Good morning! It’s been a rather quiet day. The Strait of Hormuz is still in a state of chaos. However, there are some developments in the US.
Today, outside of a small midterms update, we are covering the new Secretary of Labor and a surprise SOCTUS ruling. Outside of the US, Maria Corina Machado is making waves as some expect her to go to Venezuela soon.
Lastly, we have a small surprise in the World Cup market.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!
The Midterms Tracker
RED
RED is mostly flat on the day, maintaining its level around 90 points. There was no news that had any potential to move the index and Republicans are still the underdogs as we approach the midterms.
Something might change as today there is a primary in Colorado:
As a reminder, index value at 100 indicates an even split in Republican and Democratic chances of taking control in the future elections.
Senate
SENR is flat on the day, still hovering around 99.5 points. After today’s primary we will have a good understanding of how Senate odds changed after another state has its candidates locked.
House
House is also flat on the day. However, with index value at 75.5 points, there’s little that can happen to change the outcome. Democrats are massive favorites to win the House.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
The situation around the Strait of Hormuz continues to be volatile. After the initial euphoria around the Omani corridor, prices on the market are down to their lows.
Traders now see only 38% chance we will see traffic normalization by the end of July. At the same time main energy benchmarks are trading as if the strait was open:
However, some oil analyst point to some anomalies on the product market that in their opinion could push the WTI and Brent price significantly higher in the short term:
Considering the prediction market pricing, they are surely onto something.
#2 New Secretary of Labor
Trump announced Keith Sonderling as the next Secretary of Labor.
It was hardly a shock to traders that priced him at over 50% chance to get the position. He is the former deputy that has been the acting Secretary of Labor ever since his predecessor resigned.
#3 SCOTUS With A Surprise Ruling
SCOTUS surprised traders by ruling against barring states from counting mail ballots after election day.
It’s a blow to the Republicans, who spent years saying that late ballots are essentially Democrats rigging elections. Come midterms, we are bound to hear this narrative again. However, this time, there’s nothing Republicans can do, outside of outright banning mail-in ballots.
#4 Rumors Around Maria Corina Machado
The market on Maria Corina Machado to enter Venezuela by the end of July has been volatile lately.
Traders have been trying to update their forecast ever since Machado announced that she was looking to enter Venezuela to help in the post-quake crisis. However, there are plenty of problems to resolve: from the high chance she will be arrested once she enters the country to the fact that the Trump admin will do quite a lot to make it impossible in order to avoid further destabilization of the country.
After all, she claims that the current government is not legitimate.
#5 Morocco Surprised Everyone
Morocco was widely expected to be eliminated from the World Cup in the round of 16. However, their great performance in the round of 32, and the fact that they are facing Canada in the round of 16, made traders believe they can go up to the quarterfinals.
This World Cup is one of the most interesting in years (especially after the Qatar edition in 2022). Is your team still in the game? Let us know in the comments.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.