Good morning! Donald Trump started the day with a bang claiming that the Iran MoU is dead. This statement follows an overnight exchange of fire where multiple missiles were launched by both America and Iran. We examine the latest Middle East developments in the Strait of Hormuz section.
Outside of the Iran war, we have our usual midterms update and some big news out of France, where Marine Le Pen is unexpectedly getting ready for the 2027 presidential campaign.
Leaving politics behind, we saw big moves on the SpaceX launch market that suggest we might have a new Starship test soon. Staying in tech, we also know now that the GPT-5.6 “insiders” were wrong by just two days. Lastly, we take a closer look at the most recent dispute on Polymarket, involving… Cristiano Ronaldo.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense out of the news!
The Midterms Tracker
RED
RED is flat on the day and remains in the 90.5-91.5 range.
Senate
SENR is also stable, hovering around 99.5 points after breaking a slow upward trend.
House
HOUSER stabilized around 75 points indicating that Democrats are a strong favorite to win the House in the midterms.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
Last night was far from pretty. America and Iran exchanged multiple strikes after Iran targeted several vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The US bombed multiple targets in Iran while the US bases were targeted across the region, including strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain. There were also rumors of anti-naval missiles being launched by Iran, but we lack any official confirmation of a hit.
As expected, Trump was asked about the situation first thing in the morning and he candidly said that for him the MoU was dead. He announced he is withdrawing American negotiators and claimed there was no sense in negotiating with “scum”.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization markets went down across all strikes on the news. This time, the price of oil played along, spiking on the news:
However, we are still well below the recent highs. The next few days will be crucial—either we get another de-escalation or we are back to the fully blocked Strait of Hormuz.
#2 Marine Le Pen Is Back
Turning to European politics, France saw a shocking turn of events. Marine Le Pen unexpectedly won her appeal and announced she is now the National Rally candidate in the presidential election next year.
She had been found guilty of embezzlement last year and as a result was prohibited from taking office for five years. The appeals court has shortened the prohibition period, allowing her to run. However, she is still required to wear an electronic ankle bracelet, a punishment she intends to fight in the Court of Cassation, the highest French court.
Many traders were shocked as no one expected Marine Le Pen to campaign in an ankle bracelet. They failed to realize that she now has a personal vendetta.
#3 The Next SpaceX Starship Test Confirmed?
Moving outside of politics, the chances of a SpaceX Starship Test 13 spiked after one of the launch trackers uploaded a new schedule with the launch scheduled for July 14th. We still lack the official confirmation from SpaceX, however.
Some uncertainty remains, but traders seem to put a lot of trust in this tracker as the Yes price rose from 25c to 59c.
#4 GPT-5.6 Confirmed
After a failed insider attempt to time the release, we now have the official confirmation—OpenAI got permission to launch GPT-5.6 on July 9th.
With the launch all but assured, this volatile market can finally resolve after giving anxiety to a lot of insider followers. We, on the other hand, can test and see if OpenAI has caught up with Anthropic.
#5 Ronaldo Did Cry
Lastly, overnight we had another wild dispute market. After Portugal lost to Spain in the World Cup, many traders were on the lookout for Ronaldo’s tears. The Portuguese striker is known for getting emotional after big games.
Ronaldo was visibly upset after the game, but the sweat made it difficult to determine whether a tear was shed. As traders debated the available footage, the market swung to extremes; first almost to 0c, later up to 100c after Polymarket clarified that Ronaldo did in fact cry.
Amazing stories happen on Polymarket sometimes. The important thing is to not get caught up in them. We silently hope that Ronaldo watched it play out in real time and at least got a laugh out of it!
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.