Prediction Markets

Launching UPFI

Yesterday we announced the US Political Future Index (UPFI) on X

Sep 23, 2025

Another Kalshi Exchange Halt

and the US-Iran Nuclear Deal Likelihood Index

May 9, 2025

Exploring Kalshi's Exchange Halt

on april 29th Kalshi unexpectedly halted their exchange for an hour

Apr 30, 2025

In Defense of Play Money Markets

markets for experimentation

Mar 5, 2025

Users of Event Markets

crypto bros, forecasters, and tradfi participants

Dec 6, 2024

Ramblings on Event Markets

prediction markets, impact funds, and futarchy

Oct 6, 2024

Notes on Manifest

A festival for forecasting and prediction markets, hosted by Manifold and Manifund.

Jun 11, 2024

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