Good morning! It’s been an especially good day for the Middle East. Trump announced that Hamas agreed to disarm, while there were no US strikes on Iran. We cover these developments and what they mean for the region in the first two sections.
Then, we move to South Carolina, where Darline Graham is facing a tougher than expected race. For the last two markets we turn to tech and culture. We examine the chances of an imminent Gemini Pro release and look at two prospective Eurovision host cities.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!
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Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
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There were no US strikes on Iran overnight. However, the IRGC did strike Kuwait so we can expect American retaliation soon. Additionally, Iran continues to harass ships trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz:
Traders give only an 18% chance the strait will open by the end of September. Oil remains below $90 per barrel:
However, we are starting to see a real crunch in refined products:
Slowly but surely, we are starting to feel the economic impact of the Iran war.
#2 Hamas Disarmament Rumors Turn Out To Be True
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But there’s some good news. Trump announced that Hamas agreed to disarm.
Hamas and Israel reached a deal in which Hamas will disarm gradually, in line with Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Traders were right to treat the early rumor seriously, front-running the announcement by hours.
It’s a step towards stabilization in the region, done in cooperation with an Iranian proxy (even if by coercion).
#3 Trump’s Candidate In Danger
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Leaving the wars behind, we had a shocking poll on the South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary—Ralph Norman emerged as the first round winner with 22% of the vote vs Darline with 19%.
Traders expected the late Lindsey Graham’s sister to easily get the nomination after she was endorsed by Trump. Turns out she has a serious opponent, turning a boring primary into a contested race, even if the midterms election are all but decided.
#4 New Gemini Pro Is Coming
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Turning to tech, chances of a new Gemini Pro model launching soon soared after it appeared on Arena:
However, early testers claim it’s far behind the frontier models from Anthropic and OpenAI.
Google held a large lead over its competitors earlier in the year, but now are hardly in the conversation. It’s a testament to the rate of progress we see in the models. Can Google make Gemini great again?
#5 Eurovision Host City Battle
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Lastly, some culture news from Europe. One trader sharply repriced the Eurovision Host City market by buying over 10,000 shares against Sofia.
Is it a degen bet—or does someone know something? Let us know what you think in the comments.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you next week for another Morning Brief!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.