Good morning! The situation in the Middle East continues to escalate. The Houthis announced that the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is now closed for Saudi Arabian vessels. In the meantime, Iran and the US continue to exchange strikes. We dive deeper into recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz section.
Domestically, Lindsey Graham’s sister is now the favorite to win the South Carolina Senate Special Primary with all the endorsements. Then we move across the pond to examine the surprises in the new Burnham Cabinet—and there are a lot of them!
Lastly, we take a last look at the World Cup, which is poised to break some records.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!
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The Midterms Tracker
RED
RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.
Senate
SENR is back to the slow upward trend, reaching 100.38 points. The index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.
House
After a short period of stabilization around 75 points, HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
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Iran and the US continue to exchange strikes as I write this brief. Targets remain unchanged and the intensity is high. The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization markets continue to imply a prolonged disruption. Ceasefire markets tell a similar story:
Oil prices continue their rally, with Brent above $90 per barrel:
#2 Bab-el-Mandeb Closed?
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On the other side of the Arabian peninsula, the Houthis have escalated the conflict announcing that the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is closed for Saudi Arabian vessels.
While this is not a full closure, traders expect the situation to escalate as the Houthis now need to deliver on their threat. The chances of the strait being effectively closed by the end of August rose to 17%:
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#3 South Carolina Special Primary
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Moving to the midterms, Darline Graham Nordone officially entered the race with Trump’s endorsement. She’s the late Lindsey Graham’s sister and she’s currently in his seat as the interim replacement.
This year the Trump endorsed candidates performed significantly better in the primaries, making the case for Darline’s success. Traders now give her 78% chance to win the primary.
#4 The UK Cabinet Is Confirmed
Across the Atlantic, Andy Burnham was confirmed as the new Prime Minister of the UK. At the same time, he announced his new Cabinet picks, shocking some traders.
Shabana Mahmood ended up staying as the Home Secretary with John Healey confirmed as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer. With Home Secretary unavailable, Wes Streeting ended up as Defense Secretary.
John Healey is a major surprise. However, he is considered to be a fiscal moderate, solving for the main problem.
Ed Miliband was the one person the market got right. He was confirmed as the Foreign Secretary while Yvette Cooper took the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care.
#5 A Massive Success
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Lastly, the recent World Cup is expected to shatter the viewership records. The event was a massive success and traders now expect the US viewership alone was over 58 million.
The global records are also expected to be beaten. The only sad part is that now we need to wait four years for the next one.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
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Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.