Good morning! Before we get to a strange, and slightly concerning, NATO air operation around Kaliningrad, we have some updates around the midterms and the Iran war. For the former, we focus on some interesting action in the Michigan Senate race. For the latter, we finally have some news for you!
After NATO, we stay on war topics for one more market as North Korea fired a third missile this month. Lastly, we comment on the yesterday’s meeting between Trump and crypto industry executives, which pushed the Clarity Act market higher.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 El-Sayed in the Lead in Michigan
El Sayed’s victory in the Democratic Primary sent the Michigan midterms market into coin-flip territory—at one point reaching 45/55 before returning to the current 63/37 split:
Trade Michigan Senate Winner on Stand
The gradual rise of El-Sayed (mostly against the polls) is fueled by Nate Silver’s update to FLIPR:
His most recent forecast puts the Democratic candidate slightly ahead of Rogers.
Despite this change, SENR is still up on the day and implies a slight Republican advantage.
#2 The Strait of Hormuz
Trade Strait of Hormuz Traffic on Stand
Moving to Iran, we finally have some news to share—Trump, in one of his usual long-form Truth Social posts, threatened unprecedented economic operation against Iran:
All peace-related markets went slightly down on the news. Whether this is simple posturing, or an indication of deeper issues that have surfaced during negotiations, it means we’ll be waiting a little longer for a deal.
#3 NATO-Russia Military Clash Incoming?
Trade NATO-Russia Military Clash on Stand
The Iran war is not the only one at risk of an escalation. NATO has been conducting heavy air operations around Kaliningrad for 3 days now:
This does not look like a routine publicly announced exercise—a plane like AWACS is in short supply and its deployment means that whatever is happening there is serious.
Traders have been waiting for such a signal for quite some time. All NATO-Russia Military Clash markets spiked on the news—this operation is the first potential confirmation of the longtime suspicion that Russia might be getting ready to expand the war.
#4 North Korea on a Shooting Spree
Trade North Korea Missile Tests on Stand
In the Far East, military action is also driving the news. North Korea fired its third missile this month, resolving the market with 11 days left.
At some point, traders gave as little as a 7% chance we would see 3 or more tests this month. It was a gross miscalculation considering the joint South Korea-America exercise this month.
#5 Good News For the Clarity Act
Trade Clarity Act Signing on Stand
Lastly, some news from US politics. Yesterday, Trump met with several crypto executives and held an open press conference. He teased the upcoming crypto framework, which will be implemented by the CFTC and the SEC regardless of the Clarity Act.
Additionally, he promised that Hyperliquid will come to the US and reiterated that the regulation around prediction markets is with the CFTC, not states.
Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase, also got his 5 minutes, during which he revealed that there’s been hundreds of revision to the Clarity Act, jointly with Democrats—traders saw that as an early indication that the legislation might pass after all. The market is up 4 points.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.