Good morning! After a brief escalation of hostilities, we are back to the stalemate in the Iran war. The Lebanon issue remains central to any future negotiations.
Outside of the Iran war, today we cover the problems in forming the Romanian government, an extremely close Peru election and a possible release of Claude Mythos.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!
Main Events Of The Day
#1 Iran Peace
Iran has stopped its strikes on Israel, warning that they will resume if Israel continues its campaign in Lebanon.
Peace chances are flat on the news. For a week now we had no rumors of progress. However, the fact that the end of June market is flat indicates that there’s still an expectation of a new peace narrative by the end of the month.
Additionally, traders don’t expect the ceasefire to end:
#2 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed. With Lebanon taking the headlines, there’s been less focus on the issue.
However, Polymarket traders are actively adjusting their forecasts; Every market, but the end of year one, continue to drop as traders price in a prolonged stalemate. There, they differ from energy markets, which dropped off after the strikes finished:
At this point we must say that energy markets are being actively manipulated to lessen the economic pain coming from the closure of the strait. However, at some point, the reality will catch up.
#3 Romania Government Crisis Continues
Romania’s president has chosen the new prime minister, Eugen Tomac. However, traders are doubtful he will be able to get enough votes in the palriament.
Eugen Tomac reportedly refused to speak with AUR, raising doubts that he won’t get enough votes. Traders are extremely bearish on his prospects, with Yes price falling from 63c to 33c.
Seems like we will hear more from Romania before the next PM is announced.
#4 Extremely Close Election in Peru
We had one of the closest election ever in Peru. After counting almost 95% of the vote, 2 candidates have only 25,000 votes between them.
However, traders are virtually sure Keiko Fujimori will be the next president of Peru. Taking into account the origin of the remaining votes, they have little doubt most of them will go towards Keiko.
#5 Mythos Is Here
The Claude Mythos market rose sharply on rumors we might get Claude Mythos as soon as today.
It’s a widely anticipated model as it’s been out of the public hands initially due to its supposed power. I imagine we will have plenty of amateur and not so amateur hackers try it out soon. You might want to check your crypto wallet connections just in case.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.