Good morning! The news of the day is the NYC rent freeze for over 1 million apartments. Mamdani has kept his campaign promise, while plenty of traders made and lost big money after the market moved from the low 30s to the high 80s.
Outside of the Big Apple, w continue to monitor the Strait of Hormuz situation, as well as global developments across North Korea and Romania. On top of that, OpenAI shocked some investors that were hoping for an imminent IPO.
Lastly, we have a small update on the midterms.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!
The Midterms Tracker
RED
RED remains flat as we enter the weekend. Traders are waiting for the next global developments as well as economic data dump to adjust their forecast.
Senate
SENR went up by one point as traders are recalibrating their forecasts ahead of the weekend.
However, there was no specific race that caused the move. It is rather an effect of a slight forecast recalibration in favor of Republicans across every senate race.
House
HOUSER is also flat on the day. Based on the index movement in the last month, Republicans are in a massive disadvantage in the House races. It will be almost impossible to bridge the gap at this point.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz sees an uptick in traffic, however not without some difficulties. The IRGC has struck a vessel off the coast of Oman yesterday in an effort to close the IMO corridor.
IMO, in cooperation with Oman and the US announced an operation to rescue stranded vessels. However, the IRGC insists that any ship crossing the strait must do it through IRGC-approved ways only. Traders still see more optimism about traffic normalization, but there’s still only 41% chance we will see the 7-day moving average of daily transits above 60 vessels.
Energy is still down, hoping to see a swift end of the SOH problems:
#2 North Korea Launches More Missiles
Traders were not expecting any action from North Korea with only 5 days left till the end of the month.
However, Kim Jong-un is testing new missiles and sent one up just a few hours ago. It’s always risky to bond such markets. This time the long-shot seekers got their reward.
#3 No PM In Romania
Nicusor Dan cannot be blamed for lack of trying. He proposed several candidates for prime minister, but none managed to get enough votes in the parliament to for a government.
Traders in doubt that any of the previous frontrunners has a shot at the top job as analysts predict that the impasse might last until fall. Sorin Grindeanu, who only two days ago was a clear favorite, now has only 32% chance to be the next PM, and the price is falling drastically as I write this article.
#4 Rent Freeze In NYC
The controversial rent freeze proposal has passed in New York. One of Mamdani’s campaign promises awaits final implementation by the board as the Yes price on the market surged from 31% to 85%.
Traders have little doubt the implementation will succeed. The only risk is landlords trying to sue the city, but best they can do is delay the measure.
#5 No OpenAI IPO This Year
Chances of an OpenAI IPO this year fell dramatically after the news broke out that the company might wait till 2027 after a volatile SpaceX IPO.
Only 2 weeks ago, the market was trading in the 70s for an IPO by the end of the year. However, a series of delays, as well as the new rumor pushed the Yes price down to 24c. Retail investors surely aren’t happy about this one.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.