4.20.2026 - Special Edition: War
Good morning! We really hope this is the last week of this special edition as the US and Iranian delegations are due to meet in Islamabad today or tomorrow. It's been almost 2 months since the start of the war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and while the economic consequences of this conflict will be felt by us for months, there is still a chance to avoid a global depression.
In our hopes, let's see what prediction markets think ahead of the next (final?) round of US x Iran negotiations.
Iran Tracker
#1 Peace
After initial excitement over Friday's posts by Trump, traders updated their short term expectations of a permanent peace to 33%.
However, longer term expectations are still saying a deal is more likely than not. Additionally, ahead of the tense talks, whales and sharp traders are positioned on the Yes side for both short and long term.
With emotions running high though, traders significantly increased their expectations of the end of the ceasefire, currently sitting at 23%:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
After Friday's bullish announcements by Trump, expectations of traffic normalization in the Strait of Hormuz increased sharply. However, soon after, IRGC announced renewed closure of the strait due to the ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports.
Traders also remain cautious in their forecast of single day transits, with 20+ boats sitting at 74%, unchanged since last week.
Energy prices, on the other hand, indicate the conflict might resolve soon with WTI well below $100 per barrel:
#3 Boots On The Ground
Outside of the small volatility observed on Friday, US invasion chances remained flat over the week, currently sitting at 34%.
Traders remain cautious amid the current escalatory rhetoric as they can be part of the negotiations. Persians are famously fierce negotiators and wild threats are for them just part of the bargaining process. We shall know more soon.
#4 Regional Expansion
Chances of regional expansion of the conflict remain at their lowest level, with only 7% and 5% chances for UAE and Saudi Arabia involvement.
With overall expectations of renewed hostilities being low, the Gulf countries are not looking to re-escalate the conflict without a specific US ask.
Similarly, despite some threats, a closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait remains a remote possibility:
#5 Iran Regime Fall
Iran regime fall chances are lower than last week as another round of talks approaches.
Even with apparent leadership clash in Iran, the regime is expected to remain strong, with only internal fights possible that wouldn't change the overall structure of the regime.
Wrap up
We are awaiting this week's talks with high expectations. Partly hope and partly prudent analysis, we do have this view as the alternative of renewed fighting and global depression are hard to imagine.
We will continue to monitor the situation as the next hours and days will be crucial.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. This are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.