Good morning! Today, as usual, we are giving an update on the Iran situation. We have updates on a daily basis as the situation remains volatile. However, prediction markets traders seem to have understood the game as volatility there is lower than what we got used to in the previous months.
Adjacent to the Iran war we will take a look at news from Lebanon, where a possible etension of a ceasefire happened. Lastly, we will take a look at the new US AG and a flurry of news from the South Korea local and by-elections.
Let’s take a look at the markets!
Main Events Of The Day
#1 Iran Peace
Negotiations to end the Iran war continue. Trump is promising an imminent breakthrough while the Iranian side highlights there are plenty of issues to resolve.
Traders, reading between the lines, see that there is more time needed to achieve permanent peace, with chances for one flat this week. Same can be said about Iran closing its airspace - with no willingness to return to hostilities, we can clearly see the time decay on the airspace closure markets:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. Traders continue to price in a prolonged closure of the strait.
The energy markets are still behind prediction markets in that regard. Oil has been trading in the $90-$100 range for weeks now, reacting to every new peace rumor. Prediction markets are still far from being the ultimate truth arbiter, but they’ve been pricing in the reality around the war much more accurately than energy markets:
#3 Lebanon Ceasefire Gets Another Chance
Israel and Lebanon agreed to give the ceasefire another chance in a surprising move.
Traders doubted any breakthrough can be achieved in such a short time. However, Lebanon issue bing central to the wider Iran war, it must have got a priority by the US State Department. We’ll see if this one is successful, though, as al the previous ones proved to be fragile and prone to breaking quickly.
#4 The New AG Is In Town
Trump announced he will nominate Todd Blanche as the next AG, sending the market to resolution.
Todd Blanche has been the interim AG, after Pam Bondi was fired from the job. It was expected that Trump will nominate him or Lee Zeldin, however many traders were expecting some time will pass before the announcement. Another shocker as the market traded at only 10% before the announcement.
#5 Korean Upsets
The local election in South Korea left us with mixed feelings. The ruling party managed to secure some wins, including the majority in the parliament, but it got less seats than anticipated and lost the Seul Mayoral Election:
If anything, it proves that the race was closer than anticipated and that the current opposition still has some foothold after the failed coup.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.