Good morning! The Iran war rages on as the US completed the 13th consecutive day of strikes. We cover the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz section. Additionally, we also look at an interesting relationship between rising oil prices and the odds of Democratic sweep—a trend now showing up in SENR. Ending the politics section, we take a look at the apparent Netanyahu-Trump rift.
Then we shift focus to the Clarity Act signing chances. The legislation enters a crucial period that will determine its future. Lastly, we take a look on tech—more specifically on the new Claude Opus that never came and a possible launch of the SpaceX Starship rocket.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!
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The Midterms Tracker
RED
RED is flat on the day and remains around the 90.5-91.5 range.
Senate
SENR started to fall slightly. I saw an interesting analysis showing that Senate chances are affected by rising oil prices:
We’re beginning to see that relationship reflected in SENR as well.
House
HOUSER continues to trend down, indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
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The US concluded a 13th consecutive night of strikes. Iran, of course, is responding in kind and the risk of further escalation continues to rise. Trump is increasing the stakes, threatening civil infrastructure and suggesting that Israel might join in the action.
The forecast on the Strait of Hormuz traffic is unchanged. Oil, on the other hand, is converging fast with that forecast, with Brent briefly breaching $100 per barrel:
#2 Netanyahu-Trump Friendship Drama
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While the war rages on, the media continues to push the narrative of a Netanyahu-Trump rift.
Netanyahu is reportedly struggling to get an appointment with Trump during his visit to the US for Lindsey Graham’s funeral. This time, however, traders took the rumors more seriously—chance of a meeting by the end of August cratered to just 42%.
Or maybe they think that an escalation is coming and Netanyahu will be needed at home. Our guess is the latter.
#3 Troubles Around the Clarity Act
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Turning to crypto policy, crypto markets are entering choppy waters as doubts are rising around the Clarity Act.
Republicans have to vote on the legislation before the August recess to ensure it can get signed before the midterms. September is filled with funding debates and once that’s over, we are off to the midterms.
The current debate is on the ethics clause, fueled by Trump’s recent crypto profits disclosure. Democratic support is needed to reach the 60 vote threshold, and are demanding a tighter ethics clause barring public officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring digital assets.
Each new development swings the market wildly as the legislative window narrows.
#4 No New Claude After All
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In tech, yesterday ended with no new Claude Opus. However, traders still expect to see the new model soon.
And almost certainly before the end of the month—they give 81% chance we will be able to test Opus 5 by then.
#5 SpaceX Starship Launch Delayed Again
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Lastly, the SpaceX Starship launch was delayed again.
This time, however, the weather was the main culprit. The launch was rescheduled and traders give 76% chance it will happen today. Do you expect to see any progress? Let us know in the comments.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you next week for another Morning Brief!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.