Good morning! Today all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz. On the one hand the traffic is picking up. On the other hand, IRGC is issuing statements that threaten the vessels using the Omani corridor, creating a lot of confusion on the markets.
Outside of the Iran war, we have a small update on the midterms. On the markets, we are tracking Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting, Claude Fable availability and the most volatile moves in the World Cup.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!
The Midterms Tracker
RED
RED is flat since yesterday. After the NYC primary there were barely any moves on the market as we are waiting for the next primaries to move the market.
Next up is the Louisiana Senate primary on the weekend, where traders are not expecting any shockers.
Senate
With RED flat, so is the SENR. Last day did not bring any news when it comes to Senate races.
House
Same can be said about HOUSER, which is also flat on the day. On the 30th of July we have the Colorado House primary. However, traders are not expecting any major moves there. If anything happens, we will update you as HOUSER moves.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
Traders are updating their Strait of Hormuz traffic forecast after a surge in traffic has been reported.
However, there is a lot of confusion as IRGC continues to issue warnings to vessels trying to cross the strait through the Omani path announced by IMO.
The next few days will be crucial for the stranded vessels.
#2 Israel Is Not Withdrawing
The market on Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon has been extremely volatile recently.
Even today, we heard the news that Israel has supposedly agreed to withdraw from parts of Southern Lebanon, only to see them deny it minutes later.
Traders now see only 14% chance the withdrawal will happen by the end of September.
#3 Russia x Ukraine Diplomatic Meeting
The market on Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting has spiked recently after Putin announced he’s ready for talks based on the Istanbul Agreement:
Traders have already had the meeting by the end of September as likely with 62% chances of happening. Now the Yes price jumped to 74c, indicating that traders see both sides becoming more agreeable.
#4 Claude Fable Restored Soon?
The market on Claude Fable access being restored is spiking on the rumors that an amended version might become available soon.
Traders are following early signals suggesting that Anthropic is working on restoring Fable access to US customers. However, for now we lack any official confirmation. Are traders front-running the news? Or is this just an unconfirmed rumor and soon the market will reverse course? We will find out soon.
#5 Scotland To Go Home
After losing to Brazil, Scotland is now expected to be eliminated in the group stage.
Initially, trades gave only 25% chance it will happen, but a subpar performance from the team makes it now virtually certain that it will exit the tournament early.
World Cup markets are extremely volatile as plenty of upsets and surprises happen on such an event. Is you team still in the game? Let us know in the comments!
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.