Good morning! This weekend was a tense one—deal talks nearly collapsed after Iran released its demands. Markets, however, still see a meaningful path to an agreement. After our Iran war brief (and an interesting update on Mojtaba Khamenei) we turn to Israel and examine why did it rejected the Hamas disarmament proposal.
War-related markets are the news of the day. After the Middle East, we examine the increased probability of US strikes in Colombia. Lastly, we leave the war markets alone to focus on the apparent delay of the upcoming OpenAI consumer hardware device.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!
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Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
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There’s been a major obstacle in the negotiations over the weekend—Iran released its demands, which outside of the usual points, include tying the opening of the Strait of Hormuz to a compensation for breaking the MoU.
Traders see this as a significant, but ultimately short term issue:
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While the price on the August 15 market dropped to 35c, the end of month market is still at 65c, indicating that in the end, traders see this deal being implemented. Oil prices share that sentiment, with WTI below $80 per barrel:
However, the market is far less optimistic about a broader agreement, after unidentified US officials leaked that Trump was mulling over walking away from the war without a nuclear deal:
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#2 But Something New IS Coming
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Deal or no deal, there are significant new developments in Iran. The state media recently released footage of Mojtaba Khamenei, causing the market on his public appearance chances to spike:
However, the video was quickly confirmed as old footage that had circulated online before the war.
Why didn’t the price come back down to previous levels? Traders see that a line was crossed—the regime sees a need to show the leader. They see the video as the first one, not the only one. That being said, there is a risk of other recycled videos to surface as new.
#3 Hamas Disarmament in Question
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Staying in the Middle East, Israel announced that it has rejected the Hamas disarmament proposal brokered by the Board of Peace.
Israel is pushing for full disarmament that is not tied to the IDF withdrawal. However, traders view the rejection as part of the negotiation process and domestic political play ahead of the October election.
There’s still 43% chance the disarmament will happen this year, up from 17% before the Board of Peace proposal.
#4 Are US Strikes on Colombia Coming?
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Military action markets can’t leave us alone today—the market on US strikes in Colombia spiked from 21% to 31% after the announcement of $1 billion in US aid to Colombia.
The announcement coincided with the presential inauguration and, two attacks in Colombia. Traders see it as a strong signal that the US-Colombia cooperation against cartels will expand. And it’s likely it will include strikes on cartel positions, similarly to what we’ve recently seen in Nigeria.
#5 No OpenAI Hardware After All
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Lastly, some tech news. Back in February, traders gave well over 50% chance of a consumer hardware product from OpenAI by year end. Now they give only 14%.
The Apple lawsuit is likely to blame—rumors are that amid legal troubles, OpenAI has delayed the release to 2027.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.