Adjacent's Look Ahead — Week of August 10, 2026
Utah Hands Kalshi Its First Loss on the Merits, Polymarket Partners with the Yankees, and DraftKings Says Prediction Markets Aren't Cannibalizing Sportsbooks
Welcome to The Adjacent Weekly, our Sunday recap of everything that moved prediction markets this week and everything worth watching next week.
A federal judge in Utah handed Kalshi its first loss on the merits, granting summary judgment to the state and ruling that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt Utah’s gambling laws. The ruling aligns with decisions in Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and the Sixth Circuit. At this point, Judge Menendez’s preliminary injuction blocking Minnesota from enforcing its state ban on prediction markets is looking like an anomaly.
Daniel Wallach summed it up: “With States piling up court wins vs. Kalshi, the over/under on the number of geofenced states by early 2027 is 10. Take the over.”
On the corporate front, Polymarket became the Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Yankees, coming on the heels of Novig’s deal with the Mets last week. DraftKings reported Q2 earnings, showing only 1% customer overlap between its sportsbook and prediction markets. FanDuel shifted its prediction market sports contracts from CME to Crypto.com. Additionally, Polymarket is reportedly in talks to raise $1billion at $20 billion valuation.
The Week That Was - August 3-9
#1 Utah Federal Court Grants Summary Judgment Against Kalshi
U.S. District Judge Robert Shelby ruled that the Commodity Exchange Act does not preempt Utah’s gambling laws as applied to Kalshi’s sports event contracts. This is the first final decision on the merits in favor of a state against Kalshi, not just a preliminary-injunction denial.
The court held that CEA Section 16(e)(2) is the only express preemption provision and that Section 2(a)(1)(A)’s “exclusive jurisdiction” language does not independently preempt state law
“Gambling is gambling no matter what any company calls it.” Offering online gambling in Utah is a third-degree felony - Utah AG Derek Brown
The ruling aligns with decisions in Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and the Sixth Circuit
Kalshi has appealed to the Tenth Circuit and filed for emergency motion for an injunction pending appeal
New York has already cited the Utah decision as supplemental authority in its own litigation
#2 New York Escalation: Subpoenas, Case Transfers, and FDA Market Clash
New York state investigators served Kalshi with document subpoenas, focused on its Sports Product offerings, due August 14. The requests seek trading data for New York consumers (including those under 21), crypto deposit activity, “bets/wagers” marketing language, self-certification records, ownership structure, and related FCM/IB information.
Judge Torres granted New York until August 14 to respond to Kalshi’s federal declaratory action; the state will move to dismiss
The NY AG’s office said it will seek to remand its enforcement case to state court and opposes the CFTC’s consolidation motion
Three SDNY prediction-market cases (CFTC v. New York, New York v. Coinbase, New York v. Gemini Titan) transferred from Judge Marrero to Judge Schofield, expected to delay rulings
NY Governor Kathy Hochul criticized Kalshi’s FDA approval markets: “turning cancer patients into a prop bet” is a line companies should not cross
Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara responded: “This is flat out a lie. The markets are on FDA approvals, which help researchers and investors develop life-saving drugs more effectively and faster.”
#3 Polymarket Becomes Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Yankees
Polymarket announced a partnership with the New York Yankees, including LED branding throughout Yankee Stadium, rotating home plate signage during televised games on YES Network and Prime Video, premium hospitality, and exclusive fan experiences.
This comes seven days after Novig was named the Exclusive Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Mets
Both New York MLB teams have now done deals with prediction market companies, despite the legal mess between Kalshi and the state
This deal may spark a land-grab to partner with MLB teams heading into the postseason, especially with teams in Texas and California where there is no legal sports betting
#4 DraftKings Q2: Low Overlap, Predictions Growing Faster Than Planned
DraftKings reported Q2 results. The company maintained full-year guidance and said it acquired 30% more customers in Q2 than planned. More than 600,000 people have engaged with its Predictions product year-to-date.
DraftKings sees no discernible impact from prediction markets on Sportsbook revenue
Only about 1% customer overlap between its sportsbook and the largest prediction market operator in sportsbook states
DraftKings estimates 80-90% of prediction market consumer volume in sportsbook states comes from professional betting syndicates and institutional traders
“Our Super App is now live nationwide, and Predictions is already growing faster than we anticipated” -CEO Jason Robins
Sports Consumer Volume (including Predictions) was $13.1 billion in Q2, up 15% year-over-year
Revenue decrease driven by customer-friendly sport outcomes and increased promotional reinvestment for new customer acquisition on Sportsbook and Predictions
#5 Flutter/FanDuel Q2: CEO Departure, CME Out, Crypto.com In
Flutter reported Q2 earnings. CEO Peter Jackson will step down at the end of September; Dan Taylor becomes Group CEO in October.
FanDuel Predicts is moving all sports and novelty contracts from CME Group to Crypto.com’s exchange
“We have not had the breadth of content we would have liked through the relationship with CME” -Peter Jackson
Market-making capability expected to deliver $50 million in revenue in 2026
US adjusted EBITDA $119 million, down 70%, ahead of expectations after prediction market investment
Flutter customers placed 220 million bets during the World Cup, generating $3 billion in handle and $300 million in revenue
#6 Polymarket in Talks to Raise At $20 Billion Valuation
Polymarket is in early talks to raise capital at a valuation of more than $20 billion and is seeking roughly $1 billion, according to Bloomberg. The report also said the company previously closed a round at about $15 billion that included D.E. Shaw, which had not been publicly confirmed.
This follows ICE’s $2 billion investment completed in March 2026 at an $8 billion valuation. The remarkable jump from $8B to $20B+ in five months underscores just how explosive the volume growth in prediction markets has been this year.
#7 Kalshi Launches 15-Minute Gold, Silver, and Hourly Temperature Markets
Kalshi introduced 15-minute markets for gold and silver prices, following the success of its 15-minute crypto markets. The crypto 15-minute markets generated $4.75 billion in trading volume last month, with $1.1 billion coming on Bitcoin 15-minute markets alone.
Seven of the top 10 crypto markets on Kalshi are 15-minute markets
Crypto was less than 5% of Kalshi volume earlier this year; now regularly exceeds 20% on any given day
Kalshi also launched hourly temperature markets
Barron’s reports assets with 15-minute markets could eventually include equities like Apple stock
#8 Novig Goes Live Nationwide, Sues New York
Novig completed its transition from a sweepstakes platform to a CFTC-regulated prediction market and is now live nationwide, excluding Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada. The launch includes instant live trading, parlays, and Novig Ranks leaderboards.
The same day, Novig filed suit against the New York State Gaming Commission in the Southern District of New York. Novig argues that a siloed, state-by-state exchange model would destroy the liquidity that makes an exchange viable, after Colorado’s Division of Gaming told the company it could operate a sportsbook but not an exchange.
#9 Michigan Federal Court Denies Coinbase Preliminary Injunction
A federal judge in the Eastern District of Michigan denied Coinbase Financial Markets’ motion for a preliminary injunction against the state. The court rejected Coinbase’s argument that federal law preempts Michigan’s enforcement of its sports-gambling laws against the company’s sports-event contracts.
#10 ForecastEx Self-Certifies Prediction Market Volume Contract
ForecastEx filed paperwork with the CFTC for a “Prediction Market Annual Volume Forecast Contract” that would aggregate notional trading volume across all CFTC-regulated prediction market DCMs. The contract would allow participants to hedge (or bet) on the total volume of the prediction market industry itself.
All major exchanges would be included in the calculation: Kalshi, Rothera, IBKR/ForecastEx, Polymarket, Underdog, Draftkings, Crypto.com, and Gemini.
“I have always said we need prediction markets about prediction markets.”
-Dustin Gouker
Prediction Market Stocks: YTD Performance
Only CBOE is green on the year among the prediction market adjacent stocks. Flutter’s stock decline accelerated after the earnings report and CEO departure announcement. DraftKings held up better after its Q2 results showed minimal cannibalization from prediction markets.
Regulation and Industry News
Utah federal court granted summary judgment against Kalshi, first merits loss for the industry
New York served Kalshi with subpoenas targeting sports products, due August 14
Michigan federal court denied Coinbase preliminary injunction
“Coinbase’s averments are, in a word, applesauce,” U.S. District Judge Shalina Kumar wrote in the ruling.
Mike Selig@ChairmanSeligIf states can impose additional requirements or penalties on exchanges, then we don't have a federal market system in the United States—we have a race to the bottom. The @CFTC will continue to defend its exclusive jurisdiction over commodity derivatives where states attempt to5:00 PM · Aug 5, 2026 · 34.9K Views10 Replies · 15 Reposts · 108 LikesSenate Indian Affairs Committee held roundtable on prediction markets’ impact on tribal governments
Polymarket in talks to raise above $20 billion valuation, seeking ~$1 billion
Polymarket named Official Prediction Market Partner of the New York Yankees
FanDuel Predicts shifting sports contracts from CME to Crypto.com
Novig went live nationwide as CFTC-regulated exchange, excluding AZ, MI, NV
Novig Sues New York 1 day after launching CFTC regulated prediction market exchange
Kalshi launched 15-minute gold and silver markets, hourly temperature markets
Kalshi launched Public Companies Hub aggregating earnings data and KPI forecasts
Kalshi’s MLB 2027 Total Games Market Could Offer Massive Hedging Opportunities
ForecastEx self-certified Prediction Market Annual Volume contract
Polymarket launched 5-minute, 15-minute, and hourly crypto up/down markets
ProphetX partnered with EPICK to integrate prediction markets
Geoff Zochodne@GeoffZochodnePENN Entertainment CEO Jay Snowden said this morning that they are anticipating an “arms race” this football season, with online sportsbooks and prediction markets using a “a very aggressive, irrational” approach to marketing and customer acquisition.
4:37 PM · Aug 6, 2026 · 30.2K Views11 Replies · 3 Reposts · 72 LikesKalshi is hiring a Content Lead for perpetual futures focused on trader education
“The Exchange That Posts Like a Casino” - well-researched piece from Aaron at Resolution Pending on prediction market marketing, fees, resolution failures, and the legal fight
The Week Ahead - August 10-16
Monday
No major data
Tuesday
Primaries: Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, Wisconsin, Alabama
Minnesota and Wisconsin, both with competitive races that could move the midterm indices, will be main focus.
Wednesday
CPI: watch for oil driven upside
Thursday
Friday
Mention Markets on This Week’s Earnings
Prediction Markets to Watch
Fed Sept Rate Decision: After the 9-3 split in July with Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissenting in favor of a hike, any hot CPI print Wednesday could push hike odds higher
Clarity Act: Unlikely to be voted on in the Senate prior to August recess. Polymarket at 22% for signed into law in 2026
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case: Thinly traded but top of mind as circuit split builds
Resolution and Disputes
No major resolution controversies this week. The Trump “de Tocqueville” / John Deere resolution from last week continues to generate discussion, with traders calling it “probably the most embarrassing and antagonistic resolution ever made by a prediction market.”
The Giants vs Angels bond bot rinse from last week also continues to reverberate, with bonders reportedly losing 7 figures when two scores were reported.
The Index Tracker
After this week's primaries, RED closed at 96.17, losing -0.24%. Most of the damage was done in the House races, notably Texas. HOUSER closed at 100.09, down -1.04% for the week with Trump approval ratings at lowest point of second term.
Interview of the Week
Final Word
Friday August 14th is a big day for prediction markets.
That is the deadline for Kalshi to respond to New York’s subpoenas and the deadline for New York to respond to Kalshi’s federal declaratory action. Both filings could shape the next phase of the legal battle.
While the legal drama unfolds, the industry’s rapid growth continues to accelerate—Polymarket partnering with the Yankees and raising at a $20 billion valuation, Novig going nationwide as a CFTC regulated exchange, DraftKings announcing $13billion in quarterly volume and FanDuel switching from CME to Crypto.com. The industry is expanding faster than the courts can constrain it.
We will be back next Sunday with another roundup. For daily coverage, follow Adjacent Press and the Morning Brief by PROPHET x Adjacent, published every weekday.
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