Good morning! We woke up today to find Alaska suddenly looking like a toss up—or maybe even Lean D! We examine the latest developments in the Last Frontier through the Adjacent SENR Index. Then, we move on to the Iran war, which sees more and more posturing ahead of the midterms.
We have one more stop in politics before we move on to other topics—the market on Trump x Greenland deal fell sharply on no news.
Leaving politics behind, we have two markets that caught our attention—the Bitcoin price market (yes, crypto is ripping) and the Apple Foldable iPhone release market, which is getting volatile ahead of the Apple event.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 Alaska Is Slipping Away
We will have more and more coverage on the midterms as the election comes closer. Today we saw a curious movement in the Alaska Senate race—Republicans are down 4 points in a day, making Democrats the favorites to win the seat:
Trade Alaska Senate Winner on Stand
Mary Peltola won the open-party primary, ahead of the incumbent Dan Sullivan. A challenger coming ahead of the two-term Senator is always news. We are now in toss-up territory and pretty soon Alaska could lean D:
However, the voting might have been impacted by the ballot having another candidate named Dan Sullivan, potentially muddying the incumbent’s results.
#2 The Strait of Hormuz
Trade Strait of Hormuz Traffic on Stand
Let’s look at the Iran war now. Iran, in response to the American long-term blockade strategy, is now openly looking to help Democrats win the midterms:
While the account itself is hit-and-miss, this is a viable strategy that has been floated by several experts. The end-of-October market went down on the news—traders still had hopes for a deal in October that have now faded.
Oil is also up on the news with Brent briefly touching $95 a barrel:
Historically, a $100 a barrel was the threshold for deescalation.
#3 No Greenland Deal?
Trade Trump x Greenland Deal on Stand
Before we leave politics behind, one more market. This time we saw a sharp movement on the Trump x Greenland deal market.
For no apparent reason, the odds dropped from 28% to 16%. We believe that the move is connected with the busy schedule in US politics—between the midterms, Iran war, Cuba blockade and a possible escalation in the Ukraine war, there’s simply no time to focus on Greenland now.
#4 Crypto Is Ripping
Moving to finance, Bitcoin rose almost 25% in the last two days, approaching $80,000 per BTC—traders now give a 76% chance we will breach this threshold by the end of the month.
Crypto moved higher on the recent bullish comments on the Clarity Act, combined with the announcement that the Treasury is doubling long-term bond buybacks.
Now the question is whether crypto can sustain the trend into September…
#5 Troubles in Apple?
Trade Apple Foldable Phone on Stand
Lastly, another unexplained move, this time on an Apple-related market—we’ve seen impressive volatility on the foldable iPhone market, which went from 93% to 78%, and back to 90%, all in a single day.
All rumors still put the release of iPhone Ultra being unveiled at Apple’s September event. However, some traders might suspect that supply chain disruptions coming from the Iran war might delay the actual release to the public.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you next week for another Morning Brief!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.