Good morning! We continue to monitor the midterms situation and the Iran war on a regular basis. And in both, there are interesting patterns that have emerged in the last couple of weeks.
On top of that, today we take a closer look at a SCOTUS rumor before we turn towards tech as there’s been a lot of volatility on Waymo and Mythos markets. Lastly, we take a moment to contemplate the career of LeBron James. Arguably the GOAT of basketball seems to be set on continuing to play despite his age.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!
The Midterms Tracker
RED
After the Colorado primaries the RED index is stable. However, the underlying indices show us a bit different story. Even though there were no surprises in the Colorado primary. The only contested market that remains is on the Republican Governor Primary:
Senate
SENR has barely moved since yesterday, however there’s a clear trend when we look at a longer-term data.
The index rose from 98.6 points on the 10th of June to 99.51 points today. A small difference in the grand scheme of things, but a one that indicates we might see the index above 100 soon. When that happens, the chances of Republican control of the Senate after the midterms will be even, after staying below 50% for over a month.
House
HOUSER index, however, shows a completely different story. While SENR is slowly rising, HOUSER is on the decline.
As it currently stands, the indices predict a tight Senate race along with a Democratic House. With four months till the midterms, we can expect the focus to go on the Senate races.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be effectively closed.
Majority of the traffic goes through the Iranian corridor, suggesting that a large part of the crossings are connected to Iranian import-export activity. The markets on traffic normalization continue to go down after a hopeful burst last week. The end of July strikes currently trades at 31c, suggesting that traffic normalization is a rather remote possibility in the short-term. At the same time, oil markets continue to defy reality:
They go not only against the prediction markets signal, but also agains the price action in downstream products as we continue to see a massive divergence in the 3-2-1 crack spread relative to Brent price:
#2 New SCOTUS Judge This Year?
The SCOTUS vacancy market jumped on the rumor that judge Alito might retire this year.
The article was quickly retracted, but traders still think that there was some truth to the rumor, with Yes price now at 46c vs 28c just before the article was published. Ultimately, Alito’s retirement would make little difference for Republicans. Alito was appointed by George Bush in 2006 and is considered as staunchly conservative.
#3 Mythos Is Back
Just as the month was ending, the US government announced that Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 are no longer restricted.
Fable will be accessible to everyone, while the less restricted Mythos model will be made available to around 100 trusted organizations. Traders were definitely onto something when priced moved sharply up on June 26th. However, just before the announcement the Yes price traded at only 6c.
#4 Waymo Mystery Solved
A couple of days ago we reported on volatility on the Waymo market. With some cities being temporarily offline, traders were unsure of the final number, which induced a lot of last minute volatility on the market.
However, as the month ended, the market settled on 8 cities as the final number for now. There is still a dispute on the market, but the price suggests that nothing will change.
#5 Isn’t LeBron Too Old For This
LeBron James announced that he will not play for the Los Angeles Lakers in the upcoming NBA season.
Arguably the greatest player to ever play in the NBA is not retiring either. Despite his upcoming 42nd birthday in December, he is set on playing at least one more season. It’s astonishing how modern approach to health makes it possible for players after 40 to still play competitively in the best basketball league in the world.
Currently, Golden State Warriors seem to be the favorite to sign the legend. However, his previous teams, Miami Heat and hometown Cleveland Cavaliers are also in the run.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.