Good morning! It’s day 11 of non-stop strikes on Iran. However, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz seems to have stabilized—we cover the Iran war in the Strait of Hormuz section. Additionally, Trump met with the Lebanese President and announced a landmark nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia. It was a busy day in the Middle East and we have some market scoops to complement the news.
Before we move beyond war coverage, we have a segment on the recent political crisis in Ukraine, where Zelensky again proves he is a flexible politician that can get out of any trouble.
Lastly, we take a look at the SpaceX Starship launch which might get delayed again.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
The Midterms Tracker
RED
RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.
Senate
SENR is back to the slow upward trend, reaching 100.43 points. The index indicates a balanced outlook, suggesting that Republicans have a fair shot at keeping the Senate.
House
HOUSER continues to trend down, hitting 74 points and indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
Trade Strait of Hormuz traffic on Stand
CENTCOM announced that they completed another round of strikes, making for 11 days of consecutive exchange of fire between America and Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market is flat and so is the effective ceasefire market:
New ceasefire proposals are being floated, but neither side seems ready to stop the strikes. However, it seems that we have avoided a wider escalation—both sides have stuck to their usual target list.
In the meantime, oil is up almost 5% over the last 24 hours with Brent hitting $95 per barrel:
#2 Fake Netanyahu-Trump Rift
Trade Trump to meet Netanyahu by…? on Stand
Back in the White House, Trump met with the President of Lebanon. However, the media tried to make a story out of another meeting that didn’t happen. The markets tell another story.
While the Netanyahu meeting by the end of July has 42% chance of happening, the chances of a meeting by the end of August are flat at 79%. Traders have little doubt they will meet and paid little attention to the fake drama.
In the end, both are in this war together.
#3 Abraham Accords On The Rise
Trade Which Countries Will Recognize Israel on Stand
Staying in the region, Saudi Arabia signed a nuclear agreement with the US.
In a landmark deal Saudi Arabia will have access to a civilian nuclear program with a possible enrichment in the country. Traders interpreted this sign as the kingdom getting closer to the west. Chances of Israel recognition by Saudi Arabia shot up on the news.
Especially after Trump said that many countries will sign Abraham Accords soon.
#4 Troubles in Ukraine
Trade The Ukraine War on Stand
Moving to Europe, Ukraine is now in the midst of a new political crisis. It all started when Zelensky fired defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov. He is widely considered as the mastermind behind the new drone-centered military strategy, however he supposedly clashed a lot with other senior officials.
After several days of protests, Zelensky changed course. He fired General Oleksandr Syrskyi instead and offered Fedorov another senior government position.
It looks like a usual game between the old guard and the new blood.
#5 SpaceX Test Flight Delayed Again?
Trade Starship Launch on Stand
Lastly, we still lack official confirmation for the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13. A few days ago the launch was delayed for the second time and Thursday was set as the go date.
However, with no news in sight, traders are starting to doubt the timeline. Currently the market gives 66% chance Starship will launch tomorrow.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.