Trader Interview: Mike S. aka Prophet
Finding an edge in Polish election markets and doubling his bankroll
As a long time stock market speculator, I’ve always been a big fan of Jack Schwager’s Market Wizards book series, where each chapter is an interview with a successful trader—all with mind bending performance records. Today we are publishing our first interview with an experienced prediction market trader known as Prophet. We hope this series will help educate new traders as they begin their journey and offer new perspectives for even the most seasoned veteran. If you know a trader we should talk to for the series, send them our way.
Adjacent: How did you first get into prediction markets?
I saw a Polymarket ad on one of the finmeme accounts that were popular when I was looking for an investment banking internship in 2019. I set up an account almost immediately, but then I learned that I needed to pay around $25 in fees to onboard $30 in USDC and resigned. I still use this account, which is probably one of the oldest account still in use:
The idea of trading contracts on various global events instead of stocks/bonds/derivatives was always something that excited me. A couple years later, when I had more money and crypto infrastructure matured, I deployed some capital for fun and then, late in 2023, I started treating it seriously to see if trading global events can be a viable career. Here we are, 2.5y later.
Adjacent: What were you doing at the time?
When I started trading prediction markets seriously I was working in Corporate Development in a major European tech company. Back then, I was doing a lot of deals in Africa and other developing nations. I think that the experience I gained researching the politics and economies of these countries helped me in doing better research for the markets I trade.
Overall, my career revolved around business and finance. Finance and tech are probably the most common background for most traders these days, outside of maybe poker.
Adjacent: What was your very first trade? Did you get it right?
My very first trade was probably some soccer game (I most likely lost money). But the first one I remember is the OceanGate Titan submarine dispute. I remember checking the market and seeing they must find the entire hull, not scraps, and I bought quite a lot of No shares (for my standards back then). The dispute went with “the spirit of the market” instead as they found that the submarine imploded.
Adjacent: Do you have a memorable trade, whether a big win or loss? What was the lesson from it?
I have a couple:
Polish Presidential Election 2025: between the two rounds I made over $10,000, which was more than double my bankroll at the time. Also it’s my biggest win to this day. I had a clear edge as I’m Polish and I saw how other sharps are misallocating how first round voters will vote in the second round.
Iran war: the biggest win should come with the biggest loss. I lost around $6,000 on the event, which was a bit unlucky. Had the initial strike happened a day later, I wouldn’t have lost almost anything as I had a very big position on Khamenei surviving past February.
The main lesson from the Polish election market was to not be afraid to go big when I think I have a big edge. The market was pricing Nawrocki to win at below 20c on the day of the election and I had over half of my bankroll riding on the result—my fair value was around 60c. Nawrocki won, the pollsters and sharps were in fact wrong when they were allocating votes and I got a small proof that I can have a large edge.
The main lesson from the loss was that the most optimal path is not always taken. A few months after the war started we can clearly see it was a mistake. It happens. While the Polish election taught me to go big when I have the edge, the Iran war showed me that sometimes it’s worth it to take profit early and leave a few cents on the table.
Sizing is probably the most difficult skill in prediction markets trading. You need confidence, but also balance.
Bet sizing is arguably one of the most important topics Andrew Courtney wrote a great post on this recently specifically around prediction markets.
Adjacent: What markets do you normally trade; weather, geopolitical, etc? Why?
I mostly trade geopolitics, elections, economics (e.g. Fed rate) and sometimes business (mostly M&A markets).
Geopolitics and politics have been my interests since late middle school and I simply have a vastly better understanding of global affairs than an average person. Elections are a natural extension of that + I know statistics so I can build my models if needed.
Economics is also my interest and it was my minor in college. However, these markets are rarely my focus.
I sometimes trade M&A just because I worked in IB and I know how the process works from the inside—usually there is not enough info in the public space to trade these, but sometimes I see something others missed and take the opportunity.
Adjacent: As prediction markets evolve, what are you most excited about?
Outside of trading, I am mostly excited about the information value. Prediction markets offer the best possible forecast on pretty much everything. I believe they are still massively underutilized and I see a future in which every piece of news will have a market attached to it.
Additionally, I see massive potential in financial products built on top of prediction markets. From indices to loans against your portfolio, the rise of derivatives will bring institutional capital to prediction markets. It will not only help the industry to grow, but also professionalize it in the eyes of the public.
I’m not a fan of the current focus on sports and the gambling crowd, but I guess it is a necessary step to bring in the userbase.
Adjacent: What would you most like to see from platforms / exchanges?
I’d love for them to stop fighting each other through dishonest media campaigns and focus on creating the best possible product, and pushing for proper regulatory frameworks outside of the US.
Adjacent: How has your trading evolved as the market has grown and seen an influx of new traders?
I don’t think it changed much for me. Order books are deeper so I can accumulate or derisk a position faster, but otherwise it’s pretty much the same.
The only “problem” sometimes is missing a good market because there are so many of them that you might simply not see some of them.
Hope you enjoyed our interview with Prophet. You can follow him on Substack at Prophet Notes and be sure to check out his interview with The Oracle from last year.
