Welcome to The Adjacent Weekly, your Sunday roundup of everything that moved prediction markets this week and everything worth watching next week.
Last week’s preview had prediction market executives walking into the White House on Wednesday. They did not. At the last minute, the administration narrowed the event to focus on the crypto industry. Prediction markets did get a lot of attention at Thursday’s CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee. Cantor Fitzgerald started brokering Kalshi block trades for roughly 3,000 institutional clients. States continue to block exchanges from offering sports related contracts as Wall Street looks to build out more access to prediction markets.
The Week That Was: August 17-23
#1-The CFTC’s first Innovation Advisory Committee on prediction markets regulation
The inaugural Innovation Advisory Committee lasted over three hours with Kalshi’s Luana Lopes Lara, Polymarket’s Shayne Coplan, Robinhood’s Vlad Tenev, and CME’s Terry Duffy in the same room.
“There’s been 2,500 self certifications since this administration was taking office in January of 2025, of which none have been opposed,” Duffy said. “There’s been a lot of self-certifications around products that are in violation of core principles.”
Selig outlined a three part roadmap for prediction markets:
Addressed the agency’s proposal from June to amend its rules on what event contracts the CFTC could prohibit, noting “gaming” needs to be defined and public interest criteria should be spelled out.
“Contracts are at the risk of rejection based on arbitrary whims of political biases, and DCMs [designated contract markets] have been left operating in the dark,” he said.
Modernize the reporting framework for fully collateralized event contracts.
More amendments on how designated contract markets or DCMs should list event contracts and ensuring they have stronger consumer protection requirements.
#2-White House Cuts Prediction Markets from Wednesday’s Tech Meeting
Last week, Politico had crypto and prediction-market executives meeting with President Trump. A White House official then told reporters the event would focus solely on crypto and will “strengthen America’s innovative and technological dominance” and, separately, that prediction market companies would not be part of it.
Press conference included executives: Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev, Kraken CEO Arjun Sethi, ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, and Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss.
One source told The Block that Trump was "bullish" about getting Clarity done.
The snub landed one day before the CFTC’s inaugural Innovation Advisory Committee, but Trump did call out prediction markets during his speech:
#3-Cantor Fitzgerald launches block trading on Kalshi
Cantor Fitzgerald launched institutional block trading for event contracts as an introducing broker on Kalshi. Susquehanna Predictions will be the pricing and liquidity partner.
Trades will be negotiated at a single price away from Kalshi’s central order book.
Kalshi filed to cut its Block Trade Rebate Program threshold from 100,000 contracts to 50,000 and extended the program to October 1. Sports contracts will not be included in the rebate.
Institutions are focused on climate, weather, and economic indicator markets but have historically been shut out of these markets due to thin order books.
#4-Kalshi Files US500 and Copper Perpetual Futures
Kalshi submitted two perpetual futures for voluntary CFTC review under Regulation 40.3: US500, would track the MerQube US Large Cap Index and COPPERPERP, would reference the Pyth Network XCU/USD feed for the spot price of copper.
Perpetuals, or perps, are a type of futures contract with no fixed expiration and allow investors to bet on the price movement of assets without owning them directly.
The CFTC approved Kalshi’s Bitcoin perpetual in May. CME has a pending suit arguing perpetuals are swaps, not futures.
#5-Florida, Alaska, and Wyoming Primaries
Tuesday did not produce a Wisconsin-style upset in Florida, but did redraw three maps for the general election this fall.
Rep. Byron Donalds won with 47.78% of the votes vs Lt. Gov. Jay Collins at 25.16% and James Fishback at 10.47%, per Decision Desk HQ.
Last week’s Look Ahead flagged polls that had the race closer than the 98% Donalds contract. This time the market was right as Fishback barely captured 10% of the votes, but Politico suggested he may go down as one of the “most influential losers” in recent political history.
Former Rep. David Jolly, a party-switcher, won the nomination for the Democrats.
The big upset of the night was in Florida’s Senate Democrat primary, with Rep. Angie Nixon, a DSA member, beating former NSC aide Alex Vindman.
Alaska Senate: former Rep. Mary Peltola and Sen. Dan Sullivan advanced with Alaska now a key seat for the Democrats.
Wyoming governor, Republican: state Sen. Eric Barlow beat Trump-endorsed state Superintendent Megan Degenfelder.
#6-Kalshi releases calibration study on over 2 million markets
Kalshi Research posted Calibration in Prediction Markets: Theory and Evidence, the full resolved book from 2021 through mid 2026.
2,243,741 markets across eleven categories.
Excluding Exotics, Brier scores fall from 0.08-0.09 at a three month horizon to roughly 0.02 at close.
Naive accuracy, the higher priced side winning, falls between 88.3% to 97.2%.
Forecasts tighten with time, volume, and trader count, but the paper concludes useful signal is produced with about $10,000 of event volume, or 20 traders.
Economics, listed against scheduled statistical releases, calibrate cleaner than Mentions, not hugely surprising.
#7-Kalshi Starts Blocking Access to Sports Event Contracts in Washington
A King County Superior Court judge ordered Kalshi to have IP and residency geofencing in place by August 19, then a multi-source geofencing system by September 2 or face a $120,000 daily fine.
Sports, elections/politics, culture, tech/science, and mentions are closed.
Crypto, climate and weather, commodities, and financials stay.
Existing positions can be closed.
Prediction News@PredictionNews_BREAKING: Kalshi says Washington state has blocked access to several of its markets, including Sports, Elections & Politics, Culture, Tech & Science, and Mentions.
4:12 PM · Aug 20, 2026 · 15.3K Views6 Replies · 10 Reposts · 75 Likes
#8-Researchers find signs of military insider trading on Polymarket
Anit-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) identified more than 150 wallets that may have traded on inside US military information.
152 Orca wallets bet exceptionally well on military and defense markets, making $8 million collectively, with an average win rate of 97.2%.
#9-Seoul blocks Polymarket
Korea Media and Communications Standards Commission ordered ISPs to block the site under the Criminal Act and the National Sports Promotion Act. The commission said decentralization is not an exemption.
#10-Johnson called the House book rigged by foreigners
According to Punchbowl, Speaker Mike Johnson said Republicans will “substantially” increase their majority and that prediction markets showing they lose it “are being swayed by foreigners betting on US elections.”
Prediction Market Stocks: YTD Performance
Regulation and Industry News
Kalshi traders think the bitcoin rally could end the year near current levels
Are sports prediction markets legal? Status of Kalshi and Polymarket in all 50 states - CBS Sports
Hedge funds are about to jump into prediction markets in a big way
Kalshi’s Sixth Circuit Appeal Reflects Trend of Prediction Market
Kalshi off-limits in multiple states as prediction markets, CFTC team up for battle
The Week Ahead: August 24-30
Tuesday, August 25
Thursday-Saturday, August 27-29
Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium
Theme: “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”
Warsh to speak Friday morning.
Prediction Markets to Watch
After a busy summer of primaries, Democrats have a 50/50 shot of winning back the Senate from the Republicans. DSA candidates did well in primary races and the big question now is how they will do this fall vs the Republicans.
There’s been a lot of focus on the battle for Senate so we enjoyed reading Nate Silver’s tour of the 48 key House races.
Rep. Ralph Norman is gaining ground on President Trump’s choice Darline Graham in the upcoming South Carolina Senate runoff.
Warsh described his planned Jackson Hole speech as “like a blank sheet of paper,” offering little insight to traders.
The Index Tracker
SEND closed at 101.97, down -2.36% on the week with the composite implied probability sitting at 52%.
Democrats maintained an edge in the battle for the Senate, but that lead narrowed as gains in Michigan and Alaska were offset by setbacks in Florida and Iowa.
Interview of the Week
Former SIG trader, Andrew Courtney, sat down with the Bet The Process podcast to discuss his views on trading. Needless to say, this guy knows his way around an order book.
Final Word
This week we saw a tail of two tapes. On one side, states continue to view exchange as unlicensed gambling operations and are now enforcing geofences. On the other, Wall Street is treating event contracts as a new institutional asset class with Cantor and SIG offering block trading. The CFTC’s proposed framework will hopefully help clarify the rules of the road and allow for continued innovation in the industry.
Speaking of innovation, the main topic at this week’s Jackson Hole conference will be financial innovation and policy, marking the first time in the event's history to place digital payments and financial technology center stage.
We will be back next Sunday with another roundup. For daily coverage, follow Adjacent Press and the Morning Brief by PROPHET x Adjacent, published every weekday.
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