Good morning! Outside of the raging Iran war, which we cover in the Strait of Hormuz section, the biggest news of the day comes from the UK. After weeks of speculation, Andy Burnham teased his cabinet picks by leaking some rumors to the press. Traders were quite surprised to learn some of his choices—we expand on this topic below.
We also briefly focus on Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump before turning to business and the first rumor about the upcoming OpenAI hardware device that traders say might launch this year. Lastly, we have something for everyone watching the World Cup.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
The Midterms Tracker
RED
RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.
Senate
SENR is back to the slow upward trend, reaching 100.49 points. The index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.
House
After a short period of stabilization around 75 points, HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
Trade Strait of Hormuz traffic on Stand
The Iran war shows no signs of de-escalation. Both sides continue to exchange strikes—while Iran still focuses on the US bases in the region, America has expanded its target selection across Iran.
In the meantime, the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz shows no change:
However, neither side is escalating when it comes to the target selection—key infrastructure is still left alone. Traders following the conflict noticed the restraint, stabilizing the Yes price on the end of August market at 13c.
#2 War Planning?
Trade Trump to meet Netanyahu by…? on Stand
Amid the ongoing hostilities, Netanyahu is supposed to meet with Trump. Traders were expecting he will see him first thing after arriving in the US.
However, it is reported that Netanyahu will meet with Trump only on Monday. They are expected to discuss Lebanon ahead of the Trump’s meeting with the President of Lebanon on July 21st. Considering the text of the recently signed Lebanon framework, we can consider it war planning.
#3 The New UK Cabinet Is Taking Shape
Trade UK Cabinet Nominations on Stand
Turning to UK politics, Andy Burnham’s new cabinet is starting to take shape after weeks of speculation.
Traders had Ed Miliband as the favorite to be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer, but it’s Shabana Mahmood, the current Home Secretary, who is now expected to get the job. These are unconfirmed rumors for now, but traders seem to trust them, giving Shabana Mahmood an 86% chance to take over Britain’s finances.
Trade UK Cabinet Nominations on Stand
Ed Miliband is not left without a job. He is now expected to be the next Foreign Secretary, replacing Yvette Cooper. She shouldn’t complain—traders now give her a 41% chance of taking over the Home Secretary position:
Trade UK Cabinet Nominations on Stand
Andy Burnham will be confirmed as Labour Party leader on Friday; he can become the next prime minister as soon as next week.
#4 OpenAI Teased a New Hardware Product
Trade OpenAI Consumer Hardware Product Launch on Stand
Outside of politics, Bloomberg reported that OpenAI is working on a mobile smart speaker as its first consumer hardware device. The device is designed to be screen-free and is being pitched internally as a “humanlike AI companion that lives in the home.”
Traders have expected OpenAI to ship a hardware product ever since Jony Ive was hired. They treat the news as a first teaser and now see a 54% chance we will see the device this year.
#5 World Cup Semifinals
Lastly, something for the soccer fans. After a surprising defeat of France against Spain, Kylian Mbappe was no longer the favorite to win the Golden Boot. Additionally, after Argentina defeated England to advance to the finals, Lionel Messi is now the favorite to be decorated as the top goal scorer.
The 39 year old legend still has it in himself. Who are you rooting for in the finals? Let us know in the comments!
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.