Good morning! Overnight there were some strikes between Israel and Iran. Both countries are clashing due to Lebanon. Additionally we had some Yemeni strikes on Israel.
Outside of the Iran war, we had a massive earthquake, as well as some rumors on the next generation of Claude from Anthropic.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!
Main Events Of The Day
#1 Iran Peace
Chances for peace dropped slightly amid the recent escalations.
While Iran and Israel are striking each other, prompted by the unresolved situation in Lebanon, Trump is urging both sides to show restraint. It seemed to have worked, as Iran announced a stop to the strikes.
However, the overnight strikes were enough to close the Iranian airspace:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. The recent escalation caused the short-term strikes to dip as traders understood the exchange of fire as a sign that negotiations are still at an early stage.
This is quite aligned with the view of the energy markets. Oil barley moved on the escalation and the main benchmarks are still well below $100 per barrel:
#3 Escalations In The Middle East
Yemen was also part of the strikes on Israel. Traders now see 24% chance we will see an Israeli retaliation.
Additionally, Yemen announced a closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for Israeli vessels. However, Trump’s efforts to deescalate seem to be working, for now.
#4 Earthquake In Asia
A powerful 7.8 earthquake hit Philippines. At least 15 people have died.
Traders saw a fair chance of another strong earthquake by the end of the month and the forecast delivered. Earthquake markets are extremely efficient as the data behind the forecasts is sound and proved over time.
#5 Claude 5 Is Coming
Claude Mythos is now expected to be called Claude 5, moving the market on the model’s release up.
The long-teased model is supposed to offer vastly superior capabilities. So much so, that its initial release to the public was postponed. We are looking forward to testing the capabilities of the Claude Mythos once it’s live.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.