Good morning! After a trip-induced break we are back to regular programing with our Morning Briefs!
A lot has happened in the last 12 days, but some things stay the same, eg. the Strait of Hormuz. However, outside of the Iran war chaos, we have quite a few big moves on the market to report.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. Even with the MoU in, the traffic failed to pick up.
Traders see only 44% chance it will by the end of July, suggesting that the MoU will fail miserably. This runs against the conventional analysis as oil is trading significantly lower, expecting the strait to gradually open up in the next weeks:
I think we already know who is correct.
#2 Starmer Is Out
After a months-long saga, Keir Starmer has finally resigned from office. Traders have been expecting that since late last year.
Prices on the markets were extremely volatile in the last months as we had several events that suggested Starmer’s end is near. But it was the Makerfield by-election, won by Andy Burnham that finally tipped the scales. Andy is now expected to be the next PM:
#3 A New President Of Colombia
Abelardo de la Espriella won Colombia presidential election, in line with traders’ expectations.
After he unexpectedly won the first round, traders had little doubt he will win the run-off, giving him 90% to win. However, the final results were very close, with the initial count giving him 49.7% of the vote vs 48.7% for Ivan Castro.
That being said, Trump must be happy now since Abelardo is a fellow right-winger that is taking power away from the left-wing.
#4 The Romanian Drama
It’s been almost two weeks since we last reported on the Romania PM market and we are still in the dark.
It’s ben one of the most volatile markets on the platform as reporting is scarce. Traders now give 53% chance Adrian Vestea will be the next PM. Previously, he was not even considered as a viable candidate.
Vestea was nominated by the president, however he seems to lack the majority required to confirm his government. We can expect more Romanian drama this week.
#5 The First World Cup Upset
Uruguay vs Cabo Verde game today ended in a draw, prepping us for the first big upset of the World Cup.
Traders expected Uruguay to easily qualify to the knockout stage, however two draws in the first two games pushed the group stage elimination chances from 14% to 65%.
So far it has been a very interesting World Cup. How is your team doing? Let us know in the comments!
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.