Good morning! It was a rather quiet week. It’s vacation time and the world moves at a slower pace. Today we have a short update on two wars—Iran and Ukraine. Then we move to the Far East to examine Japan’s economy ahead of an extremely important BoJ decision.
After Japan we take a look at Serbia, where the parliament dissolution seems to be delayed. Lastly, we switch to finance to examine the recent blowup of Situational Awareness.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!
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Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait of Hormuz
Trade Strait of Hormuz Traffic on Stand
It was a relatively quiet week in the Middle East, with little movement on either strikes or deals. With no news in sight, the long-term traffic forecasts remain stable, while short-term markets start to decrease the probability of traffic normalization.
Oil is also stable—both Brent and WTI are below $90 per barrel:
However, this week marks the 60-day MoU deadline. Chances are we might see some news this week.
#2 Another Russian Drone
Trade NATO Downs Another Russian Drone by…? on Stand
It’s the Ukraine war that should be in the headlines now. Over the weekend, we had another Russian drone enter NATO airspace—this time in Romania.
It’s the 5th confirmed airspace breach in just three weeks (we have several more unconfirmed). Chances are this frequency will be sustained or even increased.
#3 Slower Growth in Japan
In macro, Japan surprised traders with its latest GDP growth print. Before the release, traders expected 1.6–2.4% growth but the number came in at just 1.1%.
This print is sure to complicate things for the Bank of Japan—persistent inflation and a weak yen call for a rate hike, while the GDP is cooling down. A rate hike at this moment could further suppress growth.
#4 Serbian Parliament Is Not Dissolving Yet
Trade Serbian Parliament Dissolved by…? on Stand
For our last stop in politics we are taking a look at Serbia. Vucic is expected to call a new election and recently went on TV to give an interview.
He promised to call an election in 15, 20 or 25 days and give a minimum of 45–60 days of campaign time. In Serbia, election calling and parliament dissolution are the same so the interview pushed the end of August market down to a 14% chance.
#5 No New Money?
Trade Situational Awareness Raises New Capital by August 31 on Stand
Lastly, some news from the world of finance. Situational Awareness, the hedge fund that infamously blew up a couple of weeks ago, is unlikely to raise new capital anytime soon.
The fund lost its entire liquid portfolio. In spite of that, it is still up on the year. However, investors are unlikely to commit new capital after serious risk management issues were exposed during the blowup.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.