Good morning! We’d love to focus on the dramatic ending of the World Cup, but the events around Iran over the weekend have our full attention. We cover the latest developments in the Middle East in the Strait of Hormuz section.
Outside of the Middle East, today’s edition focuses on elections—we had a presidential election in a small African nation as well as some interesting market moves around the Ottawa Mayoral Election.
Before wrapping up with the World Cup, we have a short segment on the potential problems around SpaceX and its flagship rocket Starship.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!
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Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
The Midterms Tracker
RED
RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.
Senate
SENR is back to the slow upward trend, reaching 100.36 points. The index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.
House
After a short period of stabilization around 75 points, HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
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The hostilities continued over the weekend. Neither side appears ready to de-escalate, despite some attempts to arrange a ceasefire. Additionally, another American soldier was killed in Iraq, raising speculation that a ground invasion might be coming.
In the meantime, the traffic through the strait ground to a standstill. The first signs of a ceasefire made traders hopeful that we can reach some kind of normalization soon. However, chances of one are still slim:
Oil prices have finally reacted to the news, reaching over$90 per barrel of Brent:
#2 São Tomé and Príncipe Presidential Election
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Turning to election markets, we had an election in a small island country in Africa. Traders expected the incumbent Carlos Vila Nova to win and while the count is still ongoing, traders see his victory as inevitable.
Looks like even niche election markets work well!
#3 Surprise in the Ottawa Mayoral Election
Trade Ottawa Mayoral Election on Stand
Staying on the topic of elections, one trader has completely moved the order book on the Ottawa Mayoral Election market. He bought out almost the entire open interest and now the incumbent Mark Sutcliffe dropped from favorite down to the fourth place!
Does he have any alpha? Or was it just a misclick?
#4 Starship Launch Delayed
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In tech, SpaceX has once again delayed the launch of the Starship Flight Test 13. The decision was caused by a Raptor 3 engine ignition failure.
The sudden problems caused massive volatility on the launch market. Even the end of August market experienced a sharp correction as traders fear that a second delay might mean tougher problems to resolve.
#5 We Have the Winner
Lastly, something for the soccer fans. We had a World Cup final yesterday! After a tense 90 minutes the game went into overtime. Late in extra time, Spain scored a goal against Argentina to win the trophy after a spectacular performance during the entire tournament.
Trump even managed to get in the photo!
Did you enjoy the World Cup? Let us know in the comments.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.