Good morning! For the 6th night in a row, strikes continued across Iran, which we cover in the Strait of Hormuz section. Big news out of SpaceX as they postpone the highly anticipated Starship launch that was set for today. Markets are hoping for some clarity on the Clarity Act at today’s hearing at Federal Hall.
We also take a look at some of the key primaries taking place next week in Arizona before wrapping up with the World Cup final, where prediction markets have established a clear favorite.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!
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The Midterms Tracker
RED
RED is remains in the 90.5-91.5 range.
Senate
SENR is back to the slow upward trend, reaching 100.44 points. The index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.
House
After a short period of stabilization around 75 points, HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
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US strikes on Iran continued overnight, hitting an airport, a railway station, and several bridges. American forces boarded a ship in the Gulf of Oman, enforcing the renewed blockade of Iran’s ports that began earlier this week. Markets are pricing in a coinflip with 52% chance Strait traffic returns to normal by year end.
#2 SpaceX Postpones Launch
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When will SpaceX launch Starship? Not today. Elon posted on X that two of the Super Heavy booster’s Raptor rocket engines need to be replaced with the most likely launch window shifting to early next week. Markets disagree and are pricing in a July 31st launch date.
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On a related note, with SpaceX stock down 50% from post IPO highs, rumors continue around a Tesla/SpaceX merger. We will continue to monitor this market which currently implies a 23% probability of an official merger announcement before year end.
#3 Clarity Act Hearing
Today’s hearing is the last scheduled public opportunity for input before the expected July 20 floor vote. The House subcommittee will hear testimony from exchanges, banks, and custodians. Let’s see what happens today, but traders are skeptical giving Clarity 31% chance of becoming law by year end.
#4 AZ Primaries
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On Tuesday, election traders will be focused on the Arizona primaries. Congressional District 1 is considered highly competitive since the current Representative David Schweikert is running for governor instead of seeking re-election. As of now, markets believe the general election will be between Jay Feely and Amish Shah.
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#5 World Cup
It’s been an exciting summer of soccer and it all comes to a head this weekend as Spain faces off against Argentina for the World Cup title. Markets have Spain as the favorite with a 60% chance of victory, but if we have learned anything since the tournament started, never bet against Messi.
Mbappe and team will face off against England on Saturday for the chance to secure a 3rd place finish. Traders and fans are pricing in a 65% chance they pull it off.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you next week for another Morning Brief!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.