Good morning! We are back to strikes, and this time, not only in Iran. While the Middle East is once again on fire, a Russian missile struck Poland. We cover both events in the markets section. In the Middle East, we also take a look at the Hamas disarmament market as there are some rumors that the group might agree to disarm.
Then we turn our heads towards Cuba—seeing how stretched the US military is, traders sharply adjusted their forecast on the future of the regime there.
Lastly, we dive into the latest Polymarket dispute, where some traders believe a US anti-cartel operation took place in Ecuador.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!
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The Midterms Tracker
HOUSER
In Ohio, Republican Max Miller’s odds of winning dropped from over 80% to 60% after domestic abuse allegations from his ex-wife. OH-07 is 1 of 426 House races tracked in HOUSER and HOUSED. As a result, HOUSER closed at 101.79, down -0.23% and HOUSED closed at 104.83, up +0.09%.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
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As expected, the US went back to striking Iran—CENTCOM announced a new wave of strikes overnight:
Both sides managed to last only five days without an escalation, proving that the situation in the region remains volatile.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic markets went down on the news. Traders continue to believe that the only quick way out of this war is through diplomacy. Any kinetic escalation is a step back in that framework. Oil is back on the rise as a result with Brent breaching $90 per barrel:
#2 Is Hamas Disarming?
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Staying in the region, chance of Hamas agreeing to disarm shot up on rumors that the group might agree to transfer its heavy weapons to the Technocratic Palestinian Committee.
Reports are still unconfirmed, however, even a partial disarmament is enough to resolve the market to Yes. If that happens, it would be a major step forward in the Gaza process, which stalled recently.
#3 A Russian Missile Struck Poland
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It has been an intense week across geopolitical markets—in Europe, a Russian missile struck Poland in the early morning hours.
It’s yet another Russian incursion, the most recent being several drones breaching Polish airspace back in September. The event comes after several heads of state warned that Russia is getting ready for a major escalation.
However, Poland is not expected to accuse Russia that the strike was deliberate. As a NATO state, this could mean an all-out war between Russia and NATO. The alliance would rather avoid it, thus traders see Poland saying that it was an accident.
#4 The Cuban Regime Proves to Be Resilient
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Amid all the global wars, the Cuban humanitarian crisis gets little attention in the media. Partly because Cuba is proving to be more resilient than expected in the face of overstretched American forces.
The island is currently under a heavy US blockade and is effectively cut off from the outside world. However, even amid recurrent power grid collapses the country is still standing. The hard truth is that economic warfare takes time—countries don’t fall in a matter of days, weeks or even months.
Traders now see only 24% chance Miguel Diaz-Canel will be out of power by the end of the year, similar odds to the Iranian regime surviving past 2026.
#5 Unclear Anti-Cartel Ops
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Lastly, a more technical subject—there’s a new dispute on the US anti-cartel operation outside of the US market:
I described the case in my recent X post and at first glance, it’s a really tough call.
Only a couple days ago we showcased this very market when one trader entered the market after misinterpreting an earlier headline—now he’s lucky enough to exit his position in profit.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
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Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.