Good morning! As the US and Iran continue their love taps (as Trump likes to call small strikes), we are reporting on the most recent changes in the forecasts around the Iran war.
Outside of the war, today we focus on the midterms races, where we got two upsets in the primaries. Additionally, we spotlight an election market for South Korea, where traders also got a bit surprised.
Let’s take a look at the markets!
Main Events Of The Day
#1 Iran Peace
Peace markets were fairly stable even amid the exchange of fire.
Kuwait airport was hit in retaliation for strikes on Qeshm Island. Traders must see them as love taps, part of the negotiation process. The Iran airspace market confirms it - there is alo no move, even as some analysts forecast imminent return to hostilities:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. Traders don’t really see the exchange of fire as a change in status quo.
Rather, they see them as a confirmation of the difficult position of both sides, which warrants a continued double blockade. Prediction markets last faith in the imminent deal quicker and priced in a prolonged closure earlier:
#3 No Upset Here
Karen Bass won the first round of the LA Mayoral election, as expected by traders who gave her 77% chance just before the vote count.
It is expected that Spencer Pratt will challenge her in the second round.
However, it is unlikely to be a problem for Karen Bass, who has now 75% to win the final battle:
#4 But Plenty Of Upsets Here
He headed into the election with only 1% chance to win. His battle is hardly over though as New Jersey haven’t had a GOP Senator since 1972.
A similar story occurred in Montana, this time on the Democratic primary.
However, Montana is almost bound to go to the Republicans:
#5 South Korea Also Got Surprising Results
Lastly, we have another election upset in the making, this time in South Korea.
In the highly contested local elections, prices are swinging as turnout approaches 60%. In tomorrow’s Morning Brief we are bound to have an upset.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.