I was definitely shocked when I woke up to ceasefire news on Wednesday morning. I really didn’t think Trump has it in himself, but here we are. And since it happened, there is a chance for an actual peace deal. We are 5 days into 2-week ceasefire and plenty can happen, including multiple negotiation rounds and even ceasefire extension.

For now we await market open and the news it will bring. And besides Iran war, there is plenty happening around the world. Only here you will get news put against prediction markets with commentary.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

It’s been an interesting week in the US.

Trump went against NATO following a meeting with Mark Rutte in Washington. Trump accused NATO of not being there for America when it needed them and threatened to leave the alliance again.

Comment: Trump might be seething, but NATO is essential to the US as it props up the military industrial complex through regular orders and allows the US to dictate foreign policy of its members. Even with recent comments traders give only 13% chance Trump leaves NATO.

The Democratic Republic of Congo reached an agreement with the Trump administration to receive migrants deported from America. The first people will arrive this month, including citizens of third countries.

Comment: these measures do little to alleviate the migrant problem in the US. The projected numbers of deportees stayed flat on the news, indicating that there are bigger problems than destination countries when it comes to deportations.

Artemis II mission ended safely with all astronauts returning healthy. NASA is planing further lunar missions, including the construction of a Moon base. Trump is also looking at Mars.

Comment: amid Cold War 2.0, is the new space race coming? Some people surely dream of a scenario from the Apple TV series For All Mankind. But regardless, it’s not coming anytime soon, with best case scenario being first moon landing in 2028.

The Americas

With all eyes on Iran, there are real developments being missed in Cuba.

Miguel Diaz-Canel is not resigning amid pressure from the US. Trump is conducting a naval blockade of the island while Russia is pledging help with energy.

Comment:

Asia

A rather quiet week in Asia.

New measures:

• Some airlines reduced their flights, especially domestic Vietnam operators amid jet fuel shortage.

• Thailand and Malaysia introduced stricter WFH measures in order to conserve fuel.

Comment: despite the ceasefire, the traffic through the strait is still close to 0, worsening the energy supply shock day by day. Last week many nations were hopeful, if we don’t get any progress this week expect more and stricter measures.

Middle East & Africa

It’s been a chaotic week in the Middle East.

We started the week with America attacked Kharg Island again, hitting an airport, a dock and an IRGC base. Israel matched the effort targeting railways and bridges.

We also had the big ultimatum that ended in a last minute 2-week ceasefire. Initially it was conditional on the Strait of Hormuz reopening and included Lebanon, but later on the Strait remained closed and Lebanon war is still raging on.

The ceasefire was fragile at the beginning (still is tbh) as Lebanon issue is important for Iran and Israel is unwilling to cease fire there.

The talks happened on Friday-Saturday in Islamabad, even as many doubted they will come to negotiate. JD Vance led the US team as both sides negotiated for 21 hours before calling it quits with no deal on the table. JD Vance left Islamabad shortly after the end. Reportedly, the nuclear issue, as well as Strait of Hormuz opening, are the two main points that are not aligned.

During the talks, 2 American destroyers passed through the Strait of Hormuz to begin a mine-clearing operation. The ships departed after warnings from Iran.

After the negotiations, which Trump said went well, Trump announced a total blockade of the strait starting today 10AM ET. He also said that most points were agreed on, but Iran failed to commit to no nuclear weapon. At the same time Iran accuses the US of failing to build enough trust.

Comment: this looks like escalation before deescalation. 21 hours of intense talks are rather bullish for peace as it is longer any other negotiation with Iran recently lasted. We should expect some good news before market open, as usual. The question is how good of a news we can get and if it will lead to peace. For now traders are not optimistic looking at chances of permanent peace deal.

Netanyahu said Israel would begin talks with Lebanon with the strikes on Hezbollah continuing until further notice.

Comment: Trump is trying to reign in Israel, for now only mildly successfully. It remains to be seen if he manages to do it to the full extent. However, for now, Iran seems ok with the small offensive continuing.

Europe

It was a historic week in Europe.

Ukraine continued to bomb Russian energy infrastructure, hitting an oil terminal in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and an offshore drilling platforms in the Caspian Sea owned by Lukoil amid rising fears of global energy shortage. There was also a short ceasefire announced on the Orthodox Easter.

Comment: for now nothing indicates that either side is ready to stop. We must see what late spring brings in terms of new offensives.

Starmer was forced to shelve legislation ceding sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. Trump strongly criticized the deal as Diego Garcia is one of the islands.

Comment: Diego Garcia is vital to American power projection. I don’t expect the deal to be ratified any time soon.

Orban lost the election in Hungary, ceding power for the first time since 2010. Tisza, led by ex-Fidesz Peter Magyar is projected to win the supermajority.

Comment: a stunning victory wis massive turnout. Just wait till people learn that Magyar is also right-wing and even tougher on immigration than Orban. His only difference is supposed lack of corruption (and lack of Russian connections), which remains to be seen.

Business, Finance & Economics

The US annual inflation reached 3.3% in March, up from 2.4% in February on rapidly rising energy prices.

Comment: the war has global consequences and the US will not escape them. Sure, it will be better off than most Asian countries, but everyone will be worse off.

Intel announced it would join Musk’s Terafab project, partnering with Tesla, SpaceX and xAI to help Musk manufacture his own chips for robotics and data centers in space.

Comment: Musk seems to be pumping the upcoming SpaceX IPO. Additionally, since Intel is partly government-controlled, it indicates that he is still in Trump’s favors. Important for the upcoming midterms.

Wrap up

That’s all for today. This week will be chaotic and volatile, but I’m cautiously optimistic we might get good news. Otherwise the global economy would really struggle and it is almost impossible to assess the havoc we would need to live through.

Stay strong and see you soon!

There is plenty to comment on since last week. All based on the best source of reliable information in the world, ie. prediction markets, and most precisely Polymarket where there are the most crucial markets on global events.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

In the US, there is always something going on.

Trump said his summit in Beijing with Xi Jinping had been rescheduled to May amid the Iran war. Trump also said he will host Xi in Washington later this year.

Comment: war or not, they need to meet eventually. Especially if the round 2 of the conflict goes against the US and the strait will continue to be controlled by Iran.

Trump directed the DHS to pay airport security staff, declaring the six-week DHS shutdown an “emergency situation”. In the meantime, Republicans in the House rejected an earlier passed bill by the Senate that would have opened the department as it failed to fund immigration enforcement. A stop-gap funding bill was introduced by Mike Johnson, but it is expected to fail in the Senate.

Comment: Polymarket tells us we shouldn’t expect the end of this saga anytime soon. I tend to agree with that assessment as limiting the immigration enforcement is in Democrats and more center-aligned Republicans interest.

We had a third round of “No Kings” protests in the US on Saturday, marching against Trump and his recent policies. More than 8 million people attended over 3,000 events across the country, while Trump’s approval rating is at -18.

Comment: Trump is making no friends by his recent actions which shows not only on his approval rating, but also midterms markets, as seen above, where a democrat sweep is now the most likely scenario.

NASA announced new plans to return the astronauts to the Moon before the ned of Trump’s term in 2028. Jared Isaacman, the new agency head, also said a new $20 billion base would be built on the Moon to allow for more reliance on the private sector. In the meantime 4 astronauts entered final preparations to loop the Moon in the preparatory mission to land on it and create a permanent human base there.

Comment: the haste is purely political, but I’m glad to see renewed progress in the space mission department.

A jury in LA found Meta and YouTube liable in a andmark social media addiction trial. A 20-year-old woman alleged their platforms are designed to be addictive, which harmed her mental health; they were ordered to pay $3m in total damages, while TikTok and Snap settled the case pre-trial.

Comment: it opens the doors for a lot of Americans to sue social media companies. But what is more, it opens a door to heavily regulate social media. Policies like the Australian ban are coming sooner than we think.

A federal judge in America blocked the Trump administration from blacklisting Anthropic. It is part of the Pentagon x Anthropic fight.

Comment: despite all the fight from Anthropic, they will have their models used for war as there is no other way to secure government contracts they so badly need.

The Americas

No news from the Americas this week. And Delcy is still looking strong to lead Venezuela long-term.

Asia

It’s a tough period for Asia.

Taiwan’s opposition leader will visit China in April. The opposition wants to regain power by pitching closer ties with China.

Comment: the strategy of a 1,000 cuts is working for China, especially consideirng the current energy crisis.

Many Asian countries are introducing measures to soften the blow of the acute energy crisis unfolding in the region.

Comment: COVID-style lockdowns will make a comeback.

Middle East & Africa

Iran war is definitely escalating.

I posted a deep dive on the issues:

As well as a commentary video on last week’s developments, so I’ll be brief here:

After the initial ceasefire message that postponed the ultimatum issued last weekend, we’ve heard only hawkish messages. The Us is sending more troops to the region as it mulls a wider ground operation.

Ceasefire efforts, culminated in a 15-point plan for Iran failed. Despite that, Trump extended his deadline for his ultimatum till April 6th.

However, by the end of the week, Houthi joined the fight as Iran is getting ready for the US escalation. The Houthi are also mulling the closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.

Generally the 2 sides threatened each other by floating targeting of energy sites and even American universities across the region.

By the end of the week, USS Tripoli with thousands of Marines arrived in the region, ready to engage Iran.

Comment: we are in for round 2 and it will be a consequential one as the US will try to free the Strait of Hormuz.

In the meantime the Lebanon invasion is going forward. While the culture minister of Lebanon is warning against the invasion that displaced over 1 million civilians, Netanyahu ordered the IDF to expand the existing security zone in the southern Lebanon.

Comment: this is a wider, regional war that won’t end anytime soon.

Europe

Despite all the action in the Middle East, it has also been a busy week in Europe.

Russia launched one of the biggest aerial attacks on Ukraine since the war began, sending 948 drones at targets across the country. The strikes hit a key power line in southern Ukraine which affected Moldova’s electricity supply.

Comment: between the three options Putin faces this summer, escalation seems most likely.

Lukashenko flew to Pyongyang to meet with Kim Jong Un. We have little details on the trip besides the Belarusian leader laying wreath on Mr Putin’s behalf at Kumsusan mausoleum, where North Korea’s former leaders lie.

Comment: Belarus, amid lack of western engagement, is surely moving towards Russia in the west vs east alignment.

The European Parliament approved a trade deal with the US on conditions that America lowers its rate on European goods to 15%, as promised, and Europe having a right to scrap the agreement in case its sovereignty is threatened by the US.

Comment: finally, some red lines from Europe with an actual threat to enforce them.

Giorgia Meloni conceded defeat in a referendum on judicial reform. Early results showed 54% of Italians opposed her proposal while 59% of Italians voted in the referendum.

Comment: no real comment from me as I didn’t track the event. However her defeat means weakening of the right-wing in Italy.

Austria proposed a social media restriction for young people, those under the age of 14.

Comment: as mentioned above, heavy social media regulation is coming; not only in the US, but worldwide.

Business, Finance & Economics

Also an interesting week in business and economics, with a bit of irony.

The OECD warned that global growth would be weakened by the Iran war related energy shock. It has forecasted the growth in 2026 would be 2.9%.

Comment: they are severely underestimating the impact of the energy shock.

Danone agreed to buy Huel, a British meal-replacement drinks company, for $1.2 billion. The drinks are supposedly popular with Ozempic users.

Comment: Huel was a decent replacement last I checked, interesting that such a giant is interested in the niche.

Wrap up

And that’s all for today. Stay strong and catch me here or on X.

Welcome to another week! The world continues to watch the Iran war as the fallout from the Strait of Hormuz closure reverberates across the global economy. The conflict has significantly upended the geopolitical calculus and after an initial shock, countries around the world scramble to position themselves accordingly.

Amid extremely thick fog of war, prediction markets continue to be the best and most reliable source of information about the war. From ceasefire chances to strait closure to on the ground developments, there is no better place to get your daily updates.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Amid Iran war, domestic issues in the US remain mostly outside the main news cycle.

Scott Bessent announced that America will temporarily ease sanctions to allow countries to buy Russian oil and petroleum currently at sea.

Comment: the US is trying to manage the energy shortage while it scrambles to begin escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz. A carefully calibrated narrative around Iran operations and oil availability is aimed at calming the markets in hope escort operations will bring back enough energy supply to contain the worst.

America launched investigations into several of its trading partners (EU, China, Japan and India among others). Official cause is to examine excess capacity and production in manufacturing sectors.

Comment: analysts believe the move is mostly a precursor to implementing section 301 tariffs after SCOTUS shut down IEEPA tariffs.

The Americas

With Cuba caving in, the Americas are once again one of the most interesting regions in the world now when it comes to geopolitics.

Both Cuba and the US said that talks are ongoing between the two historic rivals. After increasing sanctions on the communist island, the Trump embargo on oil pushed Cuba on the brink, forcing the regime to negotiate.

Comment: Cuba is in a difficult situation. However, the communist regime on the island is deeply entrenched and hopes of having Venezuela-style transition might be too optimistic. For now, Trump doesn’t exclude a military intervention on the island, but he claims such an action would only be done once Iran is finished; a promise he might be forced to break.

Mark Carney of Canada announced plans to invest additional $25.7 billion in defense and infrastructure projects across the Arctic amid pressure from Trump and threats from Russia.

Comment: could it be the start to USMCA renegotiation? Maybe, just maybe…

Asia

Taiwan once again sees surge in Chinese jets. Source: Politico

Asia is the one region that is and will be the most affected by the supply shock coming from the Strait of Hormuz.

China’s exports grew by 21.8% during the first two months of 2026 on y/y basis. GDP growth was 6.6% in December. On the other hand, China despite having large oil reserve, is looking to be hit by rising oil prices and may be forced to increase its reliance on Russia. And Trump might delay his China visit due to the Iran war.

Comment: well, this war in Iran is ALSO about China. We surely don’t have all the details, but in the long term the competitive position of China is more hurt by not having access to Gulf oil than American position is hurt by global supply shock.

North Korea fired around 10 missiles into the Sea of Japan as America and South Korea carried out joint military exercises. On Friday SK’s prime minister met with Trump to discuss ways to resume talks with the North which were paused in 2019.

Comment: a rather harmless muscle flexing. However, the region must be watched closely now that we have a potentially prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

Middle East & Africa

Iran war continues with no signs of stopping.

Trump continues to float conflicting statements about the ending of the war, all in order to prop up the markets. At the same time Iran is creating a narrative in which they want to fight on and establish deterrence. Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader pledged to avenge his father and other martyrs.

Australia granted asylum to 5 members of Iran’s women’s football team, which is in the country for the Asian Cup. However, all members later walked back the asylum ask.

American refueling plane crashed in Iraq with all the crew found and declared dead. The cause is supposed to be a mid-air collision during refueling. Additionally, a French soldier was killed in a drone attack in Iraq.

America also hit Kharg Island, however it spared oil infrastructure for now.

Gulf countries continue to be targeted with air traffic far from normal levels. The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed.

Comment: you can read my latest thoughts on the Iran war in the latest Situation Monitor.

You can also listen to my analysis on my YouTube channel in my latest video from yesterday

While the Iran war rages on, Pakistan and Afghanistan are also exchanging blows, most recently Afghanistan launched drones against civilian areas of Pakistan.

Comment: interesting timing for such a confrontation. But I need to read more about the situation.

Europe

It was a quite uneventful week in Europe as all the capitals are thinking about energy supply.

Ursula von der Leyen suggested that Germany had been wrong to shut down its nuclear reactors, naming it a strategic mistake. Additionally, Belgian prime minister is calling for normalization of ties with Russia.

Comment: facing acute energy shortages, Europe is fast to realize its past mistakes, but still a bit slow in securing new supply. The conflict’s impact on Europe and Ukraine war is surely worth a deep dive. Soon.

Polish president vetoed an act of parliament related to accessing SAFE facility for arming.

Comment: there is a lot of misinformation about the whole situation. It’s not as big of a deal as the media try to present it.

Business, Finance & Economics

Some general news from the world of business this week. Most eyes are laser focused on the Iran war.

The International Energy Agency will release a record stock of oil from its emergency reserves to counter oil price volatility. 400 million barrels are to be released into the market, representing 20 days of Gulf supply.

Comment: it’s not nearly enough, but it buys the US some time to secure essential traffic through the strait.

Anthropic sued the Pentagon for labelling it a supply chain risk, a designation that blocks the firm from working with defense contractors. It has never been applied to an American company.

Comment: part of the fight to use AI for war planning. Anthropic is very against it, but at the same time defense contracts are the cash cow you need for a truly big business. we all know how this ends.

Bill Ackman filed to list a new closed-end fund on the NYSE. It’s yet another time the investor tries to build a modern day Berkshire Hathaway.

Comment: coming back to the old topic. There is no organizational premium in hedge funds. It’s all about the smart people taking smart bets, thus it is extremely hard to treat it as a conglomerate.

Wrap up

And that’s al for today. This week I’m planning my Strait of Hormuz deep dive as we all will be watching next moves from the US and Iran.

Stay strong and see you soon!

On top, I’m back to making videos this week with, you guessed it, Iran commentary. And lastly, this week’s paid piece will go over the Strait of Hormuz: the issues, the second and third-order effects and the actual possibility of opening it.

That’s it when it comes to personal updates, now straight to the global outlook.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Iran war has put every other headline out of the top of the news pages, but it doesn’t mean we didn’t have any worthy developments.

Kristi Noem is no longer the head of the Department of Homeland Security. She was replaced by Markwayne Mullin after Trump was supposedly not impressed with her testimony in front of Congress after the Minnesota killings.

Comment: after the shitshow in Minnesota someone needed to be sacrificed and there was no better candidate than the head of the DHS. Now we are wondering who will be next, with Pam Bondi, Pete Hegseth and Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor) in the most danger:

We had early primaries in Texas, where we had at least a few surprises. In Senate, GOP’s Cornyn and Paxton are headed to a May runoff while Democrats nominated Talarico over Crockett. In House races, Gonzales advanced to a runoff amid an affair scandal and Crenshaw lost to a more conservative challenger.

Comment: we are seeing early surprises in the primaries, however it looks like wrong foreign policy decision and focus on international affairs over domestic problems will have bigger impact on the overall race.

DOJ released another batch of Epstein files in which Donald Trump is accused of sexually abusing a minor.

Comment: I’m hearing that the Trump accuser is not exactly trustworthy, but the situation is surely far from good for Trump.

The Americas

In The America, my eyes are turned towards Venezuela as any issues there would send Trump and GOP on the downward spiral.

Maria Corina Machado pledged to return to Venezuela, however Delcy Rodriguez is far from welcoming. Additionally Machado seems to have no support from the White House or the Congress.

Comment: I believe that the Venezuela “opposition” is dead. They had years to prepare for the moment and when it finally came, Machado was out of country and her whole movement failed to produce even a single event, let alone victory. No strength, no influence:

Mark Carney called for Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor to be removed from Britain’s line of succession for his actions revealed as part of Epstein files disclosure. King Charles removed his titles, but Andrew is still eight in line to the throne and Britain’s monarch are also Canada’s head of state.

Comment: Andrew is going down as the sacrificial lamb and Carney is kicking him on top.

American special forces are supporting troops in Ecuador in a military operation against drug trafficking sites. They are there in an advisory role, not participating in raids.

Comment: the western hemisphere is still a priority.

Asia

Asia is the primary region affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This week was not that eventful, but the next few weeks ahead will surely prove different.

China set a GDP growth target for 2026 at 4.5-5% at the National People’s Congress.

Comment: It’s the first time in decades the growth target is set below 5%. Despite the numbers being fake anyway, China is feeling the heat from the global power rivalry.

Dozens of people were killed in Pakistan amid protests against the US attack on Iran. Notably, people were tryin to storm the American consulate in Karachi, the biggest city in the country and de facto economic center. American marines stationed there opened fire, although it is not clear how many of the casualties can be attributed to them.

Comment: Pakistan has large Shia minorities that are aligned with the Iranian regime. It is a divided country, considering it officially has a defense treaty with Saudi Arabia, a Sunni monarchy.

Speaking of Pakistan, they have an ongoing conflict with Afghanistan. Pakistani and Afghan forces clashed on the border and Pakistan targeted Taliban infrastructure.

Comment: it started just before the Iran war and there is non-zero chance it can spill over and combine. Just another volatile part in the highly volatile region. And Pakistan has nukes + a treaty with the Saudis…

Balendra Shah is looking to win the Nepal election after preliminary results showed his Rastriya Swatantra Party victorious. Ex-rapper is set to be the first PM of Nepal after Gen Z protests toppled the previous government.

Comment: it will be interesting to see the direction Nepal takes after the revolution.

Middle East & Africa

Iran… there is a lot to unpack here.

I don’t want to spend too much time here as I also write daily briefs on the war now (look at Adjacent News if you want to get them to your inbox), but some things need to be said.

First of all, the regime still stands. Second of all, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Third, the new Supreme Leader of Iran is Khamenei’s son, even more radical now and endorsed by IRGC. Fourth, Gulf countries are hurting a lot; from reputation to oil infrastructure to desalination plants. Fifth, Israel is getting hit as well, showing that after a week of intensive air campaign, they still have plenty of missiles and launchers left at play.

On the other hand, Iran is getting hit hard. Tehran is literally burning. Oil and water infrastructure was also hit. Whole senior leadership was killed. Artesh navy was obliterated. Forced into decentralized Mosaic Doctrine, their attacks are disorganized, diminishing their effectiveness.

Iran is definitely losing the war. But ironically, they might be winning the negotiations. They are imposing high costs and the fight is, in a sense, more even than expected.

Volatile weeks are ahead of us, and if you want to read more about the Iran war and its prospects, here’s my latest piece on it.

There is also high chance Eritrea and Ethiopia will go at it since their whole neighborhood is engaged in fighting.

Comment: Ethiopia is landlocked and potentially stronger and can use the fact that everyone is busy to carve out something for itself.

Europe

We heard very surprising news from Europe this week.

Talks on Ukraine peace have been suspended amid the Iran war situation.

Comment: Putin is not interested in ending the war at the moment as global conditions currently favor him and his energy exports.

Macron made a dramatic speech in which he announced the expansion of France’s nuclear arsenal and proposed to offer some European countries a nuclear umbrella. He also announced a new nuclear-armed submarine by 2036.

Comment: France is looking to take the military leadership of Europe. While Britain is trapped outside of Europe and the US and Germany is economically weak with an even weaker military, it is France that is looking to fill the vacuum the US is leaving.

British police arrested 3 men on suspicion of spying for China. One of them is the spouse of Joani Reid, a Labour MP.

Comment: imagine how worse it will get with the new embassy.

Iceland announced its referendum on resuming discussions to join the European Union will be held on August 29th. Polling is split; the country began negotiations in 2009, but suspended them in 2015 in a worry for its fishing industry.

Comment: Iceland can be an important country thanks to its access to the Arctic Ocean, it may benefit from an EU membership in these uncertain times.

Business, Finance & Economics

And some more bad news from the world of finance to wrap things up.

Unemployment in the US rose to 4.4% in February as employers cut 92,000 jobs.

Comment: the economy is hurting and now we are looking to add a supply shock to the mix. If you ever had advanced macroeconomics then you know how bad it is. And if you didn’t then let me tell you that it could get really ugly and there will be no economic tool or policy to prevent it or fix it quickly. I wish good luck to Kevin Warsh.

BlackRock capped withdrawals from its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund, a private credit fund.Shareholders requested to withdraw $1.2 billion (9.3%), but the firm capped it at $620 million (5%).

Comment: from my exposure to private credit funds in my previous life these are some really risky deals; there is a reason someone turns to private credit. The reason is no bank is willing to finance whatever they want to do.

Wrap up

That’s all for today. Stay strong and see you soon!

I’ll be watching it to catch some clues about Trump’s thinking and depending on what will be said, I might do a commentary video on it! Stay tuned, and in the meantime see the world for yourself.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

It was a defining week for Trump presidency and some of the developments continue this week.

SCOTUS ruled that IEEPA tariffs (the blanket ones) are in fact unconstitutional, cancelling them and opening path towards refunds. However, shortly after the decision, Trump proceeded to set new blanket tariffs of 10% under Section 122, only to increase them to 15% less than 24 hours later.

Comment: the tariff ruling was expected and it is clear that the Trump administration was ready with a solution. What is a bit shocking is that SCOTUS left the door wide open for refunds and rumors are that the first lawsuits from companies are in. Trump is in a bit of a pickle now, since voters will be extremely angry they paid the tariffs and now the companies are getting refunds.

Secret Service shot dead Austin Tucker Martin, a 21 years old male, carrying a shotgun and fuel as he breached Mar-a-Lago. Trump was not there at the time.

Comment: people are struggling, the political division is at all time highs so sadly we can expect such events to happen.

Britain’s energy secretary Ed Miliband and Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, signed a clean energy partnership promising to share technology and attract joint investment. Octopus Energy, a British green power group, pledged to invest $1 billion in Californian renewables.

Comment: seems like Gavin Newsom is testing the waters for his presidential campaign.

Trump directed the US government should release most files on aliens and UAPs. This comes after Obama claimed that aliens are real during an interview, however he later clarified that this is only his personal opinion, rather than something he saw as the US president.

Comment: while many people are hopeful, I don’t believe we will see an definitive proof of non human intelligence in these files.

The Americas

Wherever Trump turns his attention, the region explodes with developments shortly after. Americas are no different - once scarcely mentioned in the Global Outlook, now they are a premiere feature of this weekly article.

The US carried out 2 strikes on alleged drug trafficking boats in the eastern Pacific + one more in the Caribbean, killing 11 people.

Comment: I don’t see these strikes as either a solution or something that has outsized impact on drugs coming to the US. I think they are done mostly for narrative purposes at this point + to deter anyone who would think of resuming shipments through this route.

Mexican army killed El Mencho, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. It is know as the most violent cartel in Mexico. The death resulted from a shooting between the army and the cartel, during an operation that aimed to capture the leader.

Comment: chaos ensued as the most violent gang is looking for revenge. I see this as a major escalation, I do believe the US had something to do with the operation, and now the market in US involvement is extremely volatile:

Greenland declined Trump’s offer to send an American hospital boat with medical supplies after Trump made a post on Truth Social claiming that Greenlanders are not being taken care of.

Comment: I would classify it as rambling.

Another Conservative MP defected to the Liberals in Canada, making it likely that we will see a Liberal majority in the parliament.

Comment: we have 3 upcoming elections that if won by Liberals, will allow them to have the majority without snap elections. Exciting!

Asia

After shocking elections results, it was a fairly quiet week in Asia.

India signed a deal with Brazil on rare earths, hoping to lessen the reliance on China. Brazil has a quarter of known rare earths reserves globally.

Comment: it’s a blow to China surely, especially coming from Brazil, which very recently was leaning towards China vs the US. Trump effect?

Yoon Suk Yeol, the ex-president of South Korea who led the failed insurrection was sentenced to life in prison.

Comment: prosecutors wanted the death penalty, but if you ask me, I’m not sure what is worse.

Middle East & Africa

I don’t need to tell you that it was a tense week in the Middle East.

The US and Iran held the second round of talks in Geneva, during which they agreed on the scope of the agreement. Today, Iran is submitting its draft of the agreement, but there is no news on the proposal from the US side. Regardless, both countries will meet again on Thursday in Geneva.

Comment: I’ve written extensively on the topic, to the point that I’m not planning any more updates at this point. In the last one I laid out my full thesis, based on the full month of researching the current situation.

Armed forces loyal to Sudan’s government said they had repelled an attack by the RSF on El Tina, a town on the border of Chad, which the militia had earlier claimed to have captured.

Comment: I don’t have much to say about this conflict other than that it is a proxy conflict and the US should step in here and resolve the dispute between KSA and UAE.

Europe

I wouldn’t say it was a big week in Europe, but something has happened for sure.

The same day US-Iran talks happened in Geneva, US-Russia-Ukraine talks also took place, also in Geneva. And reports from them are rather bleak - Zelensky was even quoted saying that the talks have collapsed and the country needs to be ready for another 3 years of war. But ultimately, more talks are in plans.

Comment: Trump will really push this topic and we can expect a culmination point somewhere around June, after which we will either get a ceasefire or a total exit bby the US.

Speaking of Ukraine, it accused Hungary and Slovakia of blackmail. The two countries threatened to cut off supplies of electricity in response to Ukraine’s failure to resume transporting Russian oil to them.

Comment: just political games… especially on the eve of war anniversary and incoming Hungary election.

The European Commission is looking to delay the ratification of the trade agreement with the US, due to Trump’s new 15% tariffs.

Comment: every occasion is good to discredit Trump in the midterms year, Europe will do what it can to stop Trump from fully implementing his agenda.

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, the ex-prince, was arrested by police in Britain on suspicion of misconduct in public office. It appears that he shared sensitive details with Epstein when he was a British trade envoy.

Comment: the sacrificial lamb.

Business, Finance & Economics

Lastly, some interesting news from the entertainment industry, coupled with an update on mining.

BHP, the world’s biggest mining company by market cap, reported stronger than expected half-year results driven by increased demand for copper.

Comment: copper is crucial for energy infra that needs to be upgraded and expanded in pretty much every major developed country.

Warner Bros. is restarting talks with Paramount after the company has sweetened the offer several times. Now Netflix needs to up their bid.

Comment: and now the real (business) war starts. This is a fight for entertainment industry dominance and both companies have plenty of cash to spare. Things should get really interesting here.

Wrap up

And that’s all for today. I’m still mulling the next deep dive topic, but I’m looking to play some SOTU markets tomorrow so you can expect a small update from me in that regard.

In the meantime stay strong and see you soon!

Welcome to the new week! Today the focus is on Iran and Ukraine as politicians gathered for Munich Security Conference to talk big words. Supposedly they were talking Greenland behind closed doors, but the real talks are only tomorrow in Geneva - both Ukraine and Iran will be discussed.

We have plenty to comment on, get up to speed with the world.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

It’s been a busy week in the US with many events having major repercussions for the future. It’s also been a very strange week on Polymarket.

The US government entered into a partial government shutdown over DHS funding negotiations. It is looking to be at least 10 days long as Senate take a break.

Comment: it is no shocker that Republicans and Democrats fight over the DHS funding, as this is the department responsible for curbing migration and deporting illegal aliens. We can expect these negotiations to be hard as Trump is trying to figure out his strategy for the midterms. What is also shocking here is this Polymarket resolution, that happened only because the website use as the sole information source for a resolution was not updated. Markets probably should have secondary sources to avoid such situations.

Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, announced the end of the immigration agents operation in Minnesota after more than 2 months. Homan said the operation was a great success.

Comment: it was anything but a success. Public opinion has turned even more against Trump, 2 Americans are dead and migrants are still largely in the US. Amid the DHS funding negotiations, Trump needs to find a better and more compelling way to deal with illegal immigrants. Can he do it though? I’m not sure.

Howard Lutnick admitted that he visited Epstein’s island with his family in 2012 in a congressional hearing.

Comment: as it is more and more obvious that Epstein was a fixer, more and more high-profile people are implicated. Lutnick shouldn’t really be pressured to leave the administration, unless a more direct evidence of his wrongdoing emerges.

FAA closed and then proceeded to quickly reopen skies over El Paso in Texas as Trump claimed that cartel dornes breached American airspace. But other sources said it was a test of anti-drone technology.

Comment: the move surely made some of think US action on Mexican cartels is coming soon, but the fast reopening prevented any large market swings. And despite strong rhetoric, I am aligned with the market odds here:

In a symbolic gesture, the House of Representatives voted in favor of ending the national emergency that Trump invoked to impose tariffs on Canadian imports last year.

Comment: even if it somehow went through the senate, Trump would veto it and that’s the last we’d ever hear about the issue.

Trump is repealing the Environmental Protection Agency’s “endangerment finding”, a scientific judgment from 2019 which stated that greenhouse-gas emissions pose a risk to public health. The ruling has allowed the government to regulate eg. car emissions.

Comment: everything and anything to find the nuggets of growth as supply chains struggle.

The Americas

It was also an eventful week in the Americas as Trump’s agenda for the western hemisphere takes shape.

Air Canada cancelled all flights to Cuba after the country said it would not be able to supply international airlines with aviation fuel. The Trump administration has enforced an oil blockade on the island.

Additionally, organizers indefinitely postponed Cuba’s annual cigar festival, previously used to raise funds for Cuban healthcare system, due to the fuel blockade.

Comment: Cuba will fall, it’s just a matter of time.

American forces seized 2 tankers in the Indian Ocean that had carried Venezuelan oil. The US is still controlling who Venezuela can send oil to.

Comment: it’s mostly performative at this point.

Mark Carney supposedly held a positive conversation with Trump after POTUS threatened to block the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge linking Ontario with Michigan. Carney pointed out that Canada paid for the construction of the bridge which used American steel.

Comment: Trump will toy with Canada as trade deal negotiations approach (USMCA July 1st renegotiation).

CK Hutchison threatened legal action against Maersk should the firm take control of two ports at either side of the Panama Canal - after last month’s supreme court case, the government said a Maersk affiliate would temporarily take over the management of the port.

Comment: no one cares about these threats, I’m a bit surprised they even made the news considering that nothing will come out of it. Neither Panamian nor US nor British nor London courts will side with CK.

Asia

A quiet week in Asia after shocking elections in the previous week.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party won the first election in the country since protesters toppled Sheikh Hasina in 2024. The party won 204 out of 300 seats in the parliament. BNP has vowed to fight graft and preserve freedom of speech.

Comment: combined with a new trade deal, this is interesting. More in tariff section.

Middle East & Africa

It was another week of posturing, strongly-worded statements and equipment movement in the Middle East.

Netanyahu met with Trump, but per his words nothing definitive was reached during the meeting (only some directional understanding it seems). However, later on, Trump announced he had sent USS Gerald Ford to deploy near Iran, the second aircraft carrier engaged in the possible operation.

All of this comes as the US and Iran are getting ready for talks on Tuesday in Geneva.

Comment: despite all the negative press, I think the meetings go fairly well as subject-matter experts will now be part of the negotiations. We may be in for a massive repricing here:

Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem left his roles as chair and chief executive of DP World, an Eirati logistics giant, after his associations with Epstein came to light i the newest batch of released documents.

Comment: and so the repercussions resonate all over the world; a few people will lose their jobs, some may be prosecuted and the world will move on.

US armed forces carried out a series of strikes against the Islamic State in Syria over the past 2 weeks. CENTCOM said the strikes were in retaliation for an ambush back in December that killed 2 American soldiers and an American civil interpreter.

Comment: expected, but mostly inconsequential. Syria is no longer a threat / Iran ally.

Botswana which is a leading diamond producer unveiled tax hikes to offset sales drop and a budget deficit - year by year, lab grown diamonds are getting increasingly popular.

Comment: diamonds are a fake industry, I do hope lab-grown alternatives will push out “real diamonds”.

Europe

An interesting week on the old continent as Ukraine peace negotiations intensify amid Munich Security Conference, where last year JD Vance bashed European leaders.

Merz said that the post-war world order is no more as he opened the Munich Security Conference. The event had several important speeches, mainly from Marco Rubio, who said that the US and Europe belong together and have common civilisational bonds. While he also criticized deindustrialization and mass migration, it was seen as an attempt to bring Europe closer.

Ursula von der Leyen was reassured by Rubio’s words, but she said that some lines cannot be uncorssed. She emphasised Europe striving for independence. Keir Starmer, who is on the verge of being ousted, added that Europe developed bad habits under American security umbrella and now needs to break them. In the meantime, Kaja Kallas issued some strong words that other countries look up to European nations.

Lastly, Gavin Newsom said that Trump is temporary in an attempt to lay ground for his 2028 campaign.

Comment: the conference was a whole lot of talking that as usual is translated to very little action. I’ve been saying that Europe needs to change it ways since I started PROPHET NOTES, and here we are, 2 years later, saying the same on conferences. Nothing really worthy happened at the event, outside of Gavin Newsom ensuring us that he is seeking the democratic nomination in 2028.

Herman Halushchenko, a former Ukrainian minister, was arrested while trying to leave the country in connection to the $100 million embezzlement case from last year.

Comment: routinue cleaning.

Zelensky said he needs 2 months of ceasefire to hold an election, while Russia agreed to give 1 day to conduct it.

Comment: the usual posturing before another round of negotiations in Geneva (also tomorrow). The momentum is there though and I see a path towards 14-30 day ceasefire to conduct the election if needed. But the path is treacherous and narrow - Polymarket didn’t move at all on the news.

Anas Anwar, the Scottish Labour leader, urged Starmer to resign. And shortly after, Britain’s top civil servant, Sir Chris Wormald, was forced out by the Labour government after barely a year in the job. He is the shortest-serving cabinet secretary since the post was created in 1916.

Comment: Starmer barely clung to power for now, but as I said on the previous episode of PROPHET TALKS, he has plenty of occasions to lose the job in the near future, considering that the wolves are out.

Italian government passed a bill authorizing the use of naval blockades to stop migrants entering the country.

Comment: a massive win for conservative Giorgia Meloni. And a first country in Europe (I believe so) authorizing the use of force to prevent migrants from approaching their land. Good move if you ask me, should increase her ratings.

Karol Nawrocki told in an interview that Poland should work towards joining the nuclear project due to Russia’s aggressive stance.

Comment: sure, Poland couldn’t build a nuclear power plant in 35 years despite 2 projects being approved and one even started the construction. Current Polish elites are incapable of a project on such a grand scale.

Switzerland will hold a referendum in June on capping its 9.1 million population at 10 million.

Comment: while the regulation is mostly aimed at curbing mass migration, it is an extremely stupid idea to codify a population cap…

WhatsApp said Russia tried to fully block its services as part of a crackdown on foreign tech. Other Meta platforms are already banned in Russia, but WhatsApp held steady as millions of Russians were using it - now Russia wants them to switch to a domestic platform, MAX.

Comment: pretty logical for team east to run its own tech stack.

Business, Finance & Economics

Retail sales in America were flat in December, despite the holiday season being in full swing. The figures are not adjusted for inflation.

Comment: weather + inflation + CoL crisis takes its toll, sometimes you can’t fake it till you make it.

Pershing Square (Bill Ackman’s fund) disclosed a 10% stake in Meta. Ackman is betting on Meta being undervalued due to heavy AI spending that didn’t immediately translate to having top LLM.

Comment: Ackman must believe the tech and expertise is there to still benefit from the AI boom. He’s been known to make big bets that go spectacularly right and wrong. I will be watching this play out.

Alphabet raised $31.5 billion in a bond sale this week to finance AI investments. It also included a 100-year bond in a rare move.

Comment: Alphabet is flush with cash as far as I know so this move is interesting - long-term bond issuance means they lock in current interest rates. In a sense they must believe that future interest rates will hold steady at minimum but more likely rise, otherwise they’d bet on the short term debt.

Paramount sweetened its offer for Warner Bros. by offering to pay $2.8 billion termination fee over Netflix offer along with offering to cover $1.5 billion in fees related to debt refinancing. There is also a penalty clause for not closing the deal in time, $650 million each quarter.

Comment: it’s financial history made before our eyes. Books will be written about the battle to control the new world of entertainment between Netflix and Paramount. Barbarians at the Gate of our times.

Tariffs

America and Taiwan officially signed a trade agreement - America will reduce tariffs on Taiwan to 15%, same as Japan and South Korea. Taiwan will lower tariffs on American goods and buy billions in energy and aircrafts.

Comment: payment for defense.

Bangladesh made a trade deal with the US setting 19% tariff on most exports. Additionally, some clothing made with American cotton will enter America duty free.

Comment: seems like Bangladesh is aligning with the US.

Wrap up

And that’s all for the week. I will be working on the Ukraine deep dive for this week + I’m planning to look a bit more into SCOTUS ruling on tariffs.

Stay strong and see you soon!

Without further ado, click that subscribe button and see the world for yourself.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

A busy week in the US, both on the domestic and international front.

The State Department accused China of secretly conducting nuclear tests, most recent one in 2020.

Comment: the US is pressuring China to join the new nuclear treaty between the US and Russia. Since China’s arsenal is ever-increasing, the US (and Russia) must feel that any agreement without China is in fact favoring it.

The partial shutdown ended after House of Representatives narrowly passed the bill. But the most pressing issue of funding the DHS is postponed only till February 13th.

Comment: and the partisan fight continues.

Bill and Hillary Clinton agreed to testify in a congressional investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. They initially refused, but lawmakers planned to hold them in contempt of Congress if they didn’t cooperate.

Comment: I doubt we will hear anything groundbreaking, especially since the pair now pushes for a public hearing.

The Trump admin said it would withdraw about 700 ICE officers from Minnesota, but still 2,000 agents will remain in the state, up from 100-150 previously.

Comment: whatever happens here now will happen in relation to the DHS funding negotiations. Also future deployments are probably at stake.

Artemis II failed a wet dress rehearsal (something to do with fueling equipment), pushing the launch date from February to March the earliest.

Comment: we all are waiting for Artemis III anyway.

The Americas

A quiet week in the Americas.

The US said it had killed two suspected drug smugglers in a strike on a boat in the eastern Pacific. The total death toll of the strike campaign is now at least 128.

Comment: Trump needs domestic policy wins so we can expect more strikes to highlight his war on fentanyl.

Asia

An eventful week in Asia with surprising election results and trade deals.

Takaichi Sanae won a landslide in Japanese snap election. In a gamble, she went from having a minority government to securing a 2/3 supermajority that allows her to even change the constitution.

Comment: sometimes a gamble pays off. Now, since Takaichi is on friendly terms with Trump, we can expect a lot of cooperation between the two countries.

Anutin Charnvirakul, Thailand’s prime minister, declared victory in election for his conservative Bhumjaithai Party. It’s a major upset for Thai People’s Party that was looking to win the election.

Comment: looks like Thais got tired of trying to change anything by voting for the reformist People’s Party. No shocker since the party was already twice prevented from forming a government.

The US and India unveiled an interim trade framework ahead of the broader deal they want to sign in March. India supposedly agreed to eliminate or reduce tariffs on American industrial goods while committing to spend $500 billion on American products over the next 5 years. The US will apply a tariff of 18% on Indian imports.

Comment: this deal has 2 consequences. First, it undermines a bit a deal between India and the EU, but second, and more importantly, it puts India on the path to choose team west over team east.

At least 31 people were killed in a suicide bomb attack on a Shia mosque in Islamabad, Pakistan. Around 170 people were injured.

Comment: Shia muslims have been targeted before in Pakistan… but optics are interesting here.

Middle East & Africa

The Middle East continues to be defined by the Iranian situation this year and last week was no different.

We started the week with American navy shooting down an Iranian drone that approached the USS Abraham Lincoln, an aircraft carrier. After a series of threats, US and Iranian officials met in Oman on Friday for talks. Both sides commented on them being positive, but no breakthrough was achieved. More meetings are expected.

Between the comments, both countries continue to maintain a strong posture.

Comment: you can read my thesis on the talks here.

Saudi Arabia and Syria signed an investment deal that will involve the two countries working together to create a low cost airline and a new airport in Aleppo.

Comment: after initial Turkish success, other countries are looking to benefit from Syria’s reconstruction. It’s only fitting to see Saudi Arabia doing investment deals here.

Seif al-Islam Qaddafi, the son of Libya’s former dictator Muammar Qaddafi was reportedly killed. The situation is unclear, but his lawyer said he was assassinated at home by unknown assailants.

Comment: and so the dynasty is over. Not that it matters, since the country is divided since 2014.

Europe

And also a busy week in Europe as Ukraine talks are intensifying. But even outside of war, there is a looming crisis in the UK politics and other minor stuff worth commenting on.

Russia started to strike energy infra again, ending the pause on such attacks due to cold weather. In the meantime Ukrainians shot and injured Vladimir Alexeyev, a senior Russian general and deputy head of military intelligence in Moscow.

But when it comes to peace, the EU proposed a ban on all services provided to Russian oil tankers, to force the Kremlin back to negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. This comes when Trump said he is looking to get the peace deal by June and offered to host the next round of talks in Miami.

Comment: looks like I need to focus on Ukraine again. At the end of the year I said I see the path towards peace. The question is though if all parties manage to go on that path. Expect a deep dive soon.

Keir Starmer is in trouble as the British PM faces backlash over his appointment of Lord Mandelson as an ambassador to the US, after Lord’s close friendship came to the surface with the release of Epstein files. Starmer denies knowledge of the extent of the friendship, but it didn’t stop McSweeney’s resignation (his top aide and political advisor, who pushed for Mandelson’s appointment).

Comment: Starmer has already been unpopular. Now he faces even more backlash as his party is looking at another set of defeats in the coming byelecitons and council elections. His days might be numbered:

Spanish prime minister Pedro Sanchez said his government is looking to ban social media for under 16s.

Comment: after Australia, here comes Europe, replicating the worst legislations from around the world. There is no argument to ban social media for young, other than the laziness of the parents. Rather it is an opening to strictly regulate online presence. I would go to protests if I were a Spaniard.

Norway’s police launched a corruption investigation into Thorbjorn Jagland, a former prime minister and chair of the Nobel committee, over his links to Epstein.

Comment: another European who is having troubles because of Epstein while Americans walk without issues. At least Trump must be ecstatic now since he was not awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

Business, Finance & Economics

Tech stocks fell this week after Anthropic released it’s newest Claude LLM. It can code better, but also do some legal nad analytical work, which pushed software companies down. However, the market did rebound on Friday.

Comment: AI is good for some companies and bad for other. Claude 4.6 is nowhere close to even being a remote coder and my understanding is that we are still years away from such a model.

Rio Tinto and Glencore abandoned plans for a merger that would have created the world’s largest mining company. Both parties could agree on respective party valuation.

Comment: I don’t think it has any major implication for team west (or team east) supply chains.

Bitcoin fell below $70,000 for the first time since November 2024, giving back all the gains since Trump wont the election.

Comment: crypto winter is here… it’s good to be on prediction markets vs crypto.

Wrap up

And that’s all for the week. I will be working on the Ukraine deep dive with publish date TBD.

Stay strong and see you soon!

If you value honesty, make sure to subscribe below. If you are already here, thank you and let’s see the world as it is!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

The US had a fair share of dramas this week. Starting with ICE and ending with Epstein files, he week was as busy as it gets.

Starting with the most consequential, the DoJ released more than 3 million additional pages of Epstein files. Still millions more were withheld. The Democrats are trying to uncover them too, but the DoJ defends itself by saying these were either too brutal or parts of ongoing investigations.

Comment: what is clear from this drop is that Jeffrey Epstein was a fixer for the elites. He was willing to provide anything and handle anything for a price and it seems he was pretty good at his job. Like Ray Donovan, but also degenerate enough to participate himself.

American Senators initially reached a deal they hoped would avert a partial government shutdown. However the House Democrats later decided to split the DHS from the agreement amid the ICE issues in Minnesota. Now we are up for negotiations as Democrats demand more “safety reforms”.

Comment: Trump went too far in Minnesota and now he will have to make some concessions.

And with the Minnesota situation, first Trump appointed his border czar, Tom Homan, to manage the operations there. And then Trump said his admin would deescalate a bit its crackdown on immigration in Minnesota. He called the killing of Alex Pretti an unfortunate event and promised an honest investigation. For now the agents that shot Alex Pretti are on leave.

Comment: I believe that last week my comments here were not precise enough, as it was pointed out to me by one of you. Alex Pretti didn’t die in violent protests - what I meant (and still mean) is that ICE deployments, followed by protests (some of them violent) and tragic situations like this one have a high potential of happening and repeating this year. It’s the midterms year and Trump needs to show he’s strong on illegal migrants as the deportations are not going as fast as promised. And since the current political division in the US is at its highest, tensions will rise to such levels easily.

The Americas

Good news for Trump admin this week from the western hemisphere as all the countries seem to bend to US will.

Claudia Sheinbaum, the president of Mexico, claimed the cancellation of an oil shipment to Cuba was a sovereign decision rather than a response to American threats. Mexico has become Cuba’s biggest source of oil since the Maduro kidnapping.

Comment: sure it was… Trump is getting his Ws, but will he be able to leverage them for domestic support?

Venezuela passed a law to open the oil sector to foreign companies. Trump now claims that Delcy Rodriguez is doing America’s bidding. Delcy also said she would propose an amnesty law covering the whole chavizmo period. She also announced the closure of notorious El Helicoide prison, where political prisoners have been tortured.

Comment: for now Delcy is hanging on to power while pushing American reforms. But it’s been barely a month since the Maduro kidnapping.

Panama’s Supreme Court ruled to revoke contracts with a subsidiary of CK Hutchinson to run 2 ports at either end of the Panama Canal. The court cited financial irregularities as the main reason.

Comment: the obvious real reason for this ruling is pressure from the Trump administration in relation to Chinese control of the crucial waterway. While there is plenty of work to be done in the western hemisphere to fully eradicate team east, good work was done recently.

Asia

A quiet week in Asia, bar a visit from Kier Starmer.

Starmer had a 4-day visit in China where he was looking to strengthen economic ties. He met with Xi Jinping. For now they announced that Brits will soon be able to travel to China visa-free. The plans for greater economic partnership start with AstraZeneca investing $15 billion in China to expand manufacturing and research.

Comment: Britain is trying to hedge between two great powers, but as it is the case with Canada, it will backfire.

Middle East & Africa

The Middle East was once again the topic of the week as tensions around Iran reached the peak.

Iran has been reportedly getting ready for strikes as regional authorities were given more power in an effort to streamline the management of the country. Iranian officials also traveled to Saudi Arabia and Turkey to press their case.

At the same time Trump was threatening Iran with a massive armada and the US with Israel were teasing strikes on a daily basis. Ultimately though we are now officially in negotiations as both sides are supposedly serious about reaching a deal.

Comment: my update on the situation is coming tomorrow, building on the very correct read of the situation in my last article 2 weeks ago.

Israel has recovered the remains of the last hostage in Gaza. The return of all bodies was a condition to begin the second phase of the ceasefire. Israel is also getting ready to open the Rafah crossing that is supposed to open today.

Comment: the plan is moving forward, I must write about Gaza one day as what will happen there in the next 5-10 years will be unprecedented.

Europe

An interesting week on the old continent with quite a few headlines that flew under the radar. Also a one very outrageous piece of news.

Zelensky criticized European allies saying that delays in air defense missiles deliveries had left Ukrainian energy infrastructure more vulnerable amid harsh winter weather. Despite Trump and Putin supposedly agreeing on halting strikes due to cold weather, there is no confirmation from the Kremlin on the agreement.

Comment: this is the winter Putin was waiting for since 2023. Extreme cold that persists for days, combined with attacks on the grid can be deadly for the population and morale. The next 2 months can be crucial regarding the war.

India and the EU signed a massive trade deal. Both will reduce tariffs on more than 95% of goods, hoping to see significant increase in trade between the two (EU counts on doubling exports by 2032). The deal will also include clauses on easing migration restrictions from India to the EU.

Comment: while a trade deal alone is probably a good idea as it secures a huge export market, the mobility agreement looks like a disaster in the making. Europe already has massive migration issues, I’m really not sure adding Indians to the mix will do it any good…

I will quote the Economist here: “Spain will offer legal residency to undocumented immigrants who have lived in the country for roughly six months, an estimated 500,000 people. Spain’s economic growth has outpaced the euro-area average in recent years, thanks in part to its relative openness to immigrants, many of whom are from Latin America. The expedited-residency decree does not need parliamentary approval.”

Comment: it is outrageous that any European publication can put a statement like this to print. Essentially an illegal operation to legalize poor illegal migrants, against the will of the people, through obscure channels vs the parliament. And justifying it by quoting good economic growth (supposedly thanks to these migrants sic!), while 25% of young Spaniards are unemployed… I wonder how will Vox react.

France follows Australia as a bill banning under-15s passed in National Assembly. Now it needs to pass the Senate. Macron wants to see the measure implemented before September.

Comment: while social media are a cesspool of propaganda, disinformation and degeneracy, they also have value, even for 15 year olds. Parents should control their children, not governments. I sincerely hope the bill fails.

Business, Finance & Economics

Some big news (and swings) in the world of finance last week. Very consequential.

Trump announced that Kevin Warsh will be his nominee to become the new chair of the Fed. He is a former Fed governor that is keen on cutting rates (but also on reducing Fed balance sheet, which is not exactly Trump’s wish).

Comment: Warsh is not an extreme pick. While keen to cut, he won’t always see eye to eye with Trump. So we can expect a lot of volatility after May as he tries to build consensus on the board.

Speaking of the Fed, it left the rate unchanged, as expected. However, Powell didn’t provide us with any guidance when it comes to next FOMC meetings.

Comment: Trump will seethe and cry, but he is powerless now. Only 4 months to go.

Gold and silver gave back a lot of recent gains as precious metals violently fell after Trump confirmed his Warsh pick.

Comment: there are plenty of theories on what sparked both the move up and down and I won’t LARP here as someone who knows better. But it’s highly suspicious to see a move like that on such a big asset.

German police raided Deutsche Bank’s offices in Frankfurt and Berlin on suspicion of money laundering.

Comment: just another day for the meme investment bank. As always though, it will come out of it with a slap on the wrist.

Zijin Gold, a Chinese mining giant, said it would buy Allied Gold, a Canadian rival with big operations in Africa, for around $4bn.

Comment: Trump won’t be happy about that one for sure.

Amazon said it would cut 16,000 jobs in the second round of layoffs in 3 months. The firm has not ruled out further cuts.

Comment: it is brutal in the corporate world, but we can expect to hear such news for the foreseeable future. AI is nowhere close to AGI (or even an autonomous coder), but it is good enough to significantly raise productivity.

Tesla ends production of S and X models as it scales its robot production. It also had a first year down in terms of revenue amid the Chinese competition. And supposedly there is a merger coming between some of Musk’s companies.

Comment: Elon Musk is the master of getting government contracts, he will figure something out to maintain Tesla’s share price. After all his entire wealth depends on it.

Tariffs

Trump said he would increase some tariffs on South Korea, mainly cars, lumber and pharmaceuticals, from 15% to 25% as the country struggles to meet its commitment to the US.

Comment: just another negotiation, Trump is pressuring South Korea.

Wrap up

And that’s all for the week. It’s definitely a busy year so when it comes to next content, I expect a January recap to go live by Wednesday as well as an update on Iran to follow by Friday. There is plenty of ground to cover in what is a volatile negotiation between the US and Iran. The previous piece covered the overall context and developments till an official negotiations start. Now it’s time to see where it can go.

All the while, prediction markets continue to dominate the discourse, less so as a place to gamble, and more as a source of information. We are on the frontier of geopolitical analysis here so click that subscribe button and see the world for yourself!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

The domestic news cycle was dominated by another ICE shooting in Minnesota; but the real deal of the week were the new National Defense Strategy and massive winter storms.

The Pentagon released its new National Defense Strategy. Updated after 4 years, it draws heavily from the NSS published at the end of 2025.

Comment: I’m in the process of reading it, but there is nothing especially shocking if you read the NSS or listened to Trump anywhere during the last 2 years.

More than 20 states declared a state of emergency, 15,000 flights were grounded and up to a foot of snow fell across the US as Storm Fern brought extreme winter conditions. Almost 1 million people were left without power.

Comment: imagine what a harsh winter it is for Ukraine. That being said hope that all of you, my American readers, are doing good!

ICE agents killed a man in Minneapolis. Video of the incident shows several agents wrestling the man to the ground before shooting him multiple times. The Department of Homeland Security claims the victim had a gun and refused to disarm. Tim Walz called on the Trump admin to end the crackdown in his state.

Comment: expect such actions (violent protests, not necessarily killings) to be in the permanent line-up of the news cycle this year. I’m in the meantime eyeing the invocation of the Insurrection Act.

Trump filed a lawsuit against JP Morgan and Jamie Dimon, accusing it of cutting ties with him for political reasons. Trump demanded $5 billion in compensation. It is part of Trump’s campaign against debanking.

Comment: excellent, I hope they won’t settle (unlikely) and the courts order the bank to pay even more. Banks are way too rigid and politicized.

The Americas

Today we have the trifecta - Canada, Greenland and Venezuela. Greenland was an especially hot topic, but as usual, the endgame is way less sensational.

Mark Carney, after signing a flurry of deals with China, went to Davos and made a speech that shocked the world. He repeated the X classic of the end of the rules-based order, the multipolar world, etc. Trump threatened 100% tariffs in response, unless the deal with China is off the table; he said he wouldn’t allow Canada to become a drop off port for Chinese goods bound for the US.

Comment: besides powerful speeches and nice-looking photo-ops, Carney is in a bit of a pickle. It seems he didn’t really consult the deals with some of the local communities, eg. auto-producing Ontario. He also might have underestimated Trump’s reaction. I expect trade deal negotiations with the US to be especially harsh after this little performance.

Davos was full of Greenland threats coming from both sides. Trump wanted it all while Denmark was sending additional troops to the island. But ultimately Trump with Rutte agreed on a framework of a deal on using some land. And so the tariffs were withdrawn.

Comment: this is classic Trump - give outrageous demands to settle for exactly what you want. It amazes me how most still can’t see it for what it is. BTW article on how the deal might look like is coming, hopefully this week.

Venezuela’s national assembly voted to open up the oil sector to domestic and foreign companies. It needs to pass a second vote, but after that private firms will be allowed to operate oil fields and profit from exports for a royalty paid to the state. Media are also questioning whether any American oil giants would want to invest in Venezuela.

Comment: seems like Delcy is managing her stakeholders pretty well while pushing legislation to appease the Americans. Let’s see how long will it last. On the issue of American giants investing in Venezuela, worry not; they will be forced by Trump if they don’t do this willingly.

Asia

RUMINT from Asia suggests we had a coup attempt in China, however we should all remain cautious of such rumors. One that is certain is that something did happen.

Chinese defense ministry first said it was investigating Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, two high-level military officials. Mr Zhang was also one of the most trusted advisors to Xi. Then China’s official newspaper accused Zhang and Lui of enabling corruption and challenging the authority of Xi Jinping. Ultimately Zhang is also accused of leaking secrets about nuclear program to the US.

Comment: as the mantra goes: “don’t believe anything that goes out of China”. But at the same time there is a grain of truth in everything. Most probably what we are witnessing is an aftermath of a coup attempt of sorts, however it is unclear how far it could have went. I wouldn’t spend my time on this as there is low chance we can now the internal affairs of the Chinese.

As Takaichi Sanae is bracing for snap election she triggered, bonds react accordingly by their yields rising to 4%. Investors are likely concerned about her plan to cut taxes.

Comment: I don’t have a proper economics thesis now… yen has been in an interesting situation for some time now. Also a lot depends on the Fed choice. Let me know if you want a deep dive on economics for this year.

To Lam won a new five-year term as a leader of Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party, after an unanimous vote. He pledged to pursue national growth of at least 10% and overhaul the economy.

Comment: I didn’t go very deep here, but it seems bullish for Vietnam as he is a reformist looking to obtain presidency as well and foreign investors like his plans.

Middle East & Africa

It was a rather quiet week in the Middle East & Africa, but a lot happened that can shape the future of the region.

Trump officially launched his Board of Peace in Davos. Over 20 countries accepted the invitation, many more still mull it (including Russia and Belarus), while others (mainly Western Europe) rejected it.

As the Board of Peace marks the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, Trump also unveiled plans for a new Gaza. Under the scheme, around $30 billion would be invested into building hotels, industrial complexes and data centers.

Comment: it looks like Trump is looking to make Gaza a special economic zone in the Middle East. He also seems to want to make the Board of Peace something more than just a body governing Gaza. I wouldn’t call it the new UN, but rather a cluster of countries that at least somehow want to be aligned with the US.

Syrian army extended its ceasefire with the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish militia, for 15 days. Syria wants them to disarm and integrate into the Syrian armed forces.

Comment: I think the US is trying to pressure both sides to make a deal so the Kurds finally have a place to live (or get them ready to attack Iran). We are in very early stages of the process of giving Kurds at least some autonomy, or a comfort to live on a country that accepts them, but it will be a bumpy process.

Uganda’s army chief said that the security forces had detained ca. 2,000 opposition supporters and killed 30 people after a disputed election on January 15th.

Comment: just another day in Africa, there power belongs to the strongest. At least until team west reengages on the continent.

Europe

While Europe was extremely busy this week with Davos, the real European developments centered about the (justified) outrage about Greenland (already covered), Ukraine peace and some domestic developments across European nations.

Zelensky initially cancelled his plans to travel to Davos, due to a dire situation in the country, but ultimately the allure of the Swiss Alps was too much (allow me at least one joke, I know we are talking serious business here). So he talked with Trump, Witkoff talked with Putin and now Russian, Ukrainian and American delegations are talking in Abu Dhabi. The talks will continue this week.

Comment: there is a path towards peace, although a lot still needs to happen. I see I need to do a Ukraine conflict deep dive soon.

Sebastian Lecornu said he would force the French budget through parliament without a vote. He faced 2 no confidence votes and prevailed, saving the French budget for now.

Comment: we will have a repeat this year, but the important event is the 2027 presidential election. And I assume the second part of the year will be extremely interesting in the French politics.

The president of Bulgaria, Rumen Radev, said he would resign from office. The announcement comes as the country had 7 parliamentary elections in the last 4 years. Radev served the mostly presidential role for 9 years and is expected to form his own party now. He is a known eurosceptic.

Comment: another European election to track. 2026 is looking awesome from prediction markets perspective.

Britain gave a go-ahead to Chinese plans to build a large embassy complex in London after years of delays. Critics say that the size and proximity to London’s financial center can facilitate spying.

Comment: and the critics are right, what a disgrace. Either the elites are clueless or complicit.

Business, Finance & Economics

There was nothing especially groundbreaking in finance this week, but a few interesting developments for the future happened anyway.

Micron, an American memory chip developer, said it would buy a Taiwanese plant for $1.8 billion to help meet rising global demand. AI data centers squeeze the supply for these chips.

Comment: hardware for me but not for thee. The fight for resources continue in the AI race, after graphic cards it is mamory-chips and pretty soon it will be electricity.

Czechoslovak Group, a Czech arms maker, raised $3.8 billion in its IPO on Friday in the largest defense IPO ever.

Comment: European defense industry grows and is looking for financing wherever it can. Rheinmetall was pitched as a good investment here a while ago already.

Blue Origin is looking to compete with Starlink as it plans to launch a satellite-internet service. Initial launch is planned for 5,408 satellites in late 2027. Bezos is looking to target business clients, data centers and governments.

Comment: good targeting from Bezos, these government contracts are too good to miss.

ByteDance x US deal is done and the new joint venture can operate in the US.

Comment: the fake deal is done and now we can finally forget about the topic.

Wrap up

So stay strong and see you soon!

This title has many meanings, from Powell, to Somalia, to Iran (maybe), to Venezuela (also maybe). But this year gives us no rest as we have developments around the globe on a daily basis. No weekends when you work in geopolitics.

But no crying in the casino, we have plenty of material to cover and this is what we like the most. So hop on and see the world for yourself.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

After end of year festivities we are back to regular programing of international turmoil and domestic war with immigrants and the collective “woke” as part of the 2026 midterms campaign.

The White House is considering a range of options to acquire Greenland, not ruling out military action. Also Marco Rubio said he would meet Danish officials on Wednesday to discuss the matter. And later on Trump reiterated that America must own Greenland to save it from Russia and China.

Comment: there is no denying that Greenland is a strategic place for the US, especially against Russia. And I do believe we will see some kind of a deal eventually, but it might not be annexation, or purchase - it may as well be a security agreement that grants the US a lot of rights around deploying military assets, creates “special zones” of sorts, or other solutions that grant de facto military control over the island to the US without annexation.

After days of pursuit, the US seized Marinera, an oil tanker that has been escaping from Venezuela, and even escorted by a Russian submarine at some point.

Comment: it was bound to happen eventually, the big question we won’t get answer to is - what was on that tanker that was so important? Or was it just a play, Americans not wanting to allow it to leave and Russians toying with Americans? I guess we will never know.

Trump told Republicans in the House that he would get impeached if GOP lost control of Congress in November.

Comment: they will try, but I don’t see them succeeding. But more importantly, the 2026 midterms campaign has officially started! We are looking towards an extremely busy year.

An ICE officer fatally shot a woman, Renee Nicole Good, in Minneapolis, Minnesota while carrying out a raid. The FBI is investigating the incident, while the White House released a video from the shooting. Quite expectedly, the incident was followed by massive protests with tens of thousands of people out on the streets. In response, Kristi Noem is sending more federal agents to Minneapolis while protests spread to other cities.

Comment: welcome to 2026 midterms campaign. It will be nasty.

The Americas

While the situation in Venezuela is uncertain, but stable for now, Trump is setting sights on Mexico and Cuba.

Maduro pleaded bot guilty to charges of drug trafficking in a federal court. As did his wife Cilia Flores.

Comment: it will be the case of the decade, in prime time just in time for 2026 midterms campaign peak.

Delcy Rodriguez as formally sworn in as interim president of Venezuela, while trying to balance internal power struggle with American pressure. She is also facing Machado’s return in the near future.

Comment: the situation in Venezuela is hardly over. Supposedly the streets of Caracas are not safe for supporters of American intervention. And there is a chance Machado contests her at some point.

Trump said Venezuelan authorities had agreed to export up to 50 million barrels of oil to America. It would be sold at market prices and benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States. Trump also said that the US would control the sale of oil from Venezuela indefinitely. He also refused to provide a deadline for the US running Venezuela and is now pressuring oil giants to invest in Venezuela.

Comment: it’s not about oil per se. It’s about denying China and Cuba the oil they need so much.

Trump warned Cuba that it would no longer receive Venezuelan oil and told it to make a deal with America before it’s too late.

Comment: I said it months ago, Cuba is very important in the Venezuelan situation and will be next.

Asia

This week Asia is a mix of flexing, agreements and… be your own judge of the last news.

China banned exports to Japan of dual-use items. Japan’s foreign minister demanded a reversal of the ban.

Comment: Japan will now put constant pressure on China and vice versa. Gonna be a fun year in the Indo-Pacific.

Cambodia arrested Chen Zi and extradited him to China. He is one of the masterminds behind the SEA scam centers.

Comment: as the linked articles explain, Chen Zi was an instrumental part of the scam center business, linked to Cambodian and Thai elites. His arrest and extradition probably indefinitely ends the Thailand-Cambodia conflict. Thailand military engaged in the war partly to cover the scandal and partly to end the situation.

Elections in Myanmar entered the second of three stages.

Comment: I’m not exactly sure what is the purpose of the election as the country is in a literal civil war. I guess I need to read on the situation a bit more.

Middle East & Africa

Middle East is once again boiling with protests in Iran and the situation in Yemen.

Amid the protests in the country, Khamenei vowed to not back down as the regime is trying to negotiate with the real protesters and trumping down on the more violent ones. Nevertheless, the protests turned violent as the regime started to supposedly shoot the protesters. However we have little visibility into the situation as internet in Iran is blocked since January 8.

Iran also said that Israeli and American troops and bases will become a legitimate target in case of attack on Iran.

The protests are supposedly being organized with the help of Reza Pahlavi through the internet (sic!), he also vowed to go back to Iran soon (sic!).

Comment: the situation in Iran deserves its own deep dive which is coming this week. But to not leave you hanging here, it appears there is a lot more propaganda than truth in most of the reports, since there is close to zero access to footage from Iran. That being said there is definitely something happening in Iran and I will explore causes, reasons and options in my piece this week. Also Iranians in the country (expats are reverse in this case) are not fond of Pahlavi family, after all they came to power thanks to CIA and UK joint coup d’etat.

UAE and Saudi backed factions fight in Yemen, rising tensions between the two countries.

Comment: I didn’t follow the situation in Iran since I think August or July, when there was info on increased shipments to Yemen, suggesting some kind of military action coming soon. Seems like the preparation was for something much bigger and current UAE-Saudi fighting is for a pole position in the next phase, rather than a real conflict.

Europe

Europe this week is a mix of usual Ukraine news, freezing cold and old deals.

Ukraine’s allies signed security guarantees for the country in the event of peace. Britain and France committed to sending troops and establishing military hubs in Ukraine.

Comment: meaningless without an actual deal, but in this regard 2026 might be a bit different to 2025 - stay tuned!

Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s former finance minister is the new economic adviser of Zelensky, pro bono.

Comment: is it Canada securing deals for rebuilding Ukraine? Maybe.

6 people died and hundreds of flights were cancelled after Arctic cold descended on Europe.

Comment: Putin has been waiting for such a harsh winter for 4 years. But jokes aside, I think European gas supply is pretty robust for now.

The EU agreed to a trade deal with Mercosur after more than 25 years of negotiations.

Comment: it’s a deal that now secures ample food supply in return for maybe saving the German auto industry, securing a new market for the cars. But ultimately it will also decimate European farming industry as farmers from France, Poland, Ireland and other food exporting nations of the EU protest. But at least we know that Germany rules the EU uncontested for now.

Business, Finance & Economics

The DoJ launched a criminal investigation into Powell for his supposed lies to Congress about the costs of renovating the Fed building.

Comment: team Trump is either dumb, needed a topic of distraction, needs the rates to go down faster or needs to show to the upcoming Fed chair what are the consequences of insubordination. This is generally a stupid move as protections for the Fed governors are robust and such a case will take months to resolve. Whatever happens though, we will see a new Fed in the second half of the year.

Meta is delaying the launch of its newest Ray-Ban display smart glasses outside of America due to overwhelming domestic interest and extremely limited inventory.

Comment: China’s embargo are working after all and Trump’s tariff don’t help.

Glencore and Rio Tinto resumed talks about an all-share merger that would create the world’s biggest mining company.

Comment: economies of scale are important, a lot of capex is needed in the next years.

Meta struck deals with several nuclear power companies to meet electricity needs of AI data centers in the coming years.

Comment: autonomous coding agents are coming for software engineering jobs and electricity deals will determine if they are really cheaper than humans. Google is also going that way.

Google said that American users of Gemini would soon be able to buy things through the model from shops like Walmart and Shopify stores.

Comment: in the meantime, the AI needs to make some money.

Wrap up

And that’s all for today! I’m a bit late with my video on 10 predictions for 2026 due to rapidly unfolding situations around the globe. Priority now is the article on Iran situation, followed by the video. Both hopefully this week (Iran surely).

Stay strong and see you soon!

So without further ado, click that subscribe button and see the world for yourself.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Greenland is once again a topic as Trump sparked a backlash in Denmark and Greenland after naming an envoy there, Jeff Landry, the governor of Louisiana.

Comment: the Monroe Doctrine looks both south and north.

The Trump admin paused leases for 5 large wind farms that were under construction on the east coast. Cited reason is national security risk.

Comment: wind is dead, conventional and nuclear are the way. It’s no time to fight climate change, energy must be first and foremost cheap.

The DoJ continues to release the Epstein files. They also communicated about finding additional 1 million files that they need to go through.

Comment: considering that Trump is now in full control of the Epstein narrative, the staggered release along with a promise of weeks of new drops means team Trump wants to make this situation about Democrats to hurt them before the midterms. I will be watching the next drops to understand if that is the case.

The Americas

A lot is happening in Venezuela. The US is chasing tankers, while the regime is under a naval blockade. On top of that there are rumors, or rather a direct statement from POTUS, that the US struck a facility in Venezuela on December 24th.

Comment: peace through strength, TACO only works with tariffs.

Nasry Asfura was declared the winner of Honduras presidential election.

Comment: Trump gets what he wants when it comes to South America. There is no other way, no one will come to rescue.

Jair Bolsonaro endorsed his son, Flavio, to be the next president. The elecitons will be held in October.

Comment: this will probably be the most interesting election in 2026.

Asia

China launched new, massive military drills around Taiwan.

Comment: this is most likely a response to the announced aid package from the US. But make no mistake, the chance of the actual invasion is extremely low. China is keen to see its approach of a thousand cuts to fruition.

Najib Razak was sentenced to 15 years in prison for abusing power and money laundering in the largest trial yet related to Malaysia’s 1MDB scandal.

Comment: wonder what will happen once the scam center scandal is unraveled.

Thailand and Cambodia agreed to an immediate ceasefire.

Comment: negotiations about scam centers are progressing.

Myanmar general election is ongoing.

Comment: does it really matter? The country is in a deep civil war anyway and the junta cannot overcome it.

Middle East & Africa

The US launched strikes against ISIS in Nigeria on the Christmas Eve. The Nigerian government had approved the strikes. Pete Hegseth also warned of more strikes.

Comment: the scramble for Africa.

Somalia’s capital held a municipal election, the first in decades, as Israel recognized Somaliland.

Comment: as above, 2026 will be wild when it comes to Africa. I had it booked for later to be honest.

The Libyan army’s chief of staff died in a plane crash in Turkey, where he had been on an official visit. The cause of the crash remains unknown.

Comment: do I have to repeat myself?

Europe

There was plenty happening around Ukraine. Bilateral meetings between the US and Ukraine and the US and Russia yielded enough of a progress for Zelensky to come to the White House. But nothing came out of the visit as Putin rejected the proposal for a ceasefire to conduct a referendum. However, the deal is supposedly 95% done with US security guarantees already decided.d

Comment: as I wrote on X, there is a vibe shift in the peace process and there is an opportunity to reach an agreement now.

This comes as Russia advances on Siversk, and while Ukraine and Russia deal each other strong blows.

Comment: Russia was and will continue to project strength as it tries to force Ukraine into an unfavorable ceasefire.

France’s National Assembly passed a stopgap bill to keep the government running throughout January. However, there is still a fundamental problem in the ruling aprty not being able to pass the budget.

Comment: as long as Macron is in there is no chance for a consensus.

Business, Finance & Economics

After a very favorable CPI print now we learn that the US GDP grew by 4.3% y/y in Q3.

Comment: Slightly cooked numbers continue to pour to. create an illusion of prosperity.

Silver and gold rally on no apparent news.

Comment: silver is an important element in many processes and its main supply comes from being a byproduct of other mining and smelting. 2026 is going to be interesting.

Uber and Lyft announced they plan to test autonomous vehicles manufactured by Baidu in London next year.

Comment: European auto industry is done…

Wrap up

And that’s all for the week. As I focus really hard on Venezuela right now, I will post the video in the next couple of days along with an update on Russia and Indo-Pacific, especially considering the Taiwan escalation.

Stay strong and see you soon!

Welcome back to another week! As end of year festivities are nearing we shall hear a bit less about global affairs, and more about your uncle’s recent investments. But jokes aside, lack of new developments leaves us with a full plate anyway.

We finish 2025 with Ukraine war in full swing, Thailand-Cambodia war gaining steam and a possible regime change operation in Venezuela. Next year we are poised to see even more developments, but more on that in my 10 predictions for 2026 coming soon.

For now, let’s see the world as it is now, 9 days before a year that could easily trump 2025 as the most wild in a long while.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Democrats criticized Trump over heavily redacted Epstein files release, that is also spread over several weeks despite the bill citing December 19th as a deadline.

Comment: expect Democrats to slow-roll the topic for months during the midterms campaign.

Senate approved National Defense Authorization Act and sent it to Trump, who signed it. It permits $901 billion in spending for the fiscal year 2026. It also reauthorizes $400 million in aid for Ukraine.

Comment: ultimately Trump cannot do much without Congress when it comes to foreign policy strategy.

In a prime time TV national address, Trump boasted about his accomplishments, but the most important part of the speech was announcing a $1,776 warrior dividend for all active duty military.

Comment: wonder why he felt he needs to pay soldiers a Christmas bonus, huh?

The suspect in the Brown University shooting was found dead, reportedly taking his own life. He is also suspected of a MIT professor shooting.

Comment: no comment here.

The Trump administration expanded its travel ban, adding Burkina Faso, Laos, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, South Sudan and Syria to the list. 15 other countries face additional restrictions.

Comment: migration will continue to be heavily guarded, also on the ally / adversary axis.

The Americas

Trump ordered a complete blockade of oil tankers under sanctions that leave or enter Venezuela as the country is surrounded by the largest Armada in South America’s history.

The administration also announced it boarded 2 tankers trying to breach the blockade and is in pursuit of a third one since.

Comment: the US continues to escalate in the region, hoping it can force Maduro out without a serious military engagement. But hope is for the hopeless and they know it - otherwise, what’s the point of a warrior dividend.

Asia

Thailand and Cambodia agreed to resume ceasefire talks on Wednesday, however they shall reflect realities on the ground, per the Thai side.

Comment: Thailand continues to maintain a strong posture and is unwilling to compromise. I don’t see the new talks resulting in a quick n’ easy ceasefire.

Korea Zinc, the world’s largest zinc smelter, announced it was partnering with the Trump admin to build a $7.4 billion plant in Tennessee. It is supposed to go live by 2029 and produce zinc, copper and other materials.

Comment: the US is trying to reshore key industries. One small plant is only a tiny part of the effort that will take years to complete. And plenty can happen by 2029. The US is late to the game, but it doesn’t hurt to try and play catch-up.

North Korea rebuked a Japanese official suggesting that the country should possess nukes, saying it should be prevented at any cost.

Comment: non-proliferation will be more and more difficult as countries are urged to spend more on defense. For many smaller countries facing a larger adversary, a nuke is a logical step forward for effective deterrence. Seemingly there are talks in Japan, I know there are high-level discussions in Poland (only ideas for now) and I wouldn’t be shocked if Germany tries to get one.

A Pakistani court sentenced Imran Khan and his wife, Bushra Bibi, to 17 years in prison. This time, the former prime minister and his wife were convicted of buying luxury gifts at heavily discounted prices, causing losses to the state.

Comment: this is what happens in Pakistan when you go against the military, even with a mystic by your side it seems.

Middle East & Africa

Netanyahu plans to brief Trump on options for new strikes on Iran as ISrael believes Iran is rebuilding its ballistic missile program.

Comment: I don’t think there is willingness in either, the administration or Pentagon, to strike Iran now. Even with a ballistic missile program ,the country is a shadow of its former self for the foreseeable future. That being said, Israel definitely didn’t finish the job back in the summer and is surely keen to strike again.

Lebanon is reportedly close to completing the disarmament of Hezbollah south of the Litani river in southern Lebanon. They have time till the end of they year per the ceasefire agreement.

Comment: in pains, but it will happen as Hezbollah can no longer enjoy fresh deliveries.

The Rwanda backed M23 militia agreed to withdraw from Uvira, a city in eastern Congo, on a request by Trump. However, they are still yet to do it.

Comment: nothing to add for now, will focus on Africa more next year.

Europe

Europe and the US reportedly agreed (in principle, so nothing concrete) to provide Ukraine with NATO-like security guarantees.

At the same time Europe agreed to loan Ukraine €90 billion, to be repaid only if Russia pays reparations to Ukraine.

On top of that we have Ukrainian , Russian and European delegations meeting in Florida, however with little success.

Especially since Putin called European leaders “little pigs” who want to profit from Russia’s collapse.

Comment: the peace effort at this point is a farce since Ukraine is now fully funded till at least mid 2027. Putin is also happy to achieve his maximalist demands on the battleground, so we will see them continue to fight for the foreseeable future.

Ukraine’s intelligence agency said it successfully used for the first time underwater drones. They struck a Russian submarine in Novorossiysk, a Black Sea port. Ukraine claims it suffered critical damage while Russia denies it.

Comment: it’s way harder to find a sub when it is swimming somewhere at the sea, but underwater drones will surely be used in future conflicts. They won’t change the battlefield as much as flying ones though.

The EU rolled back its rules that would have banned new petrol and diesel cars by 2035. It will instead mandate a 90% reduction in tailpipe emissions compared to 2021 levels.

Comment: I’m not sure it is enough now to save the German auto industry. The EU policies slowly killed the once best auto companies in the world and with Chinese competition running strong around the world, it might be too little too late to reverse the course.

Business, Finance & Economics

US economy added 64,000 jobs in November, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in 4 years.

Comment: slowly, but surely, the weakness in the economy is showing itself. This is something that people have been observing since the pandemic and as the supply chain war is progressing, we will see more deterioration.

Britain’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1%. The country is grappling with a stagnating economy as well.

Comment: same situation as above to be honest.

Business activity in euro area slowed more than expected in December, dragged down by a downturn in Germany. S&P Global’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped to 51.9, just above the threshold for contraction.

Comment: same same, as some say, the worst is yet to come.

BOJ raised short term rates by 25bps to 0.75%, a 30-year high.

Comment: Japan has been battling deflation for years thus rising prices present a completely new set of issues, starting with a staggering 240% debt to GDP ratio. All kinds of funky situations might unravel if we see the situation persists and rates going even higher.

After a long negotiation, ByteDance signed biding agreements to form a joint venture, led by Oracle, that will operate TikTok in the US.

Comment: it’s mostly a fake deal as American investors will hold less than 50% of the JV and retain no ownership over algorithm.

Tariffs

China cut tariffs on pork imports from EU, with the final rates being about 2/3 lower than originally threatened.

Comment: a man got to eat. Especially when the Chinese import $2 billion worth of European pork.

Wrap up

And that’s all for the week. Expect the NSS deep dive in the next couple of days as well as a video on my 10 predictions for 2025 this week.

Stay strong and see you soon!

But looking ahead we have an interesting mix of global events - the Ukraine peace process which is dragging for several weeks now, new escalations around Venezuela and a war in South East Asia that is more complex that may seem.

This and more in today’s global outlook - subscribe below and see the world for yourself.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

Conservative justices at SCOTUS signaled they would uphold Trump’s dismissal of Rebecca Slaughter from the FTC. Lower courts blocked the attempt based on the Humphrey’s Executor v. United States precedent set in 1935.

Comment: despite the precedent being limited in the recent decades, a move to completely overturn it will be a massive win for Trump in his effort to expand presidential powers.

The Trump administration presented a $12 billion package for farmers as they struggle with falling crop prices, the effect of tariffs and low Chinese demand.

Comment: welcome to part 2 of tariffs - subsidies. After a few months of high tariffs, their effect is starting to be visible across many industries. Those who struggle the most and are crucial to national security will now receive government subsidies.

Trump allowed Nvidia to export H200 chips to approved customers in China. He also claimed that the US government will get 25% of the price. Chips area generation behind latest models.

Comment: global supply chain war is tough to fight - no country can go all in as it would destroy itself in the process. Here the Trump admin is trying to balance the denial of technology with AI bubble concerns - essentially Nvidia needs to beat earnings constantly to keep up the bubble long enough to see outsized returns on AI capex.

Grand jury materials related to the investigation of Ghislaine Maxwell were ordered to be unsealed. The DOJ cited the Epstein disclosure bill as a reason for the request.

Comment: do you think we will learn anything substantial? I doubt it.

There was a shooting at Brown University, leaving 2 people dead and 9 injured. The suspect is still at large with a manhunt ongoing.

Comment: usual USA, the people are divided and angry. It will happen again…

The Americas

The US seized a very large oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. It was a previously sanctioned tanker and it is now en route to the US. The US also imposed sanctions on 3 family members of Maduro and 6 companies operating in the oil sector there.

Comment: seizing a tanker is a new escalation in the confrontation between the US and Venezuela. It still short of actual land strikes, let alone invasion, but it sends an important signal relating to other wars (especially Ukraine) - targeting oil is a viable way to pressure the enemy, that is short of an actual war.

Maria Corina Machado was extracted from Venezuela to accept her Nobel PEace Prize in Oslo. She was a few hours late, but the news captured the attention of the world for a couple of days.

Comment: the US is showing that it can already do whatever it wants in Venezuela, including an extraction of a state enemy number 1. Also it seems they are planning to get her back to the country soon.

Brazil’s lower house passed a bill that could shorten Bolsonaro’s 27-year sentence by as much as 25 years while the Trump admin removed sanctions it imposed on Alexandre de Moraes, a Brazilian Supreme Court judge, and started to reverse some of the steep tariffs on the country.

Comment: it does seem that Brazil, scared by the amount of focus and pressure on the western hemisphere by the US, is trying to work with the US. Shortening Bolsonaro’s sentence is a gesture of goodwill to Trump, although it seems we are just at the beginning of the process.

Asia

Fighting is ongoing between Thailand and Cambodia. It is despite Trump announcing a new ceasefire and over 500,000 people being displaced on both sides of the border. As a result, Cambodia also closed the entire border with Thailand and withdrew from South East Asian Games, held now in Thailand.

On top of that the prime minister of Thailand resigned on Friday, paving a way for new election (or not really!). Thailand also announced it is planning to block oil tankers coming to Cambodia. And the people seem to love it!

Comment: Thai politics is surely interesting and at the center of current conflict we have Thai corruption scandal, Cambodian scam centers (they are primary targets btw as they sit by the border) and international money laundering. Of course, that’s just one of the theses, but the other overwhelming one is that Thailand, emboldened by the death of the rules-based order, decided to expand its influence and politically take over Cambodia. Oh and the prime minister resigning doesn’t mean new election sooner as the media writes - as long as there is war on the border and people are displaced, no election can happen. Essentially, the prime minister ceded the power to the military as now the government is just a facade. And all of this comes as Thailand sees 10% lower tourism this year.

The US condemns China aiming of radars at Japanese planes. It’s the first criticism after the incident.

Comment: as it was written in the new NSS, the US will be happy to back Japan as it undermines China in the region.

Two gunmen killed at least 15 people at a Jewish Hanukkah celebration on Bondi Beach in Sydney. One attacker was shot dead and the other one is in critical condition.

Comment: the US is not the only country with societal issues. Quite the contrary - most of team west struggles with the issue!

Middle East & Africa

Three Americans (two soldiers and a civilian interpreter) were killed in Syria. The Pentagon claims they had been supporting operations to counter ISIS when they came under fire from a lone gunman who was killed on site. Three other Americans were wounded.

Comment: I doubt this will be enough to destabilize the region.

Israel killed Raed Saad, a senior Hamas commander in a strike on Gaza. As a result, Hamas is threatening to void the ceasefire and asked Trump to press Israel to enforce it.

Comment: Hamas can’t do anything without outside backing, which it has none at the moment. However Israel is on the edge, any outsized killings can encourage Hamas’s allies to once again start to provide them supplies.

Europe

Zelensky presented a refined peace plan to the US. Parts of it include holding elections if the US and Europe ensure security. Additionally he opened a way to cede territory, proposing to hold a referendum. And he said Ukraine would drop NATO bid if it is presented with very robust security guarantees.

In the meantime, Europe agreed to freeze Russian assets indefinitely.

Comment: the peace plan is of course going nowhere. The game is not about a ceasefire - it is about optics as neither side wants to look bad due to leaving negotiations. And all of this happens as Europe is trying to use frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine. Once it happens, expect any peace effort to stop.

Lithuania declared a state of emergency after smuggler balloons entered its airspace from Belarus. It has already happened several times, forcing airports to close down. Belarus denies responsibility.

Comment: it’s just a part of hybrid warfare from Russia. The military and society is kept on a constant edge - more such events will follow, as I keep saying for quite some time now.

Belarus released 123 prisoners as part of an American-brokered deal. In return, the US lifted some of the sanctions, including potash, an ingredient in fertilizer.

Comment: Lukashenko is trying to balance between Russia and team west as he is increasingly pressured to be swollen by Russia. I still doubt there is a way for him and Belarus to go west, as this has been already tried before and stopped for this very reason.

Bulgaria’s government collapsed after weeks of anti-corruption and anti new tax hikes protests. The collapse comes just weeks before Bulgaria joins the eurozone.

Comment: nothing much here, expect the liberal left to win the next election ;)

As Bulgarian protests end, Hungary ones begin. Sparked by a leaked video of beatings in juvenile detention center, they are calling for Orban to step down.

Comment: as we are nearing the election in Hungary, expect to see a lot of pressure on Orban in the western media. But to see if he can win this time, it will be better to listen to domestic sources, as it was the case with the Polish presidential election this year.

The European Commission began investigating whether Google’s roll-out of AI-generated summaries on the search engine breached antitrust laws.

Comment: as the US is focusing away from Europe, diverting funding in the process, Europe is poised to begin more such cases to extract money from American giants. It’s a third such case in 2 weeks that we hear of.

Business, Finance & Economics

The Fed lowered the interest rates by another 25bps to 3.5-3.75%. It was the third consecutive cut.

Comment: as long as we have Powell in, we will have every decision telegraphed by Nick Timiraos. The real fun will begin when the new chair is in!

Price of silver rose above $60 per troy ounce, another ATH. Allow me to not quote headline reasons for it here.

Comment: the price of silver going up is not related to inflation, or rate cut decision. It is related to supply chain disruption and China controlling the vast majority of various metal processing that yields silver as a byproduct.

Wrap up

And that’s all for the week. Expect the NSS deep dive in the next couple of days as well as a video on my 10 predictions for 2025 this week.

Stay strong and see you soon!

Never a dull day in 2025. And everything points to 2026 being at least equally as interesting. But more on this with my upcoming predictions for 2026. Now let’s focus on last week so hit that subscribe button and follow along.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

The White House confirmed that Hegseth authorized a follow-up strike on drug boat from Venezuela in September. Trump and Hegseth previously denied it. Also Pentagon’s watchdog concluded that Hegseth risked endangering troops during the Signalgate crisis.

Comment: the Deep State is looking to undermine Hegseth in order to challenge Trump. Nothing out of the ordinary, just a battle for influence.

In the meantime the Pentagon said it struck another boat in the eastern Pacific, killing four people.

Comment: the US is still delaying its attack on Venezuela. Most probable explanation is that there are some negotiations taking place - for the US strikes are risky as there is high potential for a prolonged engagement. However I doubt a reasonable deal can be reached.

Trump proposed loosening fuel efficiency standard for American cars. The new policy would require car manufacturers to reach an average fuel efficiency of 34.5 miles per gallon, from the current 50.4, by 2031. Trump announced it surrounded by executives from top manufacturers.

Comment: amid the cold war between team west and team east, climate policies are the first and easiest ones to ditch.

SCOTUS will hear arguments next year on the legality of Trump’s attempt to end birthright citizenship. Lower courts blocked the executive order signed by the president.

Comment: this is a very interesting case. The 14th Amendment was introduced after the Civil War to allow slaves to get the US citizenship. Its current viability is questionable, especially in the context of immigration issues combined with “pregnancy tourism”. However I don’t think the executive order is the appropriate mechanism to cancel a constitutional amendment.

The Americas

In the recently published National Security Strategy, the Western Hemisphere took the prime spot.

Comment: The US is looking to deepen the collaboration with allied countries as well as “encourage” other countries to turn to US. I guess we are starting with Venezuela and Honduras, where Trump’s favorite won a close election.

Asia

Chinese fighter jets locked their targeting radars onto Japanese warplanes near Okinawa. Japan called it a dangerous act while China accused Japan of slandering and smearing.

Comment: tensions between the two countries remain high after Japan quasi-pledged to defend Taiwan in case of Chinese invasion. We are now in a funny situation as China wouldn’t really want to invade Taiwan now and Japan, coordinating with the US, is not really afraid of tough talk. Especially since Japanese army (and navy) is pretty decent. This whole situation is getting more and more interesting.

Middle East & Africa

Benin, with the help of Nigeria and France, managed to thwart a coup attempt. Earlier in the week soldiers took control of the state TV channel and claimed to have overthrown the president. They also announced the closing of the borders and suspending the constitution.

Comment: I was saying for quite some time now that Africa would be the next frontier of the cold war. I didn’t suspect it would start in 2025 though. However, this is just the beginning. We just saw the first resistance by team west, which should be followed by the push towards getting back some of the countries in team east’s sphere of influence. However, this time we might see Poland colonizing the continent (reference to the new National Security Strategy and recent comments from Hegseth on who is the good ally).

Hamas said it will return the body of a dead hostage to Israel, while Israel said it will open the Rafah crossing to allow thousands of Palestinians needing medical care to leave for Egypt.

Comment: this is part of the original ceasefire deal, showing that despite Israel’s tough posture, it is bending to fit the new US strategy, in which the Middle East is even less important than Europe.

Visa is coming to Syria, looking to boost recovery by partnering with the country’s central bank to develop a payment system.

Comment: in probably the most important development in the region in the past 2 years, Syria was first won by team west and is now being integrated into its system.

Europe

Americans were meeting with both Ukrainians and Russians this week. All the talks were tough, but constructive. The farce continues this week as Zelensky is poised to meet European leaders in London.

In the meantime European Commission is looking to use emergency powers to bypass the unanimity rule on the plan to use Russian frozen assets as collateral for Ukraine financing.

Comment: my wider thoughts on this peace effort are in my latest deep dive. What I can add here is that the main effort now is not the peace effort, but the financing effort by the European Commission - once financing is secured for Ukraine, we can forget about peace.

Putin met with Modi in India. Both leaders pledged closer cooperation on trade and energy, with Putin promising uninterrupted fuel shipments to India.

Comment: India is an important potential ally for the US, Russia and China. For now it chooses “strategic ambiguity”, but sooner or later it will have to choose either team east or team west. This visit though is a small victory for Russia, as it coincided with the new National Security Strategy mentioning India as important, strategic partner several times. In the long term the US might be the more natural choice however.

Peskov said that the new National Security Strategy was largely consistent with Russian vision. He especially meant its focus on European peace and not mentioning Russia as an enemy.

Comment: what can I say, with the current posture of European countries, Russia must be elated to see the US pulling out of the continent. I bet they would sing a different tune if Europe were not behaving like a pussy. But we can be pretty certain that most of Europe will fail to swiftly adjust to the new reality. I will do an article or a video on the whole topic of this strategy.

Macron visited China and met with Xi. They signed a few documents, but nothing substantial.

Comment: is Macron trying to see if France can move to team east? Not sure now, but the meeting didn’t go very well from what I see.

British government inquiry found that Putin authorized the attempted killing of Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, in Britain in 2018. Skripal survived the attack, but a British woman died.

Comment: Britain, somewhat soberly, starts a campaign that actively pictures Russia as bad to British citizens. Better late than never I guess, especially if they plan to engage more in the war.

Four people were arrested after apple crumble and custard were smeared on a display case containing Britain’s crown jewels at the Tower of London. Take Back Power claimed responsibility.

Comment: a new activist group that we are bound to hear more about has entered the conversation. Their aim - more power to the people vs the rich. As Europeans feel poorer and poorer due to inflation and cost of living crisis, we are bound to see more discontent from the common people.

Business, Finance & Economics

The price of copper reached a record high on the London market. Expected American tariffs triggered the rally.

Comment: the demand for energy will only go up and copper is one of the key elements to eg. expand the grid. It will be in high demand in the near future and this is probably only the first ATH we are witnessing.

Trump said he would nominate a new Fed chair early next year, after teasing Hassett for close to a week.

Comment: Trump is anxious to see the rates down. By playing the nomination game a bit longer, he is distracting the market, which seems to like the new choice.

After fining X, the European Commission opened an antitrust probe into Meta over its integration of Meta AI into WhatsApp.

Comment: the EU is furious with the US so it attempts to extract money out of American corporations.

Wrap up

And that’s all for today. Next up on the schedule are predictions for 2026 as well as something on the new National Security Strategy.

Stay strong and see you soon!

But they are so deeply biased by their own politics, that they fail to see the real game being played right in front of our eyes. And it’s not about peace or saving lives - it’s about priorities on the grand chessboard of the current Cold War.

So today I will show you:

1. Why the current peace effort is so bizarre.

2. What will come out of it.

3. When (or if?) we can expect peace.

What The Hell Is Going On?

In the last 2 weeks we’ve seen a very plausibly Russian 28-point peace plan being floated as American, Trump forcing it on Zelensky only to back down 2 days later, Rubio admitting to knowing nothing about it, only to backtrack on his words 2 days later. On top of that we have a leaked call between Witkoff and Ushakov where Witkoff coaches Ushakov on how to handle Trump. And this is only in the US.

In Europe we have a discussion about using Russian frozen assets to finance Ukraine. Same Russian assets that would be divided between the US and Russia in the 28-point peace plan. And in Ukraine we have the biggest corruption scandal in years that is costing Zelensky the majority (if not all) of his political capital - even Yermak was forced to resign to protect Zelensky.

Lastly, we had MBS visit to the White House, which funnily coincides with the first 28-point plan leak.

Who’s War Is It?

Let’s go back to 2022. We all now laugh when we remind ourselves of the 3-day special operation to conquer Ukraine. But many forget that Putin was close to making it. Initially his attack was a success. So much so that Zelensky felt he has no choice but to negotiate a surrender. But some NATO countries (especially the eastern flank) were smarter than that - they supplied Ukraine with equipment early on and pressured the rest to support the nation in distress.

And the culmination of that was Boris Johnson coming to Turkey to personally tell Zelensky not to sign the deal and keep on fighting with Western support. At this moment this war stopped being a Russian gambit to permanently influence Europe and became the first proxy war between the US (with team west) agains what I call team east (ie. China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and others).

It is an important distinction as it means that it is not “Ukrainian war” in a sense that Ukraine actually has little say in how it goes.

What Is Sovereignty?

I will have as many critics as applauders for the ending of the last paragraph. But the reality on the ground is simple:

1. Ukraine is toast without western intelligence and equipment.

2. Ukraine is toast without western financing.

3. In effect: Ukraine would take any deal it is given if any of the two disappear.

But it doesn’t mean Ukraine has zero sovereignty. Liberals did one thing right - everything is a spectrum. And on the spectrum of sovereignty Ukraine has its people.

Thus Zelensky’s main job was making sure that Ukrainian people are willing to fight while team west supplied everything that is needed for Ukraine to hold the ground. He did his job remarkably well, up until now. The corruption crisis is threatening to consume him as it now forced his second in command, Yermak, to resign.

However I don’t see it as a major issue - team west did prepare for it a long time ago by propping up Zaluzhny. The media turned him into a hero and then made a very public feud with Zelensky to create distance between the two. And now Zaluzhny lives in London as Ukrainian ambassador to Great Britain, where he follows developments closely ready to step in once Zelensky is finished.

So if this is a team west vs team east proxy war, then why do we hear about Ukraine not being able to accept the terms of the peace brought by the US, the leader of team west?

The answer is that team west is currently fighting its own internal war.

Nationalists vs Deep State

The Ukraine war was brought to you by the Deep State (ie. the administrative state), as part of the (then only starting to get shape) grand strategy to counter team east. However with Donald Trump in the White House we have an entirely different set of ideas on how to formulate a grand strategy.

MAGA wants to fix America first, then move on to save the world. The idea is that Americans won’t be able to take on the burden of the Cold War in the current state - with no national unity, low manufacturing capacity, drugs wrecking havoc in the society and neighbors doing whatever they want. Thus we have a new grand strategy:

1. Unite the people under a nationalist ideology to make them more immune to the burden they will need to carry.

2. Tariff the whole world to offset some of the costs of being a hegemon and see who is on team west (and will get lower tariffs) and who is looking more towards team east (and will get higher tariffs + sanctions).

3. Near-shore most industries according to tariff calculus.

4. Re-shore key industries (eg. semiconductors).

5. Fix the neighborhood (ie. western hemisphere) to solve migration issues and drugs.

As you see there is no point saying “fight proxy wars all over the globe”. Reason is that to do all of the above and at the same time be ready to counter China in the Indo-Pacific, the US cannot spare any military capacity.

Thus the conflict. The Deep State along with its European partners wants the war to continue as:

1. It is part of a wider plan to destroy Russia economically using Ukraine.

2. It is essential for European sovereignty, as with Russia being a key decision maker in European affairs, the whole block would slowly drift towards team east.

And the nationalists want it to end as they would rather use its financial and military capacity for their projects. The fix is being implemented as Europe is now building its war economy designed to sustain Ukrainian war effort. But it is expensive and time consuming.

Peace Attempts?

So why do we have peace attempts? Trump wants to boost his popularity by ending another war that many Americans are tired of. He is using the fact that Europe is still not ready to fully take it over to pressure it to take a bad deal.

The pressure won’t work if Europe is united, but it isn’t… So how can we describe this peace effort? This time we have a few variables that are different than the last time:

1. Pressure on Zelensky (NABU).

2. Gigantic financing gap in Ukraine’s budget.

3. Recent Russian gains on the ground.

4. Looming strikes on Venezuela.

5. MBS visit to the Washington.

Let Me Tell You A Story

MBS went to Washington for many reasons. But one of them was to discuss oil production capacity. It turned out that there is not enough capacity to fully offset Venezuelan oil disappearing for several months when the strikes on Venezuela begin.

The consequence is simple - as Venezuelan oil was exported mainly to China, China will have to find a new source of oil. And Russia can’t wait to fill the gap, additionally taking advantage of higher prices created by lower supply. You see, striking Venezuela is good from Russian perspective.

From European perspective though, it is a disaster. Amid Russian gains on the ground and Ukraine’s budget gap, giving Russia a financial boost now would risk a major breakthrough in the war. Europe has only one counter at the moment - seizing Russian assets and using them to finance Ukraine (giving it a financial boost it desperately needs). However, despite many attempts, there is a strong opposition to do it. Mainly from Brussels that is the main custodian of these assets.

Seeing that MBS can’t save the day and Europeans can’t agree on a path forward a faction inside Europe that is the most supportive of war leaked a 28-point peace plan. It is nothing else than a document created mainly by Russians that outlines their minimum demands in the current moment.

The aim of this document was to align Trump’s and Russian position ahead of Zelensky ousting due to the corruption scandal. I believe that Trump administration wanted to get rid of him and install a new leader that is more receptive to a somewhat bad peace deal.

By leaking it, the faction showed to the rest of the world - this is what we will get if we don’t start to cooperate soon. Rubio confirmed that it was the case to the Senators, but he was later forced to backtrack on it due said Senators spilling the beans.

But isn’t this story a bit too far fetched?

Is It?

I filled some gaps in the above. I might have missed some details that I’m not privy of. But the main idea driving the story is true and screaming at us - there are at least 2 factions in team west that are openly in conflict about the future of the Ukraine war.

One of them wants to see Russia fall while the other wants to see the war to end as soon as possible. Thus you might have a feeling that the Trump administration is cooperating with Putin - because it is! Not because Trump is a Russian agent or anything even remotely close - he just has a different grand strategy, focusing on the western hemisphere first, which of course is not exactly great for Europe.

So, Will We Have Peace Soon?

To answer this question we have to look at leverage. Trump (and Putin) succeed only if Europe fails to cooperate on financing for Ukraine. Trump also wins if he is able to topple Zelensky and install someone else than Zaluzhny.

For now it seems the corruption scandal will end at Yermak, who was sacrificed to protect Zelensky. It is not optimal and I expect Zaluzhny is now being prepared to take over just in case, but it holds for now.

Financing starts to become a major issue, however it os not as dire as presented in some sources. Ukrainian sources might be heavily biased, but they present a case with more than enough liquidity till the end of Q1 2026 at least. This is supported by the recent IMF loan extension, signaling that even without tapping Russian reserves Ukraine might be good for another several months on the financial front.

This essentially moots the current peace effort. Europe will manage to prop up the Ukrainian zombie state for a while. Russia is also holding pretty well and with Venezuela strikes looming, it is looking to do even better, at least financially. I won’t put here another 1,000 words on the state of Russia, you’re better off reading Ivan’s deep dive on the topic where he covers the state of the Russian economy, society and politics better than I could ever do.

If Not Soon, Then When?

There are only two solutions here:

1. Russia facing a serious collapse will scramble to negotiate peace.

2. Europe fails to prop up the Ukrainian zombie state at some point, giving Trump a path towards peace.

Putin sees this and thinks he is winning and has time. But he would be happy to lock in the gains through a temporary ceasefire. Source: Black Bird Group

Considering that Russian economy is in a vastly better state than Ukrainian, and the fact that it is propped up by Chinese and North Korean production, we should focus on the latter if we are considering peace before 2028. And here a Ukrainian writer for Al Jazeera summed it up perfectly:

He is right - Europe has no balls to conduct the second option at the moment and will continue with the third for the foreseeable future. But the time will come again when Trump will once again have enough leverage to try peace. And then we shall see if they have what it takes and make Ukraine a proper military state it is inevitably going to be. That would also be the time to install Zaluzhny.

Because if you look at the prospect of peace, what is left there? Population - gone. Industry - gone outside of military. Infrastructure - in ruin. It’s a sad picture. And it will wreck havoc on European states that are refocusing their economies on a long war.

When I think about signs of peace, it is basically Europe failing to cooperate on the key issues. For now, such failure is potentially manifesting itself upcoming spring.

Prediction Markets

Thus obviously I still hold my No on ceasefire till the end of the year:

My fair odds are 2/98, 2% I give are for a very unlikely Christmas truce, but looking at precedent even if it happens it probably won’t qualify.

I am also looking at end of Q1 market, but currently I don’t hold any positions there:

I plan to deploy my capital form end of year position towards it at the moment, but I’ll update you once it happens. Here I’d give 15/85 odds at the moment, with financial situation of Ukraine being key to moving them in either direction.

I am not currently thinking about derivatives or markets like this one:

Ukraine might as well sign a useless document that it agrees to some kind of peace. But it is detached from the actual odds of peace and thus pretty much impossible to predict.

Wrap up

And that’s all for today. I didn’t really plan to write out another Ukraine deep dive initially, but the level of absurd that was reached during this process forced me to clarify what is going on.

Jokes aside, outside of Ukraine we had a busy week (seems to be every week this year) between Epstein, MBS visit, Venezuela and tensions between China and Japan.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

MBS had a successful visit in the White House. And it is not because he secured a security agreement from the US and F-35s - he didn’t really as both need congressional approval. Additionally the latter, even if somehow approved, would take close to a decade.

The visit was a success, because it ended 7 years of American shunning due to MBS supposedly authorizing a killing of Jamal Khashoggi (a journalist) in 2018. It cost additional $400 billion in promised investments in America, but I guess it was worth it. Especially since the deal came with some chip sweetener.

Trump also signed a bill requiring the Justice Department to release all the Epstein files. With a not so minor caveat of being allowed to censor anything that might pose danger to national security. So don’t get surprised when the release turns out to be a nothingburger.

With a minor exclusion of Marjorie Taylor Greene who for now is the first and only victim of Epstein files. After a very public feud with Trump, she announced her resignation from the House. It’s unclear what pushed her to do it, but her posts do suggests she is extremely frustrated.

Lastly, Trump had a meeting with Mamdani, the NYC mayor-elect. Surprisingly the meeting went well for both sides, with Trump even allowing Mamdani to call him a fascist. I guess that’s what happens when two populists meet.

The Americas

We’ve seen talks with Maduro being floated throughout a week, however what we are seeing now is major airlines avoiding Venezuela’s airspace and new operations being floated by the US. I still expect action to happen past today as the designation of Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization takes effect. And if you are still green about what is happening there, read my article on the topic.

I was listening to yet another interview with Marina Corina Machado. A week deep into the Venezuela research, it still wasn’t clear to me if the US military will attack Venezuela. And then it hit me. I had the eureka moment I was waiting for, just as I heard the sentence you can read as the title to this article.

Asia

The feud between China and Japan continues after Japan announced it might defend Taiwan in case of Chinese aggression. Even live meeting between two countries’ officials failed to produce results as China filed an official complaint to the UN. It is surely interesting to see Japan being on the offensive, entering the Cold War 2.0 strongly on the American side.

Staying with Japan, it announced a $135 billion stimulus package of spending and tax cuts. The measure aims to boost Japanese economy and alleviate some inflation woes, however investors are worried as bond yields rose to the highest level since 2008 on the news.

Lastly in Asia, a special tribunal in Bangladesh sentenced ex-prime minister Sheikh Hasina to death for crimes against humanity. The sentencing was for her role in suppressing student-led protests last year, where at least 1,400 people were killed. These very protests led to Sheik’s government falling and her escape to India.

Middle East & Africa

Israel is continuing to stretch the definition of a word “cease” in ceasefire as we are now seeing almost daily strikes on both Gaza and Lebanon. Israel believes that both Hamas and Hezbollah are always the first ones violating the terms. In the latest big development, Israeli strikes killed at least 20 people in Gaza and Haytham Ali Tabatabai, a top military commander of Hezbollah, in a strike on Beirut.

Europe

As mentioned in the beginning, last week we had a lot of drama around Ukraine as a 28-point plan was leaked to the press. However it seems that the leak created a lot of confusion in the administration. Witkoff was seen commenting that the Russians leaked it. Rubio at some point denied the plan is American at all (only to walk it back later). Trump himself first pushed Zelensky to sign the memorandum by Thanksgiving, only to say it’s not a final offer a couple days later. There are signs that the leaked plan was prepared predominantly in Russian and hastily translated.

Anyway, the Europeans came out with their own version of a peace plan that diverged significantly from the 28-points. Then we learned that Ukrainians are meeting with the White House representatives (including Rubio and Witkoff) in Geneva. These talks are supposedly going pretty well, but it still remains to be seen if any sort of ceasefire can be achieved. The reality is that the maximalist positions of Ukraine + Europe and Russia are extremely far apart and neither side feels it is losing this war soon.

Outside of the war, the Dutch government suspended the emergency takeover of Nexperia, after China-US trade truce. The company is responsible for majority of the chips required for cars and the block of exports was a major issue for European car manufacturers.

After an incident on the railway tracks, where a bomb was set in a sabotage act to derail trains on a way connecting to Ukraine, Poland closed the last Russian consulate. Russia denies involvement.

Lastly, Turkey will host COP31 in 2026 after this year’s climate conference failed to produce any results. A mostly political PR move from Erdogan.

Business, Finance & Economics

The Fed is torn between cutting and holding the rates steady as the next FOMC meeting approaches. However some of the recent comments suggest we will see the Fed continue down the path of cutting, based on the Fed oracle’s analysis.

This comes even though the American economy added 119,000 jobs in September, showcasing a rather strong labor market. However the preferred metric of the Fed, the unemployment rate, jumped to 4.4%.

All the rate cut discussion is done while the stock and crypto market experiences the biggest drawdown in a while. Bitcoin is down to 86,200, plunging almost 22% in a month. Nasdaq is down over 4% in a month as investors get more and more worried about an AI bubble. And for the first time since the Liberation Day, the calls for a market bust are trending, with even Michael Burry joining the crowd.

And he might be right, as Target reported a bigger than expected drop in same store sales (3.8% y/y decrease). On top of that Klarna, offering buy now pay later financing, reported a loss of $95 million, down from $12 million in profit for the same period in 2024. The consumer does seem to be squeezed.

Wrap up

That’s all for this week. Seems like we are due another Ukraine deep dive as we are seeing renewed peace effort. I think I will mix it along with my first iteration of the forecast for 2026.

Other than that stay strong and see you soon!

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

The US government is open after long 43 days. However we might have a repeat in February as the funding bill guarantees funding to the end of January. Trump touted the signing as a major win as it seems that Democrats failed to push anything on their agenda. But bigger problems are looming.

Democrats on an American congressional committee released new Epstein documents. They suggest that Trump spent time in Epstein’s house with one of the victims. Other leaked emails claim that Trump “knew about the girls”. In a response, the justice department will investigate several Democrats, including Bill Clinton, for their alleged involvement with Epstein.

Additionally, after failing to convince some Republicans to vote against a release of all the files, he urged everyone to vote for it, claiming he has nothing to hide in the end. I think there is either a big fat nothing in the files, or so many people are implicated that the release will be stopped by other means.

Trump also threaten to sue BBC for $1 billion in damages if it did not retract a defamatory documentary related to 2021 Capitol riots. BBC apologized, however it doesn’t look to be enough for Trump as he is looking to make it his yet another campaign against “fake news media”.

And moving swiftly to the Americas, the US will designate Cartel de los Soles as a terrorist organization from November 24th. Combined with Trump’s claim that he might talk with Maduro, it seems to be the final ultimatum - surrender till November 24th or we will strike. Since Maduro can’t surrender thanks to Cuban caretakers in his vicinity, we could be hearing about the strikes by the end of November. Traders remain confused, which is most likely the aim:

The Americas

In protest at the US strikes on alleged drug trafficking boats, Colombia suspended intelligence sharing with America. I don’t think Colombia has a lot to offer in this department though. Colombia is most likely worried about a potential destabilization in the neighboring country as it already hosts millions of Venezuelan refugees.

More than 120 people (including 100 police officers) were injured during protests in Mexico City. Young activists organized a demonstration against the government of Claudia Sheinbaum as they believe she’s done too little to tackle cartels and violent crime.

We had a first round presidential election in Chile, where as expected José Antonio Kast will face Jeannette Jara. Right wing Kast is expected to decisively win against his communist opponent:

Asia

The week in Asia passed under the light of reigniting conflicts. First scare came as a vehicle exploded in Delhi, India. India went just short of accusing Pakistan and shortly after a suicide bomber killed 12 people and injured 27 in Islamabad, Pakistan. Pakistan was fast to blame Afghan militias, which are supported by India.

Somewhat of a symmetrical response might have saved us from the spark reigniting the conflict between 2 nuclear powers.

Staying for a bit with Pakistan, its parliament passed a constitutional amendment handing more power to Field Marshal Asim Munir, the de facto leader. Once the bill is approved by the president, it will grant Munir control over the navy and air force and lifelong immunity from criminal prosecution. The amendment also creates a court that will sit above the Supreme Court - a total consilidation of power.

Moving back to conflicts, Thailand suspended its ceasefire with Cambodia after two Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine near the contested border. We are yet to see more hostilities between the two countries, for now it seems that backdoor communications are ongoing to avoid the conflict.

Moving eastward, China advised its citizens to avoid travel to Japan and said Japan would face a crushing defeat if it tried to defend Taiwan. Warnings come as Takaichi Sanae suggested that Japan would consider an armed response if China invaded the island.

Lastly, Australia accused hackers linked to the Chinese government and army of targeting the country’s critical infrastructure like water, transport and telecoms networks. A cautionary tale of how fragile some key infrastructure is.

Middle East & Africa

Hooping Ahmed al-Sharaa signed Syria up to the American led anti-Islamic State coalition. The new president is trying hard to build good alliances with key actors like the US and Turkey in an effort to control and rebuild the country.

Iran seized an oil tanker, the Cypriot owned Talara flagged in the Marshall Islands. It was sailing from the UAE to Singapore. Iran claims that its cargo was unauthorized, justifying the first seize in over a year.

Lastly, the Democratic Republic of Congo and M23, a rebel group backed by Rwanda, signed a framework peace agreement in Doha. Back in June, Congo and Rwanda also signed a peace accord in Washington.

Europe

Ukraine has now a corruption scandal. The anti corruption bureau launched a probe into a $100 million kickback scheme in the energy sectors. Senior government officials and a businessman linked to Zelensky are under scrutiny. However most managed to get out of Ukraine in time. Maybe the brief takeover of the bureau by Zelensky a few months back were aimed to get insight into the investigation and prepare in advance. Suspensions followed.

At the same time Zelensky announced a new gas deal with Greece to compensate for production lost to Russian attacks. Between the corruption scandal related to energy sector and Russia strikes on energy facilities, it’s a nugget of good news for Ukrainians bracing for a difficult winter.

Vladimir Putin will let Citigroup sell its Russian business to Renaissance Capital, a Russian investment bank. The sales comes as the EU is thinking about using Russian frozen assets to finance Ukraine war.

In a rare good news from the Europarliament, the MEPs voted to scale back ESG rules so 90% of companies operating currently under the framework will no longer need to comply. Interestingly, it was backed by a combination of conservative and right-wing parties.

As Labor Party struggles to formulate a budget, Shabana Mahmoodis looking to cut aid to asylum seekers, including an end to guaranteed housing, end to financial support for those able to work or with means. It also shortens asylum time to 30 months, from 60. Labor is trying to retain power as both voters continue to flip towards Reform and Starmer is less and less popular, even amid his party peers.

Lastly, Nicolas Sarkozy was released from prison after serving 20 days of his 5 year sentence. He will await the verdict of his appeal from home.

Business, Finance & Economics

Financial markets are bleeding as Nasdaq declined over 2% at the end of the week, dragged by Nvidia. Crypto is bleeding as well with BTC now below $100,000. All while it increasingly looks like the Fed might not lower rates at the next meeting. Speaking of the Fed, it looks like we are not getting unemployment data.

In China, Baidu unveiled new AI chips, to be released in 2026 and 2027 in a move to stop reliance on western chip designs. Additionally it revealed a new LLM Ernie 5.0, supposedly on par with GPT-5.

Blue Origin successfully launched its New Glenn rocket and caught its booster for the first time. Bezos is trying to catch up with Musk in a new space race.

Tariffs

Trump exempted several foodstuffs from tariffs (including beef and coffee). As we had the tariffs with us for a few months now, the first cracks start to appear. Now it’s time for phase 2 - subsidies and exemptions.

But for the good news, Rolex watch will be a bit cheaper as Switzerland reached a deal with the US to lower tariffs from 39% to 15%. Some gifts were involved

Wrap up

And that’s all for the week. As we are awaiting action in Venezuela, I will be on the lookout for new situations and deep dive topics.

Stay strong and see you soon!

After a very busy October, the world somehow took a step back with the new US-China deal. However I have an eerie sense of it being the calm before the storm.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

After a tense meeting, it appears that the US and China took a step back from their trade war. Recent rare earth restrictions were lifted and the for the April ones the US companies were granted licenses. Additionally the port fees are postponed on both sides, China promised to buy some soybeans and crack down on fentanyl, while the US reduced the China tariff rate from 57% to 47%. The measures are supposed to last a year

Overall, I don’t expect them to hold. It’s a temporary halt as both countries are managing the turbulences associated with a trade war. Once the dust settles, we can expect both sides to resume, especially since China is known (and culturally conditioned) to not accept any deal arrangements at face value.

Trump also instructed the Department of War to immediately start nuclear weapon testing. However, the markets are not taking the urgency at face value and remain convinced that we will not see any nuclear weapon detonation this year:

Pete Hegseth announced another 3 strikes on 4 vessels in the eastern Pacific. It’s the latest escalation in Trump’s war on drugs, and the first one targeting vessels on the Pacific.

For now though it appears that strikes on boats are the maximum Trump is willing to go. After a piece in the Miami Herald that an attack on Venezuela is imminent, Trump contradicted the statementBe it strategic ambiguity or a conflict in DC, the effect is that traders are split on the possibility of US strike on Venezuela:

Lastly, the US government shutdown continues into the second month with no end in sight. Starting this week, the SNAP payments are affected, risking millions of Americans will not be able to redeem their food stamps. Traders are looking for 2 more weeks at least before we see the end of the current drama:

The Americas

Besides the drama around Venezuela, we had a police raid in Rio de Janeiro where around 2,500 officers were deployed in the biggest anti-cartel operation to date in the city. There were gunshots in the streets and ultimately 64 people were killed. At least 50 of them were suspected of being criminals - not a reassuring figure if you ask me.

Up north Hurricane Melissa made a landfall in Jamaica and later Cuba. The Category 5 storm brought winds of almost 300 km/h making it one of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic. It wrecked havoc.

In a (probably) humiliating experience, Mark Carney apologized to Trump for an anti-tariff ad that had offended him. He also asked Doug Ford, Ontario premier, not to run the ad. The trade negotiations however are not back on.

Asia

After the temporary truce with the US, Xi went on a little PR campaign, positioning China as the protector of the global free trade. In the meantime China factory output slumped in October (although it is still positive), but who would believe Chinese economic data anyway?

In Japan, a startup called JPYC issued a first yen stablecoin in a move to digitalize the country’s economy.

Middle East & Africa

In the Middle East we were back to the original programing as Netanyahu ordered IDF to carry out strikes on the Gaza Strip. He accused Hamas of violating the ceasefire by handing over the wrong remains of a hostage. In effect Israel launched air attacks on Gaza City, killing at least 100 people, after which Netanyahu decided that the ceasefire can be sustained. It’s nothing more but muscle flexing aimed at establishing dominance.

But this time the real massacre was done in Africa. Rapid Support Forces, paramilitary group in Sudan fighting the government, seized control of El-Fasher, Darfur region main city and proceeded to kill hundreds (or even thousands) of civilians. Scenes from the city were inhumane and the effects were visible even on satellite photos.

Down south, we had another fake African election in Tanzania, where the incumbent Samia Suluhu Hassan was reelected with 98% of the vote after running against no serious opposition. Hundreds are reported to be dead after days of protests while internet blackout and curfew are in place.

Moving west, Trump got interested in Nigeria, which he threatened by suggesting to stop all the aid and even sending troops, unless the government took action to stop islamic terrorists killing christians. The Nigerian spokesman told Reuters that the country would welcome America’s help in combating jihadist terrorism, but only if the superpower respected the country’s “territorial integrity”.

Europe

Russia successfully tested 2 new weapons - a Burevestnik nuclear powered cruise missile and Poseidon, a nuclear powered, underwater drone capable of a speed of 185 km/h and 10,000 km range. Both tests were done mainly to intimidate the west and show to the world that Russia is still at the forefront of military innovation.

Lukoil is looking to sell its international operations following the American sanctions. However, the sanctions are not expected to limit Russia’s ability to sell oil.

After being denied F-35 plane and advanced parts, Turkey signed a deal with Britain to buy 20 Eurofighter Typhoon jets. While a tad below state of the art capability, it’s a move upwards in terms of technological advancement for the Turkish air force.

France continues to be embroiled in a budget crisis after its lower house voted down a wealth tax on the ultra-rich. Part of the Socialist’s demands to approve the budget, the situation is once again fragile for Sébastien Lecornu.

Lastly, Prince Andrew lost his prince title after the publication of a posthumous book by Virginia Giuffre. Andrew was long accused of sexual abuse, but now the situation is completely in the open and the crown had probably no choice. He is also expected to lose his military title of Vice Admiral. While he will be removed from the public eye, expect the royal family to take care of him.

Business, Finance & Economics

Powell once again lowered interest rates by 25 bps to between 3.75% and 4%. However he suggested that the next cut is not guaranteed. In my opinion a lot will depend on the government shutdown ending before the next FOMC meeting. In the meantime the ECB left the rates steady at 2%.

Amazon was initially rumored to reduce it’s white-collar workforce by up to 30,000 (around 10%) according to Reuters. Later Beth Galetti issued a statement claiming 14,000 jobs will be cut due to efficiency gains from using AI (however they have a really cute explanation to avoid saying that). Fake jobs are disappearing.

Qualcomm unveiled 2 new AI chips in a move to enter the lucrative market. They are set to launch in 2026 and 2027 - Qualcomm shares have risen by 12% since the news.

Lastly, OpenAI reached a deal with Microsoft to change its ownership structure. The move opens up the possibility to become a for-profit entity and do an IPO further down the line.

Wrap up

And that is all for the week. In the next 2-3 days I will publish my thesis on Venezuela.

Stay strong and see you soon!

This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.

• Trump and Xi meet tomorrow in Busan - first in-person talks since Trump's return to office, with markets highly sensitive to outcomes

• Trade deal optimism surging - 70% chance of US-China tariff agreement by end of October, 94% by November 10th

• Markets pricing in a rally - S&P odds for 7,000+ jumped from 40% to 85% in one week; Nasdaq-100 bullishness up to 84% of reaching record highs of 24,500

• Rare earths remain key sticking point - China's export ban still unresolved, but recent positive signals (soybean purchases, fentanyl cooperation) suggest thawing tensions

• Signs point to market rally - Both leaders face pressure to show progress; futures may rip overnight as talks begin

Market Snapshots

US - China Trade

• Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? (Polymarket)

• US x China tariff agreement by November 10? (Polymarket)

• Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October? (Polymarket)

• Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? (Polymarket)

• What will the U.S. tariff rate on China be on January 1, 2026? (Kalshi)

Stock Market

• S&P close price end of 2025? (Kalshi)

• Nasdaq-100 price end of 2025? (Kalshi)

• How high will the S&P get this year? (Kalshi)

Trump's Approval

• The President's RCP approval rating on Friday? (Kalshi)

• Will Trump's approval rating increase this week? (Kalshi)

Event Breakdown

Decoding market signals as Trump and Xi prepare for crucial trade negotiations: Tomorrow’s the big day. Trump and Xi are set to meet in Busan, South Korea. This is the first in-person meeting between the leaders since Trump’s return to office in January.

Talks will center upon tariffs and trade balances, rare earths, fentanyl trafficking, TikTok, and tech exports, specifically Nvidia chips.

Here are some of the top overnight headlines:

• Trump expects to lower fentanyl-linked tariffs on China

• Trump announced a trade breakthrough with South Korea, perhaps increasing leverage going into talks with Xi

• China has purchased 180,000 tons of US soybeans - the first major order in months - signaling progress and a potential easing in trade tensions

Over the last few weeks we’ve discussed the approaching trade war tipping point and the implications for markets. Now let’s tie it altogether.

Outcomes from tomorrow’s talks will unequivocally impact the stock market. This is abundantly clear from what transpired on Liberation Day in addition to Xi’s recent rare earths export ban and Trump’s 100% tariff threat response. Now the question is will markets puke or will they rally tomorrow?

US-China Trade

Prediction markets have become increasingly optimistic a deal will get done in the coming weeks.

There’s now a 70% chance (and climbing) that the US and China reach a tariff agreement before the end of the month.

It’s even more likely (94% chance) an agreement is reached by November 10th.

These are certainly positive signs for markets. However, a critical point of tension right now centers upon China’s rare earths export ban. Two weeks ago we had difficulty reconciling how a tariff agreement could get done without some relaxation on the rare earths export ban.

Well, it finally seems as though those odds are finally increasing.

These are all positive signs for markets, but one has to wonder if an agreement is reached what will the tariff rate ultimately be? Markets are still anticipating a tariff rate between 30% and 40% as they were two weeks ago. 

That said, there has been a slight 4% uptick in the probability of rates coming in lower between 20%-30% (24%). In either scenario, prediction markets anticipate much lower than the 100% threat Trump made two and a half weeks ago.

Again, this is all seemingly good news for markets. Let’s drill into what prediction markets are saying on that front.

Will the Stock Market Puke or Rip?

Last week we did a deep dive into stock market forecasts and the bullish indicators present amidst historic economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Since then the bullishness has only continued.

In the last few days we’ve seen an increase in the likelihood of the S&P closing at record highs between 7,000-7,200 (27%) and 7,200-7,399 (19%).

Odds centered upon “How high will the S&P get this year” have also increased in recent days. Odds now for “7,000 or above” sit at 85% (up from 40% a week ago) while odds for “7,500 or above” are now at 24% (up from 4% a week ago). Those are big jumps for markets with decent volume (~$116K total).

The bullishness doesn’t stop there. The Nasdaq-100 is increasingly trending towards record highs above 24,500 (currently at 84%, up from 67% a week ago).

That’s a significant increase in bullishness from our writings a week ago which aligns with the softening of rhetoric between the world’s global superpowers.

Trump’s Approval Rating

The state of the economy always plays a significant role in politics and election outcomes. 

Is there anything to be gleaned from markets concerning Trump’s approval rating when it comes to tomorrow’s trade talks and their potential impact on the stock market?

Trump’s current approval rating according to Real Clear Politics is 45.1%. 

Over the last 24-48 hours it is looking more likely his approval rating will decrease to between 44.6%-45% (now up to 45% from 28% a week ago). At the same time, his odds of maintaining an approval rating between 45.1% and 45.5% have decreased to 47% from 53% just two days ago).

It is ultimately looking increasingly likely that Trump’s approval rating will decrease this week.

What should we make of this? 

There’s optimism around a US-China trade deal getting done that will reduce economic and geopolitical uncertainty and in turn help propel markets. In spite of that, Trump’s approval rating is likely to trend downwards.

This divergence is interesting. These markets are not directly correlated of course, but it leads one to believe Trump’s domestic policy efforts may currently be dragging down his approval in spite of optimism on the global trade front.

So, back to our original question, will the market rip or puke tomorrow?

Signs Point to Stock Market Rally

Tomorrow is an important day for traders and investors. We will learn more about the future of the US-China trade relationship which will have far reaching impacts on the global economy.

As of now, all signs point to a thawing in tensions as means to pragmatically strike a deal. Both leaders recognize the stakes are incredibly high. It is important for them to return to their respective countries and report back to their citizens that progress is being made. 

It is not the time for gamesmanship or last ditch efforts to increase leverage. There is pressure on both Trump and Xi to show the world steps forward are being taken. Each leader faces far more downside if the current trade impasse persists.

Markets seem to be sniffing this out in the short-term. Bullish sentiment has ramped up over the last few days as the Trump-Xi meeting approaches, intimating the market too believes strides will be made during tomorrow’s talks.

At this point we’re in “wait and see” mode, but don’t be shocked if futures rip overnight as the talks kick off at 11a Korea Standard Time.

Related markets & forecasts:

• Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China? (Kalshi)

• Will the S&P finish positive this year? (Kalshi)

• How low will the S&P get this year? (Kalshi)

• Which countries will the US enact a trade deal with this year?

• Which countries will impose tariffs on the US this year?

• Will Trump launch tariffs on copper?

• Trump approval rating on December 31? (Polymarket)

• The President's RCP approval rating on Jan 1, 2026? (Kalshi)

Questions we asked

Follow the Adjacent community on Metaculus here!

• Who will Trump nominate as next Fed Chair?

• What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?

• Will the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes exceed 5% for at least one month in 2025?

• U.S. real GDP growth in 2025?

• Will China and the EU Reach a Trade or Tariff Agreement in 2025

Apart from being volatile, 2025 definitely took the weekends away - seems like we have geopolitical news on a daily basis.

Weekly Outlook

US Inc.

We are starting with Venezuela, where the USS Gerald R. Ford will be deployed. Per the Trump admin, the world’s largest aircraft carrier is sent there to counter narco-terrorism. However, that’s not the whole story. Drugs are a second order effect from China having control over the country. Venezuela serves as sort of a base for Chinese actions on the Western Hemisphere. The real aim of the build-up is to eliminate Maduro.

Thus all the strikes on drug carrying boats are nothing more than an act as they will not result in less fentanyl being available in America. The real action is ahead.

A similar thing can be said about sanctions on Gustavo Pedro. While Colombia is officially a US ally, it has been criticizing the recent build-up of military force. The sanctions are less about drugs and more about keeping the Colombia’s president in line.

While we are awaiting the Trump-Xi meeting and the future of the trade war, America and Australia agreed to invest $3 billion in critical minerals projects over then next 6 months. While it may sound as all the problems regarding rare earths are solved, there is quite a long lag between investment and actual production.

In the meantime, the US government shutdown continues, passing the 1996 one for the second longest shutdown ever. Lawmakers are nowhere near a compromise and Trump along with Republicans continues to move existing funds around to fund Republican-aligned causes, costing Democrats. Trades are taking this into account, now projecting that we will see over 35-day long shutdown, breaching the current record (under Trump 1):

Trump is currently on an Asian round-trip, visiting Malaysia for the ASEAN summit, Japan and South Korea where he is supposed to meet with Xi. We are bound to see some funny videos and maybe some important statements.

Lastly, Trump pardoned Changpeng Zhao, the co-founder of Binance. In return, CZ vowed to make America the capital of crypto, suggesting that there are wider plans behind this pardon.

The Americas

Petrobras, a Brazilian oil giant is set to begin drilling an exploratory well in the Amazon basin. You can’t make up this convenient timing. Just as Venezuela is looking to be attacked, it’s oil exports no longer easily accessible to either Iran or China, the anti-US bloc potentially finds another source of oil in another LatAm ally.

While the US struggles to control Brazil and Venezuela, it managed to hold on to Argentina. After promising the $20 billion currency swap as well as future assistance contingent on Milei’s party victory in the midterm election, exactly that happened. We might also learn this week if Argentina will be selling soybeans to China.

Asia

Just before the highly anticipated Trump-Xi meeting, Scott Bessent informed that America and China have agreed on a positive framework for trade talks between the two leaders. While Bessent was very optimistic, suggesting that China would delay introducing a rare earth embargo as well as buy American soybeans (looking at Argentina and Brazil), the Chinese side was more restrained in the official address and mentioned neither. I don’t expect China to fold easily. Also traders don’t expect any of the previous measures to be lifted:

I personally think it is just one chapter in a bigger scheme.

Takaichi Sanae became Japan’s first female prime minister. She is looking at favorable ratings as well as a strong start as after her diplomatic debut at ASEAN, she is set to meet with Trump.

Speaking of ASEAN, Trump took part in the official signing of a peace deal between Cambodia and Thailand. Trump also signed trade deals with both countries as well as a deal with Malaysia on trade and critical minerals, complementing the deal with Australia.

In Thailand, Queen Sirikit, the mother of Thailand’s King Vajiralongkorn, died on Friday, aged 93. She’s been very popular in Thailand, even as she receded from the public life after a stroke in 2012. The country is in mourning now.

Middle East & Africa

JD Vance visited Israel last week, in an effort to facilitate the ceasefire deal and hope to move it to the next phase. However, just as he was there the Knesset voted to annex the West Bank which made the Trump administration furious. Don’t doubt it though, it will happen eventually.

But when it comes to the future of the ceasefire, Netanyahu said that Israel will decide on the make-up of any international security force in Gaza, making it a de facto Israel-controlled force. Well, I said so. Additionally Rubio said that several countries have already volunteered troops, probably in hopes to gain some value from the future of Gaza.

In Sudan, Rapid Support Forces, a rebel militia, took over the army headquarters in el-Fasher in the region of Darfur after an 18-month siege. It’s the government’s last remaining base in the west of the country, making it realistic for RSF to consolidate its control in the region and break up Sudan.

Europe

Trump did yet another switcheroo, claiming that Ukraine has now shot to win the war with Russia, in a dire attempt to salvage the talks with Putin. It didn’t succeed as Europe is not ready to make any concessions so the talks are now postponed indefinitely.

Additionally, European officials claim that there is progress towards a deal that would allow using frozen Russian assets to fund the Ukraine war.

Europeans are also apparently close to reach a shaky consensus to sign an interim deal with Mercosur, a LatAm trading bloc. The deal would open European market for South American agricultural products, posing risk to countries like France or Poland (while being beneficial to Germany, which could sell it’s vehicles there without tariffs). The matter is still being contested though and there is plenty that could happen between now and December 5th, when the signing is planned to happen - eg. a difficult European Parliament vote.

And while the US and China are amid a cold war, China became Germany’s top trading partner. Interesting, since German producers lack access to critical minerals (thanks to Chinese embargo) while simultaneously facing high tariffs from America on cars and machinery, its main export product. However, it seems that Germany’s manufacturing and services sectors expanded in October, according to a flash estimate of S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index (from 52 to 53.8).

Business, Finance & Economics

Oil prices rose 5% after Trump announced sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil (two largest Russian oil companies) and the EU announced new sanctions on Russian energy sector. However this one analyst I’m reading claims that sanctions have little to do with this price movement.

PrimaLend Capital Partners filed for bankruptcy after missing interest payment on its debt. The sub-prime lender focusing on cars will now try to sell its business in bankruptcy courts. This comes as car loan defaults are on the rise and after two other companies (First Brands and Tricolor) also went bust.

OpenAI launched an AI web browser ChatGPT Atlas, after Google incorporated Gemini into Chrome. I’m not sure what’s the buzz all about as I still didn’t check it out, but I’m happy for one of you to tell me.

Tariffs

Outside of US-China trade war, there was also news around Canada. Trump ended trade talks with the country because of an advertising campaign launched by Ontario, that featured Ronald Raegan speaking negatively about tariffs. Trump also decided to up the tariff on Canada by 10%.

Wrap up

That’s all for today. I am awaiting news around US-China trade war while researching Venezuela and finishing up the post mortem on Gaza.

I’m still thinking about the topic for the next deep dive. So in the meantime stay strong and see you soon!