Good morning! It’s a quiet morning in the Middle East, sparking theories that further escalation is on the way. We cover the latest developments around the Iran war in our Strait of Hormuz section. We still keep it as a daily special as the traffic through the strait continues to impact our lives across the globe.
Next, we turn to domestic affairs in the US as traders have sharply adjusted their forecast on Mitch McConnell’s chances of finishing his term. Then we move across the pond to see the havoc Marine Le Pen’s decision wrecked on the French political landscape.
Finally, we wrap up with a few lighter topics—we start with the new UFO files to move on the short brief on the latest World Cup game.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
After a couple of days of intense strikes, we have had an unexpected period of calm. Neither side is conducting military operations, but the Strait of Hormuz has effectively closed:
Prediction markets are flat, waiting for any signal to adjust the forecast. So is oil, still not paying enough attention to the unfolding energy crisis:
#2 Mitch McConnell Seems OK
Moving to domestic issues in the US, Mitch McConnell was seen on a stretcher as he was being loaded into an ambulance.
Traders quickly interpreted the news as a signal that he is getting better, meaning that the only reason for him to resign is disappearing. The market dropped off a cliff, from 60c down to 47c. Seems that the old man still has it in himself.
#3 Turbulence in France After the Marine Le Pen Verdict
Moving across the pond, Marine Le Pen has created some chaos in French politics. Just after her campaign announcement, the United Left encountered problems.
The Socialist Party is rumored to have resigned from the primary, undermining the united front. Traders expect other parties to abandon the idea as well as Marine Le Pen’s announcement was widely unexpected.
#4 New UFO Files?
The market on the new UFO files being declassified by Trump has moved up as the War Department released the fourth batch of the files.
Traders were expecting the release, however we can see in the comment section that some No holders were just a bit too sure of themselves. We are now awaiting the first news reports to see if anything worthwhile was released.
#5 First Quarterfinals Are Behind Us
Lastly, something for soccer fans. Prediction markets were quick to catch that France has an advantage over Morocco. As expected, France won 2-0 to advance to the semifinals.
France is now the favorite to win the whole tournament:
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.