We reported that Kalshi self-certified AIRPORTDELAY
With almost 4m impressions at the time of writing there were 3 types of responses
This is terrible and prediction markets have gone to far (90% of responses)
The Seinfeld episode, the bet and the delay (9% of responses)
This is interesting, novel, unique, etc. (1% of responses)
I found this response curious and in many ways responses potentially did not fully read the certification.
Will <above/below/between/exactly/at least> <percentage> of scheduled <flight category> flights at <airport> be cancelled in <time period>?
Example scenarios that were provided that could use this certification
The fixed total of scheduled flights is 1,200 and the Source Agency classifies 640 of them as cancelled as of the Expiration time. The percentage cancelled is 53.33%, which is greater than or equal to 50.00%.
A blizzard is forecast; airlines pre-emptively cancel 500 of the 1,000 scheduled flights the evening before <time period> begins, and 30 additional scheduled flights are cancelled during <time period> . The percentage cancelled is 53.00%.
<airport> is fully closed for the entirety of and no scheduled flight operates. The percentage cancelled is deemed 100.00%.
An example market could be “Will over 2.5% of flights at EWR be cancelled in the month of August 2026” (EWR saw 2.7% of flights cancelled in 2025, 26% delayed).
This is very different than delays on a specific route or flight.
Dustin Gouker even reports
And while I joke and criticize a lot in this space, there’s absolutely some value here from both a hedging standpoint and a price discovery angle. Flights can undoubtedly impact businesses and financial outcomes in a variety of ways. You could even hedge your vacation. And having a probability associated with how many flights might be canceled is useful information!
Gouker also reports that Kalshi already has contracts similar to these, US flight cancellations for the week ending at 5pm EDT on 7/17 for example. Additionally contracts like Delays and cancellations at JFK Airport on November 13, 2025? and Delays and cancellations at O’Hare Airport on November 13, 2025?
Perhaps the most interesting part of these is the progression (and improvement) to the certifications and settlement criteria.
In 2025 flight delay contracts were certified and markets were listed. Certifications were for specific airports, for example FLIGHTORD for the O’Hare delay market. The contract. The entire certification is below and it is
specific to one airport (ORD)
focuses on the # of delays on a specific date
uses (1) settlement source FlightAware
has no rules around trading prohibitions
no examples around scenarios that would settle yes/no
Kalshi filed a handful of these for various airports like ORD, LAX, JFK. Later an amendment was filed to update rules on various markets.
The current cancellation markets, which are far broader and focus on all US cancelled flights, fall under the ECONSTAT certification which is similarly as short but generalized to just about any economic stat.
The filing of “Will <above/below/between/exactly/at least> <percentage> of scheduled <flight category> flights at <airport> be cancelled in <time period>?” is quite the step up in the fine print of the certifications and can be beneficial once markets begin trading on them.
The new filing linked above is Kalshi moving from the extremely general ECONSTAT and very specific FLIGHTORD and finding a generalized contract for flight cancellations in the middle while also drastically improving the rules and settlement criteria. Likely one of the many things Harrison, Kalshi’s internal agent, is helping with (bloomberg, archive).
The new contract now
covers above/below/between/exactly/at least, any type of value you could think ov
generalized to <flight category> and <airport> allowing for more freedom and potential markets focused just on a given airlines cancellations for example
moved from a specific date to a time period (“this month”, “end of year”, etc.)
included numerous examples for what would resolve a market yes or no and what would be excluded
trading prohibitions are now included
there are now two source agencies a primary and secondary
The primary Source Agency is FlightAware. The secondary Source Agency, applied only if the primary is unavailable or does not publish a usable figure for , is the U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) On-Time.
Regardless of how you feel about the markets that could trade off of this, the improvements to the settlement criteria and rules are very appreciated and welcomed.
Two other things we found interesting
The contract certification is for
FLIGHTDELAYbut the rules are around cancellations not delaysThe certification is categorized under transportation
but related to health in the introduction
