6.5.2026 - Iran Update, Trump x Putin Friendship, Alberta To Vote, Troubles Of Starmer
Morning Brief by PROPHET x Adjacent
Good morning! Today we got another flurry of Iran news. On the one side, Trump is teasing an imminent deal with Iran agreeing to send enriched uranium to a third country. On the other side, Iran claims no deal as long as the Lebanon war continues.
Outside of Iran, we are taking a look at Trump x Putin friendship, Canada and the UK politics.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!
Main Events Of The Day
#1 Iran Peace
Iran peace chances are flat on the news.
Prediction markets didn’t really buy the last imminent peace deal narrative, thus the lack of movement. Traders still expect at least 2 more months of the stalemate as chances of Iran’s airspace closure remain minimal:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Prices are mostly flat across different strikes.
Same as above, traders have fully priced in a prolonged stalemate. However, the energy markets are still behind the curve. Oil prices are safely below $100 per barrel:
#3 Trump x Putin Friendship
Trump once again praised Putin to maintain his friendship, shocking traders as the market traded around 20c just before the event.
He called both Putin and Zelensky “two very good people”. These remarks come as both countries are engaged in the most deadly strikes since the start of the war. Peace talks remain stalled with chances for peace low:
Is it a start of the new negotiation process? We will see.
#4 Alberta Will Vote
The Alberta separatist movement secured enough votes for a referendum to leave Canada.
Traders expected it for quite some time now. While no specific date has been given yet, Alberta is rumored to schedule the referendum for October. We see it as a US-influenced operation aiming to undermine Canada’s strength ahead of the USMCA renegotiation.
However, traders expect the referendum to fail:
#5 Starmer Is In Trouble Again
The troubles of Keir Starmer continue. Only 2 weeks passed since the last challenge to his leadership. Now, Andy Burnham confirmed he is looking to get the top job once he wins his by-election in June.
However, traders continue to see it as a longer process. Prices on the end of July market are at 38c, while the end of year market is trading at 75%, indicating that traders have little doubt Starmer will lose his job later this year.
The wolves are circling and waiting for the perfect moment. July will be an interesting month in the UK politics.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.