Good morning! Another day passed and we are still unsure what is going on in the Middle East. Heavy kinetic action stopped, but we still have occasional strikes on shipping and Gulf countries. We try to unpack the recent developments in the first two sections.
Then we briefly move on to North Korea, where traders expect possibly 2 missile launches this month—as if we don’t have enough wars. For the last two sections, we switch gears to cover the upcoming election in Sweden and a possible release date of the new Gemini Pro model.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!
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Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
Trade Strait of Hormuz Traffic on Stand
It was a rather calm day in the Middle East. We had no US strikes while Iran hit only a couple of vessels and a base in Kuwait. The strait of Hormuz remains, of course, effectively closed.
Trump continues to push the negotiations narrative, claiming that it’s Iran’s last chance to sign a good deal. Iran still claims no negotiations with the US are taking place.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization markets are flat on the news, while oil is up slightly since yesterday:
#2 SPR Drawdown Continues
Since the strait remains closed, oil must come from somewhere. That somewhere is, among others, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
It currently stands at 304.8 million barrels and traders are sure we will see numbers below 300 million this month. However, they have sharply adjusted the forecast for dropping below 285 million barrels—from 62% to 36%.
The change is fueled by the recent peace narrative—a reduction in kinetic action is usually correlated with increased traffic through the strait (although still well below 60 vessels a day).
#3 Heavy Testing Underway
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Turning our heads towards Asia, prediction market traders see an increased number of North Korean missile tests.
Traders are betting on North Korea to continue the pace—we’ve seen 12 tests so far this year with at least one test each month. North Korea recently said that it is looking to expand its missile and nuclear arsenal.
#4 Sweden Election Seems To Be Already Decided
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Moving away from wars, traders are moving the Sweden election market towards bond territory.
The election will happen on 13 September 2026 and opinion polls have zero doubt about the winning party—the margin of victory is above 10 percentage points. With a month to go, 11% return suddenly looks very attractive. We can expect this market to drift above 90c soon.
#5 Is This The Moment For the Next Gemini Pro?
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Lastly, another update on Google Gemini Pro. Google keeps delaying the launch—this is now the third time traders have priced an imminent release.
While X accounts suggest August 12th as the date, traders are piling on the August 10 market instead. There have been multiple insider cases on AI-related markets. On the other hand, Gemini Pro markets have already seen this movie.
Do you think this time is real? Let us know in the comments.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.