Good morning! Today we begin with a brief update on the midterms before turning to our usual coverage of the Iran war—the Adjacent index spotted an interesting movement on the Michigan US Senate Race market. On the war front, we cover two markets—updates on the situation in Iran and a recent North Korea missile test, the 10th this year! We stay on the Korean Peninsula to examine why traders suddenly see no chance of ex-president Yoon getting out of jail.
Then we briefly turn our heads to Congress, which failed to vote on Clarity Act before recess. Lastly, we take a look at forecasted release date of the new Astra model from OpenAI.
Let’s take a look at the markets to make sense of the news!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
Midterms Tracker
SENR
Republicans closed the gap after the Democrat Primary in Michigan—El-Sayed is perceived as a weaker general election candidate and he barely won the primary.
SENR is flat on the move, however. The gains for Republicans in Michigan were offset by decreasing Republican odds in Texas.
Main Events Of The Day
#1 The Strait Of Hormuz
Trade Strait of Hormuz Traffic on Stand
The agreement on the Strait of Hormuz is still nowhere to be seen. Additionally, we had an intense night between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis—the latter struck a Saudi-backed militia camp in Yemen, with the reported death toll reaching 58. However, rumors say that Saudis are working behind closed doors to find a diplomatic solution to the Houthi problem.
We also had a couple of strikes in the Persian Gulf, which pushed the traffic normalization markets down a bit. Oil is up slightly since yesterday morning as everyone awaits some good news:
#2 Missiles Flying
Trade North Korea Missile Tests on Stand
The Middle East is not the only region with missiles flying. South Korea reported that yesterday, North Korea fired a short-range missile into the sea.
It’s the 10th such test this year. However, traders are now split and see anything between one and three tests this month as equally likely.
#3 Yoon’s Last Chance
Trade Yoon Out of Custody on Stand
Staying on the Korean peninsula, traders gave the former president Yoon 10% chance of getting out of jail just yesterday. Yoon’s last hope was a pardon on Liberation Day (August 15).
However, early rumors suggest that both Yoon and his wife did not make the pardon list and will remain in jail.
#4 Clarity Act Postponed
Turning our heads towards domestic politics, Congress goes on recess today and Senate Majority Leader Thune failed to schedule a vote on the Clarity Act.
The legislation is now expected to reach the Senate floor in September. However, there are still unresolved issues around the ethics clause. Additionally, more time gives opponents an opportunity to turn more Senators against the bill.
Traders see the postponement as a very bearish signal for the Clarity Act, now giving only a 14% chance it is signed this year.
#5 New OpenAI Model Soon?
Trade Movie Opening Week on Stand
Lastly, some news from the world of AI. Traders now see a 79% chance the new OpenAI model, Astra, is released this month.
Astra made some waves on X after OpenAI announced the model solved multiple open problems across math, physics and computer science:
Do you feel the hype? Or are the current models good enough for daily use already? Let us know in the comments.
Wrap up
That’s all for today!
We will continue to monitor the situation on prediction markets.
Make sure to follow prediction markets live to get fresh information on the conflict. Stay strong and see you next week for another Morning Brief!
Brought to you by Stand
Stand is a prediction market aggregator and the advanced trading terminal of choice for professionals. On Stand, traders discover trends, track traders, copy trade, get whale alerts, automate trades, and so much more.
This is not official investment or life advice. Do your own research. These are only my opinions and I encourage anyone to do their own research before putting any money anywhere.