markets, however we believe the strong downward move is an overreaction of the market on confusing messaging from the US as ceasefire markets stayed flat:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Lastly, Iran regime fall market moved close to our fair value assessment as recent messages from the US indicate they might resign from their goal of regime change.

Maybe our message of Iranian resilience finally hit the White House. We wil nevertheless continue to monitor the situation on this market.

Wrap up

That's all for today. We are awaiting Trump's announcement as well as the long weekend. We hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

So let's see how the markets are positioned for the coming round 2.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The ceasefire markets reacted as expected - we moved from 30% chance to 34% chance of a ceasefire by the end of April, significantly below last week's reaction.

Both sides remain far apart when it comes to demands and additional 10 days won't change anything. We know that the US is sending more equipment and troops for round 2 and while we know little about Iranian movements, their messaging indicates they are ready as well.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed as Iran now dictates who, and at what price, can pass the strait.

The market on 20+ ships passing in a single day moved significantly up, to 71% chances on the news that Iran will let 20 more ships through. However, it is unlikely they will pass in a single day.

This is confirmed by the escort operation market, where the price of Yes didn't follow the price action above:

Market expectations are laser focused on a ground operation now rather than a risky and complex escort operation. And prices of energy follow, with WTI closing above $100 for the first time since 2022 and the price of Urals inching above Brent as Asian countries try to tap in favorable types of barrels amid shortages:

#3 Boots On The Ground

As all signs point towards some kid of a ground operation, chances of US boots on the ground reached almost 80%, before dropping slightly on Monday TACO, only to end up at 75% hours later.

We now know that the US has over 50,000 troops in the theater, ready to deploy. It's now the direction of the operation that is unclear. For now, traders doubt it will be Kharg Island as the price action on the market is sideways for a week now:

#4 Regional Expansion

Another option for an escalation would be for either the UAE or Saudi Arabia to join in the fight.

Considering that these countries are the most hawkish in the region, it would be logical for them to join, especially so for the UAE, which could gain disputed islands in the process.

However, such an action carries risks. The Houthi have already joined the fight and in case of any escalation they can decide to close the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, as they did post October 7th. 28% feels a bit low for us in such a scenario. But the Houthi have other choices - there is an equal chance they will decide to attack Saudi Arabia on the ground:

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Lastly, while almost every geopolitical market on Iran experiences volatility, the regime fall one is flat on any news lately.

It feels a bit repetitive, but it is a testament to the regime's resilience.

Wrap up

That's all for today. We expect to see the beginning of round 2 around Easter. The markets will be closed for longer, thus the Trump administration will have plenty of opportunity to calm them before the open.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Today we will focus on the main Iran-related markets and how they moved throughout the weekend. As usual, with proper context and analysis of traders' behavior.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

After the weekend, the ceasefire market for April 30 reached a new low while the end of May ceasefire ventured into a not likely territory with Yes price at 46c.

Over the weekend we heard a lot of news about some kind of a ground operation near Iran. Considering that the escalation of military operations works against any ceasefire effort, we saw an understandable move downwards.

Additionally, we've been saying here repeatedly that Iran will be highly distrustful about any negotiations with America alone. This approach is being validated now.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

We've moved to analyzing the end of April market as we are at the end of the month, and at first glance, we should be somewhat optimistic about the opening of the strait.

However, 20 ships is less than 20% of usual daily traffic and majority of that number, if achieved, will go through the Iranian route, affirming its control of the waterway. Thus we believe that if achieved, this development will be hawkish for the war rather than dovish.

Our approach makes even more sense when we position it against chances of a US escort operation by the end of April:

Considering all of the above, it is clear why energy prices are still going up, despite all the efforts to stop it:

#3 Boots On The Ground

US boots on the ground chances hit a new high of 79% by the end of the year on hawkish messages from the US.

By some estimates we now have around 50,000 US troops in the theater, ready to engage at a moments notice. It is still unclear what will be their mission; for now traders expect a Kharg Island invasion, but it's far from a given as it's been trading in the low 30s for a week now:

Additionally, there are little signs a wider ground operation, including some regional militias, will begin as chances for the support of the Kurds remain low:

#4 Regional Expansion

Starting today, we will also track regional expansion of the conflict as there are also chances the US ground operation will involve taking over some UAE/Iran disputed islands.

For now Saudi Arabia is a clear frontrunner in chances of an offensive engagement, however we believe that UAE is undervalued on this market. Their economy and image depend heavily on safety, and now their best chance is Iranian regime fall.

#5 Iran Regime Fall

Speaking of regime fall, Iran seems to hold quite nicely as chances of their fall still hoover around 35% by the end of the year.

There is of course a lot of narrative peddling about how bad it is in Iran, but such an entrenched regime lives on more than hopium. They seem well-prepared for the conflict and there was not a single breakthrough suggesting Iran might fall anytime soon.

Wrap up

We are pretty much at the brink of the ground operation right now. The next phase of the conflict will most likely revolve around the Strait of Hormuz issue and we will track that closely. In the meantime we are also looking at Asia, where more measures are being introduced to soften the blow of the energy shortage.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

We are once again entering the weekend with escalation in mind, so let's take a look a the prediction markets to understand what the weekend can bring us.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

We are entering the weekend with ceasefire chances at 40%, the lowest level since Trump's dovish message on Monday.

It's the second week in the row in which Monday brought a significant rise in ceasefire chances, due to certain narratives being pushed, only to see hawkish developments in the subsequent days that bring the ceasefire chances down.

We are already starting to see that Trump's narratives have lower and lower impact on the markets, pretty soon we shall see the same on prediction markets.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed as chances for 20+ ships to transit the strait in March dropped to the all time low of 11%.

For a few days now there are no news on any escort operation, thus the chance sof one happening remain flat:

The combination of the above sent energy commodities higher, erasing almost all the drop that happened on Monday:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Chances for the US boots on the ground rose slightly, erasing all the effect of ceasefire talk.

Outside of more soldiers being sent to the region, there are rumors in DC that we might see first boots on the ground this weekend. However, chances are the target might not be Kharg Island, this no change in chances there as the market stayed flat on the news:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

Chances of regime change in Iran remain elevated, but flat on this week's news.

Dual track negotiations (kinetic + diplomatic) are ongoing, suggesting no regime change can happen anytime soon.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Mojtaba Khamenei's chances for staying in as the Supreme Leader of Iran dropped slightly below 50%.

Despite ongoing negotiations, Israel is still keen on eliminating senior Iranian leadership. However, we expect the new Ayatollah to be kept in a deep, safe place.

Wrap up

Since yesterday hawkish narratives are back. Ceasefire chances dropped again below 50% and US boots on the ground are more and more likely. All the while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and first Asian economies start to experience massive blowback.

We are entering the weekend with low expectations when it comes to peace. Rumors are, we should rather expect escalation and a big one. We will be watching closely.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you on Monday for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Trump famously loves to escalate over the weekend as the markets are closed and he has 2 days to fix the narrative. Will it happen this time? We'll see, based on what prediction markets tell us.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Since yesterday, ceasefire chances dropped from 51% to 44%, making a resolution to this conflict less likely than not by the end of April.

Part of the move can be explained by continuation of the hawkish narrative in the media. The rest can be explained by no news on the diplomatic track. Ultimately, prices hovering around 50c indicate that there is still a lot of uncertainty, with clarity expected in the next 4 days.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

We are nearing end of March and with the Strait of Hormuz being effectively closed, chances of 20+ ships passing the strait in a single day by the end of the month dropped to 14%.

Traders expected to see some headlines about either increased traffic that is approved by Iran or an escort operation. For now we have neither and the market is adjusting sharply to the reality on the ground:

With no progress on any issue, energy prices start to go back up:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Chances for US forces on the ground continue to rise after a Monday drop as recent hawkish messages include taking over Iranian islands.

Marines and / or 82nd Airborne Division would be necessary for such an action, be it Kharg Island (in plans, but seemingly less likely), or other islands, including UAE / Iran contested land:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

Amid all the uncertainty the regime survival chances improved this week.

A recent small rise can be attributed to Israel eliminating IRGC Naval Commander responsible for the Strait of Hormuz blockade. However, by now most traders realize that the Iranian regime is bigger than 1 person (or even hundreds of persons).

#5 Next Supreme Leader

For the first time since we started covering this market, Mojtaba Khamenei has more chances than not on staying in as the Supreme Leader.

Considering that the diplomatic track is now open, the US and Israel might not be willing to jeopardize any progress by eliminating the core of the current senior leadership. At least till the effort is being pushed, Khamenei junior might feel relatively safe. Relatively, because at least some factions on the US / Israel side might want to press on the regime change goals despite global blowback.

Wrap up

Since yesterday hawkish narratives are back. Ceasefire chances dropped again below 50% and US boots on the ground are more and more likely. All the while the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and first Asian economies start to experience massive blowback.

From Australia where over 500 gas stations run out of diesel, to Philippines where national energy emergency was issued due to quickly depleting oil reserves and no obvious replacement.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

On the other hand, more and more military assets and troops are being deployed to the theater. Here we prefer to trust reality rather than statements from Trump who has been rather untrustworthy when it comes to ceasefire promises.

Traditional markets still tend to trust him though. But that can't be said about prediction markets, where while we have some volatility, the prices speak a rather coherent story.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances continue to rise slightly this week. Traders cannot entirely discount Trump's statements.

However, the move has been rather muted as the price of Yes rose by only 10c. Considering how bullish Trump is on a month-long ceasefire to discuss his 15-point proposal, the end of April market should trade significantly above coin flip odds.

Same should be said about April 15th market, which for now trades at 38c. If anything, it's a testament to Trump's credibility.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed, however Iran has let some ships through (those ones that paid the fee).

That being said, majority of the ships are still stranded as even with a fee, ships associated with the US, Israel and any country that is seen aiding them in any way are banned from transit.

Keir Starmer announced the UK might help the US in the escort operation, but the market didn't really react to the news, understanding complexity of such a situation:

Amid all the situation, paper oil markets dropped significantly, partly due to government interventions into them (officials deny the rumors, but we know better):

#3 Boots On The Ground

Due to ceasefire rumors chances for US boots on the ground dropped by almost 10 percentage points, but since then rose slightly and stay at around 65%.

The ceasefire narrative is countered by more US military deployments to the region. Amid conflicting statements, the market is flat since the initial Trump announcement. We imagine traders are waiting for the weekend to understand what is really going on.

Kharg Island invasion market followed a very similar pattern:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

Iran regime fall is also flat since the news. There were no new developments to influence the market.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Mojtaba Khamenei's chances of staying in a the Supreme Leader of Iran continue to rise, reaching almost 50%.

His position is only strengthened by the negotiations narrative. He is being well-hidden and at least until the negotiations narrative is there, there should be no decapitation strikes directed at him.

Wrap up

Despite the recent developments the markets tell us that chances for the war to end are still slim in the short-term. Both sides are even further apart than before and Trump's message is calibrated for the markets, not resolution of the conflict.

There is no consensus building in the Washington at the moment, as indicated by conflicting moves - on the one hand we have Trump with his ceasefire narrative while on the other we have continually increasing deployments to the Middle East.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

The message initially heavily impacted both traditional and prediction markets. However, shortly after Iran denied any negotiations taking place and the truth started to come out.

Ultimately we learned that some effort to negotiate is being made, but the key to Trump's message was to fold on his previous bluff. Additionally, the proposed 5-day window ends just as traditional markets close and first Marines unit arrives at the theater.

The markets quickly retraced the initial move, but we are left with an entirely new situation. Let's see how the markets settled after a volatile Monday.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The ceasefire market spiked on the Trump announcement, but shortly after it retraced majority of the move, ending up only 4c higher than before.

Traders were quick to realize that the message is mostly hopium directed at traditional markets. The reality is that both sides are even further apart than before the war. Iran delivered on its deterrence threat and enjoys a better negotiating position than before.

At the same time Trump famously hates negotiating from a position of weakness. In our opinion traders were wise to discount the ceasefire talk as a mostly fabricated narrative to manage the markets.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed, even as some ships decided to pay the ransom fee to Iran to traverse the strait.

Ceasefire hopium only pushed the market marginally higher as traders understand that only a meaningful pause in kinetic action will encourage ships to try and cross the strait.

Ultimately chances of a single US escort operation dropped slightly on the news as in case of a ceasefire no escort would be needed and in case of no ceasefire the new reality is that the Strait of Hormuz issue is more difficult than the US is letting us believe:

In the meantime, the price of oil dropped sharply on the ceasefire hopium, but quickly retraced most of the move. Seems like traditional and prediction markets follow each other closely:

#3 Boots On The Ground

The whole ceasefire situation had impact on all Iran-related markets. And the one that took the biggest hit is US boots on the ground.

It may be a bit counter-intuitive as Marines are still on the way with the first unit arriving by the end of the week. But when we see such a lack of consensus in Washington (on the one hand ceasefire, on the other hand additional $200 billion for the war and Marines + 82nd Airborne Division mobilized), we can expect further disagreements even if ceasefire effort fails.

Thus also a slight drop in Yes price on the Kharg Island market:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

Iran regime fall market is an interesting study after the Trump announcement.

The US willingness to open official negotiations indicates that the regime is strong. It's an official confirmation that the US doesn't expect it to implode anytime soon. Thus the Yes price dropped significantly, and contrary to other markets, stayed lower even after bearish developments on ceasefire.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Iran's leader by the end of the year market is closely aligned with regime fall market.

Here as well Mojtaba Khamenei's chances of staying as the Supreme Leader increased and sustained the move. The reason is similar. Ceasefire effort, successful or not, suggests that the current leadership is well-entrenched and considered strong enough to negotiate with.

Wrap up

Despite the recent developments the markets tell us that chances for the war to end are still slim in the short-term. Both sides are even further apart than before and Trump's message is calibrated for the markets, not resolution of the conflict.

There is no consensus building in the Washington at the moment, as indicated by conflicting moves - on the one hand we have Trump with his ceasefire narrative while on the other we have continually increasing deployments to the Middle East.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Some countries I expect will issue COVID-style lockdowns to manage demand as we enter deeper into the conflict. General prospects are bad, to say the least.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

This week has been a real roller-coaster in the US.

Trump asked China to delay his meeting with Xi Jinping because of the ongoing war with Iran.

Comment: there are many theories on why the meeting was actually delayed. My opinion is that Trump does not want to negotiate from a position of perceived weakness - the US needs to open the Strait of Hormuz first.

Joe Kent, the national counterterrorism chief, resigned from his post in protest against the Iran war.

Comment: feels like a hot potato game where no one wants to bear responsibility for the current war in Iran.

Trump met with Sanae Takaichi in Washington. They discussed the current conflict and Trump made a rather inappropriate joke about Pearl Harbor.

Comment: Japan is hit hard by the current crisis. However, they have almost a year’s worth of reserves - they have the leeway to think strategically about this war and potentially help the US. For now though, there is nothing concrete.

Trump also threatened to deploy ICE agents to airports if congressional Democrats don’t agree to fund airport security, which is the part of DHS funding lapse.

Comment: it’s refreshing to see some domestic politics during this crisis. However, Trump’s threat doesn’t seem to make any impression on the Democrats as chances of the DHS situation being resolved soon tanked.

The Americas

While all eyes are turned towards Iran, there is a real crisis brewing on the western hemisphere.

Cuba’s electricity grid collapsed, leaving around 10 million people without power as oil embargo on the island continues. Also violent protests broke out in response to the blackouts.

Comment: another crisis is brewing ion the island that if mismanaged, can lead to Cuba becoming another Haiti. It’s not very likely in my opinion, but with the current focus on Iran, anything is game.

Despite the threat of sanctions, Russia signaled that it is ready to back Cuba, in opposition to Trump. Some tankers were also sent to the island, however none have reached it yet.

Comment: between internet issues in Moscow and Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, I believe Putin has more important matters to attend to in an effort to bolster Russian economy a bit. But it is arguably a decent PR move from him.

In a power consolidation move, Delcy Rodriguez got rid of Vladimir Padrino Lopez, the now ex defense minister regarded as top 3 powerful people in the country after Maduro’s kidnapping.

Comment: it can be power consolidation or a crisis in the making. Wee shall know soon if Lopez still has the power to challenge Delcy. For now her chances of staying are flat on the news.

Asia

With the Strait of Hormuz closure, Asian countries are the most affected and are already scrambling to limit the most severe consequences of shortages.

Sri Lanka announced its public institutions would no longer work on Wednesdays to save energy. Thailand encourages WFH and asks businesses to cut on the AC. Laos has supposedly 5 days of reserves left. And Vietnam cannot ensure het fuel availability beyond the end of March.

Comment: things are getting really dire in SEA and we can expect to see COVID-style lockdowns being implemented soon across the most affected economies.

Middle East & Africa

Iran war.

A lot has happened in the Iran war. Both sides continue the strikes, with some being extremely heavy as the one on southern Israel, near Dimona, that injured at least 160 people.

Qatari LNG facility was severely damaged, cutting 17% of capacity for the next 3-5 years, while South Pars facility in Iran was hit. Trump also threatened further strikes on the energy infrastructure if Iran does not open the strait by tomorrow. Iran threatened to respond in kind across the whole region.

Additional Marines units were deployed to the region, with an ETA around end of April. While they are en route, Trump is teasing Kharg Island invasion while complaining that no ally wants to help the US unlock the Strait of Hormuz.

The US and Israel continue to claim that Iranian capabilities are almost entirely destroyed, but the constant level of launches per day seems to deny that.

The Pentagon is also asking the Congress for additional $200 billion for the war in Iran. In the meantime Scott Bessent eased sanctions on Iranian oil to soften the blow to global energy markets.

Iran also launched missiles at Diego Garcia. They didn’t hit the island, but the action showcased Iran’s ability to target pretty much every European capital.

Comment: I made a whole video with commentary on the last week’s developments, I wouldn’t do the situation any justice, commenting here in a couple of sentences:

Israel is also continuing its invasion of southern Lebanon. Recently it destroyed Qasmiyeh Bridge, on the Litani River in the south of his country, warning that it was a prelude to a ground invasion.

Comment: Israel uses the situation to resolve the Hezbollah issue as well.

Europe

Europe also starts to feel the pressure from the Iran war.

European countries were told to lower its LNG refill targets by the EU to soften the impact of the Iran war.

Comment: Europe is also highly dependent on deliveries from the Gulf countries. It is the second most impacted region after Asia, and we can expect further measures as this conflict goes on.

Slovakia started fuel rationing to conserve oil amid Iran crisis.

Comment: as you see, it begins.

EU leaders failed to convince Viktor Orban to approve a 90 million EUR loan package to Ukraine as Hungary and Slovakia accuse Ukraine of delaying repairs to the Druzhba oil pipeline, which crosses its territory and was damaged in a drone attack in January.

Comment: I’m really curious to see the impact of Iran war on Ukraine war with Russia boosting revenue and Europe entering another energy crisis. The situation looks prime for escalation.

There was an election for the mayor of Paris, the last big election before the presidential election next year. Emmanuel Gregoire has won.

Comment: the Socialist Party candidate has won, he was expected to win since mid-January.

Business, Finance & Economics

Outside of all the force majeure clauses being triggered across LNG, oil and other petroleum-adjacent industries, we didn’t have any major news on business.

For now, everyone if focused on the price of oil, but price of all energy commodities is up a lot since the start of the war:

At this point the energy supply shock is a given and each day of the war brings closer the actual global crisis that could dwarf the 2008 GFC.

Wrap up

And that’s all for today. I will have my Strait of Hormuz thesis ready this week. Otherwise catch me either here or on X. Stay strong and see you soon!

Now the whole war revolves around the strait issue and we are on the sidelines, praying at this point that it can be resolved before the world is hit with irreversible depression.

Outside of praying though, the next best thing you can do is look on prediction markets to understand where we are heading.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

The ceasefire chances held steady over the weekend on confusing messgaing from Trump.

However, his recent ultimatum failed to produce any meaningful moves. Iran threatened to respond in kind vs caving in and opening the strait and now the ball is back in Trump's court. By tomorrow we will know if he followed through on his threat.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. In the meantime the price of 20+ ships moving through the strait in a day moved up slightly as traders felt a bit bullish on the prospect of escort operation happening:

However, for now no such operation exists, pushing oil prices only higher:

#3 Boots On The Ground

Chances for US boots on the ground in Iran continue to rise as additional Marines units are being deployed to the region.

We continue to maintain that the issue of the strait needs to be resolved at almost any cost, thus some kind of operation looks more likely by the day. And recent reporting suggests Trump's eyes are set on the Kharg Island, representing majority of Iran's oil export capabilities:

Even on such a tight deadline the chances are at 38% and rising!

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

Iranian regime survival chances stayed flat over the weekend.

At this point it starts to become clear that only a meaningful breakthrough on either side can significantly impact prices on this market. The fact that this is the case, only showcases Iranian resilience.

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Mojtaba Khamenei continues to enjoy the Supreme Leader position and his chances of staying there by the end of the year are flat for the week.

Khamenei junior remains well hidden and expectations are that he will stay hidden as long as necessary. IRGC controls the country now and conducts the war in the decentralized manner.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile, however it is starting to become clear that we are in for longer. Prediction markets have almost fully priced in a prolonged conflict, now we are waiting for traditional markets to reflect that reality. You should also start to think on how a global energy supply shock affects your job, family and country as we can see the first impact on the war already. Per what we see on the markets, we are entering uncharted waters, full of chaos and uncertainty.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

Not only a sign of conflict escalating, but also a real possibility of US boots on the ground. Neither has been overlooked by prediction markets traders as market reality starts to match on the ground reality.

Iran Tracker

#1 The Ceasefire

Ceasefire chances continue to drop across all strikes. With additional deployments and ever-strong rhetoric on both sides it is hardly a shocker.

Additionally, the market no longer reacts to bullish messaging from both Trump administration and Netanyahu. Despite the latter's claim. that the war will end soon, the prices hardly moved. For us it indicates that the market is no longer hooked on hopium and is much more realistic about the current situation.

#2 The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed as Iranians introduce an option for transit for friendly ships.

The chances to see over 20 ships passing the strait in a single day sustained its drop below 20% as chances of an escort operation this month decreased to a new low of 18%:

An April escort operation is also doubtful with only 45% chances. In the meantime WTI prices continue to defy global markets and reality on the ground, staying between $90 and $100:

#3 Boots On The Ground

The market on US boots on the ground in Iran rose, indicating 68% chance by the end of the year and 56% chance by the end of April!

News on additional deployment had a major influence, but on the back of it there is a realization that this special operation cannot succeed without committing soldiers. Especially if one is aiming to invade Kharg Island for leverage:

#4 Iranian Regime Fall

In the meantime the Iranian regime continues to show resilience and chances of its fall dropped to 38%.

Even amid IRGC spokesman assassination, traders are now fully aware the regime is more than its people, fully institutionalized and in control of the country. The pricing on this market must be in part based on chances of wide military operation on the ground, be it Israelis, Americans or the Kurds:

#5 Next Supreme Leader

Lastly, all these new developments had little impact on Mojtaba Khamenei's chances of staying as the Supreme Leader of Iran.

News about him died out after his initial statement, however we can expect to hear from him from time to time, as fuel for Iranian war propaganda.

Wrap up

Situation remains extremely volatile, however it is starting to become clear that we are in for longer. Prediction markets have almost fully priced in a prolonged conflict, now we are waiting for traditional markets to reflect that reality. You should also start to think on how a global energy supply shock affects your job, family and country as we can see the first impact on the war already. Per what we see on the markets, we are entering uncharted waters, full of chaos and uncertainty.

Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.