Good morning! Today we tried to limit the war markets to a minimum—all Iran war developments are covered in the Strait of Hormuz section. The lack of a deal affects the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve so we also take a look at the most recent forecast regarding its level.
Then we move over to the Fed, which is no longer projected to hike rates this year. Staying in finance, we examine Anthropic IPO prospects after a recent WSJ article reaffirmed the original timeline.
Lastly, we take a look at Google Gemini, which has spectacularly fallen from the top of the leaderboard to 8th place after multiple failed Gemini Pro 3.5 releases.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!
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Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait of Hormuz
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Negotiations with Iran are ongoing. Trump did the Art of the Deal and now we are waiting for an Iranian response:
It’s surely a process, but it increasingly looks like we still have a longer way to go before any deal materializes.
Traders are increasingly pessimistic about any deal prospects. So are oil traders, with both Brent and WTI up over 10% in a week:
#2 Reserves Down
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With no imminent deal in sight, traders are no longer forecasting a relief—the chance of the SPR falling below 285M barrels is now at 42% vs 11% only a few days ago.
As of yesterday, the official count dropped below 300M barrels for the first time since 1983. And if traders have a good hunch, we might soon go way lower.
The only event that can change this market is a deal on the Strait of Hormuz. Otherwise, we will continue to go lower.
#3 No More Fed Hike
Leaving the war behind, in the US the Fed is no longer expected to hike rates this year.
Both markets fell below 50c on the dismal jobs report—America lost 23k jobs in July vs an expected 83k gain. Additionally, previous months were revised down by 103k. Rapidly deteriorating conditions in the job market are the only thing that can stop Kevin Warsh from hiking. He was clear that inflation is his top priority—traders believe only an imminent recession can change this plan.
#4 Anthropic IPO Coming?
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In tech, Anthropic is gearing up for an IPO—the most recent WSJ article puts it on the turn of September. Traders give a 69% chance it happens by the end of October.
Plan aside, IPOs can get easily derailed by market conditions or rapidly changing financing environment. We saw that this year with the planned OpenAI IPO—this time traders are more restrained, but still positive we will see Anthropic on the stock market this year.
#5 No New Gemini Pro This Month
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Lastly, after multiple promises, the next Gemini Pro model will most likely not go live this month—traders give a 63% chance the launch slips past August.
AI insiders on X claim that Google has silently given up on Gemini Pro 3.5 and is instead working to bring a major update, Gemini 4, to the market as soon as possible:
It’s amazing how an AI Lab that has consistently ranked first on all major benchmarks is now effectively irrelevant when it comes to the frontier models. Can Gemini 4 change that?
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.