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11.28.2025 - Peace Through Strength
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Nov 28 • PROPHET - Prediction Markets
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10 things I would do if I lead strategy/product at Polymarket
Feb 9 • Lucas
Ramblings on Event Markets
Oct 6, 2024 • Lucas
In Defense of Play Money Markets
Mar 5 • Lucas
Manifest ~Talk 2025
Jun 29 • Lucas

Prediction Markets

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Launching UPFI
Yesterday we announced the US Political Future Index (UPFI) on X
Sep 23 • Lucas and Doug Crescenzi
Another Kalshi Exchange Halt
and the US-Iran Nuclear Deal Likelihood Index
May 9 • Lucas
Exploring Kalshi's Exchange Halt
on april 29th Kalshi unexpectedly halted their exchange for an hour
Apr 30 • Lucas

Recent posts

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11.27.2025 - No Rest
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Nov 27 • PROPHET - Prediction Markets
11.26.2025 - Peace Games
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Nov 26 • PROPHET - Prediction Markets
11.25.2025 - Information Drought
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Nov 25 • PROPHET - Prediction Markets
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