Good morning! Finally, the biggest story of the day is not war—Nate Silver released his midterms model and caused quite a turmoil in the markets. We cover that in the Midterms Tracker. Then we move on to the Strait of Hormuz, to give a short update on the situation.
We stay in the Middle East for one more story as Venezuela restored consular relations with Israel—we examine how likely it is that Delcy will be pressured to fully recognize Israel. We leave the diplomats to focus on rogue drones and missiles as both Russia and North Korea are probing the West with more intensity.
Lastly, we head to New Zealand, where the prime minister survived a second confidence vote in a matter of months.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!
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Midterms Tracker
Nate Silver released his midterms model and caused a lot of turmoil in the markets. His model strongly favors Democrats—he even has Texas as “lean D”, pushing Talarico ahead of Paxton!
Similar situation is happening in the House markets. Nate Silver assumes that the redistricting war gave Republicans only a mild advantage. This caused traders to lower their redistricting premium.
Florida was one of the most affected states, where weighted probability fell by 3.4 points.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait of Hormuz
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We have no updates on the deal negotiations. However, outside of isolated operations in Lebanon and Yemen, the situation remains stable—both Iran and America are back to enforcing their blockades. Markets are flat and waiting for information, good or bad.
In the meantime, the EIA raised its Brent forecast to $87, citing energy-transfer restrictions. Brent is above this level right now:
Without a diplomatic solution soon, the reserves will no longer have the capacity to plug the gap.
#2 Will Venezuela Recognize Israel?
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The fact Israel is fighting three wars at the same time is not stopping some countries from warming up to it. Or should I say, some countries may be forced to normalize relations with Israel?
Venezuela restored consular relations with Israel after cutting diplomatic relations in 2009. Traders are sure the move came under American pressure and see Trump going all the way—market jumped to 61c on the news.
#3 Russian Drones
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In Europe, Russian provocations seem to work—the market on NATO to down another Russian drone spiked briefly above 80c on the news that Russia is performing a heavy missile attack on Ukraine.
These heavy attacks are usually when a few rogue drones are sent towards the Baltics, Poland or Romania. However, this time we saw no danger—but the move itself suggests that Russians have succeeded in increasing the level of threat.
#4 Missiles Flying
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Staying in the flight department, North Korea fired its second missile in a span of a week. North Korea has been busy testing its missiles throughout 2026, however now we see an increased cadence.
Traders now give an 89% chance we will see at least one other test this month.
Is North Korea getting ready for something? We doubt it, they are likely projecting power to avoid being attacked.
#5 Luxon Out?
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Lastly, in the faraway New Zealand, Christopher Luxon, the current prime minister, faced another confidence vote in a span of a few months.
At one point traders gave a 64% chance he would be ousted. However, somehow, he managed to cling to power, sending the market back down to 7%. New Zealand has a parliamentary election on November 7th.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.