Good morning! It’s been a rather quiet 24 hours in the war department. Today’s top story is the midterms, where a recent poll and a key primary showcased just how difficult the midterms could become for Republicans. We cover the news in the Midterms Tracker.
The Iran war has been surprisingly silent over the last 24 hours, with markets mostly flat. We cover it briefly before turning back to geopolitics—we saw interesting moves on the “UK Q2 GDP growth” market and “US to restrict access to a Chinese AI model” market.
We end today’s brief with a rare culture market. Read on to find out what piqued our interest.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
Midterms Tracker
SENR
After a new poll showing Talarico ahead of Paxton in the Texas US Senate race the market dropped 3c and is now almost in balance—Republicans still lead with 51% chance of getting the seat.
The move contributed to another decline in the SENR index.
HOUSER
We also had a top-two primary in Washington, where Democrats performed better than expected, ensuring that there will be no R-on-R race come November. Traders interpreted it as a signal that Washington can now be a real challenge, pushing WA-05 seat 11.5 cents down and WA-03 seat 6.5c down.
The overall index, however, is flat on the news given Republican gains in NC and AL.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
Trade Strait of Hormuz Traffic on Stand
All the chatter is still about a deal, yet it’s already Thursday and it is nowhere in sight. What we know, however, is that the Hormuz deal between Iran and Oman is a temporary arrangement, during which a permanent solution will be agreed on.
We also know that a US-Iran deal draft is circulating between the diplomats:
Traders are awaiting more developments and for now keep the forecast flat across all strikes. Oil is also stable on the lack of news:
#2 Faster Than Expected
With little war news, we are happy to move on. A couple of days ago, we highlighted an unusual move on the UK annual GDP market. We explained that traders might be front-running a strong Q2 GDP print based on surprisingly resilient growth earlier this year.
Now, we see the same pattern on the main market. Traders now expect a 0.4-0.5% growth q/q, in line with the updated annual forecast.
UK Q2 GDP growth will be released next Wednesday.
#3 Too Good?
Trade US Removes Public Access to a Major Chinese Model on Stand
Now we move to the edge of politics and tech. Recently, we’ve seen a couple new Chinese models that are close to being on par with US frontier models, while costing only a fraction in tokens.
The Trump admin is reportedly reviewing options to ban these models. Traders struggle to price it and the price swings back and forth. On the one hand, the move would hinder US frontier model development and growth. On the other hand, we’ve already seen the protectionist side of Trump.
#4 Not Yet
Trade Gemini Pro Release Date on Stand
In tech, we once again have to return to the Gemini Pro topic. Only a day after the chances of the model’s release on August 10th reached 80%, they are down to 37%.
X posters expect the release imminently, however we still lack any official confirmation. The only known fact is that some people have already tested the model and say it is not a leap forward.
#5 Movie Wars
Trade Movie Opening Week on Stand
Lastly, a bit of culture news. The new Spider-Man movie has spectacular reviews that translated to box office success—traders now are close to seeing it beat Avengers: Doomsday for the biggest opening week.
Of course, the Avengers is not yet released. However, the new Spider-Man has beaten all the expectations since the release.
But can it beat the franchise flagship release? We will find out in a few months.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you tomorrow for another Morning Brief!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.